08-04-11 05:45 PM
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  1. brucep1's Avatar
    No, it has gotten over and above what is deserved.

    However, that is not to say that a devaluation was not in order, simply, the two bozo's in charge have **** up royally from the 9000 on. So indeed some punishment was in order. But suffice to say, the current valuation is mostly, though not exclusively based on **** statements from analysts that don't have a clue what they are saying, and from so called tech bloggers that fall into the same pile of ****.

    It should be at $80 to $90 from $140 not $26.

    If you are so sure, I would invest everything you own because that is the deal of the century.

    There are reasons the stock is at $26, and it's not just clueless analysts and so called tech bloggers. People aren't going to have any reason to go back to Blackberry for at least a year. The stock price reflects that.
    07-21-11 07:08 AM
  2. 01itr's Avatar
    The difference between Apple and RIM at this moment extends well beyond OS polish. As for "the potential to become bigger than Apple," they'll need 350 retail stores, 5x the quarterly revenue and 2x the total number of device sales to get close. In other words, it's not happening.
    RIM doesn't need retail stores... How many Google stores do you see? Microsoft stores? 5x quarterly revenue and 2x total number of device sales is not an impossible feat.

    RIM owns QNX. QNX is ALREADY integrated in many many fields. From automotive to industries to medical to networking to security and defense. Apple sells phones and computers. Am I the only one who sees the potential? RIM needs to get its act together. A company with its hands in all of these fields should be ruling the world, not struggling to sell phones to teenagers.
    07-21-11 08:01 AM
  3. brucep1's Avatar
    RIM doesn't need retail stores... How many Google stores do you see? Microsoft stores? 5x quarterly revenue and 2x total number of device sales is not an impossible feat.

    RIM owns QNX. QNX is ALREADY integrated in many many fields. From automotive to industries to medical to networking to security and defense. Apple sells phones and computers. Am I the only one who sees the potential? RIM needs to get its act together. A company with its hands in all of these fields should be ruling the world, not struggling to sell phones to teenagers.
    Unless RIM plans on releasing the best search engine on the internet and the most popular PC software, then yes, it is an impossible feat.
    psufan32 likes this.
    07-21-11 08:19 AM
  4. OMGitworks's Avatar
    No, it has gotten over and above what is deserved.

    However, that is not to say that a devaluation was not in order, simply, the two bozo's in charge have ****ed up royally from the 9000 on. So indeed some punishment was in order. But suffice to say, the current valuation is mostly, though not exclusively based on bull**** statements from analysts that don't have a clue what they are saying, and from so called tech bloggers that fall into the same pile of ****.

    It should be at $80 to $90 from $140 not $26.
    Then you should go buy some Jan 2012 $75 calls on RIMM. Only 6 cents a share right now, plenty of money to be made for you if you are right. FWIW I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the analysts, but I am sure you can get a few of them to sell you the calls I am posting about, and if you are right
    07-21-11 08:21 AM
  5. Eumaeus's Avatar
    They have the potential to become bigger than Apple. Only one thing remains
    This is outlandish. Apple has decades of experience (successes _and_ failures) in the consumer space, in integrated general-purpose computing, and in marketing (where "marketing" does not mean "advertising", but means "conceiving, designing, manufacturing, delivering, and advertising compelling products of good quality at prices people are willing to pay").

    RIM has one decade of history making good phones and managing a secure messaging infrastructure. They do have at least one retail store that I've seen -- in the Charlotte Airport. It looks nice, but I've never seen any customers in it.

    RIM is behind on phones, and treading water, at best, with its one non-phone foray into consumer electronics.

    They have as much chance of surpassing Apple on Apple's playing field as the Georgia Pacific Railroad or KFC does.

    QNX is neither here nor there. Solid kernels are a dime a dozen these days. The number of people who are going to buy a device based on the _underlying_ OS architecture can fit in a school bus.

    RIM's stock is where it should be. Its heyday coincided with the brief window when Blackberries could do something no one else could do. Those days are over.

