[glassofpinot]

Per this article, RIM's current stock value is supported by even a worst case scenario. So it has only to go up when BB10 succeeds, which I believe it will sufficiently to turn the tide from their declines.
(it is also a reminder that 2013 will be the 10th anniversary of BB smartphones. Time flies.

their title, not mine...
RIM sinks, but patents, network have value - Yahoo! News

[glassofpinot]

full text here...
RIM sinks, but patents, network have value
By PETER SVENSSON and ROB GILLIES | Associated Press – 1:00am, 31 May 2012
..WATERLOO, Ontario (AP) — Research In Motion Ltd., the maker of the BlackBerry, is in steep decline. The company, once the crown jewel of the Canadian technology industry, is now worth 1 percent of Apple's market capitalization. One way for RIM to stop the downward tailspin: It could sell itself to a competitor or financial firm. But who would step up to buy RIM —and why?

Late Tuesday, the company said it expects to post an operating loss for the current quarter, a sign that BlackBerry sales are falling even faster than analysts expected. On Wednesday, the company's stock hit its lowest level since 2003, the year RIM went from making two-way e-mail pagers to smartphones.

The stock has fallen 93 percent since their peak in 2008. Since then, the BlackBerry's dominance as the smartphone for on-the-go business people has been eviscerated by Apple Inc.'s iPhone, and more recently, by phones running Google Inc.'s Android software. Research firm IDC says BlackBerrys now account for 6.4 percent of the global smartphone market, a third of what they had two years ago.

In that time, the company's financial performance has suffered. RIM reported a 25 percent revenue decline in the latest fiscal quarter, to $4.2 billion from $5.6 billion. For the full fiscal year that ended on March 3, it earned $1.2 billion, or $2.22 per share, on revenue of $18.4 billion. That's down from net income of $3.4 billion, or $6.34 a share, on revenue of $19.9 billion in fiscal 2011.

RIM issued the dire warning about its business Tuesday, adding that it will lay off a "significant" number of employees.

Still, the company is defiant. Chief executive, Thorsten Heins, says he can turn things around with the help of fresh smartphone software. Heins joined RIM four years ago and was most recently its chief operating officer. He replaced co-CEOs Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis in January after the company lost tens of billions in market value.

"My charter from the board of directors is very clear: long-term value creation with RIM," Heins told The Associated Press in an interview at the company's headquarters in Waterloo, Ontario, earlier this month.

Analysts give RIM only a slight chance of coming out of the crisis. To hedge its bets, the company has hired bankers to look at its options. It's not actively looking to sell itself, Heins said, but it wants to be prepared.

"We are prudent because we know the situation is somewhat challenging," Heins said. "So we are just looking at everything that could be an option. That doesn't mean we are pulling on those options. But we need to understand ... what is our field of action that we could take in case we need to?"

As RIM's prospects worsened, last year marked a turning point in the way analysts assess RIMs value. Instead of treating it like a company with a future, they started looking at it as a collection of parts that could be split up and sold separately to the highest bidder.

Michael Walkley at Canaccord Genuity believes most of the company's value lies in the monthly fees it gets from phone companies in exchange for running the systems that deliver email and Web pages to BlackBerrys.

RIM has 78 million users connected to this system, but Walkley estimates that only 20 million are corporate and government users who are likely to stick around because of the communications security RIM provides. The rest are consumers who will jump to competing phones, he believes. That business is worth about $2.75 billion to a competitor, Walkley wrote in a research report Wednesday.

The other major component of RIM's value is its patent portfolio. The company had an early scare in U.S. patent courts in 2006, when it was forced to pay $612.5 million to a small company founded by an inventor who had patents on wireless e-mail delivery. Since then, it's filed for thousands of patents to use as a defense against future suits.

Patents on wireless technologies exploded in value last year, as Apple and Microsoft Corp. started suing makers of phones that run Google's Android software. Countersuits followed. A consortium that included Apple and RIM bought the patents of a defunct Canadian maker of telecommunications gear, Nortel, for $4.5 billion last year. That compares with the $1.13 billion Nortel's once-prominent wireless networks business fetched in 2009.

As a counter-move, Google bolstered its own patent portfolio by buying Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc., a U.S. phone maker with only slightly better prospects than RIM, for $12.5 billion.

Where does that leave RIM? Christopher Marlett, the CEO of MDB Capital, said RIM's patents are worth more than $1 billion, and could be worth as much as $4 billion if a bidding war develops between Apple, Google, Microsoft Corp. and perhaps Samsung Electronics Co.

"It's a question of how aggressive they get," Marlett said. His firm is an investment bank that focuses on intellectual property, including patents.

