[Superfly_FR]

https://www.trefis.com/company#/RIMM
as of date 2011-10-22

[rcheung135]

It's good to see that some analysts still thing RIM is a buy. Of course, there are still others who think it's neither a buy or hold...

RIM is neither a buy nor a hold - The Globe and Mail

[mithrazor]

**** no, RIM is a buy for sure right now. Well it was for sure awhile ago. But it still is right now.

RIM has hit rock bottom pretty much. They will be going up soon. After Q4 earnings, their stock should go up. After BBX is announced. It should go up higher. Then when it comes out, I hope it goes even higher.

[wtom95831]

RIMM won't hit bottom until it's share price falls to zero.

No one buying Playbooks.

Not many buying OS7 BB because who wants to commit to a 24 month contract with a 3G phone? Plus BBX phones have to ship by 1st quarter or RIMM's stock price will be less than $10.

BBX phones are non-keyboard phones. I love my Blackberry for it's keyboard.

Good luck to RIMM, they will need it.

[chrisgotabb]

RIM has far from hit rock bottom. I think a lot of us have gotten too caught up in the "negative tide" being brought on by all the pundits and analysts, and forget to look at facts. Like the fact that their net income for the last 3 quarters was more than all of 2010.

[Dapper37]

It's good to see that some analysts still thing RIM is a buy. Of course, there are still others who think it's neither a buy or hold...

RIM is neither a buy nor a hold - The Globe and Mail

Yep the same guy that wrote that,wrote this.


Apple’s light will fade now that the Jobs spark is gone - The Globe and Mail

[rcheung135]

Yep the same guy that wrote that,wrote this.


Apple’s light will fade now that the Jobs spark is gone - The Globe and Mail

Your point being? Rather than having a one sided perspective, I introduced another analyst's reasoning. Whether it's right or it's wrong is open for discussion. They might not get all the points by overlooking some, or being downright wrong, but it's something worth considering.

There is no indication that this is rock bottom. In fact, the resistance price for 52 weeks has hit $19.29; at 22.77, that's about a $3.46 premium some investors should consider before investing. An earlier poster made the right comment-- it ain't bottom until it hits bottom.

It's the confidence with management and how they deal with product launches that's the concern at the moment.

Of course, this is just my opinion.

[Blackberry_boffin]

The articles are not entirely that off the mark.
RIM is going through the tricky transition to a new OS. You do not want to be doing something this tricky when your stock is already weak. There are so many possibilities from that scenerio. The new OS may damage the blackberry experience, thereby losing existing customers and still fail to win new customers OR the blackberry experience may get a bump up and suddenly start appealing across the smartphone user range. One weakness is that the Blackberry ecosystem has always had fewer apps, with BBX they are set to be even less. That said, one thing is certain, Developers no longer have that old excuse that RIM are hard to develop for.
As for Apple, Steve was a major loss however you look at it. That said Apple are in a way better x 1000 position right now. RIM's predicament is the riskier of the two by a mile.

[Dapper37]

The articles are not entirely that off the mark.
RIM is going through the tricky transition to a new OS. You do not want to be doing something this tricky when your stock is already weak. There are so many possibilities from that scenerio. The new OS may damage the blackberry experience, thereby losing existing customers and still fail to win new customers OR the blackberry experience may get a bump up and suddenly start appealing across the smartphone user range. One weakness is that the Blackberry ecosystem has always had fewer apps, with BBX they are set to be even less. That said, one thing is certain, Developers no longer have that old excuse that RIM are hard to develop for.
As for Apple, Steve was a major loss however you look at it. That said Apple are in a way better x 1000 position right now. RIM's predicament is the riskier of the two by a mile.

I agree with most of what you say, except the bit about apps for BBX, anything that gets or has already been developed for PlayBook will work on BBX + the fact that the Android app player is in the hands of the developers makes me think different.

[MisterMe11]

Not many buying OS7 BB because who wants to commit to a 24 month contract with a 3G phone? .

Yeah, who wants to commit to a lousy 3G phone like a Bold 9900 or an iPhone 4s ????

