01-31-14 04:34 AM
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  1. Fidel Mercado's Avatar
    Never heard Ford saying they will keep on producing cars. Means Ford won't make any cars in 2014!?
    Ford's future isn't in question-there's no need for PR (for now). When Ford was struggling financially (pre-stimulus), there were all kinds of reports on thier future plans and model offerings..Not a good comparison
    Last edited by Fidel Mercado; 11-26-13 at 02:47 PM. Reason: wanted to add not a good comparison
    11-26-13 02:27 PM
  2. boi2012's Avatar
    Good points and thoroughly thought-out. However, if the OP is still reading these comments, I'd be interested in his take:

    1) Blackberry has sold in excess of 3.5 million 10 handsets by now. We do not know the exact number yet. The holiday season is coming up, a new device has been released, and obviously they have to do something with the unsold inventory. Prices will continue to drop. It's difficult for me to imagine a scenario where BB *quickly* gets out of the hardware business. You could be looking at 5 million+ BB10 handsets in active use in another couple of months. While that is a far, far cry from their original projections, it is still a lot of human beings using their product. Humans who are buying apps, using BBM, some of those users in military and high-level corporate environments, etc...how "easy" will it be to just drop all these paying customers? What kind of branding will that do for BB, in reverse? I'm not saying I know, but if I was Chen, these would be meaningful issues to consider.
    2) The link between BB10 phones and BES10 - Chris Umi. has pointed this out multiple times, and he is quite informed, to say the least. As Blackberry keeps working on seeding BES10 and related security-type solutions, getting actual BB devices out there is part of the process. We have seen some bigtime commitments come in already.
    3) The use of BB devices in military and governmental institutions. This is the biggest one, to me. Imagine a scenario where, after the job cuts and restructuring, and a theoretical new direction and/or less devices being released total, Blackberry could consistently break even on their phones overall. Would it make sense to attempt to exit a business that is being actively used by THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES ...? I realize this is something of an intangible, but it merits attention. The President is literally relying upon your product. So are other high level governmental personnel. So are many military institutions around the world. The point? The point is that your product has something that iPhones (and other toys) do not - it is a sophisticated and secure device.
    It's tough for me to imagine a scenario where a legitimate attempt is not made to save the hardware business, in lieu of this aspect especially. Does it not stand to reason that the US Military would prefer Blackberry stay in the hardware game?
    I would call this the argument from power, and for any readers of Chomsky or Zinn, it should hold some water.

    All things considered I think Chen does have a decision to make going forward, but to me it might be more of a "how can we keep this going, in some format, but at least break even" rather than "how can we kill this as quickly as possible and shrink the company to 1000 employees". The latter line of thought strikes me as quite improbable.
    1) Playbook
    11-26-13 02:38 PM
  3. ikalinin's Avatar
    You can't, because he didn't. As you quoted above, he merely asked a question, he didn't provide an answer.
    The question was hypothetical.
    What is BlackBerry without the device? The question is, can we do more in that?
    this answers the question. BlackBerry isn't BlackBerry without the device. the better question is, how can they sell MORE of them.
    Vorkosigan likes this.
    11-26-13 02:55 PM
  4. BBZ10wannabe's Avatar
    Let's remember that Prem Watsa has joined to turn this company around and the board has refused offers that would have seen Blackberry broken up. In my opinion, this leads me to believe that while Blackberry is slimming down it's overhead as quickly as possibly to put a floor under it's operations it still wants to maintain it device portfolio to be able to offer end-to-end solutions to prosumers. I expect to see asset sales including buildings etc. Even if the device segment cannot be recovered to break-even, getting it close is probably the best marketing dollars you can spend. i.e. yes we lose $200 million /year on hardware but it allows us to answer yes to our customers when they ask if we can give them an end-to-end solution. If you say no.. well you can kiss many current and potential future customers goodbye. Obviously this only works if overall Blackberry can stabilize it operations and return to profitability.
    11-26-13 02:58 PM
  5. dbmalloy's Avatar
    Handsets will probably end up beinmg props so to speak.... BB needs a tangable to compliment the software side.... do not see how BB being in a niche markegt can make a go of it just doing backend network software.... especially since rightg now they are practically givnig the services away... not a great money making venture on that side... seems to me they need to market a complete package to enterprise customers... the total package so to speak.... unless they can radically expland the software side do not see how they will exist without hardware....
    11-26-13 02:59 PM
  6. ikalinin's Avatar
    Good points and thoroughly thought-out. However, if the OP is still reading these comments, I'd be interested in his take:

