09-09-11 11:08 AM
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  1. BBisthefuture's Avatar
    Although not a very positive article it does reveal that RIM now has over 76 million subscribers.

    Losing the fruit fight

    They had 55 million subscribers at the end of November 2010. That means they have added over 20 million subscribers in 9 months. That's about 7 million new subscribers every 3 months! That translates into subscriber growth of about 36% over the same period. It also means they will have doubled there subscriber base in 2 years to 110 million by Nov 2012 at this pace.

    Do you remember in july they tweeted that they had added over a million new subscribers in the 3 weeks accross the EMEA.

    http://www.microscope.co.uk/news/vendor-...
    09-06-11 06:34 AM
  2. EdwardBlackberryHands's Avatar
    For comparisons sake what does iOS and Android have? Not wanting to start a fight over who is better just curious.
    09-06-11 03:38 PM
  3. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    For comparisons sake what does iOS and Android have? Not wanting to start a fight over who is better just curious.
    They never give subscriber numbers, only Rim does, The rest only give sales numbers or activation numbers.

    If an android user switches to a nea device that;s a new activation, if a BB user switches to a new BB he's still just the one subscriber, not a new one.
    09-06-11 03:56 PM
  4. EchoTango's Avatar
    What is does show is the so called customer "bleeding" is a myth. What's happening is the market is going so rapidly that while RIM is losing marketshare on a percentage basis, is growing nonetheless due to larger sales volumes.

    However, its unfortunate that RIM cannot seem to take advantage of this unbelievable opportunity to grow the company by orders of magnitude like Apple has done. The stock should be $200-$250 if only the senior management had not become so confused.
    09-06-11 04:09 PM
  5. Frank2029's Avatar
    Not sure about Apple and its terrible iOS but last i read android was activating 550,000 phones a day and a short amount of time before that (2 months max) they were activating 500,000 a day. By now it should be close to 600,000 a day which equals to roughly 18 million subscribers per month. if those numbers are correct that means you're looking at 219 million activations per year. pretty incredible i would say IF thats true....
    K Bear likes this.
    09-06-11 04:11 PM
  6. BBThemes's Avatar
    If an android user switches to a nea device that;s a new activation, if a BB user switches to a new BB he's still just the one subscriber, not a new one.
    additionally if an android user has their phone replaced say by insurance or warranty, its another activation too.

    both of these points are why i never put too much weight into activation figures, much like market percentage figures which are just as disingenuous.
    09-06-11 04:20 PM
  7. DenverRalphy's Avatar
    additionally if an android user has their phone replaced say by insurance or warranty, its another activation too.
    Actually, Google has been advertising their "new" activations as being 550,000 per day, tracked by Google accounts which each android device is tied to. A person replacing or upgrading (whether it's insurance, warranty, or simply buying a new device) their device is not counted among the new activations. If I were to get a new Android device tomorrow and activate it, it would not count towards the new activations.
    09-06-11 05:42 PM
  8. Economist101's Avatar
    both of these points are why i never put too much weight into activation figures, much like market percentage figures which are just as disingenuous.
    The facts don't support you in either case. "Activations" aren't as fast and loose as you argue (as RMJones101 noted), and "market share" is a number that is no more disingenuous than any other market data. In fact, "market share" is a valid measure of relative success in terms of unit sales.
    09-06-11 05:59 PM
  9. BBThemes's Avatar
    The facts don't support you in either case. "Activations" aren't as fast and loose as you argue (as RMJones101 noted), and "market share" is a number that is no more disingenuous than any other market data. In fact, "market share" is a valid measure of relative success in terms of unit sales.
    im afraid you couldnt be more wrong about market share percentages. a percentage is worth nothing in an expanding market, as that percentages` value changes all the time. the ONLY real measurement is actual units.

    Gartner: Android grabbing over 38 percent of smartphone market in 2011 on Symbian's demise -- Engadget

    This article very clearly makes my point.
    you`ll notice the figures for RIM were for 2010 a total of 47.45Million units with a percentage of 16%.
    Now if what your saying is right, and the percentage IS a valid measure of performance, then if i said for 2011 RIM had a percentage of 13.4% then one would easily interpret that to mean less than 16%? which would surely mean less than the 47.45Million units of 2010, i mean thats a `face value` look, percentage drops so the units must too right? WRONG.
    for 2011 RIM has 62.6Million!! yes thats an INCREASE in units even though there is a decrease in percentage.

    this is why percentage means nothing to how a company is doing, considering that based on that charts predictions the smartphone market will quadruple by 2015, that would mean in theory RIM might have 11.1% marketshare, but the figure that really matters, the one which is sales and therefore money and users, the REAL numbers, would mean a increase to 122.86Million units.

    marketshare percentage is like gross profit. it means nothing without substance, the REAL indicator is units.

    also, its noteworthy that android figures as everyones said on half a million activations a day would be 219million a year, but lets call that 200million. now considering that by that same chart predictions the total users of smartphones worldwide will grow by just 162.77Million, now im no super genius, but even i know 200Million doesnt fit into 162Million, and thats before you even start to consider other platforms.

