[yunvi]

and according to Mr. Watsa in the post below, 5 years is what it might take.

I guess thinking of it merely in terms of when people's contracts will expire and leave those sweet bb10 phones and brand new contracts ripe for the taking.. in that sort of time frame, RIM *will* be reaping the fruits of their labour..

RIM turnaround could take three to five years, says Fairfax CEO | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

[SK122387]

3-5 years sounds about right, considering we are now 5 years after the launch of the iPhone and Android. And look what has happened for both of those in ...3-5 years.

[kill_9]

3-5 years sounds about right, considering we are now 5 years after the launch of the iPhone and Android. And look what has happened for both of those in ...3-5 years.

If the turnaround takes 3 years I fear Research In Motion will already be a walking corpse. Make no mistake this is not the time for 3-5 year plans. Look what happened the last time management lingered for 5 years...the situation the company faces today is the outcome of that failed 5-year plan or lack thereof. A major overhaul of management and refocus on exceptional products and service delivery is the only way to rebuild the reputation of Research In Motion. As the saying goes you can dress-up a pig but it is still a pig and destined for the slaughterhouse. My prediction is Research In Motion will be bought by a wireless carrier or consortium of wireless carriers principally for its secure messaging infrastructure and the remnants of RIM will simply be a software house leveraging QNX across a variety of industries while maintaining its a large patent portfolio.

[Foreverup]

If it takes 3-5 years and QNX brings what everyone expects, Blackberry falls into the category of Linux.

A niche product that loyalists and geeks love but gets a blank stare from normal people when you bring them up.


Oh wait.....

[yunvi]

If the turnaround takes 3 years I fear Research In Motion will already be a walking corpse. Make no mistake this is not the time for 3-5 year plans. Look what happened the last time management lingered for 5 years...

this wont be them lingering though. they;ve been actively trying to get their marketing game right, and then again, there's only so much they could do.

they're talking about launching after back to school. carriers usually give all sorts of sweet deals in contracts for those "back to school" savings, and rim's going to miss out on that. I dont think they will be getting too many folks signing on to brand new contracts with a bb7 powered device.

this turn around wont happen in a day..

[cgk]

3-5 years sounds about right, considering we are now 5 years after the launch of the iPhone and Android. And look what has happened for both of those in ...3-5 years.

Except... so far no mobile company (or the mobile aspect of a business that does other things) that has ever made a quarterly lose has ever come back, none - they either go out of business or are bought up.

I don't think Nokia is going to make it so it will be interesting to see if RIM are the company who can prove that theory wrong.

[Economist101]

this wont be them lingering though. they;ve been actively trying to get their marketing game right, and then again, there's only so much they could do.

I think if RIM knew how to fix their marketing they would've done it by now.

Except... so far no mobile company (or the mobile aspect of a business that does other things) that has ever made a quarterly lose has ever come back, none - they either go out of business or are bought up.

I don't think Nokia is going to make it so it will be interesting to see if RIM are the company who can prove that theory wrong.

Exactly. This has proven to be a very difficult historical fact to overcome.

[mithrazor]

Except... so far no mobile company (or the mobile aspect of a business that does other things) that has ever made a quarterly lose has ever come back, none - they either go out of business or are bought up.

I don't think Nokia is going to make it so it will be interesting to see if RIM are the company who can prove that theory wrong.

So far there have only been two mobile companies that seemed to have went down since they were at the top.

[cgk]

Two? eh? from the article:

Here is a list companies that have “hit the rocks” in terms of mobile phone profitability and their fates (in no particular order).

Alcatel of France. Sold its brand and operations to TCL Communications of China in 2004.
Siemens of Germany. Exited in 2005 through acquisition by BenQ of Taiwan.
BenQ of Taiwan. Mobile devices division declared bankruptcy in 2006.
Ericsson of Sweden. Exited by merging with Sony in 2001 even though third in volume share the prior year.
Sony of Japan. Joined with Ericsson to form Sony Ericsson in 2001. Held less than 1% share prior to merger.
Motorola of the United States. Even though once the largest vendors, after a period of severe distress, Motorola spun off Motorola Mobility. Market value shows long-term viability still a concern, being bought by google.
Casio of Japan. Merged with NEC and Hitachi in 2010.
NEC of Japan. Merged phone units with Casio and Hitachi in 2010.
Hitachi of Japan. Merged phone units with NEC and Casio in 2010.
Fujitsu of Japan. Merged with Toshiba in 2010. Held 15 percent of Japanese market prior to merger.
Toshiba of Japan. Merged with Fujitsu in 2010. Held 4% share in Japan.
Palm of the United States. Sold to HP in 2010.
Handspring of the United States. Sold to Palm in 2003.

[SK122387]

If the turnaround takes 3 years I fear Research In Motion will already be a walking corpse. Make no mistake this is not the time for 3-5 year plans. Look what happened the last time management lingered for 5 years...the situation the company faces today is the outcome of that failed 5-year plan or lack thereof. A major overhaul of management and refocus on exceptional products and service delivery is the only way to rebuild the reputation of Research In Motion. As the saying goes you can dress-up a pig but it is still a pig and destined for the slaughterhouse. My prediction is Research In Motion will be bought by a wireless carrier or consortium of wireless carriers principally for its secure messaging infrastructure and the remnants of RIM will simply be a software house leveraging QNX across a variety of industries while maintaining its a large patent portfolio.

