[ynomrah]

Do some research, pal. You'll see full well that the Smarpthone market overall continues to grow. How could that possibly be? :-) And could it be that it has actually helped Microsoft, Apple, Android and yes even RIM over the last few years? Why? Because some are switching to smartphones. Know three who just bought their first smartphone after carrying around an old NOKIA phone forever. Some may stay on flip phones but where do you think a lot of the smartphone growth in emerging markets is coming from? Wax string and tin cans?

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/M...d-a47c38e3ae3c

Here's an old chart for the US. Now imagine the same trend in other markets around the globe

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...n-u-s-by-2011/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...feature-phones



The majority of BlackBerry users are consumers and it has been that way for years.

Are you intending to imply that bb10 will completely scoop the remaining untapped smartphone market by itself? Cause if so then let me put some things in perspective for you.

a) brand new smartphone owners typically want a cheap or near free smartphone. It is unlikely bb10 will offer a cost effective device in a timely manner. These customers are on a budget and usually are content with a decent mid to low range smartphone that can still perform the functions they would expect from a smartphone. Most customers in this segment generally lean in the direction of Android due to the ecosystem and choices.

b) the other new smartphone owners typically go for devices that have been recommended by friends/family or have been otherwise recognized as a good/popular device via the media. This is because they don't usually try new things often--obviously, and would want said product to be widely used and have longevity. Thus again making it unlikely that most new smartphone owners would go for bb10 without a high recommendation (which you would be hard pressed to find within a salesperson).

c. The market is saturated with devices and other manufacturers are still making new devices year round. Not to mention new platforms all over the place.

I personally don't see any trend that would indicate anything otherwise for non smartphone owners. That segment of the market is Definitely not in RIMs favor. RIM can definitely grab some sales, don't have me mistaken, I just don't see it as simple for then as you make it to be. In addition, If RIM manages to sell 18 million by years end, I hope the profit they manage isn't only a few cents worth.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I717 using Tapatalk 2

[RubberChicken76]

RIM can definitely grab some sales, don't have me mistaken, I just don't see it as simple for then as you make it to be. In addition, If RIM manages to sell 18 million by years end, I hope the profit they manage isn't only a few cents worth.

Don't have me mistaken either. We're saying the same thing.

I just have issues with authors like the original one listed because he essentially implies that the only way BlackBerry 10 will have customers is if RIM convinces people to throw down their iPhones and Androids. If this were a flat, mature market, fine. But it's not a 'flat mature market'. It's still a heavy growth market.

RIM's first area of success will be getting upgrade customers.

[bk1022]

You can't imagine how many of these "parents and grandparents" ask me (although I've never had an iPhone) to help them with their iPhone to do the simpliest things like attach a photo to an email, send an email or see an attached photo. Their children would insist they buy an iPhone when they change their phone, but then they just can't use it...
I'm speaking about what I've seen my self in my social surrounding.

Without a doubt, iPhones are the best match for IT ignoramuses. This is what revolutionized the industry: anyone from womb to grave could figure out a smartphone. Regardless, now the average consumer can move beyond Apple's iOS if they wanted to, but do they? Do they really? It is up to RIM to compel someone to migrate, but what is the compelling reason they are offering? Price? Performance? Ecosystem? I dunno. Their marketing machine can only be described as being in a coma right now.

At the end of the day, I don't really care how sweet the UI is -- it is really only a marginal improvement to the overall experience. I will agree that I really like the gesture interface on the Playbook, and for $129, maybe that could compel someone to buy one (if they shipped it with a $#%@ rapid charger!!!) But when you are talking about a 3yr or $500+ commitment to a smartphone, that's an entirely different story. As an example of esoterica, before I bought my SG3, I was confident I could download a good, free -- and ad-free -- SSH client sight-unseen. I found a great push IMAP client no problem, and I wasn't worried I couldn't.

Will the BB10 ecosystem be rich enough to allay people's concerns? If you ask me, RIM doesn't need to spend one dollar on traditional advertising (hyperbole.) What they need is to spend a billion dollars developing relationships with developers and consumers -- not something Canadian companies are known for.

[HartfordWhalers]

In my enterprise corporate world, people see the device and will want one

[austriker]

Its so frustrating how narrow minded people are when you tell them about the great features of bb10 and they cant form a real response besides "blackberrys suck"

Now the problem is that these people are consumers. And rimm needs to win them over. If only a great product would sell itself; it doesnt. Not all consumers are educated and knowledgeable, most feed from the media and peers..

Which as much as BB10 looks amazing unfortunately will be tougher than eating nails. Gosh Go rim go, I cant wait for bb10 but hope the marketing and general media/people bias against them turns

[TomJasper]

BB10 will take number 2 spot within 24-36 mths.

Signed
Analyst Tom Jasper

[THBW]

In my own opinion, you're missing a couple of things:

1) There's a bunch of enterprise customers who are currently on BES, and would like to move to BYOD. The path of least resistance for this is to upgrade to Mobile Fusion and/or BES10. Once they've done this, they'll find that BB10 is the best device because of how seamlessly Balance is integrated.