    This is why android activations mean nothing, however if android grows by over 200Million from 2011 to 2012, then i`ll happily be the first to take it back lol
    09-06-11 07:53 PM
  10. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    RIM's base is huge!.. .and when you consider that many are under the category "most influential" ... its even more impressive ....
    09-07-11 10:06 AM
  11. sk8er_tor's Avatar
    The author of that article is obviously not a BlackBerry fan. Interesting how BlackBerry is super popular in some parts of the world and not so popular in other parts.
    09-07-11 10:35 AM
  12. sosumi11's Avatar
    Although not a very positive article it does reveal that RIM now has over 76 million subscribers.
    How does "subscribers" relate to "devices sold"?

    Is one company that signed up for RIM's server constitute as a subscriber or is it each employee activated device?

    Nevertheless, RIM has ONLY 76 million "subscribers" after a decade of Blackberries. Apple, meanwhile, SOLD over 130 million iPhones since 2007, with 100 million of those sales happening in the last year and a half. And let's not forget other iOS devices as iPod touch and iPad which adds about 100 million (40M iPads + at least 60M iPod touches) to the iOS ecosystem.

    RIM has confused the industry with their numbers for years. Makes you wonder, "Why"?
    Last edited by sosumi11; 09-07-11 at 10:50 AM.
    09-07-11 10:38 AM
  13. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    How does "subscribers" relate to "devices sold"?

    Is one company that signed up for RIM's server constitute as a subscriber or is it each employee activated device?

    Nevertheless, RIM has ONLY 76 million "subscribers" after a decade of Blackberries. Apple, meanwhile, SOLD over 130 million iPhones since 2007, with 100 million of those sales happening in the last year and a half. And let's not forget other iOS devices as iPod touch and iPad which adds about 100 million (40M iPads + at least 60M iPod touches) to the iOS ecosystem.

    RIM has confused the industry with their numbers for years. Makes you wonder, "Why"?
    Every Rim subscriber is a paying subscriber, Rim gets a cut from ever BIS or BES data plan, Apple or Android don't.

    Rim makes money from a BB user that hasn't bought a new phone in years, Apple or Android don't.
    09-07-11 10:56 AM
  14. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    So the gist is that RIM is doing fine, and is facing no issues whatsoever?
    09-07-11 11:06 AM
  15. Economist101's Avatar
    im afraid you couldnt be more wrong about market share percentages. a percentage is worth nothing in an expanding market, as that percentages` value changes all the time. the ONLY real measurement is actual units.
    Yes, and the actual units sold by a particular manufacturer directly affect their market share percentage.

    This article very clearly makes my point.
    you`ll notice the figures for RIM were for 2010 a total of 47.45Million units with a percentage of 16%.
    Now if what your saying is right, and the percentage IS a valid measure of performance, then if i said for 2011 RIM had a percentage of 13.4% then one would easily interpret that to mean less than 16%? which would surely mean less than the 47.45Million units of 2010, i mean thats a `face value` look, percentage drops so the units must too right? WRONG.
    I never said that a percentage drop means a unit drop. Obviously that's not necessarily the case in a growing market. You'll note that I never claimed that market share percentage was the sole measure of success; rather, I described as an indicative of relative success (relative to other manufacturers). The example you provided doesn't refute the point I made, but rather the inferences you thought I was making.

    this is why percentage means nothing to how a company is doing, considering that based on that charts predictions the smartphone market will quadruple by 2015, that would mean in theory RIM might have 11.1% marketshare, but the figure that really matters, the one which is sales and therefore money and users, the REAL numbers, would mean a increase to 122.86Million units.
    It's an exaggeration to claim that percentage means "nothing." Sure, tremendous growth can be hidden by a static or declining market share, but if RIM was selling 50% of smartphones 3 years ago and now they sell just 15%, that's relevant data, especially in a market where prices for competing devices are roughly equivalent.

    now considering that by that same chart predictions the total users of smartphones worldwide will grow by just 162.77Million, now im no super genius, but even i know 200Million doesn't fit into 162Million, and thats before you even start to consider other platforms.
    Source on the 162.77 million number?
    09-07-11 11:06 AM
  16. Economist101's Avatar
    Rim makes money from a BB user that hasn't bought a new phone in years, Apple or Android don't.
    RIM's BlackBerry ASP is down to $280 vs Apple's $625 on the iPhone, and I don't see them making up the $345 difference from BIS/BES. As for Android, the only post-sale revenue is Google and Bing's search revenue, which is why Android really isn't all that profitable (and may overall be losing money after Google agreed to pay $12.5 billion to protect it).
    09-07-11 11:11 AM
  17. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    RIM's BlackBerry ASP is down to $280 vs Apple's $625 on the iPhone, and I don't see them making up the $345 difference from BIS/BES. As for Android, the only post-sale revenue is Google and Bing's search revenue, which is why Android really isn't all that profitable (and may overall be losing money after Google agreed to pay $12.5 billion to protect it).
    Actually I believe Rim's revenue percentage from service charges is quite high, if they make $1 a month per subscriber that's 76 millions a month.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    09-07-11 11:24 AM
  18. Crucial_Xtreme's Avatar
    RIM quit reporting subscriber growth a long time ago. Sept. 16 2010 RIM had a little over 50 million subscribers. On Dec 16th 2010 they had over 55 million. So they've had 20 million new subscribers in a years time if you want to believe the Korean Times assertion.
    09-07-11 11:39 AM
  19. BBThemes's Avatar

