1. playbookster's Avatar
    RIM: Goldman Pounds Table on Z10, BB10; Upside to Estimates - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    Research in Motion (RIMM) shares have continued to trade down by 80 cents, or almost 6%, at $12.98 following yesterdays introduction of BlackBerry 10 and the Z10 and Q10 smartphones as much of the feedback from the Street has been from those with the more bearish views on BlackBerrys prospects, even if the response from the technical press has generally been positive.

    But this morning, Goldman Sachss Simona Jankowski reiterates a Buy rating on RIM shares, and a $19 price target, urging investors to use the recent sell the news pullback to add to positions.

    We continue to see significant upside to estimates over the next three quarters, as BB10 devices drive upside to the Streets ASP and margin forecasts. With 110 carriers completing lab testing by February, 50 carriers offering integrated billing, and Verizon getting an exclusive for the white Z10, we continue to see strong carrier support for BB10. Consumer adoption will decide the ultimate outcome, but estimate revisions should be a positive catalyst in the meantime.

    Jankowski does the math on what the U.K. retail debut of the Z10 today, and the February 5th Canadian debut:

    Using Gartner data, we estimate that the UK and Canadian markets represented about 15% of BlackBerrys quarterly device shipments, or approximately 2mn units. Assuming that the company has 1 month of devices sales and captures 20% market share within the two regions (slightly above its max market share of 17% in 3QCY11), we estimate BlackBerry could sell roughly 1mn BB10 devices in its February quarter. This does not count the UAE, other regions, or potential inventory sell-in in the US market, which could provide further upside.

    Jankowski thinks application support for the platform is off to a good start:

    BlackBerry delivered on its promise that its BlackBerry World apps store would have 70,000 apps. It also highlighted support from several marquee apps, including Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Foursquare, Skype, Amazon Kindle, Angry Birds, and others, as well as support for music and video. Over half of the 70k apps have native support.

    Jankowski ticks off some of the novel features that caught her attention at yesterdays debut:

    Consistent with BB10s browser superior performance on industry benchmarks the Ringmark and HTML 5 tests our preliminary tests show it to be much faster than leading competitive offerings. Additionally, while the company provided a full demo of the BB10 OS, we believe the details around Hub, Flow, Peek, and Balance were largely known. BlackBerry believes its Keyboard functionality will be a key differentiator, with the capability to flick entire words to the screen with a single thumb. It can also recognize multiple languages within a single text or email. In what we viewed as one of the most differentiating new features that had not yet been leaked, the company introduced BBM (BB Messenger) video call capability, which allows a user to share a camera and screen, sharing documents, screen shots, powerpoints, etc. during a video call. Additionally, newly announced BB Remember is an application that can save websites, photos, or other data and separate it into folders, providing a single source point for various projects, themes, or topics. Also newly announced BB Story Maker allows a user to compile music, titles, credits, video, or photos into a sequence or slideshow and then share with other users. BlackBerry also demoed the Camera functionality, which includes user operated focus and touch-anywhere picture taking. It also incorporates Time Shift (the ability to adjust faces/objects within a photo immediately after it is taken) and Picture Editor (background formatting, cropping, etc). TimeShift was previously known, but is another key innovation that differentiates BB10 from others.

    Jankowski has an $11 sum-of-the-parts, a 70% probability assigned to her fundamental valuation of $17″ and a 30% probability for her bull case, and a 15% probability for a $29 take-out value.

    Update: CIBCs Todd Coupland, who rates RIMM shares Sector Outperformer, also had positive things to say following yesterdays event, where the company put on glitz, glamour and yes a little bling [...] The bling of course is Alicia Keys, named Blackberry Creative Director, who plans to be in the office at least for a while.

    It was a slick show which is table steaks in the maturing and more competitive smart phone market.

    Notes Coupland, - In Canada 50% of preregistration at the carriers are not currently Blackberry users. This was a surprise and a datapoint that will be watched closely in other regions.

    Coupland argues investors should at least hold the stock through Marchs fiscal Q4 report:

    We remind investors of our core assumptions for an S-SO rating and positive EPS in F2014. Our view is that RIM is in a good position to successfully stabilize its base and benefit from
    upgrades and market growth that should push shipments higher Y/Y off a low base. The shares should be held or bought through the Q4 report.
    02-01-13 11:16 AM
  2. GTiLeo's Avatar
    BlackBerry delivered on its promise that its BlackBerry World apps store would have 70,000 apps. It also highlighted support from several marquee apps, including Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Foursquare, Skype, Amazon Kindle, Angry Birds, and others, as well as support for music and video. Over half of the 70k apps have native support.
    weren't there clains that tehre were onyl 1000 native apps and most were all ported Android app. i'd liek to know where these peopel get the numbers from, i believe the half more then the 1000 claims thats for sure.

