[rickbansal]

This article is really disturbing.

What is wrong with RIM management? Why are they not talking with the US carriers and providing more incentives for the carriers to "push" Blackberries? At the minimum, they should be talking to the carriers about not "advising against" the BB7 products.

================================================== ====
RIMM: MKM Cuts Estimates on Weak U.S. Retail Feedback

By Tiernan Ray

MKM Partners�s Michael Genovese today reiterates a Neutral rating on shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) and a $15 �fair value estimate,� but lowers his estimates for last quarter and this year, following some �disappointing U.S. retail store checks� he�s conducted with respect to the BlackBerry, especially at Verizon Communications (VZ).

Genovese cut his estimate for the fiscal Q4 that ended last month to $4.3 billion and 80 cents a share, from a prior $4.75 billion and 90 cents. He cut his 2013 fiscal year estimate to $16.56 billion and $2.92 from a prior $17.66 billion and $3.62.

Analysts are on average modeling $4.57 billion and $1.27 for last quarter, and $17.57 billion and $2.86 for this year.

Genovese recounts disheartening feedback he heard from U.S. retail reps:

We were surprised when more than one Verizon retail sales associate told us that they actively advise customers against purchasing Blackberry. They told us that warranty returns on BB7 products are well over 10% and possibly as high as 20% with many devices (both new and refurbished models) bricking right out of the box. At the non-Verizon stores, several sales associates told us that today�s Blackberry buyer is overwhelming already a user and very few new smartphone buyers choose RIMM.

He notes, too, defections by government buyers, such as the U.S. General Services Administration, which is approving use of Apple�s (AAPL) iPhone and phones running Google�s (GOOG) Android operating system.

Genovese thinks the stock could �trade down toward $10″ this year, but says his $15 target is already fairly �conservative.�

RIM shares today are up 28 cents, or 2%, at $13.43.

[sk8er_tor]

Is it really a surprise that Verizon isn't pushing BlackBerry? This has been the case ever since Verizon got its first Android phone.
Unfortunately, sales reps don't ask the customer about their needs/requirements. If someone is looking for a communication tool, they should be recommending BlackBerry. Sadly, I doubt this is happening at the moment.

[swyost]

No US carrier will push a product with a 20% return rate. They start with razor thin margins on all phones. Toss in a high return rate and they 1) lose money on each sale/return, and 2) risk being blamed for the poor quality products and losing customers to another carrier.

[rickbansal]

Is it really a surprise that Verizon isn't pushing BlackBerry? This has been the case ever since Verizon got its first Android phone.
Unfortunately, sales reps don't ask the customer about their needs/requirements. If someone is looking for a communication tool, they should be recommending BlackBerry. Sadly, I doubt this is happening at the moment.

I'm not surprised they aren't "pushing" BBs but I am surprised they are "advising against" them. Big difference. Very worrisome IMO. Management needs to really get on top of this.

[Foreverup]

No US carrier will push a product with a 20% return rate. They start with razor thin margins on all phones. Toss in a high return rate and they 1) lose money on each sale/return, and 2) risk being blamed for the poor quality products and losing customers to another carrier.

I would like more proof on that than an analyst saying he talked to "more than one" sales associates before i accept 10%-20% warranty return numbers.

[W Hoa]

Things will be different when RIM goes LTE.

Verizon's LTE network is currently only at 5% of capacity and costing them money.

Anything that pushes that percentage higher will get a first rate promotion from them. And that will include both BB10 phones and LTE PlayBooks.

[rickbansal]

I would like more proof on that than an analyst saying he talked to "more than one" sales associates before i accept 10%-20% warranty return numbers.

Proof is irrelevant at this point. The perception of RIM and its product line being both poor quality and lacking innovation is being perpetuated. These articles don't help at all. RIM management needs to do whatever it can to change the perception.

[EchoTango]

The most troubling aspect of this article is the high return rate. If true, it means RIM has a technical "turkey" in the BB7 products which are the only products currently available from RIM. A pretty sad situation while waiting for BB10.

I certainly have not heard this from other users but, "bricking" out of the box is simply a scary statement, again if true.

Anyone else heard stories like this from any other sources ?

[Rooster99]

Proof is irrelevant at this point. The perception of RIM and its product line being both poor quality and lacking innovation is being perpetuated. These articles don't help at all. RIM management needs to do whatever it can to change the perception.

Right on - Perception IS reality.

Fundamental principle of marketing.

- R.

[hootyhoo]

The most troubling aspect of this article is the high return rate. If true, it means RIM has a technical "turkey" in the BB7 products which are the only products currently available from RIM. A pretty sad situation while waiting for BB10.

I certainly have not heard this from other users but, "bricking" out of the box is simply a scary statement, again if true.

Anyone else heard stories like this from any other sources ?

The OS7 bold and torch forums were once filled with threads about bricked devices. Fearless leader also had a couple of bricked bolds.

It doesn't seem to be as much of an issue now, but it likely led to a bitter taste for many users and as everyone knows, it's much easier to keep a customer who is satisfied than to win back a customer who has been disappointed.

[qbnkelt]

A casual run through the 9900/9930 forums can corroborate that OS7 devices did brick and nuke. I know....I had one 9930 nuke on me.
A casual stroll onto any VZW store will show that there is, at most, one BB on display. When I bought my 9370 I had to ask for it and the salesman brought it from the back. None on display and no intention to bring one out.
The article's author could have gone to AT&T. But no luck.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pcguy514]

I would like more proof on that than an analyst saying he talked to "more than one" sales associates before i accept 10%-20% warranty return numbers.