I guess it depends what your definition of a turnaround, and that of Mr. Watsa's, is. I don't think RIM will ever be the king of the smartphone world like it once was, and Apple now is. The biggest gripes that people have about BlackBerrys are the lack of apps and that's really about it. I've said it before--the average user doesn't say things like "The BlackBerry OS is so outdated." They say things like "Does BlackBerry have Instagram or Draw Something?"

If RIM spent less money on things like NIGHT BIKES commercials and more money on paying developers like Zynga and Burbn to bring their apps to BB10, even a half-a$$ed commercial showing that a BB10 phone can Instagram (Burbn) and play Words With Friends (Zynga) and then "share" their scores or whatever on BBM would probably do wonders in getting people back on board with BlackBerry.

Let's not forget that RIM had a stronghold on mobile email and instant messaging, long before the iPhone and Android were even around. Emoji is huge on iOS, and BBM, along with AIM and MSN Messenger, were some of the first IM clients to implement smileys of any kind. iMessage, as awful as it is (I have it on my iPod touch), is a blatant attempt at satisfying peoples BBM needs. I hate to generalize, but much of today's "youth" (you know, the market RIM lost), doesn't like to pick up the phone and place a call--they'd rather text or IM.

One of the things that most people I know who have switched from BlackBerry miss is BBM. There are some people that say "BBM is dead." And yeah, it probably isn't as big as it once was (in the U.S., at least), and obviously that means people have left their BlackBerrys. But why? Not because BBM isn't important. But because people's seemingly inherent need to post a picture every meal on Instagram is more important.

I've said it all along. RIM is really only a 12megapixel camera, about FIVE big names apps, and some good marketing away from being back in the game.

[mdarscott]

Prem Watsa is a whole lot smarter than the bunch of us. If he is investing in RIM, it gives me confidence.

What Watsa sees:
2.1 Billion cash
No debt
4.2 Billion quarterly revenues
77 million user base and growing
A whole lot of talent and know-how

RIM may never wrest control of the consumer smartphone market back from Apple but these are the ingredients for doing something interesting.

[Rootbrian]

Prem Watsa is a whole lot smarter than the bunch of us. If he is investing in RIM, it gives me confidence.

What Watsa sees:
2.1 Billion cash
No debt
4.2 Billion quarterly revenues
77 million user base and growing
A whole lot of talent and know-how

RIM may never wrest control of the consumer smartphone market back from Apple but these are the ingredients for doing something interesting.

And despite the other posters saying that RIM is dying or is going to be bought out or sold, these figures prove them wrong.

[BB10FTW]

I will settle this once and for all!

RIM will be just fine.........feel better?

[Economist101]

One of the things that most people I know who have switched from BlackBerry miss is BBM.

No doubt, but this being true doesn't do a thing for RIM unless those people miss it enough to buy another RIM product. And let's not forget, RIM could've tapped into BBM as a sales driver for the PlayBook, but for whatever reason has not.

I've said it all along. RIM is really only a 12megapixel camera, about FIVE big names apps, and some good marketing away from being back in the game.

If the above is true, why not just add the camera, the big name apps and the marketing? I mean, what are they waiting for, if it's as easy as this line suggests?

[Mystic205]

despite the fact that this is yet another self improtant internet expert, the comment seems fair.. and not rocket science either... it took rim that long, it took apple that long and it took android that long.

[Geeoff]

If we take the buyout of QNX as their starting point then this seems about right to me.

Playbook was their first try at QNX. They are working on releasing BB10 in the next few months. Then it will take another year to work out the bugs and make sure that the key apps are on board. Lastly, arrange some licensing deals in the same style as Android, but without the same mistakes (e.g. the cesspool of apps). And then in two to three years they can reap the profits of BBM and their proprietary network!!

[wellred]

I really wish they would launch not only a slab TS phone but also one with a QWERTY. At least then both camps would be happy. As for apps purchased now will I be able to use them on BB10 or update them to a newer version?

[sleepngbear]

despite the fact that this is yet another self improtant internet expert, the comment seems fair.. and not rocket science either... it took rim that long, it took apple that long and it took android that long.

This guy is far from just another internet expert. He runs a holding company that owns more than 5% of RIM's stock. Obviously he'll want to maintain a somewhat positive tone in that position, but for the first time we've got someone reputable at least giving the company a chance at regaining some degree of success. The timetable makes sense. It took four years for the mistakes of Sr Management to manifest themselves in the stock price, so it stands to reason that it will take that or longer to reverse the negative trends and return to being competitive.

[wellred]

The timetable makes sense but people are talking as if it's a forgone conclusion and that the product WILL deliver. We are yet to see anything yet let alone something capable of competing against the competition. Hopefully we will have a better idea come next week.

