[stabstabdie]

I will say it again,
Your write down figures are off by over half a billion.
The manufacturer cancelled the contract, not blackberry.
While market share has indeed gone way down, it has remained fairly stable, although low. You seem to forget, they were first to the party, pretty much, they had nowhere to go but down. This was a business technology that became embraced by consumers. Changing focus while maintaining their original vision is a slow process. Ios and android on the other hand were designed for a consumer marketplace. You neglect the growth of BES over this same time period.

[BeautyEh]

The USA, "high-level military/security ops" units us devices much more secure (don't rely on outside networks) than BlackBerry's. And you must have missed the news the last few months.... most of the US military is already "testing" other platforms and some commands in the US Army seems to be going ahead with plans to use other Platforms (both devices and MDM)..... not sure what you want Troy to say.

There is no doubt that there is a market for BlackBerry... the question is how big is that market and how long can BlackBerry even hold that niche.

Thank you for the info, I was aware of some of that but not all. But I think my larger point in this regard is that some pretty important humans are using Blackberry's (i.e., it doesn't get much bigger than Obama). It seems like it would not exactly be "easy" for BB to just remove themselves from hardware. I feel strongly, as most of us here do, that BlackBerry has to continue making neat gadgets in one way or another, even if it's an Apple model of one-device-per-year that they then market the crap out of. If I was Chen, I would definitely want all options on the table - but certainly one of those options should be a sustainable model wherein they at least break even on hardware and are able to include it as a part of their overall portfolio.

Posted via CB10

[felixweber]

Dude - Microsoft just bought Nokia's mobile phones unit. They will survive. (Though how long they retain the "Nokia" brandname is an open question.)

List of mergers and acquisitions by Microsoft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not talking about the phone business but the rest left behind. Before you post Wikipedia links for **** make yourself familiar with the deal first please.

Posted via CB10

[Omnitech]

Not talking about the phone business but the rest left behind. Before you post Wikipedia links for **** make yourself familiar with the deal first please.

That's pretty hilarious considering the fact that we were never discussing anything but Nokia's handset / smartphone business ITT.

[DaSchwantz]

They will exit the CONSUMER hardware business. THAT is where the losses came from, THAT is where you most need those positions, and THAT is what the company itself has already indicated. It doesn't mean that bb10 devices will no longer be made.

Posted via CB10

[stabstabdie]

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...erryos-877917/

[*]John Chen's repeated statements about focusing on software and services going forward, and refusing to outright deny that BB was exiting the hardware business (it makes sense not to do so while they still have existing inventory to sell).

OK, so your 'evidence' about the amount of inventory written down was exaggerated (by about half a billion), the cancelling of contract with manufacturer was false (it was the manufacturer who cancelled, not bbry) and now Chen's silence is not longer silent.
Quote from Open Letter
"We're going back to our heritage and roots � delivering enterprise-grade, end-to-end mobile solutions. As we refocus back to our roots, BlackBerry will target four areas: handsets, EMM solutions, cross-platform messaging, and embedded systems. And, just as important, we will continue to invest in enterprise and security related R&D during our restructuring period."

I think we can put this opinion to rest now.
The only evidence that remains accurate is the one about losing marketshare in the consumer arena.

[peppeZ30]

We are preparing new devices for the next year... with hardware pretty on the level of the other competitors.
Cheers.

Posted via CB10

[MarsupilamiX]

OK, so your 'evidence' about the amount of inventory written down was exaggerated (by about half a billion), the cancelling of contract with manufacturer was false (it was the manufacturer who cancelled, not bbry) and now Chen's silence is not longer silent.

I am not agreeing or disagreeing with the OP, as everything is possible right now.

I am just wondering why you put so much emphasis on the wrongly added 0.5 billions of written down inventory?
BlackBerry lost 1 billion with the Z10 and a combined write-down of 752 million dollars when we look at the PlayBook and BBOS 7 devices.
http://www.slashgear.com/rim-to-writ...tory-29230710/

So actually, the poster is mostly correct when saying 2 billion, and he is closer to the truth than you are, at least on the numbers of the write-downs.

The other thing is, that when your manufacturing contractor cancels the contract you have with him, then you normally know that his opportunity costs are getting too high, and that he'll make more money not producing your hardware.
This is a reason to worry, not to rejoice.
That they don't want to produce for BlackBerry anymore, is even worse than BlackBerry not wanting them to produce anymore.