    1) Blackberry has sold in excess of 3.5 million 10 handsets by now. We do not know the exact number yet. The holiday season is coming up, a new device has been released, and obviously they have to do something with the unsold inventory. Prices will continue to drop. It's difficult for me to imagine a scenario where BB *quickly* gets out of the hardware business. You could be looking at 5 million+ BB10 handsets in active use in another couple of months. While that is a far, far cry from their original projections, it is still a lot of human beings using their product. Humans who are buying apps, using BBM, some of those users in military and high-level corporate environments, etc...how "easy" will it be to just drop all these paying customers? What kind of branding will that do for BB, in reverse? I'm not saying I know, but if I was Chen, these would be meaningful issues to consider.
    2) The link between BB10 phones and BES10 - Chris Umi. has pointed this out multiple times, and he is quite informed, to say the least. As Blackberry keeps working on seeding BES10 and related security-type solutions, getting actual BB devices out there is part of the process. We have seen some bigtime commitments come in already.
    3) The use of BB devices in military and governmental institutions. This is the biggest one, to me. Imagine a scenario where, after the job cuts and restructuring, and a theoretical new direction and/or less devices being released total, Blackberry could consistently break even on their phones overall. Would it make sense to attempt to exit a business that is being actively used by THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES ...? I realize this is something of an intangible, but it merits attention. The President is literally relying upon your product. So are other high level governmental personnel. So are many military institutions around the world. The point? The point is that your product has something that iPhones (and other toys) do not - it is a sophisticated and secure device.
    It's tough for me to imagine a scenario where a legitimate attempt is not made to save the hardware business, in lieu of this aspect especially. Does it not stand to reason that the US Military would prefer Blackberry stay in the hardware game?
    I would call this the argument from power, and for any readers of Chomsky or Zinn, it should hold some water.

    All things considered I think Chen does have a decision to make going forward, but to me it might be more of a "how can we keep this going, in some format, but at least break even" rather than "how can we kill this as quickly as possible and shrink the company to 1000 employees". The latter line of thought strikes me as quite improbable.
    I would like to add that Porsche vs General Motors is like BB vs Apple.
    Porsche has under 20,000 employees.
    GM has over 200,000.

    Porsche
    Production output 143,096
    Revenue €13.9 billion (US 18.8 billion)
    Operating income €2.44 billion (US 3.31 billion)

    GM
    Production output 9,489,000
    Revenue US$150.276 billion
    Operating income US$ 9.287 billion

    who care's if BB is not #1, or #2, or #3.. as long as they stay profitable and relevant.
    android runtime for app people.
    11-26-13 03:05 PM
  7. heymaggie's Avatar
    Except that a Porsche and a GM car don't cost the same.
    11-26-13 03:11 PM
  8. GTiLeo's Avatar
    even if they don't sell hardware anymore they will still need a marketing team for whatever product they have and they will still need an operations team to oversee and manage the way to company operates.

    this is just your opinion, and at this point in time opinions like this should really stay to ones self, there is really not enough evidence to make this judgement claim
    11-26-13 03:20 PM
  9. IdroidBB10's Avatar
    Only time will tell.
    11-26-13 03:20 PM
  10. techvisor's Avatar
    Try not to make things up...
    try to think rationally and objectively
    rnhld likes this.
    11-26-13 03:22 PM
  11. DaedalusIcarusHelios's Avatar
    ...
    And as for comparing to the situation a year ago, prior to the BB10 launch, there's really no comparison. BB's situation, with 3 abysmal quarters and BB10s failure in the marketplace, another $1B write-down, plus the failed sale of the company and being in debt for the first time in forever, is far, FAR worse than it was then.
    ...
    Since when did BB get in debt? They would have been if they went private (which didn't happen). In fact, they are adding to their cash stockpile through the investment and the early tax break they are trying to get. I don't think the recent investment deal can be considered debt, but I could be wrong.
    11-26-13 03:49 PM
  12. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    As I said, they currently have enough phones in stock to maintain the sales level they are at for almost 2 years. They don't need to make any more phones to stay in the BES10 business and have a total end-to-end solution, at least for the near future.
    Sorry Troy, but they can't sit still with their current devices. If they are going to stay in the handset business even short term they need to create new devices. If they are going to exit they need to exit ASAP. This idea that they can slowly sell off current inventory is asinine. It will be plainly obvious to folks that BBRY has no intention of staying in the handset business if they are not creating new devices. In a case like this do you see people rushing out to buy a current device at list price just because they have two years worth of inventory? Would you? Probably not.
    11-26-13 04:02 PM
  13. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    I've already addressed this. Notice it doesn't say "MAKE the best devices". Notice it doesn't mention BB10.

