[Superfly_FR]

RIM Can Hit $12 If Enterprise Customers Wait For BB10 - Forbes

(large) Enterprises don't act like nerds. They study T.C.O & R.O.I and face it to users pressure. I believe a Quarter delay won't change much to it. More, Fusion is - finally ! - named and explained in financial analysis/perspective as a level of recovery.
I.love.that.

RIM’s BlackBerry Mobile Fusion software that was launched last November could provide an answer to that problem. The new mobile device management software is an evolved version of the BES that is compatible with iOS and Android platforms as well. With added compatibility, this may not stop employees from switching away from BlackBerry handsets, but it will help RIM stay relevant in the enterprise domain, long enough for its BB10 devices to catch on. RIM, however, needs to convince corporates that the best way to reduce their IT spending would be to leverage their existing BlackBerry infrastructure and use the Mobile Fusion software to manage multiple devices.

[...] we believe that most of RIM’s existing corporate customers are likely to wait for the launch of the BB10 smartphones early next year and gauge the response that it sees before deciding to move on from BlackBerry altogether. The secure push email service that enterprises rely on is RIM’s most valuable division currently, accounting for more than 40% of our price estimate for the stock. We believe that these services are unique value propositions for RIM’s customers, and the company needs to fall back on these revenues to tide over this increasingly tough-looking transition period.

Good morning, people

[leftypepper716]

I hope you're right, but when the stock is $7.30 a share, and NO device for over seven months, the price may drop down to $5.50 b4 that. IMO RIMM stock has about 2yrs almost to even get back up to $12.00 a share (Based on the success of BBOS10) If? it does have moderate success maybe $12.00 by August 2014...if they hit a homerun, maybe $15.00 by then. If? they get drowned out by new iphones and HTC's and Samsungs...I dunno...it'll be a long road to hold.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Doubt that Enterprise Customers are going to make a big difference to BB10 and RIM's Stock value in the near term.

1) Enterprise and Corporate customers are not just sitting around waiting for the next BlackBerry device. If they need to renew a contract or buy additional devices they are going to go ahead and do it now.

2) Enterprise and Corporate customers are normally very conservative on adopting new technologies. It could be several months before BB10 Devices may receive approval.

3) Enterprise and Corporate customers are very cost consensus right now, and they tend to only purchase what they need now, not what they may need in the future. I'm afraid that BB10 is going to be a premium product. If BB7 devices remain on the market at much cheaper prices and do all the the company needs for now, you could see BB7 devices hurting BB10 sales.

Consumers are going to be the key to RIM's future as a major player as a mobile device manufacture and network operator. If consumers like the devices, if they SEE value in owning one, they RIMM will recover.

In the short term, an announcement of a buyer is going to be the only hope of an major increase in stock value. I could see a slow rise over the next couple of months, but not above $9.

[amazinglygraceless]

One of the things that this article ignores are the budgetary constraints of many corporate
and especially governmental entities.

Unlike consumers who have only their pocketbooks to answer to, these organizations are
beholden to stockholders, rate payers, taxpayers, etc.... and are not especially known
for adopting new technology for the sake of doing so, and certainly not if what they currently
have in use works for it's intended purpose.

I have serious doubts as to the overall impact that the enterprise sector will have on RIMMs
fortunes. At this point I pretty much see that market as static.

[Superfly_FR]

One of the things that this article ignores are the budgetary constraints of many corporate
and especially governmental entities.

Unlike consumers who have only their pocketbooks to answer to, these organizations are
beholden to stockholders, rate payers, taxpayers, etc.... and are not especially known
for adopting new technology for the sake of doing so, and certainly not if what they currently
have in use works for it's intended purpose.

I have serious doubts as to the overall impact that the enterprise sector will have on RIMMs
fortunes. At this point I pretty much see that market as static.

Maybe I read the article the wrong way ?
What I understood is that current RIM corporate users may wait a while before considering the "full monthy" to other brand(s)/platform(s) and keep their BES infrastructure until they have a better view of what BB10/MF can bring, as recent studies tend to demonstrate that a "full BYOD" deployment is more manpower and money consuming than their current situation. (reminds me the old fight Windows Server against Linux).

I even believe this may apply also for W8, reason why I was previously saying that MS is not only an opponent, but also another breach in the BYOD "grass is greener" perspective.

I agree the market is static, as global Western economy is under a high crisis perspective and adopting a new technology is a slow process. But this gives more time to RIM to deploy and demonstrate BB10 efficiency and prove its T.C.O (total cost of ownership) and R.O.I (Return on investment) are first grade for their level of security and user friendliness (I think Balance and BB10 sexiness here).

