1. sleepngbear's Avatar
    Before everybody starts tap-dancing on RIM's grave:

    Bad Day In Tech Land: HP Whacked; iPhone Production Estimates Lowered?

    Shares of Dow component Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ - News) are plunging 9% after the company pared its full-year profit outlook to $5 a share, well below previous guidance of $5.20-$5.28 a share and the $5.24 Wall Street was expecting. The company lowered its revenue guidance to $129-$130 billion, down from $130-$131.5 billion and below the consensus estimate of $130.47 billion. HP's outlook for the current quarter is no better. The company is forecasting a profit of $1.08 a share on revenue of $31.1-$31.3 billion while Wall Street was expecting $1.23 on revenue of $31.84 billion.
    and...
    ...as FBR Capital issued a cautious note regarding iPhone production.

    The research firm says its contacts report production of the popular smartphone was lowered for the second quarter by 16% to 20.1 million due to weak CDMA sell through. FBR expects Apple to produce 43 million iPhones in the first half of this year, implying the company will build closer to 90 million iPhones this year, well below the previous estimate of 100-105 million.
    Things are tough all over. Curiously, RIM's stock is up almost 2% today.
    05-17-11 11:20 AM
  2. hootyhoo's Avatar
    Gadget buyers are a fickle bunch.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    05-17-11 12:08 PM
  3. anon1727506's Avatar
    Apple's production problems, are probably going to be the same problems that many manufactures are going to start facing.

    Would not be surprised if you start seeing electronic devices being sold on eBay in a few months, for more than their original retail value.
    05-17-11 12:23 PM
  4. sleepngbear's Avatar
    Apple's production problems, are probably going to be the same problems that many manufactures are going to start facing.

    Would not be surprised if you start seeing electronic devices being sold on eBay in a few months, for more than their original retail value.
    Check the article again -- those aren't problems related to the actual production of iPhone. "...production of the popular smartphone was lowered for the second quarter by 16% to 20.1 million due to weak CDMA sell through." That means sales of the iPhone at Verizon aren't quite setting the world on fire, so Apple lowered its orders.

    Please, I'm not crapping on Apple here -- just pointing out that at least some of the same market forces that caused RIM to lower its guidance a few weeks ago are affecting everybody, even Apple.

    My thought is, considering the iPhone 5 isn't scheduled to drop until the fall, it is now more important than ever for RIM to get the OS7 BlackBerry's to market on time to be ahead of the next wave of buying ... possibly even start that wave.
    05-17-11 12:40 PM
  5. hootyhoo's Avatar
    It was inevitable that smartphone sales would slow somewhat. Not that they're reaching saturation, but the market has matured.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    05-17-11 12:49 PM
  6. scorpiodsu's Avatar
    Check the article again -- those aren't problems related to the actual production of iPhone. "...production of the popular smartphone was lowered for the second quarter by 16% to 20.1 million due to weak CDMA sell through." That means sales of the iPhone at Verizon aren't quite setting the world on fire, so Apple lowered its orders.

    Please, I'm not crapping on Apple here -- just pointing out that at least some of the same market forces that caused RIM to lower its guidance a few weeks ago are affecting everybody, even Apple.

    My thought is, considering the iPhone 5 isn't scheduled to drop until the fall, it is now more important than ever for RIM to get the OS7 BlackBerry's to market on time to be ahead of the next wave of buying ... possibly even start that wave.
    Weak sell through for a phone that almost a year old isn't considered getting hammered when they still sold over 2 million in 2 months. It may be less than expected but certainly not getting hammered. Whether they deserve it or not, no one is getting hammered like RIM.
    05-17-11 12:51 PM
  7. sleepngbear's Avatar
    Weak sell through for a phone that almost a year old isn't considered getting hammered when they still sold over 2 million in 2 months. It may be less than expected but certainly not getting hammered. Whether they deserve it or not, no one is getting hammered like RIM.
    Oh please, nobody talks about the fact that RIM's sales are up quarter after quarter (with no new phones in over 6 months, I might add) when it's so much more fun to spout off about their decreasing market share. How many phones Apple is still selling has nothing to do with this. You're missing the point. Never said Apple was getting hammered 'like RIM'. The point is, Apple had to lower iPhone orders by 16%.

    FBR expects Apple to produce 43 million iPhones in the first half of this year, implying the company will build closer to 90 million iPhones this year, well below the previous estimate of 100-105 million.
    How much squawking do you think we'd be hearing if news came out that RIM lowered its production of anything by 10%??