2) At the risk of sounding like a mindless fanboi, BB10 actually does have some distinctions, and some of them are obvious enough to win people over. As trivial as a virtual keyboard might sound, it's a key interface element and the BB10 kb is good enough--and distinctive enough--to win people over. The screen resolution is better than Apple's highly touted "Retina" displays. And the Active Frames feature is a much more effective way of switching apps and shutting them down than iOS can offer.

What I think is going to happen is that the enthusiast community will be the first buyers, along with key enterprise customers. That will get enough handsets out there for those early customers to spread the word. And it will be their word of mouth that will start convincing the non-enthusiast market.

Yup, I would agree with your comments. BB10 has many distinctions and on a comparative basis, it looks decidedly superior to Apple/iOS. Strong BB10 elements include: balance, peak, flow, screen, browser, NFC, and BBM-like messenger. The only thing I think Apple can claim as a strength is their App selection. If RIM can get 125K-150K Apps into their store of sufficient quality, I think this advantage pretty much melts away. I'm also a firm believer that RIM also has two or three surprises waiting for us. This is what will drive marketing excitement outside their core users. Interesting times.

[magutwit]

balance,[/U] peak, flow, screen, browser, NFC, and BBM-like messenger. .

Take off the balance since everybody here insists that it won't be available to regular users without BES. Just like I said : it's a pity to have something exclusive and not to offer it to users to get more appeal.

[seluje]

"If RIM builds it, they will come". Once we all see the phones on the market, there will be a lot of switching between manufacturers. Yes, it is hard to speculate before the devices are available. Nobody can predict how the BB10 will do on the market. Let's hope it goes well.

[MADBRADNYC]

RIM's Next BlackBerry Looks Great, But It'll Take A Miracle To Make People Care

I care. That's all that matters to me.
The decision is mine to make. Mine only.
I vote with my wallet and BB10 gets my vote!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

In my enterprise corporate world, people see the device and will want one

There is a difference in wanting one, and your company making the decision to support BB10. Our company is not ready to invest in the new Platform just yet, they are indicating it will be at least 6 months. I imagine that is not unusual for both enterprise and government agencies that have to make sure they are wisely spending their limited budgets.

[jimpilot]

The key is going to be dev support. And nothing brings devs to the game like a large client base. IMO early sales and reviews will decide RIMMs future.

So I have to think the first 6 months will be the ball game.

[jimpilot]

There is a difference in wanting one, and your company making the decision to support BB10. Our company is not ready to invest in the new Platform just yet, they are indicating it will be at least 6 months. I imagine that is not unusual for both enterprise and government agencies that have to make sure they are wisely spending their limited budgets.

One thing I am not sure of. If your company supports I-phones etc. via active sync won't users be able to get company email and calendar the same way on BB10?

[elmit22]

122,000+ is the rumored app count to date. Apps should not be the issue.

IMO, there are now only 2 remaining hurdles for RIM. The first is a good marketing strategy, second is media support. One they are in control over, the other they are not.

i know the BB10 needs this amount of apps at launch to be a success. but how many of these apps will be downloaded? not many,

[sinsin07]

Do some research, pal. You'll see full well that the Smarpthone market overall continues to grow. How could that possibly be? :-) And could it be that it has actually helped Microsoft, Apple, Android and yes even RIM over the last few years? Why? Because some are switching to smartphones. Know three who just bought their first smartphone after carrying around an old NOKIA phone forever. Some may stay on flip phones but where do you think a lot of the smartphone growth in emerging markets is coming from? Wax string and tin cans?

Global smartphone market to hit value of $1.6 trillion by 2018
Here's an old chart for the US. Now imagine the same trend in other markets around the globe
Smartphones to Overtake Feature Phones in U.S. by 2011 | Nielsen Wire
Feature phones dwindle as Android powers ahead in third quarter | Technology | guardian.co.uk

This response has nothing to do with my comment. There was no denial of smartphone market growth. If you need clarification see post #51.

majority of BlackBerry users are consumers and it has been that way for years.

Because you say it does not make it true. I see links above for your attempt at a rebuttal, but none here.

[Jonesy1966]

Sorry, but I just can't take anything from Yahoo! seriously when it comes to anything RIM related. Yahoo!, rather un-journalistically, has picked sides in a fight where there shouldn't be a fight or even sides. They're just there for Marissa Meyer's bidding these days, her and her rather massive hate-on for all things BlackBerry.

[Ishani Priyadarshini]

I am just saying, I love my BB Torch, and it's a couple of years old, I will obviously check the Z10 out, only thing, HURRY UP! When we talk of loyalty.. Remember RIM has loyals too! So we'll all buy one, and those "intrigued" by all the talk about BBM will buy one... etc etc etc.

[Ray III]

You can't imagine how many of these "parents and grandparents" ask me (although I've never had an iPhone) to help them with their iPhone to do the simpliest things like attach a photo to an email, send an email or see an attached photo. Their children would insist they buy an iPhone when they change their phone, but then they just can't use it...
I'm speaking about what I've seen my self in my social surrounding.