[lnichols]

The issue is that the market does not believe that RIM can deliver, and are heading toward irrelevance. Yes they have healthy financials (no debt and about a billion and half cash on hand, which is down from $3 Billion on hand a couple quarters ago), but their growth is now slowing, their revenue per quarter is starting to drop over the previous, and everyone except the blindest of the fanboys can admit that they can't seem to do anything right lately. The pricing is reflecting the expectations that that can't deliver on this transition, which is apparently taking much longer than expected. Also it doesn't help that the management team have misled investors in statements on two straight earnings conference calls. They were late with OS7 phones, still late on delivering features that the Playbook needs to be a genuine threat to the competition and sell better, and they will be late in getting BBX handsets out to the market for sure. They need them Q1 2012 (actual not RIM's), but I doubt they will be out till Q3 given RIM's track record. Some people will say the BBX phones can't be late because they haven't given a date, but they were late about a year and a half ago when the iP4 came out and Verizon was pimping Android hard. RIM still has some time to turn things around, I just don't have faith the Mike and Jim are the right people to pull it off.

[kbz1960]

The issue is that the market does not believe that RIM can deliver, and are heading toward irrelevance. Yes they have healthy financials (no debt and about a billion and half cash on hand, which is down from $3 Billion on hand a couple quarters ago), but their growth is now slowing, their revenue per quarter is starting to drop over the previous, and everyone except the blindest of the fanboys can admit that they can't seem to do anything right lately. The pricing is reflecting the expectations that that can't deliver on this transition, which is apparently taking much longer than expected. Also it doesn't help that the management team have misled investors in statements on two straight earnings conference calls. They were late with OS7 phones, still late on delivering features that the Playbook needs to be a genuine threat to the competition and sell better, and they will be late in getting BBX handsets out to the market for sure. They need them Q1 2012 (actual not RIM's), but I doubt they will be out till Q3 given RIM's track record. Some people will say the BBX phones can't be late because they haven't given a date, but they were late about a year and a half ago when the iP4 came out and Verizon was pimping Android hard. RIM still has some time to turn things around, I just don't have faith the Mike and Jim are the right people to pull it off.

Good points but I'm not counting on Mike and Jim. I'm counting on the new blood and Mike and Jim staying out of the way.

[Superfly_FR]

The issue is that the market does not believe that RIM can deliver, and are heading toward irrelevance. Yes they have healthy financials (no debt and about a billion and half cash on hand, which is down from $3 Billion on hand a couple quarters ago), but their growth is now slowing, their revenue per quarter is starting to drop over the previous, and everyone except the blindest of the fanboys can admit that they can't seem to do anything right lately. The pricing is reflecting the expectations that that can't deliver on this transition, which is apparently taking much longer than expected. Also it doesn't help that the management team have misled investors in statements on two straight earnings conference calls. They were late with OS7 phones, still late on delivering features that the Playbook needs to be a genuine threat to the competition and sell better, and they will be late in getting BBX handsets out to the market for sure. They need them Q1 2012 (actual not RIM's), but I doubt they will be out till Q3 given RIM's track record. Some people will say the BBX phones can't be late because they haven't given a date, but they were late about a year and a half ago when the iP4 came out and Verizon was pimping Android hard. RIM still has some time to turn things around, I just don't have faith the Mike and Jim are the right people to pull it off.

I would have most agreed but I think this analysis is pre DevCon and moreover ... pre Sanders. I think some people will really learn against his experience and the evangelistic campaign that is about to begin is a very strong sign. It matches a lot of hopes I had: "stop figures marketing, go real, go to the field and feel the battle."

Please also remember that the Trefis reports is not "sales perspective oriented" but "fundamentals oriented". If BBX delivers what it is meant to be (with the PB as a proof of concept), my personal target is over 30 US$ ...

[lnichols]

If BBX delivers what it is meant to be (with the PB as a proof of concept), my personal target is over 30 US$ ...

Highlighted the big issue there. We keep hearing about potential, potential, potential, of QNX and the Playbook. I have had a Playbook since the first week it was released and I see that it has potential. Unfortunately potential is useless to consumers and corporations, and it is RIM that has to unlock this potential, which they haven't done yet. It will be hard to get developers behind a platform that only has maybe half a million devices in circulation and develop for BBX when no one has any idea when their will be BBX devices available, and available in quantity. From what I saw at DevCon RIM will have the most flexible development platform out there for BBX, but will that be enough given the lead Apple and Google have at this point in the game?