    Consistent with BB10s browser superior performance on industry benchmarks the Ringmark and HTML 5 tests our preliminary tests show it to be much faster than leading competitive offerings. Additionally, while the company provided a full demo of the BB10 OS, we believe the details around Hub, Flow, Peek, and Balance were largely known. BlackBerry believes its Keyboard functionality will be a key differentiator, with the capability to flick entire words to the screen with a single thumb. It can also recognize multiple languages within a single text or email. In what we viewed as one of the most differentiating new features that had not yet been leaked, the company introduced BBM (BB Messenger) video call capability, which allows a user to share a camera and screen, sharing documents, screen shots, powerpoints, etc. during a video call. Additionally, newly announced BB Remember is an application that can save websites, photos, or other data and separate it into folders, providing a single source point for various projects, themes, or topics. Also newly announced BB Story Maker allows a user to compile music, titles, credits, video, or photos into a sequence or slideshow and then share with other users. BlackBerry also demoed the Camera functionality, which includes user operated focus and touch-anywhere picture taking. It also incorporates Time Shift (the ability to adjust faces/objects within a photo immediately after it is taken) and Picture Editor (background formatting, cropping, etc). TimeShift was previously known, but is another key innovation that differentiates BB10 from others.
    also we have seen some demos with the dev alpha that prove this, yet there are still those sayign there are tests done were the BB10 browser shows slower numbers
    02-01-13 11:24 AM
  3. pmccartney's Avatar
    I like much of this article but I really I like this part.
    ...Notes Coupland, “- In Canada 50% of preregistration at the carriers are not currently Blackberry users. This was a surprise and a datapoint that will be watched closely in other regions.”...
    morganplus8 and Neely2005 like this.
    02-01-13 11:27 AM
  4. GTiLeo's Avatar
    I like much of this article but I really I like this part.
    agreed, it was also brought up in another thread and people shot it down sayign where did you get this info. we have heard on different ocations that there are still alot of iPhone/Android users that were previous BB users that are looking to come back waiting for BB to release a competative device
    02-01-13 11:31 AM
  5. pmccartney's Avatar
    agreed, it was also brought up in another thread and people shot it down sayign where did you get this info. we have heard on different ocations that there are still alot of iPhone/Android users that were previous BB users that are looking to come back waiting for BB to release a competative device
    They may not necessarily be switching from iOS or Android or even WP7 but there's a pretty good chance that it is the majority of the 50%. A lot of people still use dumb phones and some of them cold be ordering a Z10 as well. I'm looking forward to getting mine next week.

    Edit:
    This (global) poll nearly confirms the 50% switch over. 35% are coming from the other 3 main smartphone platforms.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...5/#post7897715
    Neely2005 likes this.
    02-01-13 11:37 AM
  6. playbookster's Avatar
    I like much of this article but I really I like this part.
    The troops are coming home
    mrmartis likes this.
    02-01-13 11:40 AM
  7. playbookster's Avatar
    They may not necessarily be switching from iOS or Android or even WP7 but there's a pretty good chance that it is the majority of the 50%. A lot of people still use dumb phones and some of them cold be ordering a Z10 as well. I'm looking forward to getting mine next week.

    Edit:
    This (global) poll nearly confirms the 50% switch over. 35% are coming from the other 3 main smartphone platforms.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...5/#post7897715
    My parents are going from iPhones to BB10. My mom misses the qwerty and my dad just likes to support a Canadian company haha.
    02-01-13 11:49 AM
  8. jagrlover's Avatar
    weren't there clains that tehre were onyl 1000 native apps and most were all ported Android app. i'd liek to know where these peopel get the numbers from, i believe the half more then the 1000 claims thats for sure.



    also we have seen some demos with the dev alpha that prove this, yet there are still those sayign there are tests done were the BB10 browser shows slower numbers
    I believe it's our very own secret agent who's spewing those app #'s.
    02-01-13 11:55 AM
  9. GTiLeo's Avatar
    They may not necessarily be switching from iOS or Android or even WP7 but there's a pretty good chance that it is the majority of the 50%. A lot of people still use dumb phones and some of them cold be ordering a Z10 as well. I'm looking forward to getting mine next week.

