[Mr.Conviviality]

There are two things that must happen to save RIM from becoming the Myspace of the cell-phone industry.

1) RIM must survive between now and the time a QNX phone comes out.
2) The QNX phone must be a show-stopper.

#1 is likely, #2 is unlikely.

Truth, whole truth and nuffin but the truf.

[ADGrant]

I would have definitely started with a tablet. I mean look at the iPad, everybody calls it an oversized iPod touch, because that's what it is. If I wanted to "test and perfect" any combination of software and hardware, I wouldn't contaminate my existing line of products, I'd create a new one. Also, the reason the QNX phone couldn't first has already been defended by Mike, he said they are waiting for a duo core processor that will fit in the phones.

iOS and Android don't need a dual core CPU, why would QNX.

[trsbbs]

I think RIM could of done both if they had reacted quicker in 2009-2010 and
had the people at the top that didn't think things would remain the same.
Remember it was one of the two CEOs that though they would never have an
MP3 player on a BB phone. DOH!

Either way, it's now water under the bridge..

As you cans see they have let the PB sit and slowly rot while switching over the phones.


Tim

[samab]

The fact is that it wouldn't have matter.

It is the Certicom subsidiary that does the FIPS certification, which was not finished until last week.

It is the same RIM wireless protocol team that is going to code the radio stack on a QNX phone --- but the same team hasn't finished the radio stack for the QNX Playbook (and that's just the data part). It's not like you are going to get a QNX phone right now --- with voice and SMS, in addition to data.

It is the same RIM java vm team that is going to code the java vm on a QNX phone --- but the same team hasn't finished with Playbook's "Blackberry Player". It's not like you are going to get a QNX phone right now.

[sportline]

The phone will be a small Playbook! When they get the things worked out you load the OS on MiniMe Playbook and voila, QNX phone! Everything that they are working on for the Playbook: Native e-mail, PIM, FIPS, Android Player, cellular radio stacks, Wifi Stacks, Bluetooth stacks, etc., will be used one to one in the QNX phone. The hardware will be repackaged into smaller chassis. The Playbook isn't delaying the development of the QNX phone, it is the development of the QNX phone.

Dream on. No one would by a qnx phone without apps, and after pb debacle, what apps is available for qnx? Battery life is also an issue. bbos6 is in one class as symbian anna, and to move to ios5 and gingerbread class you cant use 1100mah battery. Even palm pre2 with webos dont live very long, maybe 9hours. So qnx phone with gestures would need 1500mah at least.

[Economist101]

1) The PB is RIM's "MOBILE COMPUTING" platform...in the future it will bring desktop capabilities to mobile computing....Smartphone's are a communications tool first...Now it would be foolish for RIM to not put a lot of resource's into mobile computing.....This product is long term ....with a long term evolution...The platform is only 3 1/2 months old...it requires time to mature...

Yes, the platform needs time to mature. But at the same time, RIM chose to launch the PlayBook this way (as its first QNX device, which is the prime reason why there's no real app support).

2)QNX phones have been in development since 2010....The PB wasn't the main catalyst in BB OS 7 delays....a redesign and re-engineering of hardware was that primary reason...

You're right. It wasn't/isn't a "manpower" issue; it's a strategic error. As an outsider, that really doesn't give me a good feeling.

In the late 90's Apple was in a similar state in terms of their platform transition to ios and OSX...Apple was on the verge of bankruptcy.....RIM current financial state results in having cash on hand that equals 20% of their market cap.....I wish I had RIM's problems...

The difference is that Steve Jobs didn't ride Apple down into its late '90s position the way Mike and Jim have. So no, RIM isn't as bad off, but at the same time, it's not as though you can cite "absence of visionary founder" as an excuse for RIM's current position.

[DaedalusIcarusHelios]

I think having the PlayBook was a way for RIM to start from scratch on QNX. There's a lot of work to be done still and if they focused on a QNX phone first, we'd still have nothing with QNX on it right now. If they had focused on QNX phones, it might have been on the back burner more to get OS7 devices out the door (which many people would have preferred), but QNX phones would be further off I think.

I've hated waiting so long on these new OS7 phones, but they are almost here and I can't wait. I enjoy my playbook primarily as a web browser (with Flash), and I've used it a bit for other functions too (Kobo, games). All the work that is done with the PlayBook is directly related to the QNX phones. As a PlayBook owner, I'm fine with RIM working out the kinks, since it is not a critical device. My phone is a critical device, and while my Storm has had its issues, it still works well for the critical functions (calls and emails). I'll be happy with the 9850 when I get it. My PlayBook will continue to get better and it will prepare me for the eventual transition to QNX for my phone.

