[TRlPPlN]

RIM's down in U.S., but future is brighter elsewhere - Computerworld

Overseas users like BlackBerry Messenger, new phones appeal to youth in Europe, Asia, Africa.

By Matt Hamblen

Computerworld - There's little doubt Research in Motion faces problems, especially as its share of the global smartphone market shrinks and doubts emerge from some traditional enterprise users of BlackBerry who felt burned by a recent network outage.

But the picture for RIM isn't all dreary, especially outside of North America where RIM's BlackBerry Messenger instant messenger service is popular and where the company is drawing in young users to a wide range of new BlackBerry smartphones.

One U.K.-based analyst blamed bad press for at least part of the company's U.S. problems. RIM "continues to face unfavorable press" in the U.S., said Canalys analyst Tim Shepherd.

Ramon Llamas, an analyst at IDC, said the perceptions of bad press toward RIM stem mainly from stories about U.S. and Canadian concerns about the dual CEO structure.

"I don't really see a lot of bad press about RIM," Llamas said. "What I do see more commonly are companies saying, 'We've had BlackBerry for a while and we're ready to move onto something new.' The BlackBerry outage was the final straw for some of them."

Llamas added that RIM's North American problems can also be traced to stronger competition from Apple's iPhone and Android-based smartphones than in other parts of the world.

Also, he said, RIM has saturated all of the North America carriers with products for years, but is still a newcomer to carriers in emerging African and Asian markets. Carriers in those countries can introduce BlackBerry smartphones as something new, different and exciting, he said.

Both Canalys and IDC this week reported that BlackBerry's market share declined sharply worldwide in the third quarter.

IDC on Thursday reported that RIM's smartphone market share dropped from 15% globally in the third quarter of 2010 to 10% in the third quarter of 2011. At the same time, IDC said shipments of RIM smartphones fell from 12.4 million to 11.8 million smartphones during the same period.

Meanwhile, Samsung became the top worldwide smartphone vendor in the third quarter.

"RIM's market share has fallen below 10% for the first time and the current outlook for it in the U.S. is certainly bleak," Shepherd wrote. "RIM must deliver a competitive high-end 4G smartphone in early 2012."

Shepherd noted that RIM shipments dropped by 58% year-over-year in North America, while the U.S. market share dropped from 24% in third quarter 2010 to just 9% in third quarter 2011.

RIM's refreshed product line with the BlackBerry Bold 9900 didn't help in the quarter, he noted.

Despite RIM's lassitude in North America, Shepherd said "the picture for RIM in other parts of the world is clearly more positive."

He said RIM shipments grew more than 50% over a year ago in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific largely because of the "continued popularity" of its BlackBerry Messenger service.

Even the widespread outage isn't perceived as that devastating for the company outside of North America, Shepherd said.

"While October's outage, focused on EMEA particularly, has hurt RIM's reputation for reliability, we do not expect it to have a substantial impact and expect a decent Q4 performance there," he added.

Llamas and Shepherd both said that whatever success RIM has outside of North America, it needs to reassert its position in the U.S. and Canada, its home country, with products based on its new BBX platform.

Llamas noted that RIM didn't release a new BlackBerry in North American in 2011 until mid-year, while HTC, Samsung and Motorola were releasing new smartphones "almost every month."

Llamas added: "Repetition is reputation, and if RIM's not repeatedly out there with new products, it will lose mindshare."

[Shlooky]

It's the US market that counts.

[Superfly_FR]

It's the US market that counts.

Not only. RIM's income is 56% out of NA.

[RCCollins]

RIM is settling into the "free phone with contract" device. The high end smartphone market will continue to slip away.

[Shlooky]

I agree, but there are several aspects that could drive RIM down even if successful outside of NA...

1-there are 300 million people in the US and over 50 million in Canada (give or take) huge population which can drive major sales. NA folks will spend more on a phone on average, carriers subsidize the phones too, so they can sell higher end phones contributing to RIM's profits.

2-RIMM stock is being traded on the TSX and NASDAQ, primary investors and shareholders are in NA. if they don't see growth in their own region, that's enough to be concerned and the stock goes down as a result.

So I believe the NA market is just as essential as the rest of the world.

[Smartie020]

I think RIM�s major market is going to be outside of the US.
500 million people are living in europe and in asia millions more. And these Blackberry�s are getting more and more popular over here and especially in asian countries

[sportline]

300 million potential us customers buying on a 2 years contract (with return policy) vs 1 billion people (potential customers outside us) buying cash. which one will work? of course the 1 billion people.
the us market is saturated, got so many different network frequencies and customers are locked in contract ( so no changing device for the next 2 years) - therefore no second hand market. elsewhere the second hand market is thriving - so there's a lot of new buyers everyday buying second hand handsets.

