06-27-16 12:22 PM
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  1. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    Down from
    600 K units // ASP 310 in Q4 FY16 and
    700K units // ASP 315 in Q3 FY16.

    UPDATE:
    Total smartphone user base down to 20 mio (from 23 mio in Q4 FY 16 and 33 mio in Q1 FY16)
    600K smartphones sold through, down from 700K in Q4 FY16 and 1.3 mio in Q1 FY16

    http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf
    Last edited by Maxxxpower; 06-23-16 at 11:39 PM.
    06-23-16 07:37 AM
  2. TGIS's Avatar
    Aw, no

    Posted via Overheating Z10
    06-23-16 07:38 AM
  3. ardakca's Avatar
    Guess we can kiss goodbye to Rome. But how would they sell without any marketing. That should be adding the cost to market a flagship as positive.
    Jrox74 likes this.
    06-23-16 07:58 AM
  4. cgk's Avatar
    The Priv is a serious dud.
    cribble2k likes this.
    06-23-16 08:02 AM
  5. StephanieMaks's Avatar
    They beat my pessimistic estimate of 450 K. So "Yay" for that.
    PantherBlitz and skinnymike1 like this.
    06-23-16 08:04 AM
  6. Iggy City's Avatar
    Did anyone expect any different?

    They need to get out of hardware.
    06-23-16 08:06 AM
  7. anon(9188202)'s Avatar
    "Things will turn around in Q2 17."

    Wash, rinse and repeat...
    06-23-16 08:08 AM
  8. wilber1's Avatar
    Sounds like one Last chance for hardware later this year with 2 Androids .
    Sairos likes this.
    06-23-16 08:10 AM
  9. Maxxxpower's Avatar
    I don't think an Alcatel phone with a Blackberry Logo on it can force a turnaround.
    DarkJoker33 likes this.
    06-23-16 08:12 AM
  10. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    "Things will turn around in Q2 17."

    Wash, rinse and repeat...
    For hardware? That will be hard to accomplish with out a new product released in that quarter.

    Other than the hardware dragging them down... the $525 Million costs to restructure operations and write down the value of some assets? Is strange - probably has mostly to do with GOOD? But it seems to be a one time "cost", but it hurt and ate into their cash reserves.
    06-23-16 08:18 AM
  11. Polt's Avatar
    Expected that, no way they were gonna sell big with the 'berry' boring atmosphere they're creating.
    Jack Chin likes this.
    06-23-16 08:45 AM
  12. Deckard79's Avatar
    BlackBerry had it coming. They've had it coming for as long as I can remember.

    I'd explain why, but not only is it obvious... myself and every other realist on CrackBerry has already done so, over and over.

    It's like Groundhog Day. Only with Chen in the place of Bill Murray, and no entertainment value whatsoever.

    Posted via CB10
    06-23-16 08:55 AM
  13. ToniCipriani's Avatar
    For hardware? That will be hard to accomplish with out a new product released in that quarter.

    Other than the hardware dragging them down... the $525 Million costs to restructure operations and write down the value of some assets? Is strange - probably has mostly to do with GOOD? But it seems to be a one time "cost", but it hurt and ate into their cash reserves.
    I'm actually wondering about that. There's a different line for "Long-lived asset Impairment" of $501M and "Inventory write-down" of $47M.
    06-23-16 08:55 AM
  14. ardakca's Avatar
    Well as I stated somewhere else. They should add the marketing expenses that should have been made as a plus. Should lower their net loss .
    06-23-16 09:53 AM
  15. kirson's Avatar
    The most amazing thing, in my mind, is how the progression has been so absolutely predictable. Ignore the underlying business issues, and just look at the most optimistic view of the numbers if you play this out. What would Fiscal 2018 look like?

    1. Mobility - declining around 100,000 units per quarter - assume they get it to break even. 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $0.

    2. Service Access Fees (SAF) - declining 30%-40% per quarter - represent around 550% of total unburdened operating profit. 2018 SAF revenues guess = $25 million; 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $15 million.

    3. Software and licenses - growing at over 20% - with 75% recurring. Unburdened segment operating margins of 22%. This is the only part of BBRY that will be meaningful 12 months from now. 2018 software recurring revenue guess = $650 million; 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $150 million.