    (Does anyone remember when Iomega's stock was through the roof, when their Zip and Jazz removable media drives were everyone's darlings? That window slammed shut and never re-opened).

    RIM needs to define itself realistically and set achievable goals. Becoming the next Apple is not one of them. Avoiding the fate of Nokia and finding a niche selling well-built messaging-phones that offer a clearly defined, highly efficient subset of what Android and iOS offer might be one of them.
    07-21-11 08:22 AM
  6. 01itr's Avatar
    This is outlandish. Apple has decades of experience (successes _and_ failures) in the consumer space, in integrated general-purpose computing, and in marketing (where "marketing" does not mean "advertising", but means "conceiving, designing, manufacturing, delivering, and advertising compelling products of good quality at prices people are willing to pay").

    RIM has one decade of history making good phones and managing a secure messaging infrastructure. They do have at least one retail store that I've seen -- in the Charlotte Airport. It looks nice, but I've never seen any customers in it.

    RIM is behind on phones, and treading water, at best, with its one non-phone foray into consumer electronics.

    They have as much chance of surpassing Apple on Apple's playing field as the Georgia Pacific Railroad or KFC does.

    QNX is neither here nor there. Solid kernels are a dime a dozen these days. The number of people who are going to buy a device based on the _underlying_ OS architecture can fit in a school bus.

    RIM's stock is where it should be. Its heyday coincided with the brief window when Blackberries could do something no one else could do. Those days are over.

    (Does anyone remember when Iomega's stock was through the roof, when their Zip and Jazz removable media drives were everyone's darlings? That window slammed shut and never re-opened).

    RIM needs to define itself realistically and set achievable goals. Becoming the next Apple is not one of them. Avoiding the fate of Nokia and finding a niche selling well-built messaging-phones that offer a clearly defined, highly efficient subset of what Android and iOS offer might be one of them.
    Why does everyone keep comparing RIM as only a phone manufacturer? THEY OWN QNX. And to your experience point, QNX has 30 years of experience.

    They are in almost every major field in North America.

    Are you telling me you see absolutely no potential here? The company that has its hands in every major field vs the company who sells phones and computers?
    07-21-11 08:28 AM
  7. TheMimic's Avatar
    Why does everyone keep comparing RIM as only a phone manufacturer? THEY OWN QNX. And to your experience point, QNX has 30 years of experience.

    They are in almost every major field in North America.

    Are you telling me you see absolutely no potential here? The company that has its hands in every major field vs the company who sells phones and computers?
    Yes there's potential when you have your hands ion every majoy field but that doesnt mean much when you can't execute.

    Apple doesn just sell Phones, computers. They also sell tablets, mp3 players as well as sell and rent multimedia content through iTunes, etc. So although they dont have a hand in every major field, they are in the hands of almost every consumer.
    07-21-11 09:05 AM
  8. Coffee Addict's Avatar
    Well, that is the essence of the stock market. Stock prices represent what the expected future is, not what the present is. That's why the stock market tends to be a leading indicator.
    spot on! It is now upto RIM to prove market wrong and recover from the slide.
    07-21-11 09:22 AM
  9. 01itr's Avatar
    Yes there's potential when you have your hands ion every majoy field but that doesnt mean much when you can't execute.

    Apple doesn just sell Phones, computers. They also sell tablets, mp3 players as well as sell and rent multimedia content through iTunes, etc. So although they dont have a hand in every major field, they are in the hands of almost every consumer.
    Tablets are generally bunched in with computers, but iTunes is true. However, everything Apple produces is a want from consumers, they are not necessary. Defense, automotive, industrial, medical, networking, security, these are all things that QNX (and therefore RIM) is in, and they are all necessities to every nation in the world. So yeah sure Apple is selling phones and computers to consumers, but RIM is involved in selling tablets to hospitals and integrating new technology with every single new car produced, new security for governments around the world. Not everyone has an iProduct, but nearly everyone has a car / will go to a hospital / etc etc.