Walkley puts the value of RIM's portfolio at $2.5 billion, excluding the patents RIM bought from Nortel and shares with Apple, Microsoft and other buyers.

RIM has $2.1 billion in cash, but Walkley discounts this completely, since the phone business will likely start using up cash soon, and downsizing will require severance payments. That means the email network and the patents comprise RIM's entire value at $5.25 billion, by his estimate.

That's very close to RIM's current market capitalization, at $5.4 billion, though a buyer could be expected to pay a premium.

The cash cushion also means that RIM is in no imminent danger of going bankrupt. But as the shares decline, RIM is likely to face increasing pressure from shareholders to unlock the company's value through a sale, and to abandon the comeback plan.

A possible middle ground would be to sell the patent portfolio while keeping the rest of the company. Two months ago, AOL, once a pioneering Internet service provider, sold and licensed its patents —which are more modest than RIM's for $1 billion— to Microsoft.

Microsoft is one company that's been suggested as a potential RIM buyer. The software juggernaut is trying to get back into smartphone software, but its Windows Phones haven't been popular so far. Buying RIM could give it a chance to establish itself as a provider of trusted wireless email services, though moving subscribers from BlackBerry to Windows could be challenging.
___
AP Technology Writer Peter Svensson contributed from New York.

[Superfly_FR]

I guess institutional investors now got the tempo Heins injected.
The stock value is far from book value and it probably won't raise that much until BB10 launch. But RIM's assets are valuable. So that the consensus, despite flaming papers like the fools' ones, is "wait and see" (hold).
We gently slide from "you're dead: I short" to "you can do it: I hold" schema.
At least for some ...

[Superfly_FR]

With no definite date for BB10 and a history of delays your optimism is kind of quaint. If the release is on October 10 (10/10 which is nice) then it will be in direct competition with the probable iPhone new release. We shall see.

As Thor said - relayed by Kevin may times - apple is NOT the target. Not now. Too early.

[addicted44]

As Thor said - relayed by Kevin may times - apple is NOT the target. Not now. Too early.

The current target should be Android. But more importantly, the current goal should be simply to establish BB10 as a contender.

The problem, however, is that a coinciding iPhone release would suck out all the air from RIM's marketing campaigns in NA which is the initial primary BB10 market. And, BB10, even if it is not intended to compete with the iPhone currently, will be compared against it.

RIM needs to be extremely careful with its launch and marketing plans.

[cgk]

While apple might not be the target, there has to a compelling reason, if it is about the same price, for the average consumer to pick a bb10 device over an iPhone 5. So far the reasons advanced here have been multi-tasking, security and obscure technical aspects of the os - none of which provide any advantage in the consumer marketplace. So hopefully RIM have an ace up their sleeve.

I think last year against the iPhone 4 would have been a better time, the 5 is going to a major revision and if they launch about the same time will suck all the air out of the room.

My real problem is that I look at how much money that Microsoft and partners have thrown at WP to very limited impact - RIM has to ramp up BB10 sales pretty quickly or the stock price will fall through the floor and it will be over.

[Superfly_FR]

While apple might not be the target, there has to a compelling reason, if it is about the same price, for the average consumer to pick a bb10 device over an iPhone 5. So far the reasons advanced here have been multi-tasking, security and obscure technical aspects of the os - none of which provide any advantage in the consumer marketplace. So hopefully RIM have an ace up their sleeve.
I think last year against the iPhone 4 would have been a better time, the 5 is going to a major revision and if they launch about the same time will suck all the air out of the room.
Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

Ip5 might be slightly overvalued ... also. What's leaking ? Not much for now; Os revision and possibly a larger screen and apple fan's have spended money twice this year already ...
We could also talk about self-cannibalism with iPadx ...