    So, total unburdened operating profits of $165 million. Say they cut the burden in half from the current $80 million (and that is wildly optimistic), that results in $125 million of annual operating profit. A nice software platform, with recurring revenues, growing 20% per year. That should trade at 20x. So, the value of the equity should be around $2.5 billion. That yields a share price of around $5 per share.

    I think Blackberry is going to be around for many more years. I think they are going to be a successful software company. I think the stock is going to trade starting at $5 per share and is going to grow nicely from there. Maybe a 20% ROIC if you buy the stock at $5. By 2023 the stock should be trading at $13.
    Gallofa likes this.
    06-23-16 11:13 AM
  16. ardakca's Avatar
    The most amazing thing, in my mind, is how the progression has been so absolutely predictable. Ignore the underlying business issues, and just look at the most optimistic view of the numbers if you play this out. What would Fiscal 2018 look like?

    1. Mobility - declining around 100,000 units per quarter - assume they get it to break even. 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $0.

    2. Service Access Fees (SAF) - declining 30%-40% per quarter - represent around 550% of total unburdened operating profit. 2018 SAF revenues guess = $25 million; 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $15 million.

    3. Software and licenses - growing at over 20% - with 75% recurring. Unburdened segment operating margins of 22%. This is the only part of BBRY that will be meaningful 12 months from now. 2018 software recurring revenue guess = $650 million; 2018 unburdened segment operating profit guess = $150 million.

    So, total unburdened operating profits of $165 million. Say they cut the burden in half from the current $80 million (and that is wildly optimistic), that results in $125 million of annual operating profit. A nice software platform, with recurring revenues, growing 20% per year. That should trade at 20x. So, the value of the equity should be around $2.5 billion. That yields a share price of around $5 per share.

    I think Blackberry is going to be around for many more years. I think they are going to be a successful software company. I think the stock is going to trade starting at $5 per share and is going to grow nicely from there. Maybe a 20% ROIC if you buy the stock at $5. By 2023 the stock should be trading at $13.
    Do you think we'll see one flagship per year? Just one.
    06-23-16 11:46 AM
  17. kirson's Avatar
    Do you think we'll see one flagship per year? Just one.
    That's actually one of the hardest things to predict. As long as someone else designs it, manufactures it, and carries the inventory, there is no reason not to continue releasing one Android driven Blackberry phone per year. But it will never be more than a hobby for Blackberry from here on out, to allow the highly regulated industry players to buy something with a bit more security built into the hardware. Maybe they do a touchscreen one year, a keyboard the next year? Maybe they alternate high end one year, low end the next year? But it will be at extremely low volumes - maybe 500,000 per year? But, as I said, this is tougher to predict than the numbers.
    06-23-16 11:59 AM
  18. Sairos's Avatar
    Guess we can kiss goodbye to Rome. But how would they sell without any marketing. That should be adding the cost to market a flagship as positive.
    Chen confirmed today that the two android devices will be released.. It didn't matter how much units they sold because they were going to release them anyway. The hamburg will be coming out first (All-touch). Both will be out by the end of this year or by Feb/2017.
    06-23-16 12:32 PM
  19. eshropshire's Avatar
    For hardware? That will be hard to accomplish with out a new product released in that quarter.

    Other than the hardware dragging them down... the $525 Million costs to restructure operations and write down the value of some assets? Is strange - probably has mostly to do with GOOD? But it seems to be a one time "cost", but it hurt and ate into their cash reserves.
    From the Reuters article on the $670 million loss.

    Blackberry said that reflected a $501 million writedown on the value of the handsets business and other charges.
    06-23-16 01:56 PM
  20. conite's Avatar
    That's actually one of the hardest things to predict. As long as someone else designs it, manufactures it, and carries the inventory, there is no reason not to continue releasing one Android driven Blackberry phone per year. But it will never be more than a hobby for Blackberry from here on out, to allow the highly regulated industry players to buy something with a bit more security built into the hardware. Maybe they do a touchscreen one year, a keyboard the next year? Maybe they alternate high end one year, low end the next year? But it will be at extremely low volumes - maybe 500,000 per year? But, as I said, this is tougher to predict than the numbers.
    I'd argue it would be one rung higher than a hobby. It does compliment and provide value to the software component by being able to offer the complete E2E solution. I think BlackBerry would be willing to stay with devices even with moderate losses (but only moderate).
    kirson, anon(9353145) and Gallofa like this.
    06-23-16 02:16 PM
  21. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    From the Reuters article on the $670 million loss.