My dad just got an iPhone and is always telling about how superior it is even though he has never used anything else. One day I texted him a link to a YouTube video which was so long it came through in 2 messages and he could not poke it and have the video come up. I told him to just copy&paste both halves into his memopad, remove the (1/2) etc. and join them together then copy&paste into his browser. Well, that lost him. I then took the phone from him and tried it myself. After 5 minutes I was still baffled, and I'm pretty tech savvy. This simple operation takes mere seconds for me to perform on my antiquated OS6 BlackBerry. (As does typing this response with proper grammar, capitalization, and punctuation.)

[calicocat2010]

My dad just got an iPhone and is always telling about how superior it is even though he has never used anything else. One day I texted him a link to a YouTube video which was so long it came through in 2 messages and he could not poke it and have the video come up. I told him to just copy&paste both halves into his memopad, remove the (1/2) etc. and join them together then copy&paste into his browser. Well, that lost him. I then took the phone from him and tried it myself. After 5 minutes I was still baffled, and I'm pretty tech savvy. This simple operation takes mere seconds for me to perform on my antiquated OS6 BlackBerry. (As does typing this response with proper grammar, capitalization, and punctuation.)

So what did your Dad think when he saw what you could do Better on your BB?

[scorpiodsu]

I actually don't see the author bashing RIM or anything. I think they are making an honest assessment. Regretfully, I sort of agree. Recently, it seems that it matter less how good the OS or device is because it's very hard to take away from iOS and Android. And sure the smartphone market is growing and that's opportunitiy for RIM but it's also opportunity for iOS and Android to get those users as well. And I think we've seen that just because your product doesn't sell doesn't mean it's not good and vice versa. I do think it's going to be difficult for RIM to penetrate the mainstream market again and grab a share that actually matters. Many BB users that don't buy the "ecosystem" argument are not considering BBM is a reason why they stayed with BB. But other than that those users haven't really had a robust ecosystem so those users are clouded in their judgement of the importance of apps and services by 1 provider. Having said this, I want RIM to be successful. I want more competition so we get better devices and services. It's going to be difficult. Consumers are fickle but most are also more likely to use something many others are using than try something new. So RIM will need to do a lit of convincing. I think it's possible though. Just whether it's probable is a different story.

[brmiller1976]

6.9 million people last quarter "cared" enough to purchase a BB7 device.

RIM will be fine.

The real question in my mind is where the next generation of innovation in mobile user experience is coming from.

Lots of people I know who were "iPhone people" or "Android people" for a long time are getting restless. They're asking me "what else is out there?" and "iOS is boring." They want to see what potential exists in other systems.

iOS is old and tired. Its form factor is pretty much laid out and there's nothing new on the table for the last three revisions.

Android is still buggy, fragmented, laggy and crash-prone. Even quad-core phones with oodles of RAM haven't solved the numerous stability and quality issues there.

WP is new, fresh and innovative -- but held back by Microsoft's lack of carrier reach and excessively high pricing. Nokia and HTC have missed the prepaid wave entirely, which is a huge source of revenue for RIM (as well as the Android handset makers).

RIM has a decent base of users to start from, plus a new proposition. If they can bring the innovation back to the forefront, the market will give them a chance.

[Shanerredflag]

From Forbes.com today....this won't hurt BB10's chances:

Is Apple's iPhone No Longer Cool To Teens? - Forbes

[Tre Lawrence]

6.9 million people last quarter "cared" enough to purchase a BB7 device.

RIM will be fine.

The real question in my mind is where the next generation of innovation in mobile user experience is coming from.

Lots of people I know who were "iPhone people" or "Android people" for a long time are getting restless. They're asking me "what else is out there?" and "iOS is boring." They want to see what potential exists in other systems.

iOS is old and tired. Its form factor is pretty much laid out and there's nothing new on the table for the last three revisions.

Android is still buggy, fragmented, laggy and crash-prone. Even quad-core phones with oodles of RAM haven't solved the numerous stability and quality issues there.

WP is new, fresh and innovative -- but held back by Microsoft's lack of carrier reach and excessively high pricing. Nokia and HTC have missed the prepaid wave entirely, which is a huge source of revenue for RIM (as well as the Android handset makers).

RIM has a decent base of users to start from, plus a new proposition. If they can bring the innovation back to the forefront, the market will give them a chance.

Ah... basically, everyone else sucks, and RIM will moonwalk to the top? Hopefully, RIM is a bit more desperate. Desperation yields success.

[Ray III]

So what did your Dad think when he saw what you could do Better on your BB?

Honestly, I don't think he cares. Some people are content to have a phone that you poke at like a trained monkey. Me, I like having navigation buttons and menus because I'm a power user.

[sectionsix]

Unfortunately computer software is not optimized for big fingers and small screens.

With the Ubuntu phone it will convert to a full desktop computer once it "docked" afaik. So you could supply your own keyboard, mouse, and monitor. It's similar to running a Linux desktop from a thumb drive.