Let's have another way of thinking (uh, is that English ? ) and look at the way people buy devices :
. Type 1: the brand/systems fans.
No matter when/what you do, they are hypnotized and the acquisition cost would be huge. Yet, some of theme are only driven by the hype; but you can't beat the hype in weeks.
. Type 2 : Geeks and geekettes
What they want : something new or -even better- in advance. You can reach them with novelties and "can't beat" features and devices. Clearly BB10 can address these. Btw, geeks make the hype ... so that they may enroll some of the Type 1.
. Type 3 Joes and Joans
They want a device that combines efficiency, ease of use and durability, with a pinch of hype. Whan buying, they go in stores and ask for advices to the vendor, first sentence being " xxx told me I must buy zzz". Clearly the #1 target anbd BB10 is well crafted for them ... IF RIM's sales-force hit the street to demonstrate products (that has been a major fail with PB) and new devices U.I experience.
. Type 4 Corporations/Administrations (the big ones)
Here I have a problem ... because I think RIM's gonna ride two horses with the same hand. They need to avoid the bleeding: given the inventory, they might offer "free upgrades" to large fleets in order to flush the BB7 stock: good for subscriptions and cash ... but bullet in the feet for BB10 first sales. But does it really matters ? Finally, companies are not that much incline to buy first-gen devices, and may be very happy with 9xxx OS7 devices at no cost. But it means at least 18 months before BB10 hits large accounts ...
. Type 5 Enterprises (from SOHO to Mid-size)
MDM is becoming a reality for those organizations, it's about efficiency. But they don't have (I.T) internal resources to manage it. What they want ? An easy and reliable (cloud based) interoperability between their docs, agendas, contact-lists and all users/devices. RIM must bundle that with incentive offers. I'm one of them, and I've been working/searching hard to figure an office365 + BB business cloud will have such a low cost than $5 per month/user. Once again, RIM sales-force must hit the street and RIM make convinients combo offers like office365+BB Cloud+Phone+PB that makes them the best choice. In France, these organizations represents roughly 50% of the working people ... don't miss. BB7/Fusion-Balance-BB cloud is the best thing I ever implemented to my own small businesses to gain efficiency ... and BB10 should enhance that substantially.

Now, about "security". Let's just forget this terminology for end-users. It's time they realize it's not the "dad's computer security" but their own privacy. Once the link between the two concept will be clear ... RIM new communication team ? C'mon guys: work on it.

As you can (I hope) read, there's no certainties. It's a challenge, yeah, a dam crazy challenge, where any move you make can result in unexpected side-effects ...
But, yeah, I believe M. Heins have both view and guts to lead this straight to success.

RIM : YOU.CAN.DO.IT.

[cgk]

p5 might be slightly overvalued ... also. What's leaking ? Not much for now; Os revision and possibly a larger screen and apple fan's have spended money twice this year already ...
We could also talk about self-cannibalism with iPadx ...

All the indicators show that apple pull in new customers with every new Iphone/ipad with existing users upgrading everything other one - so this is more likely to be of interest to iphone 4 users than 4s out of the existing base.

. Type 3 Joes and Joans
They want a device that combines efficiency, ease of use and durability, with a pinch of hype. Whan buying, they go in stores and ask for advices to the vendor, first sentence being " xxx told me I must buy zzz". Clearly the #1 target anbd BB10 is well crafted for them ... IF RIM's sales-force hit the street to demonstrate products (that has been a major fail with PB) and new devices U.I experience.

You've missed the biggest component - price - most consumers pick on their budget - if the BB10 is on a similar price plan to an iphone or Galaxy III, I think it's had it. As for demonstrating products, that has a very limited impact as far as I can tell from the research in that area - price, carrier and familiarly seem to be the key criteria.

Now, about "security". Let's just forget this terminology for end-users. It's time they realize it's not the "dad's computer security" but their own privacy. Once the link between the two concept will be clear ... RIM new communication team ? C'mon guys: work on it.

But you are marketing to a generation who will gives away all their personal information for free to organisations like facebook - such an approach would be a bust because the average consumer response is "I don't care".

[Superfly_FR]

All the indicators show that apple pull in new customers with every new Iphone/ipad with existing users upgrading everything other one - so this is more likely to be of interest to iphone 4 users than 4s out of the existing base.

Probably, yes. First comers will aslo "join the dance" with latest hype ...

You've missed the biggest component - price - most consumers pick on their budget - if the BB10 is on a similar price plan to an iphone or Galaxy III, I think it's had it. As for demonstrating products, that has a very limited impact as far as I can tell from the research in that area - price, carrier and familiarly seem to be the key criteria.

Yes, and durability (the main point for RIM: demonstrate it will last) is also a key feature. Some of my friends are fed-up with fragmentation (android) and update-is-a-must (apple) status. At least they remember their BBs served them well for years ...

But you are marketing to a generation who will gives away all their personal information for free to organisations like facebook - such an approach would be a bust because the average consumer response is "I don't care".

Yes for FB, Google or others ... but what about companies? Do they feel comfortable with their boss reading their web history (as an example) or emails ?

Your arguments are fair ... as mine may appear illusionary ... marketing job ;-)

[_StephenBB81]

With no definite date for BB10 and a history of delays your optimism is kind of quaint. If the release is on October 10 (10/10 which is nice) then it will be in direct competition with the probable iPhone new release. We shall see.

How many delays have we seen under the Current management structure?

How many promises has he failed to deliver on?