Just search here,there have been a few ppl complaining about Verizon.

[[email protected]]

Right on - Perception IS reality.

Fundamental principle of marketing.

- R.

Spot on!

Reality = (99% perception + 1% Rumor)

[DaedalusIcarusHelios]

Yep, I had to return two Torch 9850s due to bricking, which was due to some software issue when the battery drained extremely low. My third one has been fine, but I also moved to a newer OS that became available (I think it was one for Sprint at the time).

So I wouldn't be surprised on the warranty return numbers. Although I'm sure it is better now, they aren't exactly being pushed.

[Superfly_FR]

"They told us that warranty returns on BB7 products are well over 10% and possibly as high as 20% with many devices"

If this was the case ... crackberry would be literally flooded of complaints ... is it ?

[howarmat]

"They told us that warranty returns on BB7 products are well over 10% and possibly as high as 20% with many devices"

If this was the case ... crackberry would be literally flooded of complaints ... is it ?

Well there was a poll that showed some 30% of 99xx owners had their device brick or nuke. Beyond that I don't know

[Superfly_FR]

Well there was a poll that showed some 30% of 99xx owners had their device brick or nuke. Beyond that I don't know

I need some bikini help here !!!
This means that 30% of crackberry users that answered the question had problems. I don't think this is very significant ... Maybe the number of voters is more ?

Yep, updating ... 37% of 243 makes ... a (generous) 90 bricked users ... Far from flood ! (I was pretty anxious with the 7% more of bricked devices ... but no more with the number of users !!!)

[undone]

Again more speculation without any revisions from RIM. Who cares. Short it or sell it then.

[app_Developer]

Again more speculation without any revisions from RIM. Who cares. Short it or sell it then.

Well, actually the good news for RIM is that the bar is set quite low for them on the 29th. Their Q4 guidance was already quite low, and on top of that you have multiple analysts expecting a miss. So if they meet their already low guidance, that ends up being a small victory actually.

[brucep1]

Yep, updating ... 37% of 243 makes ... a (generous) 90 bricked users ... Far from flood ! (I was pretty anxious with the 7% more of bricked devices ... but no more with the number of users !!!)

Click to view quoted image

The great thing about statistics is you can make them say whatever you want. You could say, well only 90 brick users out of entire Crackberry community (8 million unique users) is a great rate!

Or you could say, well, that's 37% of all users that responded to the poll. Extend poll results out to a general population, and you have a terrible fail rate.

[undone]

Well, actually the good news for RIM is that the bar is set quite low for them on the 29th. Their Q4 guidance was already quite low, and on top of that you have multiple analysts expecting a miss. So if they meet their already low guidance, that ends up being a small victory actually.

If only that could be true. The forward view will be for stunted growth until their transition to their new phone OS is complete. If they can show growth outside of there mobile business, that will be where the silver is in the lining. Back office adoption of Fusion would be a positive as well. Clients that are continuing to use BES (Fusion) will be seen as an opportunity to re-introduce BB (OS 10)devices back into peoples hands.

[anon(757282)]

More biased slamming of RIMM based on little or no data. Very suspicious retail checking process, that appears to be focused on providing anecdotal examples that support the negative position. Only spoke with two salespeople both of whom said they recommended against RIM? Irresponsible to base a report on people. And if they did talk to more people, how many? If so, what else was said? How many stores and salespeople recommended RIM or actually listened to buyers?

Completely irresponsible article entirely biased.

Would be like reporting: "On an allegedly supportive website called Crackberry, we discovered numerous people who wrote very negatively about RIM and recommended Android and Apple phones and tablets over RIM. So even that community is losing confidence in RIM, and moving towards other platforms." Equally ridiculous conclusion as the OP article.

[brucep1]

More biased slamming of RIMM based on little or no data. Very suspicious retail checking process, that appears to be focused on providing anecdotal examples that support the negative position. Only spoke with two salespeople both of whom said they recommended against RIM? Irresponsible to base a report on people. And if they did talk to more people, how many? If so, what else was said? How many stores and salespeople recommended RIM or actually listened to buyers?

Completely irresponsible article entirely biased.

Oh yes, where are those unbiased positive articles? I'm getting sick of these negative biased ones.

[anon(757282)]

Well there was a poll that showed some 30% of 99xx owners had their device brick or nuke. Beyond that I don't know

Responding to a blog poll is self selecting and without any statistical meaning outside of that small population who answered the poll. Most users do not participate on fan websites, in pools, or even if they generally participate, people with issues are far more likely to respond to an ad-hoc poll compared to people who are satisfied with the product. Reliability can only determined from statistically valid polling, contacting a random sample of ALL owners or obtaining sales vs warranty returns, data only possessed by RIM.

[addicted44]

Responding to a blog poll is self selecting and without any statistical meaning outside of that small population who answered the poll. Most users do not participate on fan websites, in pools, or even if they generally participate, people with issues are far more likely to respond to an ad-hoc poll compared to people who are satisfied with the product. Reliability can only determined from statistically valid polling, contacting a random sample of ALL owners or obtaining sales vs warranty returns, data only possessed by RIM.

Agreed. However, even for a self selected poll those numbers are high. I think the actual bricking rate is far lower than 37% but still higher than "normal".