[cgk]

Problem is that "wait and see" might kill the platform if general consumer interest is low. Corporations are risk avoiding - so are we going to see much upgrading in the critical period? Doubtful.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[Superfly_FR]

3) Enterprise and Corporate customers are very cost consensus right now, and they tend to only purchase what they need now, not what they may need in the future. I'm afraid that BB10 is going to be a premium product. If BB7 devices remain on the market at much cheaper prices and do all the the company needs for now, you could see BB7 devices hurting BB10 sales.

That's the point : keep current devices, update BES server (MF) and only change what really needs to be changed, even if they want to embrace iOS/Android for these (re)new devices. MF is a very attractive solution for that. Provisioned stocks will probably have a role here, like sponsored updates from BB5/6 to BB7 devices (speculation).

Consumers are going to be the key to RIM's future as a major player as a mobile device manufacture and network operator. If consumers like the devices, if they SEE value in owning one, they RIMM will recover.

Absolutely, points above where "in the meantime, avoid enterprise bleeding".

[Superfly_FR]

Problem is that "wait and see" might kill the platform if general consumer interest is low. Corporations are risk avoiding - so are we going to see much upgrading in the critical period? Doubtful.
Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

Sure, nothing can do anything if BB10 is a fail ... that's a mandatory postulate.

[cgk]

Sure, nothing can do anything if BB10 is a fail ... that's a mandatory postulate.

OPPS: I actually misread what you said - however I'll leave my original comment below - sorry about that

Well you are suggesting that the enterprise market will save RIM, I am suggesting that it's not relevant during the critical period - the first full quarter of BB10 devices - both are possible but the proof is in the pudding...

Equally you think that QNX and cars will save the day, again I think that during the critical period that it's irrelevant to the actual survival of the company. I'm actually more pessimistic about the chances of BB10 making a difference that I was in the past for two reasons - 1) The failing share price means that it's a realistic option that Blackberry will not exist as it current does by q1 2013 and if it is acquired, it's a complete unknown what that means for bb10, 2) The failure of WP7 to penetrate the market after Microsoft and partners threw hundreds of millions if not billions at developers, carrier relations and marketing - that suggests to me even to get a minor share might be beyond the current financial position of RIM.

Now you might not like that viewpoint - but can you honestly say that neither 1) or 2) are possibilities at this stage?

[pillswoj]

Corporations may be conservative by nature, but executives are not. I was part of a worldwide corporation when Blackberry's first came on the scene, IT wanted nothing to do with them or email going out to them it was the Executives that forced the move. If they decide that they want an iPhone or Android then IT will accommodate them and the corporation will move.

[Shlooky]

With all the investments taking place in BYOD, I doubt corporations will run back to BES and BB10, they will take time.
So the key message is, BB10 better appeal to the consumer.

[drjay868]

I hope you're right, but when the stock is $7.30 a share, and NO device for over seven months, the price may drop down to $5.50 b4 that. IMO RIMM stock has about 2yrs almost to even get back up to $12.00 a share (Based on the success of BBOS10) If? it does have moderate success maybe $12.00 by August 2014...if they hit a homerun, maybe $15.00 by then. If? they get drowned out by new iphones and HTC's and Samsungs...I dunno...it'll be a long road to hold.

Just playing devils advocate here, but who says its over 7months?

[Thunderbuck]

Doubt that Enterprise Customers are going to make a big difference to BB10 and RIM's Stock value in the near term.

1) Enterprise and Corporate customers are not just sitting around waiting for the next BlackBerry device. If they need to renew a contract or buy additional devices they are going to go ahead and do it now.

2) Enterprise and Corporate customers are normally very conservative on adopting new technologies. It could be several months before BB10 Devices may receive approval.

3) Enterprise and Corporate customers are very cost consensus right now, and they tend to only purchase what they need now, not what they may need in the future. I'm afraid that BB10 is going to be a premium product. If BB7 devices remain on the market at much cheaper prices and do all the the company needs for now, you could see BB7 devices hurting BB10 sales.

Consumers are going to be the key to RIM's future as a major player as a mobile device manufacture and network operator. If consumers like the devices, if they SEE value in owning one, they RIMM will recover.

In the short term, an announcement of a buyer is going to be the only hope of an major increase in stock value. I could see a slow rise over the next couple of months, but not above $9.

Your observations about enterprise cancel each other out, to some degree.

For an enterprise that's already on BES (and there are still many, many of them; RIM still holds most of that market, highly-publicized defections like Qantas and Haliburton notwithstanding), BB10 is coming soon enough that it's worth their while to wait.

If they can adopt the new handsets without having to do too much on the back end, BB10 will be an immediate hit. RIM won't keep everyone, but I think they can keep enough enterprise clients to at least give them some breathing room.

BTW, Fusion is nice, and gives RIM a decent BYOD-MDM product, but it's not a trivial upgrade to an existing BES environment.

[kb5zht]

$12 a share. There is a goal for you. Since not long ago the stock was over $60.

[leftypepper716]

Just playing devils advocate here, but who says its over 7months?