[gonz561]

Sportline has a point. In costa rica, there are contract and no contract as well as second hand phones, and blackberry is doing way better than anything else there. Its cheaper to buy a bb than an iphone or an android, and BBM is a huge plus point for them too.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[sportline]

if bbm is not important apple wouldn't even bother to have imessage. they tried to push siri instead and went down to the ditch. poor battery life and outage.
all in all apple is good for apps and games. but then the screen is too small for now.

google talk never took off. maybe it will if you can have 30% battery by noon on a galaxy s2. been there, done that, root, flash this etc etc but you still can't get your gps on to save battery on an android phone.

for work and business you definitely need a keyboard, for sure. productivity will actually go down with people scrambling to dial somebody (scroll - scroll), or typing to reply email, or running to the charger.

[moiselles]

if bbm is not important apple wouldn't even bother to have imessage. they tried to push siri instead and went down to the ditch. poor battery life and outage.
all in all apple is good for apps and games. but then the screen is too small for now.

google talk never took off. maybe it will if you can have 30% battery by noon on a galaxy s2. been there, done that, root, flash this etc etc but you still can't get your gps on to save battery on an android phone.

for work and business you definitely need a keyboard, for sure. productivity will actually go down with people scrambling to dial somebody (scroll - scroll), or typing to reply email, or running to the charger.

Siri didn't go down the ditch. And not everyone experienced bad battery life (not me, mine has been great). It is amazing for apps, games, messaging, browsing, social networking, photography, etc. The screen, for me, is perfect. I don't want a mini-tablet in my purse.

I don't understand what you mean by your "scroll" reference. I had to scroll on my Torch and with my iPhone I can actually scroll faster. Still not sure what you're trying to get at here.

[sportline]

in my opinion touchscreen still won't cut as a business phones. takes too long do do anything. good for kids or people with time to mess around. thats my point.
if i got employees working for me, with important emails and quick response, i wouldn't let them use a gaming phone. they will use blackberry. as for torch, what torch? with hard keyboard torch 9800/9810 you can dial anyone or search just by pushing a hardware key. its faster for sure. and the shortcuts.

[moiselles]

in my opinion touchscreen still won't cut as a business phones. takes too long do do anything. good for kids or people with time to mess around. thats my point.
if i got employees working for me, with important emails and quick response, i wouldn't let them use a gaming phone. they will use blackberry. as for torch, what torch? with hard keyboard torch 9800/9810 you can dial anyone or search just by pushing a hardware key. its faster for sure. and the shortcuts.

I'm not even going to try to debate you with you because this isn't the thread for it. Why you even brought up Apple and it's many shortcomings (according to you) is beyond me. This is about RIM's future markets overseas, not Apple.

[FranzJoseph]

I agree, but there are several aspects that could drive RIM down even if successful outside of NA...

1-there are 300 million people in the US and over 50 million in Canada (give or take) huge population which can drive major sales. NA folks will spend more on a phone on average, carriers subsidize the phones too, so they can sell higher end phones contributing to RIM's profits.

Normally I let these things slide but there are only 35 Million people in Canada.

With that in mind Carriers in Canada still promote BlackBerries like no tomorrow. I have many friends who are switching to BlackBerry from dumb phones. It easily outweighs those who are ditching BB for iPhone.
Pretty sure I only know 2 people with an android phone, it isn`t as popular in Canada.

[sportline]

I'm not even going to try to debate you with you because this isn't the thread for it. Why you even brought up Apple and it's many shortcomings (according to you) is beyond me. This is about RIM's future markets overseas, not Apple.

its the competition that matters:
apple and android (in general) is the big league
in the lower rung rim will try to fight against big league (to go up) while fighting nokia (to stay alive) at the same time. overall nokia got better representation (nokia stores everywhere in the world). rim would have gone without BIS/BES as a comparative advantage. other players tried but their ecosystem (imessage/gtalk and push-email services) never took off and still be rim's comparative and competitive advantage. i wonder is someone will start something similar to BIS/BES services, maybe google or even apple.
nokia turn-around from near stalling to a walking speed now: while rim is still flying down, not yet stalling, but not yet to rebound; right now all attention to rim is on weakness, while nokia in general is saved from media criticism. nokia got windows and symbian, and meego to go on all front. whatever is bad about elop, he did show leadership and fulfill promises. rim shows leadership weakness.

so until leadership and direction (and especially good PR work) is back at rim, nothing will change these negatives.

[vrs626]

if bbm is not important apple wouldn't even bother to have imessage. they tried to push siri instead and went down to the ditch. poor battery life and outage.
all in all apple is good for apps and games. but then the screen is too small for now.

google talk never took off. maybe it will if you can have 30% battery by noon on a galaxy s2. been there, done that, root, flash this etc etc but you still can't get your gps on to save battery on an android phone.

for work and business you definitely need a keyboard, for sure. productivity will actually go down with people scrambling to dial somebody (scroll - scroll), or typing to reply email, or running to the charger.

