1. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    RIM's fourth quarter ends at the end of February and I'm curious to know what people think RIM will move in terms of device sales? At the end of their Q3 (Sept to November), they shipped 6.9 million devices, they sold through 8.4 million devices and then they shipped 255,000 PlayBooks.

    This quarter will be interesting, because there are some crazy variables at play

    1. It was December, so there are Christmas sales to consider

    2. The current lineup was already old and the world knew BlackBerry 10 was coming during the first two months of the quarter

    3. BlackBerry 10 launched in the last month of the quarter, but not in the U.S. or (I believe) Indonesia, South Africa or India. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on this. Regardless, it's only been on sale for a month and in Canada and the UK and (I believe) some European countries.

    4. PlayBook was aggressively discounted for higher end models and there were reports of it stocking out entirely at some retailers and well in the UK.

    Put all those things together and I'm not sure what comes out. I'm going to make a surpremely wild guess that:

    - RIM will ship roughly the same devices as last quarter overall and the press will crucify them, as will wall street. Robust sales of BlackBerry 10 in a couple of markets will be offset by steeply declining BlackBerry 7 and older phones. For fun, I'll guess 7 million shipped.

    Sell-through will probably be the same or a little higher due to aggressive pricing for blackBerry 7 phones and early adopter demand for BlackBerry 10 will be good. I'll guess 9 million sold through

    On PlayBook, I'm going to guess 300,000, based upon that UK article and the constant stock-in, stock outs I saw in Canada.

    I'm also going to predict that the press will blast them and the stock will drop the next day. You will see headlines like "BlackBerry 10 a dud" as many journalists don't account the the product not launching in key markets, the decline in OS 7 devices and the BlackBerry 10 devices only being available for one month of three.

    My predictions anyway. Could be way wrong.

    BlackBerry devices shipped: 7 million
    BlackBerry devices soldthrough: 9 million
    PlayBooks Shipped: 300,000

    Your guesses?
    02-06-13 06:37 PM
  2. tiziano27's Avatar
    How many BB 10 in your 7 million?
    02-06-13 07:04 PM
  3. theRock1975's Avatar
    Considering BB10 was just around the corner, amazingly, people were still buying BB7s last quarter. Many markets will still be snapping up BB7 for many quarters. i think rim can easily sell as many BB7 in Q4 than in Q3. Add a few million BB10 from the strongest markets and handset sales should be over 10 million.

    My concern is how media will spin the number of BB customers. When I upgrade my 9900 to Z10, rim will "lose" a customer. i don't think service revenue will drop because the BB10 ecosystem is full and rich now. ex. I have spent so much money on apps/media on playbook alone in 1 year that RIMs cut was way greater than there cut on BIS.

    So get ready for the media spin.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk
    02-06-13 07:06 PM
  4. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    How many BB 10 in your 7 million?
    I'm going to say 1 million, assuming other european launches happen before the end of the quarter. But this is one that I think could be lower, like 750,000 or even 500,000

    Here's another question: What do people think the subscriber base looks like? It declined from approximately 80 million to 79 million last quarter. I think announcing BlackBerry 10's launch date may have cause some people to hold onto what they had a little while longer. Maybe it's flat or rises back to 80 million.
    02-06-13 07:07 PM
  5. ccbs's Avatar
    In your estimate, BB will have higher sell-thru than shipped?

    The channel stock is pretty much exhausted last quarter and exactly how could they have a better sell through than shippied?

    My prediction:
    BlackBerry devices shipped: 8 million
    BlackBerry devices soldthrough: 6.6 million, 1.2 million BB10 mix
    PlayBooks Shipped: <100K
    Subsriber base dropped another 2 million.
    02-06-13 07:18 PM
  6. Zarpan's Avatar
    One thing to note is that if Ferragu's calculations are correct, then channel inventory is near zero entering the 4th quarter.

    Notable Calls: Blackberry (NASDAQ:BBRY): Getting Ready for a Grand Blackberry 10 Debut; Upgrade to Outperform, Target Price $22 - Bernstein

    I'd expect shipments to be somewhat higher than sellthrough then.
    RubberChicken76 likes this.
    02-06-13 07:19 PM
  7. ccbs's Avatar
    That is the best case scenario, I will also provide a more realistic case. Assumption, production start Dec and ramping up with production rate of initial 800K to 2 million per month. Estimated total Z10 produced will be ~4.5 Million, assuming most of them will be shipped for channel stuffing.

    My prediction:
    BlackBerry devices shipped: 8 million
    BlackBerry devices soldthrough: 5.2 million, 1.2 million BB10 mix
    PlayBooks Shipped: <100K
    Subsriber base dropped another 3 million.
    02-06-13 07:29 PM
  8. GTiLeo's Avatar
    I'm going to say 1 million, assuming other european launches happen before the end of the quarter. But this is one that I think could be lower, like 750,000 or even 500,000

    Here's another question: What do people think the subscriber base looks like? It declined from approximately 80 million to 79 million last quarter. I think announcing BlackBerry 10's launch date may have cause some people to hold onto what they had a little while longer. Maybe it's flat or rises back to 80 million.
    the anaylsts will be looking at BB10 sales, not BB7 sales. if the number of BB10 devices shows a strong transition the stock will fly sky high as this is the future of the BlackBerry brand, this will take their hardware into the green again. the Q4 report will mroe them likely all revolve around BB10 and how well BB is managing their cash/ cost cutting plans
    02-06-13 07:33 PM
  9. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    In your estimate, BB will have higher sell-thru than shipped?
    I didn't think much about it, only thought about historicals as sellthrough has been higher than shipped the last few quarters.

    The channel stock is pretty much exhausted last quarter and exactly how could they have a better sell through than shippied?
    Is it? Not disputing you, just curious to know where you got that? I heard they are more normalized but I still am not convinced they are just in time, given the industry and carriers buying in big batches.


    BlackBerry devices shipped: 8 million
    BlackBerry devices soldthrough: 6.6 million, 1.2 million BB10 mix
    PlayBooks Shipped: <100K
    Subsriber base dropped another 2 million.
    This certainly seems reasonable, with the PlayBook number still seeming low to me. Just by virtue of 160,000 sold in the UK alone.

    BlackBerry PlayBook outsells iPad in UK channel | The latest news from the Computer and IT Industry | PC Retail
    02-06-13 07:42 PM
  10. ccbs's Avatar
    I didn't think much about it, only thought about historicals as sellthrough has been higher than shipped the last few quarters.



    Is it? Not disputing you, just curious to know where you got that? I heard they are more normalized but I still am not convinced they are just in time, given the industry and carriers buying in big batches.




    This certainly seems reasonable, with the PlayBook number still seeming low to me. Just by virtue of 160,000 sold in the UK alone.

    BlackBerry PlayBook outsells iPad in UK channel | The latest news from the Computer and IT Industry | PC Retail
    I have heard from the manufacturing side that the production of Playbook had stopped and they will ship all they have left. BB is now operating in a way to conserve cash on hand and focus on ramping up the two BB10 phones. Sellthru on playbook might be higher but I still doubt it will be any significant number.
    02-06-13 08:02 PM
  11. brmiller1976's Avatar
    Total revenues will be...

    Predictions of sales for BlackBerry's fourth quarter?-drevil.jpg
    02-06-13 08:03 PM

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