Oh I duuno....July 2012 to February 2013 IS seven months. Not sur how you do math, but it Is 7 friggin' months!

[Superfly_FR]

$12 a share. There is a goal for you. Since not long ago the stock was over $60.

A step, not a goal

[lnichols]

The problem as I see it with corporate BB10 adoption, is that they just can't take a BB10 phone and use with with the significant investment they have already made with BES. RIM has made it so you have to setup a new Mobile Fusion infrastructure to bring BB10 devices into the corporate network. This will require additional Windows Servers (not cheap) to be purchased, installed and supported. Also they will have to keep the BES servers running for legacy devices. While they gave Mobile Fusion the capability to manage BES servers so at least you can manage everything from a single interface, the fact that you have to buy new infrastructure I think will ****** the uptake of BB10 in the corporate and government spaces. Government is trying to more with less now with huge budget cuts coming, not more with more.

This is also why I think RIM needs to come out with cheaper, BB10 based, Mobile Fusion router/firewall/VPN aggregation device that will be running on BB10 software (no Microsoft Server required) and have all the capabilities of Mobile Fusion running on top of Microsoft Server, also allow it to act as the BES too. It would be a much cheaper, cleaner solution, because the hardware wouldn't have to support a resource hog M$ server OS, and RIM would make money on the hardware and software of the solution plus the cals (Microsoft and whoever makes the server are making money off the current solution in addition to RIM).

[Fuzzballz]

People who are going to buy RIMM now and wait 2 years in hopes it will double.. better also invest in some antacids.

[Frank Castle]

Considering most IT budgets the last 3-4 years you have a alot of companies with an aging mobile deployment. Some will likely move to iOS (I have yet to meet anyone that is doing corporate Android) and if Microsoft ever figures out Windows Phone that could be an option. Thats pretty much it so RIM is definately needed in this space.

We were exploring moving to iOS and the numbers couldn't work, it didn't help the fact Apple refuses to do any discounts and has weak enterprise support. Add to that RIM explained to us the OS 7 upgrade incentive they have going (and now extended) we basically moved all employees from 8310 Curves and 8800's to the 9900 series for no cost, add the incentive and RIM is actually paying us. Hard beat free and cash back in this economy.

Our long term goal is BYOD, presently its a perk / convience and is mostly used by people that never qualified for a corporate Blackberry. We're working on BYOD as the primary model with subsidy but that will likely take us into next year. Meantime we have employees that are thrilled with the 9900 Blackberry (some didn't even have a camera before).

Your going to need another server regardless if it's BES/Fusion/MobileIron/Good etc and pretty much all large enterprise don't have any physical servers left. I spin up a VM as needed. The capital costs are minor.

Every company is different and has different mobile needs. Some could not provide BYOD, some could limit BYOD. Both Apple and Google have no desire to be an enterprise partner. They don't know how to support contracts like this but they'll sure sell you some devices.

[dbollman423]

One of the things that this article ignores are the budgetary constraints of many corporate
and especially governmental entities.

Unlike consumers who have only their pocketbooks to answer to, these organizations are
beholden to stockholders, rate payers, taxpayers, etc.... and are not especially known
for adopting new technology for the sake of doing so, and certainly not if what they currently
have in use works for it's intended purpose.

I have serious doubts as to the overall impact that the enterprise sector will have on RIMMs
fortunes. At this point I pretty much see that market as static.

Lets see how many of the BIS businesses change their toon when they are being sold data by the Megabyte! BlackBerry might be a hair slower in the 'browser' category, but they have mastered compression. RIM is ahead of its time.

Sent from my BlackBerry intelligent 9930 using Tapatalk

[dbollman423]

RIM/BlackBerry you have an excellent product!!!!! The market is changing!!! Now is the time to beat the doors and shout how data compression is going to save the END USER in the long run!!!!!!

Sent from my BlackBerry 9930 using Tapatalk

[kb5zht]

People who are going to buy RIMM now and wait 2 years in hopes it will double.. better also invest in some antacids.

Better wait more than 2 years,.too, if rim continues to fumble the ball.

[amazinglygraceless]

Lets see how many of the BIS businesses change their toon when they are being sold data by the Megabyte! BlackBerry might be a hair slower in the 'browser' category, but they have mastered compression. RIM is ahead of its time.

This has absolutely nothing to do with my statement. Nothing I said had anything to
do with anyone migrating AWAY from or back to BlackBerry.

How you extrapolated browser speed, data costs and data compression from
the simple opinion that enterprise entities are a static market for RIM due
to, in many cases, budgetary constraints leaves me at a loss.

[soren203]

oh RIM........

[kfh227]

RIMM can hit $30 if they simply execute their plan in India. Once investors see rebounding Free Cash flows, the stock could sky rocket because it will no longer be getting priced with a sum of all parts methods.