I think PB first for QNX was the right decision.

[sportline]

Whats the breakeven point for pb? 500k unit?
If rim can sell to 10% of rim customers, thats 5million unit.

[samab]

Whats the breakeven point for pb? 500k unit?
If rim can sell to 10% of rim customers, thats 5million unit.

There is no way to calculate because most of the critical codes are going to be shared with QNX handsets.

The FIPS certified crypto kernel --- received 2 different certifications, one for the Playbook specifically and the other for a general QNX/ARM7 platform (which QNX handsets are going to be anyway).

The 3g/4g radio stack is going to be the same.

The "blackberry player" java vm is going to be the same.

As I said it earlier --- most of these critical parts aren't even done yet. So it wouldn't have matter if RIM decided to start with QNX phones first instead of the playbook --- we still won't have seen QNX phones right now in an alternate universe.

[01itr]

You're right. It wasn't/isn't a "manpower" issue; it's a strategic error. As an outsider, that really doesn't give me a good feeling.

You people really astound me. So realizing that they needed to stop making outdated devices and completely redesign their phones with hardware that matches current devices, it a strategic error? They saw, albeit after a long time, that they were being outclassed, and so they decided instead of releasing another refresh with barely better hardware and software (6.1), that they would instead spend a little more time in development to bring out a much bigger step forward (OS7). Sounds smart to me...

In regards to the Playbook being developed before the QNX phone. I agree with some people that it was a very smart move from RIM. Smartphone sales are the lifeblood of RIM, tablets are not. If they would have released a v1.0 software like the Playbook OS as their flagship smartphone, they would have lost a lot. As of right now, they haven't lost anything by releasing the Playbook. Before it's launch, they had 0% market share in the tablet industry, now they have more than that. Even a small gain is still a gain. Now they can polish this software for the market that really matters to them, smartphones. If they hadn't done this, and released the same quality software as the PB on their already-established line of smartphones, the results would have been disastrous.

[pbfan]

while BBOS will be for low end message phones.

Super phones will run java applications (Android and BBOS) though java players. There will be more developers for QNX when native
SDK becomes available.

No matter if rimm developed PB or not, the super phone does not really have a chance to come out this year because of development cycles.

By developing PB, rim has a QNX product this year, has a chance for QNX to be tested extensively, and has much reduced risks.

[JasW]

Astounded? Note that it is an tech analyst who is astounding you, not just the posters here who agree with him. Note also that a number of other tech analysts have said the same thing.

I'd be astounded by the number of posters who disagree with the analyst, but of course this is CB World, where the Storm and the PlayBook are roaring successes judging by the number of posts in their respective subforums as compared to subforums devoted to other BB devices.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that RIM should have released a QNX smartphone in April instead of releasing the PlayBook. Just that they would have been a lot farther along if they had focused first on developing a QNX smartphone, presumably getting it out sometime later this year, then blowing it up into the PlayBook (because the tablet market is so new and RIM is/was not in a make or break position with that market -- unlike they are with the smartphone market).

[lnichols]

There is no way to calculate because most of the critical codes are going to be shared with QNX handsets.

The FIPS certified crypto kernel --- received 2 different certifications, one for the Playbook specifically and the other for a general QNX/ARM7 platform (which QNX handsets are going to be anyway).

The 3g/4g radio stack is going to be the same.

The "blackberry player" java vm is going to be the same.

As I said it earlier --- most of these critical parts aren't even done yet. So it wouldn't have matter if RIM decided to start with QNX phones first instead of the playbook --- we still won't have seen QNX phones right now in an alternate universe.

Actually the FIPS certification was done extremely clever by RIM. It is not specific to the Playbook. Here is what the security policy says:

The combinations of computer hardware and OS include the following representative platform:
BlackBerry Tablet OS version 6.6, ARMv7
The BlackBerry Tablet Cryptographic Kernel is also suitable for any manufacturer�s platform that has compatible processors, equivalent or larger system configurations, and compatible OS versions. For example, an identical BlackBerry Tablet Cryptographic Kernel can be used on any compatible BlackBerry Tablet OS for ARM processors. The BlackBerry Tablet Cryptographic Kernel will run on such platforms and OS versions while maintaining its compliance to the FIPS 140-2 Level 1 requirements.

So a QNX phone with a ARMv7 processor and the 6.6 crypto kernel and Tablet OS is FIPS approved out of the gate.

