[purijagmohan]

Misek says poor sell through of OS 7 devices and when I look up at Sprint website bold 9930 is out of stock and been that way for 7 days.

Has there ever been an instance of a blackberry device selling out so soon and even more important to stay out of stock for 7 days now??

This tells me there is not enough excess supply or else it would have been stocked already. Your thoughts??

[Shao128]

Who is Peter Misek and why do we care what he thinks?

[avt123]

We have no clue how much stock any of the carriers had. I am looking forward to finding out how many 9900s RIM has sold. It definitely seems like it is a popular device based on what we know/don't know so far.

[limh5]

Misek says poor sell through of OS 7 devices and when I look up at Sprint website bold 9930 is out of stock and been that way for 7 days.

Your thoughts??

Normally, I don't care too much about what bearish analysts say, because they have to continually justify their bearishness with negative reports. However, if I recall correctly, Peter Misek has been covering RIM since 2001 (for 10 years) so I do look into his research. I was going to write a rebuttal to Misek's report on my investing blog.

1) Misek wrote that: “we believe sell-in of new BB OS 7 phones was just okay due to carriers’ lukewarm response, and sales trends for older models continued to deteriorate.”
I disagree, with your example of Sprint selling out as an example. Another example being that out of about 35 colleagues I surveyed, 7 have the new Bold 9900.

2) Misek thinks RIM will record 12 million handsets shipped, and he thinks RIM will miss numbers on fiscal Q2 that ended last month. The Street is modeling $4.47 billion in revenue and 87 cents in EPS, but Misek thinks RIM may deliver just $4.4 billion and 77 cents.
I disagree. I see RIM shipping 13 million+ units when they announce results Sept 15, beating consensus of $4.47 billion revenue (I estimate $4.55 billion) and beating consensus of $0.87 of EPS (I estimate $0.93).

3) Misek thinks the fiscal Q3 outlook may be “lackluster” as well. Compared to consensus $5.23 billion and $1.36 per share, he’s modeling $4.8 billion and 92 cents.
I disagree. With the launch of 8 OS 7 models (and the 9380 and BB Cyclone TV box to come before the end of the year) I expect RIM to give really strong guidance for Q3. By really strong I mean definitely higher than Misek's, and very likely higher than consensus of $1.36 EPS and $5.23 billion in revenue.

We will see on Sept 15 who is right.

[limh5]

Who is Peter Misek and why do we care what he thinks?

Peter Misek is a Managing Director at Jefferies & Company. Before that he was a Managing Director, Director of Research and Global Technology at Canaccord Adams. Before that he was a Director at Scotia Capital.
Here is his linkedin page: Peter Misek | LinkedIn

As for what I think of his report, see comment above.

[BBThemes]

dont forget misek is the same analyst that said the playbook would get 3-4 hours of battery life!

also iv not seen one report of any analysts doing any inventory/sell thru checks outside of north america (and iv only seen one for canada amongst those), so for a throrough check surely basing your report on what last quarters figures showed to be less than 45% of RIM`s market would seem very shortsighted.

[purijagmohan]

1) Misek wrote that: �we believe sell-in of new BB OS 7 phones was just okay due to carriers� lukewarm response, and sales trends for older models continued to deteriorate.�
I disagree, with your example of Sprint selling out as an example. Another example being that out of about 35 colleagues I surveyed, 7 have the new Bold 9900.

We will see on Sept 15 who is right.

Thanks for detailed reply.What I find surprising is Bold 9900 has been out of stock for 7 days.I think that's highly unusual for a device that launched less than 3 weeks back.Only reason I can come up with is demand has been beyond Sprint/RIM's own expectations at all carriers.That's why there is no excess supply anywhere.

Has there ever been any device blackberry/other platforms that faced such situations??

[Economist101]

Thanks for detailed reply.What I find surprising is Bold 9900 has been out of stock for 7 days.I think that's highly unusual for a device that launched less than 3 weeks back.Only reason I can come up with is demand has been beyond Sprint/RIM's own expectations at all carriers.That's why there is no excess supply anywhere.

Has there ever been any device blackberry/other platforms that faced such situations??

Hmmm. . .the iPhone 3G, 3GS and 4, the Evo 4G, the HTC Incredible, the Droid X, etc.

[purijagmohan]

Hmmm. . .the iPhone 3G, 3GS and 4, the Evo 4G, the HTC Incredible, the Droid X, etc.

Thanks.Bold 9900 might be the only blackberry though to belong to that distinguished group.That certainly is a positive for RIM and welcome change considering the negativity.

[avt123]

Wasn't the Storm a big seller initially as well? All though I do remember hearing that it had a ridiculously high return rate and remember people on these forums going through like 3-7 of them before they got one they really liked.

[i7guy]

It is true that some people went through a number of them for whatever reasons. I also know a lot of people who only complained about the software.

Me, I've had mine for a year and a half with no issues including 2 drops on cement without a case.

[avt123]

It is true that some people went through a number of them for whatever reasons. I also know a lot of people who only complained about the software.

Me, I've had mine for a year and a half with no issues including 2 drops on cement without a case.

My bad I meant the original Storm 9500/9530. I know the 9550 was built a lot better. I never owned a Storm, but just from my limited use with the devices I was able to tell the 9550 was much better.

I also believe the 9500/9530 sold much better than the 9550 due to the initial excitement of an "iPhone-like" device finally coming to VZW. The LG Dare was the only one before that on VZW.

[Gucci33]

Tmobile is also sold out in most stores and online.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[SmarterThemes]

Who is Peter Misek and why do we care what he thinks?

exactly

[SurrealCivic]

Misek is not as wrong as you all think.

First of all, what everyone is forgetting is that: AT&T has yet to sell the flagship BlackBerry Bold 9900. RIM will struggle in earnings due to this outcome.

Even though 9810 and the 9860 are on sale at AT&T, sell through has yet to be determined and with the quarter ending August 27th I can't see this accumulating that much revenue.

Sprint, Verizon just launched the 9850 and even though Sprint is out of stock, sales through also needs to be determined. Similar as above with AT&T, RIM's quarter ended Aug 27th, I can't see that much revenue accumulating due to these sales.

9860 and 9360/9370 also launched late into August amongst carriers in North America and world wide, again; a little too late.

The positive here is that BlackBerry Bold 9900/9930 launched in time for back to school specials on majority of the large carriers world wide. As you might remember, RIM said on their last earnings call that they will miss back to school specials. Well, they got their flagship 9900/9930 out there just in time (except AT&T of course)

In conclusion, RIM missed to get a lot of sales of their current OS7 devices within their recent quarter that ended August 27th. Big question: Are the sales of the very popular and quite amazing Bold 9900/9930 on most carriers enough to offset the late release of their other OS7 devices especially with the absence of AT&T in the flagship product?

We will see Sept 15th when RIM releases earnings.

Thanks,
@SurrealCivic
follow me on twitter for more $RIMM news and analysis

[Rootbrian]

All I know from all these rumors, is the newest crackberries are selling like hot crazy. maybe people are buying in order to resell on ebay? Explains why there are so many sales. Look up Blackberry 9900 and Blackberry 9930 on ebay, the results are HOLY SH!T.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com