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Alright. Let's make it clear and loud.
http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...n-chen-880085/

We're going back to our heritage and roots delivering enterprise-grade, end-to-end mobile solutions. As we refocus back to our roots, BlackBerry will target four areas: handsets, EMM solutions, cross-platform messaging, and embedded systems. And, just as important, we will continue to invest in enterprise and security related R&D during our restructuring period.

Now, where's the evidence ?
Strategy tea leaves chewing (no personal pun intended) or very first of the four areas listed above ?
I'm so glad it's now on the paper.
Keep moving.

[parthokarki]

Would someone kindly close this thread as it stands without any point against today's open letter from Mr. Chen.

Posted via CB10

[parthokarki]

Alright. Let's make it clear and loud.
http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...n-chen-880085/



Now, where's the evidence ?
Strategy tea leaves chewing (no personal pun intended) or very first of the four areas listed above ?
I'm so glad it's now on the paper.
Keep moving.

The very first one, maybe chen heard this discussion.

Posted via CB10

[ElGusta]

Would someone kindly close this thread as it stands without any point against today's open letter from Mr. Chen.

Posted via CB10

No it doesn't. A 'focus' on handsets. Does not necessarily mean BB will design and produce handsets. Handsets could also refer to managing other OS'.

Notice how Chen did not once reference new hansets being released or invested in. This is very key as we are quickly approaching the one year mark of BB10 release.

Wouldn't it have been very easy and logical for Chen to bring up the NEW handsets they are working on? And their imminent release?

Further to the point, we have not seen a SINGLE bb leak of new products. Not a roadmap, not an LCD panel, not a battery door, not a new patent. Nothing.

Once again, Chen choose his words very carefully.

Those of you who have no business experience are extrapolating these comments to very illogical conclusions.

It is not necessarily what you say, but what you dont say in an open letter that speaks volumes.

[Superfly_FR]

No it doesn't. A 'focus' on handsets. Does not necessarily mean BB will design and produce handsets. Handsets could also refer to managing other OS'.

Notice how Chen did not once reference new hansets being released or invested in. This is very key as we are quickly approaching the one year mark of BB10 release.

Wouldn't it have been very easy and logical for Chen to bring up the NEW handsets they are working on? And their imminent release?

Further to the point, we have not seen a SINGLE bb leak of new products. Not a roadmap, not an LCD panel, not a battery door, not a new patent. Nothing.

Once again, Chen choose his words very carefully.

Those of you who have no business experience are extrapolating these comments to very illogical conclusions.

It is not necessarily what you say, but what you dont say in an open letter that speaks volumes.

It's a conjonction of things. The integrated nature of BlackBerry architecture is what makes its strength and unmatched security for the enterprises that requires that level.

Then it's about supply chain; you cannot improvise a new production process. BlackBerry revamped the whole under Heins; it's a two years process.

Should they change who/where/how they build their device, I believe most certifications will have to be submitted again.

With this in mind, read the letter again and the strength points : security, certification...

Maybe BlackBerry will cease building it's device. But I bet it won't be under Chen's reign.

Visit my BBM Channel !

[Omnitech]

Notice how Chen did not once reference new hansets being released or invested in. This is very key as we are quickly approaching the one year mark of BB10 release.

I have no idea why that date is somehow magic. For one, they JUST released a new device, the Z30. Secondly, the one year mark is two months away still.

Wouldn't it have been very easy and logical for Chen to bring up the NEW handsets they are working on? And their imminent release?

Further to the point, we have not seen a SINGLE bb leak of new products. Not a roadmap, not an LCD panel, not a battery door, not a new patent. Nothing.

Once again, Chen choose his words very carefully.

Actually I'm surprised he says much at all now because A) it's too early for the management to have settled into a concrete and detailed plan yet and Chen needs time to get up to speed on everything that is going on, and B) since BlackBerry's earnings release is coming up soon technically this is probably in a "quiet period".

[Whyareallthegoodnamestaken]

No it doesn't. A 'focus' on handsets. Does not necessarily mean BB will design and produce handsets. Handsets could also refer to managing other OS'.

Notice how Chen did not once reference new hansets being released or invested in. This is very key as we are quickly approaching the one year mark of BB10 release.

Wouldn't it have been very easy and logical for Chen to bring up the NEW handsets they are working on? And their imminent release?

