[Homo Erectus]

RIM earnings Thursday likely to disappoint - thestar.com

[TheStoof]

I'm disappointed that anyone thought they wouldn't be disappointed.

[GTiLeo]

I'm disappointed that anyone thought they wouldn't be disappointed.

this, but they have been pushing pretty hard on the developing nations front so who really knows we'll see in a few days

[Superfly_FR]

“We believe the street will look through this and focus on the specifics of the BB10 product launch in February, especially the specific timing of major carrier launches and the level of cash burn needed for the channel inventory build.
“We expect that RIM will need to consume some cash over the next two quarters for working capital and that investors will tolerate this if sell-through prospects are good.
“That said, we believe RIM’s initial BlackBerry 10 will demonstrate how the company is playing catch-up with the industry’s top smartphones after being leapfrogged in the past couple of years ... we remain skeptical on the long-term viability of BlackBerry 10. In the last 12 months, we have witnessed Android and iOS further penetrating RIM’s core enterprise markets.”

overall perception (from my readings, not this particular analyst)
- 1 year ago : RIM is dead already (repeat 52 times, once a week - The Palm Syndrom)
- 6 months ago : BB10 is DOA (was : vapor ware)
- 3 months ago : Eventually, they could make it
- 1 month ago : Hey, what if they finally make it ?
- 2 weeks ago : Damm, my shorts are killing me
- Now : they will make it, but what in a year ? (the Digital syndrome + the "3 spots only" thesis)

... see what I mean ?

[playbookster]

Obviously its gonna be a bad quarter. You can't make money off hype. They had no new phones to sell. 2013 is the turnaround, not q4 2012

[bigbadben10]

Sure they will loose money but just like the last earnings call it won't be as bad as people think. This has already been factored into the market price. So they drop to 78 million subscribers...big deal. BB10 is coming and it will soon wash away what is released on Dec 20th. If they grow the user base..haha...watch out.

[ibpluto]

No suprise in this news, the questions will now be how bad or how not so bad. I think everyone will be looking at the Subscriber base figures. If RIM did what they did last quarter and increased subscriber base, better hang onto your shorts, because the stock will rocket.

[InWithTheNew]

As a investor you're suppose to look forward, not in the past. Book value for RIMM is said to be around $17. RIMM at one time was believed to be dead, hence the stock sat below $10 for some time. Company managed to still grow the subscriber base in the face of having a hard time in selling their phones. Shorts are stuck as of right now and they hope that investors will dump the stock going into earnings. When else do they think they have a chance to get out. Surely they can't be thinking they can cover the 110 million shares on launch date. I'm not a pro, but we can very well hear some wonderful information during the earnings call. Still enough fear to make me think that the stock will not react negative to earnings.

[anon(4018671)]

Who will be the first reporter to rush outside and say something stupid? Remember a reporter that thought RIM was exiting the consumer market LMAO

[Thunderbuck]

Sure they will loose money but just like the last earnings call it won't be as bad as people think. This has already been factored into the market price. So they drop to 78 million subscribers...big deal. BB10 is coming and it will soon wash away what is released on Dec 20th. If they grow the user base..haha...watch out.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I think potential bad news is already priced in. Personally, I'm hoping to see them at least hold the line on subscriptions.

[chrysaurora]

Here is my prediction for this earning report
- Net gain (couple of million subscribers added, mainly from developing countries)
- Reduced loss or operating break-even (as a result of large number of layoffs)

[Knightcrawler]

I hope the shares drop so I can buy some more.

[silversun10]

i am disappointed anybody is even talking about it, it will be a two hour blip up or down, BB10 is the story regardless..........

[BBPandy]

First of all the Toronto Star has always had a BGR-esk hate on for RIM/BlackBerry, don't know why.

2ndly. I don't think that they will disappoint. At the last earnings report RIM painted a pretty bleak estimate for this quarter. Think they are going to meet or exceed those forecasts. Whenever RIM has not been able to make an earnings forecast they have always issued an advisory a few days B4 the report was released publically. They have NOT done this. To me that means that they are on target. Anyone expecting them to have had a great quarter with massive growth & profits are sure to be disappointed, however that's due to their stupid unrealistic expectations that are not based of facts.

[W Hoa]

Revenue and earnings based on 37 analysts estimates.

RIMM Analyst Estimates | Research In Motion Limited Stock

I believe that if RIM can hold on to subscribers and show cash at $2 billion or more it should be good heading into BB10 launch.

[Acumenight]

I hope the shares drop so I can buy some more.

That's what I had my fingers crossed last earnings... sigh...GL to you

[Zarpan]

Disappoint is probably a bad way for them to word the title. That would suggest that RIM is likely to underperform expectations, but expectations are pretty low, so I think they have a pretty good chance of clearing the bar.

[kill_9]

I'm disappointed that anyone thought they wouldn't be disappointed.

Exactly. We knew the results would be poor to terrible and they will continue this trend until the first full quarter after BlackBerry 10 device sales begin. The share price will have a correction downward unless the investment community (aka profiteers) can be pacified in the interim. One misstep between now and the actual availability of BlackBerry 10 devices in 2013 could see a return of Rumpelstiltskin.

[RubberChicken76]

Anyone want to guess what the results will be like?

My completely un-fact-driven guess (with no evidence to support):

- 6.5 million phones shipped, 8 million sold through
- 300,000 PlayBooks shipped (driven by back to school and Christmas sales)
- $2.5 billion in revenue
- Operating loss of $250 million
- User base rises to 82 million
- Average selling price remains flat

[belfastdispatcher]

Didn't they say the same last quarter?

[kill_9]

Anyone want to guess what the results will be like?

My completely un-fact-driven guess (with no evidence to support):
- 300,000 PlayBooks shipped (driven by back to school and Christmas sales)
- User base rises to 82 million

The 300,000 tablets sold figure appears in every speculative quarterly earnings posting which means by now RIM would have sold in excess of roughly 1,800,000 tablets exceeding the actual initial production run for the BlackBerry PlayBook WiFi model. As for the user base it takes recurring monthly revenue to actually turn an increase in subscriber base to grow revenue from these BlackBerry smartphone users. BlackBerry Social data plans will not enrich Research In Motion unless all of India and China subscribed. BlackBerry Social data plans are low-margin revenue at best and more realistically a break-even marketing gimmick to capture primarily the younger demographic "social butterflies."

[kdna]

I am holding the stock long.

[RubberChicken76]

by now RIM would have sold in excess of roughly 1,800,000 tablets exceeding the actual initial production run for the BlackBerry PlayBook WiFi model.

Your source for the size of RIM's production run? Not a journalist or analysts guess, but is there actually one from RIM?

BlackBerry Social data plans will not enrich Research In Motion unless all of India and China subscribed.

Can you provide data on the gross margins of these plans? What is the service revenue they receive, less the costs of providing?

[FSeverino]

as much as i want to see RIM do well... i wouldnt mind stock dropping below $10 before launch, so i can make up for the mistake i made by not going all in at $7

[BThunderW]

I think $12 is a more realistic target if the news is grim. Don't think you'll see this below $12 based on valuation alone.

as much as i want to see RIM do well... i wouldnt mind stock dropping below $10 before launch, so i can make up for the mistake i made by not going all in at $7