    And HP is taking a beating very close to the one RIM took for similar news. My point is, while so many people here like to revel in the imminent demise of RIM, the news isn't so rosy everywhere else.
    sf49ers likes this.
    05-17-11 01:41 PM
  8. npunk42's Avatar
    Thats the unique thing about our little group here at CrackBerry, and other groups like ours. If RIM builds a better phone, we will buy it. There was no buzz around the Tour, the Storm2, the 9650, but most of us bought them anyway. Pretty soon after I got my Tour I was thinking about replacing it. I got tired of the trackball. I have had the 9650 for a while now, I still dont feel the urgency to upgrade. The 9930 looks interesting, but we'll see. Once they get the kinks worked out of the Playbook, I will start showing it off more.
    05-17-11 03:01 PM
  9. Knuw1's Avatar
    Thats the unique thing about our little group here at CrackBerry, and other groups like ours. If RIM builds a better phone, we will buy it. There was no buzz around the Tour, the Storm2, the 9650, but most of us bought them anyway. Pretty soon after I got my Tour I was thinking about replacing it. I got tired of the trackball. I have had the 9650 for a while now, I still dont feel the urgency to upgrade. The 9930 looks interesting, but we'll see. Once they get the kinks worked out of the Playbook, I will start showing it off more.
    I agree, RIM has a pretty loyal fanbase IMO.
    05-17-11 03:41 PM
  10. Economist101's Avatar
    Oh please, nobody talks about the fact that RIM's sales are up quarter after quarter (with no new phones in over 6 months, I might add) when it's so much more fun to spout off about their decreasing market share. How many phones Apple is still selling has nothing to do with this. You're missing the point. Never said Apple was getting hammered 'like RIM'. The point is, Apple had to lower iPhone orders by 16%.



    How much squawking do you think we'd be hearing if news came out that RIM lowered its production of anything by 10%??

    And HP is taking a beating very close to the one RIM took for similar news. My point is, while so many people here like to revel in the imminent demise of RIM, the news isn't so rosy everywhere else.
    I'd be cautious about referring to an analyst's report as if it were an established fact. But at any rate, RIM's sales have been increasing over the last couple years. In fact, both device sales and total revenue is climbing. But Total revenue is climbing at a lower rate than device sales, because the average selling price has been falling. The ASP peaked at $371 in FQ4 2009, yet by FQ2 2011 it had fallen to $304, suggesting that prices were being lowered as a hedge against declining demand. (I don't think anyone believes that RIM would reduce the average selling price by 20% in 2 years for any reason other than reduced demand). That RIM opted to stop reporting average selling prices as well as % sales to new subscribers only encouraged the media to pile on, suggesting major problems.

    Through it all, though, one thing remains clear. A company that executes a product well can be enormously successful. It's how RIM got to the point where they can make nearly a billion dollars in profit in a quarter and yet be accused of "dying." The only real question is whether RIM can do it again. We will see.
    05-17-11 05:14 PM
  11. sleepngbear's Avatar
    I'd be cautious about referring to an analyst's report as if it were an established fact. But at any rate, RIM's sales have been increasing over the last couple years. In fact, both device sales and total revenue is climbing. But Total revenue is climbing at a lower rate than device sales, because the average selling price has been falling. The ASP peaked at $371 in FQ4 2009, yet by FQ2 2011 it had fallen to $304, suggesting that prices were being lowered as a hedge against declining demand. (I don't think anyone believes that RIM would reduce the average selling price by 20% in 2 years for any reason other than reduced demand). That RIM opted to stop reporting average selling prices as well as % sales to new subscribers only encouraged the media to pile on, suggesting major problems.

    Through it all, though, one thing remains clear. A company that executes a product well can be enormously successful. It's how RIM got to the point where they can make nearly a billion dollars in profit in a quarter and yet be accused of "dying." The only real question is whether RIM can do it again. We will see.
    Nice response ... thank you.

    I agree, most analysts' musings are usually not much more than enlightened speculation. I can't disagree with any of your other points, either. RIM has dug themselves into a bit of a hole, but it's hardly insurmountable. Recent trends are certainly not the most favorable, though the situation could be much worse.

    Can they do it again? I think they're on the right track. It's going to come down to how well they can execute. All the discourse and bantering and arguing in the world can't possibly predict how that's going to play out. They've had some home runs and they've had some whiffs, so the past really tells us nothing, othere than they can do it. But I like the roadmaps I've seen. What the article I originally posted illustrates is that there are external forces beyond RIM's direct competitors that can and will come into play before all is said and done, and they add a measure of unpredictability to the whole picture that's going to make a lot of fun to watch it all unfold over the next few years.
    05-17-11 06:48 PM
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