[Foreverup]

So a QNX phone with a ARMv7 processor and the 6.6 crypto kernel and Tablet OS is FIPS approved out of the gate.

That can't be right the Kernal version on the Playbook is only 5.6

[01itr]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that RIM should have released a QNX smartphone in April instead of releasing the PlayBook. Just that they would have been a lot farther along if they had focused first on developing a QNX smartphone, presumably getting it out sometime later this year, then blowing it up into the PlayBook (because the tablet market is so new and RIM is/was not in a make or break position with that market -- unlike they are with the smartphone market).

Any v1.0 software is a risk, they were smart releasing it on a product that doesn't mean much to the company, compared to releasing it for the first time on their smartphones. Just my opinion

[lnichols]

That can't be right the Kernal version on the Playbook is only 5.6

Yep you are right. Should be 5.6 for Crypto Kernel. Not sure what the 6.6 in the Security doc is referring to. Maybe a typo or the QNX Neutrino Kernel version 6.6.

[Economist101]

You people really astound me. So realizing that they needed to stop making outdated devices and completely redesign their phones with hardware that matches current devices, it a strategic error? They saw, albeit after a long time, that they were being outclassed, and so they decided instead of releasing another refresh with barely better hardware and software (6.1), that they would instead spend a little more time in development to bring out a much bigger step forward (OS7). Sounds smart to me...

You need to read more carefully. The error was not deciding to up the specs; the error was not realizing the specs needed to be upped until they were well into finishing the devices with the old specs. It was this late change of direction which created the incredibly long gap between phone releases, which has only exacerbated their loss of share.

[samab]

That can't be right the Kernal version on the Playbook is only 5.6

It was labeled as 6.6 because it is based on the yet-to-be released QNX 6.6.0

[samab]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that RIM should have released a QNX smartphone in April instead of releasing the PlayBook. Just that they would have been a lot farther along if they had focused first on developing a QNX smartphone, presumably getting it out sometime later this year, then blowing it up into the PlayBook (because the tablet market is so new and RIM is/was not in a make or break position with that market -- unlike they are with the smartphone market).

That is the only legitimate question out of the whole thread.

Could RIM make a QNX phone before the critical christmas holiday season if they didn't have the Playbook to work with? If they can't then there is no reason to debate it.

RIM didn't buy TAT until last December, after the Playbook UI being locked down in design. Dual-core handset CPU isn't widely available yet.

[aawilson]

iOS and Android don't need a dual core CPU, why would QNX.

"Patrick Spence, speaking to The Guardian, commented that the three handsets launched yesterday won't ever be able to play Flash content, as "you need dual-core processors to render Flash in the way that we would want to do it. The processing power isn't there yet." "
Taken from Gizmodo - All Those New BlackBerrys? They’re Already Old Hat

iOS doesn't render flash, and Android would do it better with more processing power. It doesn't need it, but I think it would be nicer.

FYI: The next iPhone will almost certainly contain the dual-core A5 chip, as found in the iPad 2. Also ATT has the Motorola ATRIX, that is dual-core.

[CGI]

You people really astound me. So realizing that they needed to stop making outdated devices and completely redesign their phones with hardware that matches current devices, it a strategic error?

Yes. ^ That too was a strategic error.

[Fuzzballz]

You people really astound me. So realizing that they needed to stop making outdated devices and completely redesign their phones with hardware that matches current devices, it a strategic error?

Timing is everything.

[JasW]

Yes, an error in timing, that's correct. Hindsight is 20-20, but the writing was on the wall back in 2007 when people went nuts over the iPhone. That is when RIM should have realized that the aging BB OS wasn't going to fly much longer.

[berklon]

Yes, an error in timing, that's correct. Hindsight is 20-20, but the writing was on the wall back in 2007 when people went nuts over the iPhone. That is when RIM should have realized that the aging BB OS wasn't going to fly much longer.

Exactly. What made it worse was not only did they fail to take Apple seriously in 2007... they sat on their butts still in 2008 and 2009 while Apple and Google were taking over. It's one thing to not identify a potential future threat, but it's another to ignore them when they're in the midst of eating your lunch.

We're in the 2nd half of 2011 and RIM still doesn't have a product on the market that really competes. The newly announced hardware with OS7 only addresses the competition partially and will only be short-lived as iPhone 5 and other Android phones hit the market.

When the QNX phone is finally released, it better make non-Blackberry user's jaws drop - or they're in HUGE trouble. No excuses - impress us or perish.