    It would be very, very simple for Chen to simply say "Yes, we are absolutely going to continue manufacturing smartphones." Yet, despite several interviews and press releases, he has NOT said that. Why not? If it were true, why wouldn't he say the words?
    Because it is plainly obvious from what he has said. Is the above where he is quoted as saying they will continue to deliver the best devices not proof enough? If they are not manufacturing handsets (new handsets/better handsets), how are they going to deliver the best devices? We already know RIM's HW business is worthless so someone else is not going to be making devices for them. At the end of the day he said they will be "delivering devices". These have to come from somewhere. And no, I do not agree with you that he is referring solely to existing inventory. What a way to use weasel words and burn your credibility. I sincerely hope Chen is not one of these people.
    11-26-13 04:22 PM
  14. howarmat's Avatar
    Since when did BB get in debt? They would have been if they went private (which didn't happen). In fact, they are adding to their cash stockpile through the investment and the early tax break they are trying to get. I don't think the recent investment deal can be considered debt, but I could be wrong.
    They now have a 1 billion $ loan with 6% interest rate....
    chr1sny, JeepBB and kevinnugent like this.
    11-26-13 05:06 PM
  15. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    They now have a 1 billion $ loan with 6% interest rate....
    IN debt is different than HAVE debt. If your net balance sheet is positive, you are not IN debt.
    11-26-13 05:14 PM
  16. howarmat's Avatar
    IN debt is different than HAVE debt. If your net balance sheet is positive, you are not IN debt.
    valid point.
    11-26-13 05:19 PM
  17. khoanguyen2010's Avatar
    I don't expect Blackberry 10 OS to die anytime soon so even if Blackberry stops making handsets then there will be other companies taking that job of producing the appropriate handsets for the awesome Blackberry 10 OS.
    11-26-13 06:18 PM
  18. universalbit's Avatar
    iOS contains no Android code, nor does Windows Phone, so there is no prohibition there. Samsung and HTC make WinPhones already.

    Google prohibited non-certified Android manufacturing as part of the OHA because they didn't want their partners taking Android, which they spent billions buying and developing, and using it to compete directly against Google. If you want to do that, then you have to go it alone, as Amazon has done.
    Yep, it is true. Not so many companies and only Quanta (at this moment) could manufacture Kindle for Amazon.
    "This makes life extremely difficult for the only company brazen enough to sell an Android fork in the west: Amazon. Since the Kindle OS counts as an incompatible version of Android, no major OEM is allowed to produce the Kindle Fire for Amazon. So when Amazon goes shopping for a manufacturer for its next tablet, it has to immediately cross Acer, Asus, Dell, Foxconn, Fujitsu, HTC, Huawei, Kyocera, Lenovo, LG, Motorola, NEC, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, Toshiba, and ZTE off the list. Currently, Amazon contracts Kindle manufacturing out to Quanta Computer, a company primarily known for making laptops. Amazon probably doesn't have many other choices."

    Google’s iron grip on Android: Controlling open source by any means necessary | Ars Technica

    And Thunderbuck is correct.
    "Trouble is, Google has not yet allowed BB10 as an authorized device, so this violates their ToS. Neither of these apps will ever be available in BlackBerry World because they're built to deliberately subvert Google's ToS."

    http://forums.crackberry.com/general...8/index13.html

    Regarding future devices, maybe BB could reinvent some much simpler devices with a very designated purpose such as m2m using QNX (embedded devices such as in cars) to connect (for example) dealers servers, map providers, etc. Thus, maybe BB is not in the smartphone business anymore but still making devices and reinvent itself in a more simpler and specific niche new areas. And Chen (maybe) is the right person to do this related to his past performance in transforming Sybase into new business and just like Lou Gertsner transforming IBM from mainframe company to solution / service company.
    11-26-13 07:56 PM
  19. pkcable's Avatar
    Too soon to call in my opinion.

    Chen not mentioning bb10 specifically means he's just like the rest of the world outside cb, he's never heard of it.
    I spit up my Cheerios a little when I read this!
    Lendo and RexdaleNap like this.
    11-26-13 08:20 PM
  20. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...erryos-877917/

    I don't generally start threads here, and I debated whether to start this one, especially given the topic, which I know isn't going to be received with open arms by many Crackberrians. Still, I think it needs to be said.

    BB eliminated the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Chief Operations Officer (COO) positions today. They didn't just fire the folks in those positions, they dissolved those positions. Think about that for a second: they no longer feel that Marketing and Operations divisions are important enough to be led by a C-suite-level position. How is that possible if they plan to continue to be in the hardware business? In my opinion, it isn't.