Further to the point, we have not seen a SINGLE bb leak of new products. Not a roadmap, not an LCD panel, not a battery door, not a new patent. Nothing.

Once again, Chen choose his words very carefully.

Those of you who have no business experience are extrapolating these comments to very illogical conclusions.

It is not necessarily what you say, but what you dont say in an open letter that speaks volumes.

He also didn't say anything about ceasing handset production either. With what has been said and not said, there are at least 'hints' that handset production will continue whereas there is not even that for the contrary.

Posted via CB10

[anon(1152406)]

They can still make new devices available through limited channels (i.e not to consumers through carriers). You wouldn't need them, in that case. Actually didn't they pretty much already say that?

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

No it doesn't. A 'focus' on handsets. Does not necessarily mean BB will design and produce handsets. Handsets could also refer to managing other OS'.

Notice how Chen did not once reference new hansets being released or invested in.

I could have written this post, because it says everything I would have said.

I've already said in this thread that I don't expect BB to admit for about another year that they will no longer manufacture handsets. They have too much unsold inventory that they're going to try to sell to enterprises, who are (they hope) less sensitive to specs, and if they announced the end of hardware, they would lose those sales. Plus, they need time to transition to software-only, so they have to maintain the illusion (aka "spin") that handsets will be part of the future, without actually SAYING that they will, because if they say so when they don't intend to be, they can be sued or sanctioned by the government.

This is the third major CEO communication in which BB's flagship product, BB10, has NOT been mentioned by name. There's a reason for that: they can't publicly commit to BB10 if they are working to eventually pull the plug on it, so these carefully worded and lawyer-reviewed communications are designed to make you "believe" without actually saying anything concrete. Of course, if BB intended to continue making BB10 phones, none of that would be necessary - they'd be talking up BB10 just like Thor used to.

Just as you said, it's as much about what they don't say as what they do say that matters.

[Troy Tiscareno]

He also didn't say anything about ceasing handset production either. With what has been said and not said, there are at least 'hints' that handset production will continue whereas there is not even that for the contrary.

Handset production ceased already - in September, when their OEM manufacturer canceled BB's contract following the completion of the Z30 run, because BB had nothing on the production schedule. That's right out of Jabil Circuit's press release.

So, if future handsets are to be designed and manufactured, BB will have a LOT of work to get production back up and running, and we'd hear about that going on. So far, nothing. No official device leaks, roadmaps, and certainly no specific word on the future of BB10 handsets from BB.

[stabstabdie]

This is the third major CEO communication in which BB's flagship product, BB10, has NOT been mentioned by name.

Well the letter OS written to enterprise customers. Most of whom have adopted BYOD policies. The letter was about enterprise products. To enterprise customers.

[Kimberella]

I could have written this post, because it says everything I would have said.

I've already said in this thread that I don't expect BB to admit for about another year that they will no longer manufacture handsets. They have too much unsold inventory that they're going to try to sell to enterprises, who are (they hope) less sensitive to specs, and if they announced the end of hardware, they would lose those sales. Plus, they need time to transition to software-only, so they have to maintain the illusion (aka "spin") that handsets will be part of the future, without actually SAYING that they will, because if they say so when they don't intend to be, they can be sued or sanctioned by the government.

This is the third major CEO communication in which BB's flagship product, BB10, has NOT been mentioned by name. There's a reason for that: they can't publicly commit to BB10 if they are working to eventually pull the plug on it, so these carefully worded and lawyer-reviewed communications are designed to make you "believe" without actually saying anything concrete. Of course, if BB intended to continue making BB10 phones, none of that would be necessary - they'd be talking up BB10 just like Thor used to.

Just as you said, it's as much about what they don't say as what they do say that matters.

A whole heck-of-a-lot was promised/publicly committed /said about the PlayBook yet little materialized. They certainly have and did SAY what ever suited their agenda at the moment. The PB debacle shows parsing what they have or have not said to the public is of no use when trying to determine what BlackBerry really plans to DO.
Mr. Chen seems to be a straight shooter so I'm inclined to believe him (although with an inherited <side eye> because of the PB) when he says
"BlackBerry will target four areas:
HANDSETS
EMM Solutions
Cross-platform messaging
and
Embedded systems"
Aren't you?

Posted via CB10

[web99]

Handset production ceased already - in September, when their OEM manufacturer canceled BB's contract following the completion of the Z30 run, because BB had nothing on the production schedule. That's right out of Jabil Circuit's press release.