Nonsense. I know plenty of people that use iPhones and Andriod devices for business and they are just as productive as Blackberry users. Just because you might not be as productive without a keyboard that doesn't mean that others have the same issues.

[Jake Storm]

Nonsense. I know plenty of people that use iPhones and Andriod devices for business and they are just as productive as Blackberry users. Just because you might not be as productive without a keyboard that doesn't mean that others have the same issues.

That's nonsense. I don't know anyone who uses an iPhone for business.
I was at some meetings last month. 58 people in the room every last one had a BB. The only other phones I saw were some dumb phones that a few people carried in addition to their BB. Not one iPhone or Android in the room and believe me I spent a lot of time looking. It was 2 full days of boring meetings, and everyone at one time or another was sending/reading email on their BB. Mostly 97XX models.

[Rickroller]

That's nonsense. I don't know anyone who uses an iPhone for business.

Well then, if Jake Storm doesn't know anyone who uses one for business, then NO ONE uses them for business..period. End of debate.

[Jake Storm]

Well then, if Jake Storm doesn't know anyone who uses one for business, then NO ONE uses them for business..period. End of debate.

+1
Well said.

[Economist101]

Not one iPhone or Android in the room and believe me I spent a lot of time looking. It was 2 full days of boring meetings, and everyone at one time or another was sending/reading email on their BB. Mostly 97XX models.

Therefore, people that spend 2 full days in boring meetings prefer BlackBerry. There has to be a slogan in there somewhere. Hmmm. . . how about "Amateur hour is over, but two days of boring meetings are not. Get BlackBerry." Boom. I should have been a copy writer.

[sosumi11]

That's nonsense. I don't know anyone who uses an iPhone for business.

Have you made the same observations outside of Canada?

For the record, please tell me the difference between:

Creating/sending/receiving a business email vs creating/sending/receiving a personal email.
Creating & Viewing a business PDF vs Creating & viewing a personal PDF.
Making/receiving a business phone call vs making/receiving a personal phone call.
Creating/Viewing a business spreadsheet vs Creating/viewing a personal spreadsheet.
Receiving/Sending a business text message vs receiving/sending a personal text message.
Performing a remote wipe performed on a Blackberry vs performing a remote wipe performed on an iPhone.
Shooting and editing a business video vs shooting and editing a personal video.
Let's not forget Powerpoint presentations too.

And why an iPhone cannot do both.

Mahalo.

[vrs626]

That's nonsense. I don't know anyone who uses an iPhone for business.
I was at some meetings last month. 58 people in the room every last one had a BB. The only other phones I saw were some dumb phones that a few people carried in addition to their BB. Not one iPhone or Android in the room and believe me I spent a lot of time looking. It was 2 full days of boring meetings, and everyone at one time or another was sending/reading email on their BB. Mostly 97XX models.

Well, that settles it then, doesn't it? I work in Washington, DC, and more and more lawyers, lobbyists, etc., are using iPhones and Androids all the time. When I started at my firm three years ago it was almost 100 percent Blackberry users. Now it's 50/50 Blackberry and Android/iPhone.

[katiepea]

Bad news for bb fans, the more the sell overseas and less they sell here, the more the focus will be on cheaper models and the more that marketshare overseas will have a hard time competing with cheaper android models, rim needs to keep focus where they make the most money, which has been in the USA

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[Jake Storm]

Bad news for bb fans, the more the sell overseas and less they sell here, the more the focus will be on cheaper models and the more that marketshare overseas will have a hard time competing with cheaper android models, rim needs to keep focus where they make the most money, which has been in the USA

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

Canada isn't "overseas".

[Fat Bastage]

Have you made the same observations outside of Canada?

For the record, please tell me the difference between:

Creating/sending/receiving a business email vs creating/sending/receiving a personal email.
Creating & Viewing a business PDF vs Creating & viewing a personal PDF.
Making/receiving a business phone call vs making/receiving a personal phone call.
Creating/Viewing a business spreadsheet vs Creating/viewing a personal spreadsheet.
Receiving/Sending a business text message vs receiving/sending a personal text message.
Performing a remote wipe performed on a Blackberry vs performing a remote wipe performed on an iPhone.
Shooting and editing a business video vs shooting and editing a personal video.
Let's not forget Powerpoint presentations too.

And why an iPhone cannot do both.

Mahalo.

Don't hold your breath waiting for an answer. You see, it is much easier to claim that the blackberry is a business device without articulating what differentiates it and makes it more advantageous for business.

[gfr3]

300 million potential us customers buying on a 2 years contract (with return policy) vs 1 billion people (potential customers outside us) buying cash. which one will work? of course the 1 billion people.
the us market is saturated, got so many different network frequencies and customers are locked in contract ( so no changing device for the next 2 years) - therefore no second hand market. elsewhere the second hand market is thriving - so there's a lot of new buyers everyday buying second hand handsets.

300Million with most of them living with a credit against 6.7billion in the rest of the world.
Just do the math.
China and India will be the markets in the future that counts