    Instead, I see this as yet another strong piece of evidence that BB does not plan to be in the hardware business going forward, and in fact has ALREADY exited the market. Let's look at the reasons why I believe that is true:

    • Massive losses in hardware, with nearly $2 billion in write-downs over the last couple of years, between the Playbook and the Z10.
    • Continued bleeding of marketshare, and particularly low sales of BB10 devices (BBOS has outsold BB10 each quarter, by a wide margin).
    • At the end of September, BB canceled its contract with the OEM manufacturer, Jabil Circuit, who actually made the BB handsets, leaving them without a manufacturing partner.
    • John Chen's repeated statements about focusing on software and services going forward, and refusing to outright deny that BB was exiting the hardware business (it makes sense not to do so while they still have existing inventory to sell).
    • And now, eliminating the CMO and COO positions entirely.


    In the face of all of that evidence, I don't see how anyone can believe that hardware is in BB's (near) future.

    I don't believe that BB is going to cease to exist, mind you. Rather, I see BB pretty quickly becoming a sub-1000-person software company (maybe closer to 500 employees, total), focusing on QNX, XBBM, and BES/MDM. It's also possible that one or more of these lines of business may be spun off into a separate company. Clearly, there is value in these areas and potential for profits, but BB's days as a company that makes billions in revenue and competes in the smartphone market are, IMO, clearly over, at least for the foreseeable future.

    Could they jump back in 5 years down the road? Who knows? Maybe HTML6 (7? 8?) will have made native apps truly obsolete, and the smartphone OS world will be broken wide open again, with lots of new competition. For the current cycle, though, BB took WAY too long to take multi-touch, web, media, and app-enabled smartphones seriously, and by the time they made a real effort to get back into the game, it was too little and WAY too late. 95+% of the blame for that rests with Mike and Jim, without a doubt. Thorsten was obviously not the right guy for the CEO job, but to be fair, his task was nearly impossible to begin with, due to the situation Mike and Jim left him with.

    I get that this is a BB fan site, and this post isn't going to be popular, but can anyone really say it's not realistic? Is there any real, substantial evidence that points in the other direction?
    Since reading BlackBerry dissolved those positions, I've been thinking similar things.

    Time will tell.

    Geeks United C00122408
    11-26-13 08:35 PM
  21. Pete The Penguin's Avatar
    "BB eliminated the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Chief Operations Officer (COO) positions today. They didn't just fire the folks in those positions, they dissolved those positions. "

    I didn't read the press release did Chen actually say that the positions were dissolved?
    Those positions are gone:

    http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?...3Mrel=nofollow

    Geeks United C00122408
    11-26-13 08:42 PM
  22. gogurt48's Avatar
    I don't expect Blackberry 10 OS to die anytime soon so even if Blackberry stops making handsets then there will be other companies taking that job of producing the appropriate handsets for the awesome Blackberry 10 OS.
    Didn't we hear the same thing a few years ago?

    "I don't expect WebOS to die anytime soon so even if Palm stops making handsets then there will be other companies taking that job of producing the appropriate handsets for the awesome WebOS."

    If BlackBerry quits making handsets, that'll be the end of BB10.
    bbq10l and Etios like this.
    11-26-13 08:43 PM
  23. Omnitech's Avatar
    And you really think Nokia will survive without the handset part?
    As a developer using maps I really started laughing as Nokia executives said they will focus on software (primary the maps). Because nobody needs a 3class maps solution...
    I don't think Nokia will long survive... maybe they buy some software...

    Dude - Microsoft just bought Nokia's mobile phones unit. They will survive. (Though how long they retain the "Nokia" brandname is an open question.)

    List of mergers and acquisitions by Microsoft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    11-26-13 08:45 PM
  24. Bluenoser63's Avatar
    Didn't we hear the same thing a few years ago?

    "I don't expect WebOS to die anytime soon so even if Palm stops making handsets then there will be other companies taking that job of producing the appropriate handsets for the awesome WebOS."

    If BlackBerry quits making handsets, that'll be the end of BB10.
    But they won't stop making handsets and Blackberry has a much larger exposure than WebOS. How many phones/devices were sold with WebOS and how many apps where there?
    11-26-13 08:50 PM
  25. yvpan1's Avatar
    BlackBerry is all about the handsets. the handset is unique and BBRY is well known for their handsets as well. what comes to my mind is, perhaps in the future BBRY will be licensing its BB10 to any other OEMs but they will keep making handsets just like androids & the nexus.. the BB10 handsets are the "nexus".. that's what i believe IMHO..
    11-26-13 09:07 PM
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