Is RIM wary of 2010?

The iPhone is so undeniably popular and is widely believed to be the savior for AT&T the past couple of years. Many of us consumers did not make the jump to the iPhone because of our satisfaction with our carriers. I for one wouldn't consider leaving Verizon for AT&T for a smart phone even though Verizon's selections of smart phones are woefully limited outside of the Blackberry scope. Now with AT&T's exclusivity to the iPhone expiring at the end of 2009, it seems AT&T isn't the only one that should be nervous. RIM will inevitably be adversely impacted by this.
Although overall, I have been satisfied with my 8130 Pearl, I do sometimes wish I had better options without having to sacrifice my network carrier. I will be upgrading to the Tour and hopefully that along with OS 5.0 will allieviate some of my Blackberry pet peeves. One of the biggest for me, is the fact that I have to periodically (at least every two to three days) do a battery pull just for the phone to operate properly again.

Anyone else held off because of not wanting to switch carriers? Do you think iPhone and other competitors like the Pre will collectively hurt RIM's sales on a scale unseen before in 2010? Would love to hear any non fanboy views.

Many cool new BBs are in development too, some of which are CDMA. Also LTE will even the playing field when it's released in 2010 and beyond. :)

I know the iphones are really HOT right now. So hot it burn am i rite? In all seriousness the iphone will greatly impact rim IF it does go to verizon

I disagree. If Iphone or Verizon would have impacted RIM it would have happened already. Simply by it potentially being moved to the most overrated, overhyped, expensive carriers should not be the caveat. In my area Verizon is no better than any of the other carriers. I dont buy into the hype. Read thru the Verizon forum and you will see there is as many complaints with them as any other carrier.

I think RIM will respond, react and adapt to any market changes. I think we (all consumers) greatly benefit from a free market / competitive / dynamic environment. If Rim can't keep up and fails that will probably mean some competitor with better products / services / ideas is providing us with superior stuff...the name on the faceplate doesn't mean squat.

I know that I'm considering (don't tell my best friend, however) the move to an iPhone once it hits Verizon in 2010. Although, I'm not totally sure that I want a phone that can't do several things at once. That as well as the sealed battery, that's such a turn-off to me still.

Originally Posted by GulfcoastGuy

I disagree. If Iphone or Verizon would have impacted RIM it would have happened already. Simply by it potentially being moved to the most overrated, overhyped, expensive carriers should not be the caveat. In my area Verizon is no better than any of the other carriers. I dont buy into the hype. Read thru the Verizon forum and you will see there is as many complaints with them as any other carrier.

Be that as it may, Verizon is the largest carrier in North America and not just talking about Verizon, but all the other carriers that are not able to stock the iPhone yet. Depending upon how many carriers (especially the ones with the largest consumer bases) carry the iPhone, it has to affect RIM sales profoundly. Millions of users are becoming enamored by smart phones in general and Apple in my opinion is the best when it come to marketing and brand recognition. I realize Blackberry is a recognizable brand (mostly viewed as a coporate device), but the iPhone is only a couple years old and as swept through the market on just one carrier.

Verizon's LTE won't help RIM, if the iPhone is available on carriers deploying LTE technology, you can bet those CDMA versions of the iPhone will take full advantage. It's really up to RIM to keep pace not just with "cool" phones but with their operating system if they really want to maintain and grow non-corporate ownership.

I believe the Tour and possibly the Storm 2 will need to perform exceedingly well for people to keep faith in Blackberry and not make the jump next year. Once a customer is lost, it doesn't matter what phones you may have in development unless it is far and away better than the competition.

Marketing and hype do matter in the consumer world, not everyone is an educated consumer that frequents sites like this. Just look at how Microsoft and Dell were new kids on the block in the '90s and how IBM was too smug in their status to react quickly enough. I don't need to go into how Beta was superior to VHS in ancient days, superior marketing won that war also.

Keep in mind the iPhone getting an exclusive on VZW would HURT Apple. Think of how many carrier partners they would lose going to CDMA. I think if anything happens you will see the iphone become more used in the US, and stay the same over seas. RIM is expanding into new markets (China), have over 300 carrier partners, having 1 additional carrier for Apple (possible 4 if you include Sprint/Telus/Bell) wont make that much of an impact in RIM sales.

Originally Posted by DrewDT

Marketing and hype do matter in the consumer world, not everyone is an educated consumer that frequents sites like this. Just look at how Microsoft and Dell were new kids on the block in the '90s and how IBM was too smug in their status to react quickly enough. I don't need to go into how Beta was superior to VHS in ancient days, superior marketing won that war also.

NOW I do agree Marketing does influence things, BUT! your examples are junk.
Microsoft did not grow because of advertising in the 90's they grew because they offered something new, an OS not tied to 1 hardware specification with relative ease of installation and support. Dell, offered personal computers made personal, though I hate Dell's customer service for a Pick and choose PC you can't beat their pricing an options, And Beta lost the format war because of licensing agreements, 1 Beta would not license to Adult video studio's VHS did, Sony had a might higher cost for a license then the VHS consortium did. Sony won the lastest battle with Blu Ray vs HD-DVD because of Marketing the Blu Ray with a Money making PS3.

I looked into getting an iPhone prior to getting my Blackberry, but chose not to because I didn't want to pay the cancellation fee for 2 lines and to change carriers. The things that the iPhone was not capable of doing at the time steered me to stay with Verizon, and I ended up getting a Blackberry. If Apple comes to Verizon, and add additional features; I can't say I won't be tempted.

In my mind the core users of BB's are still different than those of iPhones. RIM still has a huge market share in the corporate world. How many businesses do you see starting to hand out iPhones to their employees? With the Storm, I think it was RIM's first big attempt to steal some of the iPhone market share (correct me if I'm wrong ... I am somewhat new to the world of BlackBerrys.)

So when the iPhone comes to Verizon, should RIM be worried? I would say only slightly. They will still have their core business costumers, but will lose who want flashy new toys that may have bought the Storm. I think the success/failure of Storm 2 (and whatever new touch screen BlackBerry RIM may develop) before 2010 will influence how 'scared' RIM may get.

Here's a nice write up from BoyGenius:
What happened to Research In Motion and where are they going? : Boy Genius Report