[Superfly_FR]

If "turnaround" means being solidly back in the top 3 manufacturers, then I guess 5 years is a good time frame (may append before, but probably temporarily) . If it means "being back in business and make big profits again", then I think it may be closer to 3 and even before if Mobile Fusion gets massively adopted in companies (love RIM level of security, urged to accept the CEO and marketing team toy(s)).

[psufan32]

RIM needs to ask themselves some hard questions if they want to exist as a standalone company in 5 years time.

1) Who is our customer base? Is that base growing, shrinking, or stagnant?

2) Where is mobile technology today as a sector, and where is it going? Where do we fit into the sector now, and are we positioned to take advantage of where the sector will be moving?

RIM needs to, first, make a splash to gain attention, and second, figure out how to grow revenue outside of their current user base/products. RIM has operated with the mindset that mobile handset makers had 10 years ago: make a phone that looks cool so that customers who walk into the store will choose yours because of the "cool" factor. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. Smartphones today are mini-computers/all-inclusive electronic devices. There needs to be more there to differentiate their product other than it looks "cool" and "we think physical keyboards are neat".

In other words, RIM needs to be more than just a handset manufacturer with their own OS. How do they do that? That's the question.

[SK122387]

No doubt, but this being true doesn't do a thing for RIM unless those people miss it enough to buy another RIM product. And let's not forget, RIM could've tapped into BBM as a sales driver for the PlayBook, but for whatever reason has not.



If the above is true, why not just add the camera, the big name apps and the marketing? I mean, what are they waiting for, if it's as easy as this line suggests?

I think it's been "reported" that RIM had trouble putting native BBM on the PlayBook, which is why the only way we can use it is if our BlackBerrys are Bridged.

I have no idea what they're waiting for, in regards to the camera, apps and marketing. The camera on my Bold 9780 from Nov. 2010 has a better camera than my 9900 that I got in Aug. 2011. What was RIM doing about their camera situation during all that time? Did RIM think that a 5megapixel camera was going to be acceptable forever? One that LACKS the autofocus that previous models have, on their flagship? It is for me. But I'm in the minority. 8megapixel cameras are now the standard, with some overachievers by HTC using a 12megapixel one. I'd be incredibly happy with an 8megapixel one from RIM, but again, it would be a catch-up move, when 12megapixel ones do exist in super thin HTC phones (I still don't buy RIM's line of sacrificing the autofocus in the 9900's camera in the name of keeping the phone thin).

For the big name apps.. it's too late for BB7 to get any big name apps. Again, like the camera situation, I'm perfectly happy with the apps RIM has to offer for my 9900 and 9810. I can't imagine playing Angry Birds or watching a movie on my Bold. It's just not what I use my PHONE for. But RIM is slowly but surely bringing the big name apps or at least the developers over to BB10, as evidenced by EA Games, PopCap, Rovio, etc. all having multiple titles on the PlayBook. For the PlayBook being a "failure," you'd think Rovio might not care to launch Angry Birds Space almost exactly one month after iOS and Android. But they did. RIM appears to be really courting app developers, making it easy for them...but throwing some money at Netflix and Microsoft to get Skype couldn't hurt. Even if it's a lot of money. Like the way Sprint paid Apple to get the iPhone.

And as far as marketing goes, I don't know what RIM's problem is with making commercials that show the usefulness of their devices. I feel like just how RIM never thought the iPhone would be a threat, they never thought they'd have to advertise their product, because people just *know* what BlackBerry is. That may have been true. But I don't want someone who had a Curve 8300 or 8520 to think that the 9900 is the same thing. It's not. But do commercials about cupcakes and DJs talking about their 9900 show that? NOPE. Where are the commercials showing Wikitude? Or the NFC capabilities like NFC tags and sharing pictures and adding BBM contacts by tapping your Bold to another? Or even showing stuff like Shazam or Pandora or Spotify... plenty of people don't even know BlackBerry OFFERS those apps. RIM's marketing has gotten a little better...but only because BlackBerry commercials and radio spots are more abundant now. Before it was almost nothing, which does ..nothing.. for sales or interest in phones that many perceive to be "old." I mean, if you had a Pearl with its gunked up trackball and old web browser, would you even consider a new Bold if you don't know what it does??

[lnichols]

BB10 will not be an overnight success. Even if everyone wanted one, you have to deal with contracts periods ending, and general build up of sales. Heck it will probably take almost a full two to three years just for the possibility of getting the current BB base in the US the opportunity to migrate to the BB10 device (unless RIM can work out an Apple style early upgrade deal for existing BB user with the carriers, which would be a smart idea IMHO). They need to get a upward trend started, and grow marketshare and mindshare. They also need to make sure the continue to innovate and keep up with the specs on the phones. Being complacent is what got them into this mess.

[ptpete]

I'm of the opinion that is BB10 doesn't have a minor bang this year and strong uptake next year, RIM is will not make 3 or 5 years.

This is the last chance and has to be real good execution.

[Rootbrian]

Ptpete, it is not rim's last chance. They aren't going under, being bought or off, or going bankrupt if they don't sell BB10 devices which are in the distance still being developed.

Like my grandmother said, never count your chickens before they hatch (or assume before it happens).