    Gartner: Android grabbing over 38 percent of smartphone market in 2011 on Symbian's demise -- Engadget

    now considering that by that same chart predictions the total users of smartphones worldwide will grow by just 162.77Million,
    Source on the 162.77 million number?
    yea, i already clearly answered that i think
    09-07-11 11:49 AM
  20. Economist101's Avatar
    Actually I believe Rim's revenue percentage from service charges is quite high, if they make $1 a month per subscriber that's 76 millions a month.
    Ah. So all that subscriber has to do is keep paying the $1 a month for 30 years, and that BlackBerry sold for $280 will have generated as much revenue as an iPhone. Good to know.
    09-07-11 12:00 PM
  21. Economist101's Avatar
    yea, i already clearly answered that i think
    Oh you're sourcing Gartner? Hilarious.

    Gartner: Nokia, RIM Sink, Android Soars, Windows Phone Has Weak Debut - International Business Times

    "Meanwhile, Research in Motion's phone sales were stagnant for the most part, as the company maintained three percent share in the market. However, its smartphone OS share dropped significantly, going from 19.7 percent in 2010 to 12.9 percent in 2011. It now sits in fourth place behind Android, Symbian and iOS, which was the only smartphone OS to increase other than Google."

    Are you adopting the above paragraph too? Same source after all.
    09-07-11 12:04 PM
  22. BBThemes's Avatar
    Oh you're sourcing Gartner? Hilarious.

    Gartner: Nokia, RIM Sink, Android Soars, Windows Phone Has Weak Debut - International Business Times

    "Meanwhile, Research in Motion's phone sales were stagnant for the most part, as the company maintained three percent share in the market. However, its smartphone OS share dropped significantly, going from 19.7 percent in 2010 to 12.9 percent in 2011. It now sits in fourth place behind Android, Symbian and iOS, which was the only smartphone OS to increase other than Google."

    Are you adopting the above paragraph too? Same source after all.
    why would i adopt that quote? your quoting the writer on ibtimes, not gartner.

    as to your inference that i wouldnt want to point out RIM has lost marketshare (although subscribers has increased) is very wrong, as i already covered that in my previous post.
    09-07-11 12:33 PM
  23. Rooster99's Avatar
    im afraid you couldnt be more wrong about market share percentages. a percentage is worth nothing in an expanding market, as that percentages` value changes all the time. the ONLY real measurement is actual units. ...
    Absolutely wrong. Abso-frickin-lutely wrong. Pardon my intensity but I read this so much from so many people I can't stand it any more.

    Market share is a clear indication of how well you're doing vs your competitors, and trends in market share show where you're going to be in the long term. A decline is a clear indicator someone else is eating your lunch. Customers who hear about market share will be concerned about their investment in a product or service in a B2B environment. Suppliers or others in the "ecosystem" (read : developers) will make resource allocation decisions based on market share. Given those, a newsworthy, ongoing decline in market share can accelerate that decline. A continued rapid decline means you're on a slippery slope.

    If you're talking about market share as a snapshot, there is less value in the number than as a trend, though it's still valuable and management's behaviour should be different depending on what that market share is.

    If you're talking about change in market share, it's incredibly valuable info.

    RIM's situation is that of rapid, significant, ongoing decline in market share. Very, very significant, and definitely a situation where management, company and product direction need adjustment to either change that or accept a new position wayyyyyyyy down the food chain. The bottom line is it absolutely needs to be worried about by management and shareholders. It should also be a factor in any business purchasing decision.

    Anyone dismissing market share info out of hand has never run a business or done much work in sales or marketing.

    - R.
    09-07-11 12:35 PM
  24. BBThemes's Avatar
    Ah. So all that subscriber has to do is keep paying the $1 a month for 30 years, and that BlackBerry sold for $280 will have generated as much revenue as an iPhone. Good to know.
    your showing your clear lack of knowledge here. BlackBerry smartphones need either a BIS or BES connection for email/browsing etc, this means paying the carrier (who in turn pays RIM) a monthly set fee.

    also your comparing ASP`s, how about comparing a profit margin instead? yes apple have a high profit margin on devices, but nobody knows what the margin gained on BIS/BES subscriptions are. so you cant make a net profit example, which is what companys need to be able to run.
    09-07-11 12:43 PM
  25. BBThemes's Avatar
    Market share is a clear indication of how well you're doing vs your competitors, and trends in market share show where you're going to be in the long term. A decline is a clear indicator someone else is eating your lunch.
    ah i understand now, apple must be very worried then, as their tablet computing marketshare has dropped from over 95% to somewhere suggested to be nearer 70%.

    or they could be saying `we sell more and more every quarter`.
    09-07-11 01:30 PM
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