    However, you are correct about RIM and executing. It seems that will be the only thing holding them back.
    07-21-11 09:39 AM
  10. TheMimic's Avatar
    Tablets are generally bunched in with computers, but iTunes is true. However, everything Apple produces is a want from consumers, they are not necessary. Defense, automotive, industrial, medical, networking, security, these are all things that QNX (and therefore RIM) is in, and they are all necessities to every nation in the world. So yeah sure Apple is selling phones and computers to consumers, but RIM is involved in selling tablets to hospitals and integrating new technology with every single new car produced, new security for governments around the world. Not everyone has an iProduct, but nearly everyone has a car / will go to a hospital / etc etc.

    However, you are correct about RIM and executing. It seems that will be the only thing holding them back.
    Everyone has a car but not every car is running a QNX system nor is every hospital. I'll give you government for BES. There seems to be a lot more $ being spent on consumer wants than corporate on needs. We see that from apples ridiculous profits.

    But yes, there's a potential for RIM to tap into a multitude of markets but will they A-get their together? B-be successful at tapping into those markets? And C-Be profitable enough to make those markets worthwhile?

    The potential is always great in any company. Capitalizing on that potential is a different story.
    07-21-11 10:00 AM
  11. 01itr's Avatar
    Everyone has a car but not every car is running a QNX system nor is every hospital.
    Yet. RIM just has to, like you said, get their together.
    07-21-11 10:15 AM
  12. Branta's Avatar
    This is outlandish. Apple has decades of experience (successes _and_ failures) in the consumer space, in integrated general-purpose computing, and in marketing (where "marketing" does not mean "advertising", but means "conceiving, designing, manufacturing, delivering, and advertising compelling products of good quality at prices people are willing to pay").
    Why does this sound like a script from Apple Marketing Slime?


    The number of people who are going to buy a device based on the _underlying_ OS architecture can fit in a school bus.
    Anyone selecting a device purely on the technical specifications of hardware and software should be riding on the short bus. What matters is the observed practical performance and alignment with the user's real-world needs.
    01itr likes this.
    07-21-11 10:53 AM
  13. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Tablets are generally bunched in with computers, but iTunes is true. However, everything Apple produces is a want from consumers, they are not necessary. Defense, automotive, industrial, medical, networking, security, these are all things that QNX (and therefore RIM) is in, and they are all necessities to every nation in the world. So yeah sure Apple is selling phones and computers to consumers, but RIM is involved in selling tablets to hospitals and integrating new technology with every single new car produced, new security for governments around the world. Not everyone has an iProduct, but nearly everyone has a car / will go to a hospital / etc etc.

    However, you are correct about RIM and executing. It seems that will be the only thing holding them back.
    I don't doubt that QNX has tons of potential, but you are VASTLY overstating QNX's market share, power, or infiltration or dominance in these fields. Prior to being bought by RIMM, QNX had revenue of less than $40M (US) per year and was bought by RIMM for around $200M (US). Those revenues were less than 1/10th the of the Fortune 500's # 500 company. The value of QNX to RIMM was integration and a new platform for RIM devices, not in the QNX business itself, that is a relatively small, in fact VERY small, company. Just for comparison Appl has about $100 Billion in revenue, and around $30 billion in cash on hand, which would you rather have.

    I do hope RIM and QNX are successful, but let's be realistic about the size and scope and real value of QNX in the real world which they are both competing.
    TheMimic likes this.
    07-21-11 11:11 AM
  14. 01itr's Avatar
    I don't doubt that QNX has tons of potential, but you are VASTLY overstating QNX's market share, power, or infiltration or dominance in these fields. Prior to being bought by RIMM, QNX had revenue of less than $40M (US) per year and was bought by RIMM for around $200M (US). Those revenues were less than 1/10th the of the Fortune 500's # 500 company. The value of QNX to RIMM was integration and a new platform for RIM devices, not in the QNX business itself, that is a relatively small, in fact VERY small, company. Just for comparison Appl has about $100 Billion in revenue, and around $30 billion in cash on hand, which would you rather have.