[_StephenBB81]

The current target should be Android. But more importantly, the current goal should be simply to establish BB10 as a contender.

The problem, however, is that a coinciding iPhone release would suck out all the air from RIM's marketing campaigns in NA which is the initial primary BB10 market. And, BB10, even if it is not intended to compete with the iPhone currently, will be compared against it.

RIM needs to be extremely careful with its launch and marketing plans.

The current target should be Former BlackBerry users, and Virgin Smartphone users.

Why target Android or Apple? both have many advantages among their disadvantages, get the people who have yet to own a smartphone, in North America that is still a good 40-50% of the market, and get your old BlackBerry users back who once loved their BlackBerry's that's got to be a reasonably significant % of a quarters volumes.

create the ground swells with new users, and other people will take notice from the other platfoms. grass is always greener can work in RIM's favour

[brucep1]

How many delays have we seen under the Current management structure?

How many promises has he failed to deliver on?

Fine, I'll bite. What was there to delay or promise under current management?

Please don't say OS 2 for PlayBook...I don't count making the 4th release date "on time"

[glidewells]

Targeting Apple or Android at this point would be bad, like said before target current and former BB users and build the momentum from there.

"how do you eat an elephant? One bite at the time"

[_StephenBB81]

Fine, I'll bite. What was there to delay or promise under current management?

Please don't say OS 2 for PlayBook...I don't count making the 4th release date "on time"

Well Promise would be delivering BB10 ahead of schedule, or countless other stupid promises that could be made.

But my point is that basing RIM's future on their past is not fair as they are not the RIM of the past They are a new RIM, they may fail, but to say they will because they did in the past is just ignorant

[brucep1]

Well Promise would be delivering BB10 ahead of schedule, or countless other stupid promises that could be made.

But my point is that basing RIM's future on their past is not fair as they are not the RIM of the past They are a new RIM, they may fail, but to say they will because they did in the past is just ignorant

Not what I said. My point is, I'm not ready to go ahead and call them a changed company until I see some, ya know, changes.

Does this "new" RIM keep promises? We have no clue.
Does this "new" RIM make deadlines? We have no clue.

We have yet to see whether the shakeup in management has had ANY impact on the company, other than philosophical.

I'm not arguing the potential of RIM. Even though you want to dismiss the past as the old RIM, I know there are still some of the same minds at RIM who are capable of doing incredible work. Stay tuned to see what happens..

[_StephenBB81]

Not what I said. My point is, I'm not ready to go ahead and call them a changed company until I see some, ya know, changes.

Does this "new" RIM keep promises? We have no clue.
Does this "new" RIM make deadlines? We have no clue.

We have yet to see whether the shakeup in management has had ANY impact on the company, other than philosophical.

I'm not arguing the potential of RIM. Even though you want to dismiss the past as the old RIM, I know there are still some of the same minds at RIM who are capable of doing incredible work. Stay tuned to see what happens..

You bit to my post replying to a previous post, so the full train was what I was addressing.

What the New RIM has done was Being honest and frank to a fault that shows a change
What the New RIM has done has openly showed they are advancing the tools for developers without making grand promises,

This new RIM has not given any deadlines to make, which in itself is a better RIM.
And we HAVE seen a change in RIM, if you follow the developer side of things, they are moving at a much faster, pace then ever has been seen from RIM.

I'm not saying it is all happy go lucky, but there has been major changes to RIM, so comparing them to the Storm failure constantly is like Comparing everything McDonalds launches to the Arch Deluxe and expecting similar outcomes,

[brucep1]

You bit to my post replying to a previous post, so the full train was what I was addressing.

What the New RIM has done was Being honest and frank to a fault that shows a change
What the New RIM has done has openly showed they are advancing the tools for developers without making grand promises,

This new RIM has not given any deadlines to make, which in itself is a better RIM.
And we HAVE seen a change in RIM, if you follow the developer side of things, they are moving at a much faster, pace then ever has been seen from RIM.

I'm not saying it is all happy go lucky, but there has been major changes to RIM, so comparing them to the Storm failure constantly is like Comparing everything McDonalds launches to the Arch Deluxe and expecting similar outcomes,

That may be all fine and dandy for you. You have decided it's a new company. I would like to wait and see what the results are before I declare RIM born again.

[_StephenBB81]

That may be all fine and dandy for you. You have decided it's a new company. I would like to wait and see what the results are before I declare RIM born again.

Fair enough.

So you assume then that they have not changed or learned anything then in the last 4 years? as many on the board seem to?


I actually don't ask faith that they can come through, just the absence of contempt for what they are doing based on the actions of a previous leadership.