    Edit:
    This (global) poll nearly confirms the 50% switch over. 35% are coming from the other 3 main smartphone platforms.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...5/#post7897715
    agreed, but honestly there are not very many none smartphone users that i have seen around, most peopel have blackberrys, androids or iphones, the ones that don't usually just get pay as you go devices, and the thing is i work in construction and not many have the need for smartphones yet they all have them
    02-01-13 11:56 AM
  10. playbookster's Avatar
    weren't there clains that tehre were onyl 1000 native apps and most were all ported Android app. i'd liek to know where these peopel get the numbers from, i believe the half more then the 1000 claims thats for sure.



    also we have seen some demos with the dev alpha that prove this, yet there are still those sayign there are tests done were the BB10 browser shows slower numbers
    Benchmarks do not also equate to real world performance.
    02-01-13 12:37 PM
  11. pmccartney's Avatar
    agreed, but honestly there are not very many none smartphone users that i have seen around, most peopel have blackberrys, androids or iphones, the ones that don't usually just get pay as you go devices, and the thing is i work in construction and not many have the need for smartphones yet they all have them
    Globally there are still far more dumb/feature phones than smartphones.
    Smartphones vs. Dumbphones: Who's the 'dummy'?.
    02-01-13 12:38 PM
  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    agreed, it was also brought up in another thread and people shot it down sayign where did you get this info. we have heard on different ocations that there are still alot of iPhone/Android users that were previous BB users that are looking to come back waiting for BB to release a competative device
    That was my guess as to what is happening as well. Analysts sometimes make this sweeping assumption that people leave BlackBerry because they hate absolutely everything about it and don't miss a single thing. I certainly have iOS and Android friends who say things like "I hated the hourglassing and battery pulls, but I miss the keyboard, notifications, email and BBM". I always wondered if RIM would get a lot of returners with a modern OS that still had distinctly BlackBerry things? The analysts keep talking about switchers, but I think that group can be bisected further into "previous BlackBerry owners now returning" and "never owned a Blackberry and trying for the first time".

    My bet is they'll get a decent chunk of the former, but the latter (especially iOS) will be a tough fight at this time.

    My 2 cents
    02-01-13 12:42 PM
  13. peter9477's Avatar
    agreed, but honestly there are not very many none smartphone users that i have seen around, most peopel have blackberrys, androids or iphones, the ones that don't usually just get pay as you go devices, and the thing is i work in construction and not many have the need for smartphones yet they all have them
    I don't recall whether it was about 35% or 65% but one of those numbers represented the current penetration of smartphones in the (US?) market, according to Heins (or Boulben?) in an interview some months ago. There are still a LOT of non-smartphone users out there, and you can bet that many of them will be attracted to BlackBerry 10, even if it's initially just to take a look at it rather than blindly going with an older platform.

    Given that BB10 will probably often sell itself, when someone just takes a few minutes to play, this is going to be a big factor in getting some of those holdouts on board with BB10, and not going to competitive platforms.
    02-01-13 03:00 PM
  14. W Hoa's Avatar
    Tiernan Ray is a real table pounder. Today he writes:

    RIMM: Jefferies Pounds the Table on Software Prospects, Z10 Sales
    02-01-13 03:08 PM
  15. anon(3896606)'s Avatar
    weren't there clains that tehre were onyl 1000 native apps and most were all ported Android app.
    Nope, only 40% are Android apps, the rest are either Native, Webworks, or Flash.
    peter9477 likes this.
    02-01-13 03:16 PM
  16. w0lfgang's Avatar
    weren't there clains that tehre were onyl 1000 native apps and most were all ported Android app. i'd liek to know where these peopel get the numbers from, i believe the half more then the 1000 claims thats for sure.


    also we have seen some demos with the dev alpha that prove this, yet there are still those sayign there are tests done were the BB10 browser shows slower numbers

    Dude...is your keyboard ok?
    MasterOfBinary likes this.
    02-03-13 06:51 PM
  17. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    agreed, but honestly there are not very many none smartphone users that i have seen around, most peopel have blackberrys, androids or iphones, the ones that don't usually just get pay as you go devices, and the thing is i work in construction and not many have the need for smartphones yet they all have them
    Me, my wife, and my two kids are all leaving the S3 for Z10s on Tuesday.
    02-03-13 07:55 PM
  18. DuexNoir's Avatar
    The troops are coming home
    Led by Vader.
    02-03-13 10:36 PM

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