    I do hope RIM and QNX are successful, but let's be realistic about the size and scope and real value of QNX in the real world which they are both competing.
    I'm not saying that RIM can just flick a switch and be the #1 supplier to all hospitals and car companies. What I'm saying is that they already have their foot in the door, so to speak.

    I don't think Emagic was making $100 billion in revenue in 2002, but then Apple bought it, and a year later iTunes is released, now the undisputed king of music.
    07-21-11 11:43 AM
  15. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I'm not saying that RIM can just flick a switch and be the #1 supplier to all hospitals and car companies. What I'm saying is that they already have their foot in the door, so to speak.

    I don't think Emagic was making $100 billion in revenue in 2002, but then Apple bought it, and a year later iTunes is released, now the undisputed king of music.
    Fair enough, let's see what RIM can do!
    01itr likes this.
    07-21-11 01:27 PM
  16. Eumaeus's Avatar
    I'm not saying that RIM can just flick a switch and be the #1 supplier to all hospitals and car companies. What I'm saying is that they already have their foot in the door, so to speak.
    This is the kind of realistic thinking that could save RIM. I hope someone in Waterloo has this kind of measured perspective.

    RIM should look at examples like Western Union. They were once the king of business-telecommunications (where the "tele-" was "telegram"). That was killed by the telephone, overnight mail, and fax machines. So Western Union discovered a niche allowing people to "wire" money (for a hefty fee).

    What they didn't do is sit around pretending that cellular telephony and ubiquitous e-mail were popular only among "sheeple" who were hapless victims of "marketing" and that the all they needed were some sexy new telegram forms to put them back on top.

    QNX + a bespoke secure messaging infrastructure + solid hardware can surely find a place in the market.

    That place won't be within an order of magnitude as large as Apple's. Which is fine.
    07-21-11 03:12 PM
  17. m23haz's Avatar
    RIM is never going to catch Apple but I think they definitely can compete with them in about 24 months if things fall their way and they continue to develop things the way they should. With QNX just getting FIPS certification on the PlayBook they are already ahead of Apple in that department. A couple of big orders from the government, military and private businesses and QNX development will be off and running.
    07-21-11 03:30 PM
  18. Reed McLay's Avatar
    $27.92 +$1.28
    P/E 4.43
    Div/yield -
    EPS 6.30
    Shares 524.00M
    ...
    P/E <5?

    Some what over done and bound to be corrected, one way or the other. Instead of pay out cash, they are driving shareholder value by buying up huge chunks of shares at todays prices. Those shares come off the books, all shareholders are rewarded with a bigger piece of the pie.

    The developing World market dwarfs North America and many of those citizen have an urgent need to secure their privacy. That will continue to translate into 10 Million+ net new customers for a long time to come. Staying out of prison trumps a newest toy and most apps, any day.

    The current product line is perfect for the job it was created to do. Mike Lazaradis acknowledged they are in the arms race. The next generation of Superphone are on the way.

    My money is bet on an uptick.

    07-21-11 03:34 PM
  19. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    Unless RIM plans on releasing the best search engine on the internet and the most popular PC software, then yes, it is an impossible feat.
    Then there is Microsoft, which also sells the most popular gaming console.
    07-21-11 03:53 PM
  20. fabfreddie's Avatar
    If you are so sure, I would invest everything you own because that is the deal of the century.

    There are reasons the stock is at $26, and it's not just clueless analysts and so called tech bloggers. People aren't going to have any reason to go back to Blackberry for at least a year. The stock price reflects that.
    From $140 to $90/$80 is the result of the market saying "your taking to long to put **** out dumbass".

    From $140 to $26 is the result of clueless analysts and know nothing tech bloggers.

    Sorry, but a company that makes as much money and sells as much *** as Rim, although indeed carried itself with bloated hubris for a time, should not have dropped that much.
    07-21-11 04:51 PM
  21. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    This is the kind of realistic thinking that could save RIM. I hope someone in Waterloo has this kind of measured perspective.

    RIM should look at examples like Western Union. They were once the king of business-telecommunications (where the "tele-" was "telegram"). That was killed by the telephone, overnight mail, and fax machines. So Western Union discovered a niche allowing people to "wire" money (for a hefty fee).