    Blackberry said that reflected a $501 million writedown on the value of the handsets business and other charges.
    It was actually "BlackBerry said the net loss reflected a US$501mil (RM2bil) impairment charge, a US$57mil (RM227.7mil) goodwill impairment charge, and a US$41mil (RM163.8mil) writedown of inventory and other charges."

    But only the $41 Million was for inventory and other charges. Might have been a write off of some of the value of stocked BB10 devcies that they know they won't be able to sell for full value. Might have been something to do with the PRIV...

    The other $558 Million ... just no longer existed. Might have had to do with GOOD and their valuation of some assets that just weren't really all that valuable - but it made them look good to a buyer. The key is it was a one time thing..... At least until next year when the decide then need to change how they report their financial standings in a totally different format all over again.
    06-23-16 02:36 PM
  22. ljfong's Avatar
    That's actually one of the hardest things to predict. As long as someone else designs it, manufactures it, and carries the inventory, there is no reason not to continue releasing one Android driven Blackberry phone per year. But it will never be more than a hobby for Blackberry from here on out, to allow the highly regulated industry players to buy something with a bit more security built into the hardware. Maybe they do a touchscreen one year, a keyboard the next year? Maybe they alternate high end one year, low end the next year? But it will be at extremely low volumes - maybe 500,000 per year? But, as I said, this is tougher to predict than the numbers.
    In that case, BlackBerry would be doing what Google has been doing with Nexus phones, where the phones are hobby project to showcase the latest Android technology and hardware designs rather than to make any serious money. The only problem with that is, Google had never been in the market of phone business and could afford the hobby as long as they want thanks to their other very profitable ventures. Microsoft seems to be heading this way too with Windows Phone/10 Mobile. I doubt BlackBerry has the ability nor the desire to pull this off.
    kirson, JeepBB and andy957 like this.
    06-23-16 02:38 PM
  23. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    I'd argue it would be one rung higher than a hobby. It does compliment and provide value to the software component by being able to offer the complete E2E solution. I think BlackBerry would be willing to stay with devices even with moderate losses (but only moderate).
    Agree... From the standpoint of what BlackBerry once was, it might be seen as a hobby. But if you look at BlackBerry today, sales of 1 million or 2 million hardware devcies is a lot of revenue. And I think the EMM market is going to remain very competitive... many suppliers or adding more and more IT software solutions. Being able to pair a software solution with a hardware solution is an advantage. Only BlackBerry, Samsung and Microsoft will be able to provide a complete end-to-end solution, to one degree or another.
    kirson and anon(9353145) like this.
    06-23-16 02:41 PM
  24. kirson's Avatar
    Agree... From the standpoint of what BlackBerry once was, it might be seen as a hobby. But if you look at BlackBerry today, sales of 1 million or 2 million hardware devcies is a lot of revenue. And I think the EMM market is going to remain very competitive... many suppliers or adding more and more IT software solutions. Being able to pair a software solution with a hardware solution is an advantage. Only BlackBerry, Samsung and Microsoft will be able to provide a complete end-to-end solution, to one degree or another.
    This is certainly one of the key drivers of the strategy. But it is a bit of a double edged sword. If you pump the benefit of the end to end solution, you are instinctively viewed as providing a lesser solution for the other hardware platforms. Regardless of whether or not other EMM solutions are any better, the other hardware platforms feel somehow diminished on the Blackberry software. You can see how carefully Chen walks around that issue when he pumps the end to end solution. Certainly a fascinating evolution.
    06-23-16 03:03 PM
  25. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    This is certainly one of the key drivers of the strategy. But it is a bit of a double edged sword. If you pump the benefit of the end to end solution, you are instinctively viewed as providing a lesser solution for the other hardware platforms. Regardless of whether or not other EMM solutions are any better, the other hardware platforms feel somehow diminished on the Blackberry software. You can see how carefully Chen walks around that issue when he pumps the end to end solution. Certainly a fascinating evolution.
    Sad but was very true, BES was capable of managing Android and iOS... just didn't do a very good job of it. But BlackBerry bought Good Technology and they happen to be pretty good at those platforms.
    06-23-16 03:21 PM
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