[glassofpinot]

He has his numbers wrong.

Says who? I'm not ready to take your word for it after 7 posts.

The layoffs of dead wood slows the bleeding a bit but many who know how to do are leaving on their own and will have to be replaced fast - at high cost.

Another general statement without factual basis or real costs. Reductions are rarely what they appear from a distance, despite your generalizations. Reductions cut spending - unfortunately necessary. If it's done on completed or lower priority projects, or to re-align direction, then it's done well. I don't see any evidence that this is not happening.

The patents are losing, not gaining, in value.

Says who?

Core business users are leaving fast.

You got one thing right.

The press is, justifiably, bad.

Actually two right.

Ain't no buyers out there. Only value is in the cash and the clock is ticking away.------.

There are lots of buyers - again you sensationalize and generalize.
Your value arguments are empty - the market puts the same value on RIM's other assets as the author. I'll take what you consider to be zero value anytime if you don't want it, because I don't agree with your valuations that are really generalizations.

[waker]

The current target should be Android.

Why would you go after the number #1 (android) phone operating system if you are scared of #2 (apple)?


Sent from my BAMF using Tapatalk

[palomartian]

New RIM? No. Same RIM. What is new is the financials are now so bad and getting worse they can't give guidance, only press releases. Yes, the core components of the company have value, but they will flush away much of their cash chasing the market with BB10. The new iPhone and the latest Samsung will sell out in hours sight unseen, and people will wait in long lines to buy them. BB10 devices will gather dust. BB10 could be technically equal, but add up everything and it will certainly be no better. Take into account the massive ecosystem deficit and it's a slam dunk. All the BB fanboys in the world add up to about 10 minutes of sales for the competition. BB10 is doomed, the market knows it, and that is why they value the company at what your could break it up and sell it for, which is lower every day.

[_StephenBB81]

Why would you go after the number #1 (android) phone operating system if you are scared of #2 (apple)?


Sent from my BAMF using Tapatalk

Well in part the Stupidity of the market place by comparing
Android to Apple/RIM,

RIM could go after an Android Manufacturer head on fight them, try and match their devices and services, The Market is played by 3 completely operations being unfairly compared

iOS to Android isn't really fair, iOS is iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad, Android has 1000+ devices of various form factors for various markets, comparing activations is ridiculous,
Then you have RIM who by all intents is a Niche player focused on the Physical QWERTY experience as they always have, yet keep trying to play in the other guys sandboxes because they are told that is where they have to go.

RIM needs to make their sandbox great, and then pick some targets to do battle with, and in reality RIM's best target are manufacturers flogging Android devices with little to no margin.

[OzarkaTexile]

Then you have RIM who by all intents is a Niche player focused on the Physical QWERTY experience as they always have, yet keep trying to play in the other guys sandboxes because they are told that is where they have to go.

RIM needs to make their sandbox great, and then pick some targets to do battle with, and in reality RIM's best target are manufacturers flogging Android devices with little to no margin.

RIM's fate will likely be tied to the success of their first BB10 phone, which will be touchscreen without a keyboard. That's someone else's sandbox. New RIM or not, I'm very skeptical of their ability to execute on that device.

[_StephenBB81]

RIM's fate will likely be tied to the success of their first BB10 phone, which will be touchscreen without a keyboard. That's someone else's sandbox. New RIM or not, I'm very skeptical of their ability to execute on that device.

If I didn't have a devAlpha, and hadn't seen far more of the OS then is available on my devAlpha I'd agree with you

RIM needs to play in the other peoples sandbox because the market tells them too, and they are a publicly traded company so that is where they must play,
but seeing as they recently filed for a new physical keyboard patent the Keyboard isn't dead for RIM,


RIM is stuck between a rock and a hard place, they need the touchscreen phone market, as they need to stay focused on what they do best. I truly hope they can achieve it, because typing on glass sucks, and I really don't want to find a new hobby, but NOTHING about the Samsung or HTC phones has excited me in a long while, and I can't stand iOS, so if RIM were to fail it looks like I'm going to need to find a new hobby to be excited about.

[cgk]

The problem with "build your own sandbox" is that requires other revenue streams to prop up the company while you try and build that niche. Microsoft can play that game because their income is diverse - where is the revenue stream going to come from while RIM builds blackberry 10?

I had assumed that the upcoming operating loss was going to be due to inventory write-off but on the crackberry podcast Chris said he had spoken to investor relations and that they confirmed it was not due to a one-off item. We know the margins on curves are terrible (Chris suggests they are near zero) so the only thing left is a much faster than expected decline of premium devices.

So where is the cash going to come from?

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express