    What they didn't do is sit around pretending that cellular telephony and ubiquitous e-mail were popular only among "sheeple" who were hapless victims of "marketing" and that the all they needed were some sexy new telegram forms to put them back on top.

    QNX + a bespoke secure messaging infrastructure + solid hardware can surely find a place in the market.

    That place won't be within an order of magnitude as large as Apple's. Which is fine.

    I mostly agree.

    Quit blaming the analyst and the bloggers. C'mon...
    07-21-11 07:36 PM
  22. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    This is the kind of realistic thinking that could save RIM. I hope someone in Waterloo has this kind of measured perspective.

    RIM should look at examples like Western Union. They were once the king of business-telecommunications (where the "tele-" was "telegram"). That was killed by the telephone, overnight mail, and fax machines. So Western Union discovered a niche allowing people to "wire" money (for a hefty fee).

    What they didn't do is sit around pretending that cellular telephony and ubiquitous e-mail were popular only among "sheeple" who were hapless victims of "marketing" and that the all they needed were some sexy new telegram forms to put them back on top.

    QNX + a bespoke secure messaging infrastructure + solid hardware can surely find a place in the market.

    That place won't be within an order of magnitude as large as Apple's. Which is fine.
    I mostly agree.

    Quit blaming the analyst and the bloggers. C'mon...
    I also agree. Another example of a company reinventing itself is IBM. They got out of the PC business completely, but they are doing well as a business hardware/software and services company.
    07-21-11 08:25 PM
  23. Economist101's Avatar
    RIM doesn't need retail stores... How many Google stores do you see? Microsoft stores? 5x quarterly revenue and 2x total number of device sales is not an impossible feat.
    If RIM is to "dominate" Apple, it can't do it with nonfunctioning tablets at Best Buy. As for Google stores, Google doesn't sell consumer products, and at last check the iPhone makes more revenue and profit per quarter than Google's entire business. As for Microsoft stores, they are growing them, though it doesn't make a lot of sense since they don't build their own hardware. You do realize that Microsoft has fallen way behind Apple in quarterly revenue, and the profit gap is growing, right? (For more info on the Microsoft stores, see this link: Microsoft Store to expand retail presence by 2014, makes shopping for a PC redundant -- Engadget)

    RIM owns QNX. QNX is ALREADY integrated in many many fields. From automotive to industries to medical to networking to security and defense. Apple sells phones and computers. Am I the only one who sees the potential? RIM needs to get its act together. A company with its hands in all of these fields should be ruling the world, not struggling to sell phones to teenagers.
    And yet RIM is struggling to sell phones to teenagers, and there's nothing about RIM that suggests it is up to the challenge of "dominating" Apple. RIM has never been as successful as Apple is now (most companies never are), and there's no evidence thus that the PlayBook (currently lagging Windows tablets in share) or the 2012 QNX "super phones" (which have yet to be revealed) are going to change that.
    07-21-11 09:09 PM
  24. Dapper37's Avatar
    Interesting. All this talk about RIM is dead is foolish, This is still one of the most profitable companies in the fortune 500. We all know they need to make changes, some of witch are right around the corner. The future is bright. This is not the time to give up on RIM. Remember even though the PB is what everyone says is unfinished, most everyone also says it has the strongest OS going forward. Explosive growth is coming back IMO. And i'm not saying anything bad about the competition.
    07-22-11 12:24 AM
  25. brucep1's Avatar
    From $140 to $90/$80 is the result of the market saying "your taking to long to put **** out dumbass".

    From $140 to $26 is the result of clueless analysts and know nothing tech bloggers.

    Sorry, but a company that makes as much money and sells as much *** as Rim, although indeed carried itself with bloated hubris for a time, should not have dropped that much.
    Do you know anything about the stock market?

    Again, as I said, put your money where your mouth is. If you believe in the words you say, you are getting the deal of the century at $26. Congrats, did you decide how you are going to spend your winnings yet?
    07-22-11 07:15 AM
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