Also RIM won't let developers create the app that is the number one reason that RIM says Playbook sales are miserable: Native e-mail. And I bet that calendar, and PIM apps are being blocked too. Developers have been trying to fill the void that RIM created, but RIM blocks them because they compete with something RIM has yet to release. RIM is stagnating the growth of the Playbook and BBX.

[Superfly_FR]

Highlighted the big issue there. We keep hearing about potential, potential, potential, of QNX and the Playbook. I have had a Playbook since the first week it was released and I see that it has potential. Unfortunately potential is useless to consumers and corporations, and it is RIM that has to unlock this potential, which they haven't done yet. It will be hard to get developers behind a platform that only has maybe half a million devices in circulation and develop for BBX when no one has any idea when their will be BBX devices available, and available in quantity. From what I saw at DevCon RIM will have the most flexible development platform out there for BBX, but will that be enough given the lead Apple and Google have at this point in the game?

Also RIM won't let developers create the app that is the number one reason that RIM says Playbook sales are miserable: Native e-mail. And I bet that calendar, and PIM apps are being blocked too. Developers have been trying to fill the void that RIM created, but RIM blocks them because they compete with something RIM has yet to release. RIM is stagnating the growth of the Playbook and BBX.

This is the dark side of the moon, so often bring to front. To this, I just can say I do understand, but it looks like a smoky curtain. "Experts" are simply wiping out that PB actually does a lot of simple things (often better than other competitors) that meets 90% business needs in terms of secure mobility.

I wrote this weeks ago; the ease of development is the key that will open enterprises doors. They are already able to connect PB threw their extranet at a high level of security.
Soon (this is not BBX but BES and App Store related) they'll be able to RAD (Rapid development) small business applications they can fully control, update, distribute, just by pushing it into Business App World ... wow.
Balance will polish this even more, allowing users to "play" with possible security issues (foreign apps as email, calendar with flowers and contacts with attractiveness rate, PIM to share your business data ...), when they still be able to work in a "encapsulated" highly secured environment.

All of this (which is only a part of what the "potential" is ...) combined with the solid capital and profitability structure of RIM, swipe (my turn !) any doubt regarding future in my mind.

[I'll have a lot to say about QNX and infotainement, but let's wait a bit .. like until CES !]

EDIT : As side notes :
- my reflexion is more PB focused than phone.
- if you have tried 2.0 andro�d emulator, you know that "standalone" (and not native) email client is already a reality.

[laurah2215]

Everyone has different opinions, but I appreciate the posting. Interesting perspective.

[wtom95831]

I'm betting that Bold 9900 series sales will be disappointing just like Playbook sales. We'll see at their next quarterly announcement.

RIMM's all time high stock price was above $140/share, today it's around $23. Enough said?

[MarketRide]

I'm betting that Bold 9900 series sales will be disappointing just like Playbook sales.

What are you basing this off? All my checks having been showing very strong sales. My company (over 10k bb's) has a 2 week delay on new orders because of strong demand for upgrades. I highly doubt we are the only ones.

[rcheung135]

I'm betting that Bold 9900 series sales will be disappointing just like Playbook sales. We'll see at their next quarterly announcement.

RIMM's all time high stock price was above $140/share, today it's around $23. Enough said?

The change of stock could be explained a lot of things, so you're attempting drawing a fallacy. Although the company has had some mismanagement, I think the analysts have taken the stock for a wild ride and crapping on it.

I thought the iPhone 4S wasn't going to sell well after the iPhone 4S was announced. Apple ended up making the headlines with 4 million in preorders.

[Superfly_FR]

I agree with most of what you say, except the bit about apps for BBX, anything that gets or has already been developed for PlayBook will work on BBX + the fact that the Android app player is in the hands of the developers makes me think different.

I think what we call Playbook OS 2.0 is BBX ;-) and I've not found so far any of my installed apps that did not function over the beta.