So, if future handsets are to be designed and manufactured, BB will have a LOT of work to get production back up and running, and we'd hear about that going on. So far, nothing. No official device leaks, roadmaps, and certainly no specific word on the future of BB10 handsets from BB.

You have raised some good points, but here is where I disagree. My feeling is that BlackBerry will continue to make handsets, but with a focus on security and business productivity. So it will mean them reducing their production levels to satisfy a niche market instead of trying to go head to head with the companies dominating the consumer market.

As communicated by their CEO Chen, I do see them focusing on BES and other MDM solutions and less on hardware, but I don't see them completely abandoning the hardware market in at least the short term.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note Tablet

[ccbs]

You have raised some good points, but here is where I disagree. My feeling is that BlackBerry will continue to make handsets, but with a focus on security and business productivity. So it will mean them reducing their production levels to satisfy a niche market instead of trying to go head to head with the companies dominating the consumer market.

As communicated by their CEO Chen, I do see them focusing on BES and other MDM solutions and less on hardware, but I don't see them completely abandoning the hardware market in at least the short term.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note Tablet

The problem with a small scale handset production is that they will need to shoulder a lot more added cost due to no economy of scale. Thus, the handset will only be made available in limited channels to willing enterprise buyer. In order to recoup development cost, high margin will be needed per handset and they may only be sold to enterprise buyers since they are usually looking at cost from a full integration point of view instead of per handset. In other words, BBRY is not gonna be affordable and will not be an option on the open market anymore.

[Superfly_FR]

The problem with a small scale handset production is that they will need to shoulder a lot more added cost due to no economy of scale. Thus, the handset will only be made available in limited channels to willing enterprise buyer. In order to recoup development cost, high margin will be needed per handset and they may only be sold to enterprise buyers since they are usually looking at cost from a full integration point of view instead of per handset. In other words, BBRY is not gonna be affordable and will not be an option on the open market anymore.

But the mix is very different from what you describes. What you fairly describe is the customer market approach.
In enterprise environment, ROI is king. Look at all these companies with massive floats of curves and bold. How long have them been here ?
2,3 maybe 4 years ? Who can challenge BB on this particular front ? I don't want to target one specific device, but at least we can say BB has one of the highest durable devices.
So the "price", as-is, has no real value.

Short term, enterprise devices will probably be bundled with CALs (at least for the Z10/Q10/Q5) within the next months, somehow converting the last write down into sales incentive and mid-term revenues. When BIS disappeared, most here - me included - worried about the revenues plunge and expected the hardware margins to balance. They didn't (it did, a bit, for the first quarter).
Remember Polaroid ? We're on a similar model here : the device is almost free, while services are both the value and the cow. Because only BB can do this, right now, and the only space it can be done is Enterprise.

The title of this thread should be, IM*very*HO
"Evidence BlackBerry won't make much money with hardware in the future".

[Troy Tiscareno]

The problem with a small scale handset production is that they will need to shoulder a lot more added cost due to no economy of scale. Thus, the handset will only be made available in limited channels to willing enterprise buyer. In order to recoup development cost, high margin will be needed per handset and they may only be sold to enterprise buyers since they are usually looking at cost from a full integration point of view instead of per handset. In other words, BBRY is not gonna be affordable and will not be an option on the open market anymore.

Exactly. Assuming they did keep making handsets, they would be small runs, where the tooling, design, and component costs would force the handset prices much higher - probably in the realm of $1,000 or more each. That *might* be acceptable to certain high-risk customers, at least in the short run, but that also comes with a host of problems:

1. It completely prices consumers out of the market. Who is going to upgrade to the newest BB at $1,000+ per phone? Especially if you have to buy outright, as these won't be sold through carriers.
2. It eliminates most app development, except for custom corporate apps, because what developer is going to develop apps for such a tiny niche?
3. Perhaps the biggest one: it makes BB an even more vulnerable target to other MDM providers, in particular Samsung with Knox (potentially just as end-to-end as BB is, and just as tightly integrated), who could offer lower prices and more attractive handset options, and erode BB's niche.

For mobile devices, the Enterprise market itself has been and continues to be eroded by consumer needs and BYOD, with only a relatively small number of large, risk-averse companies and governments whose need for higher levels of security outweighs the advantages of BYOD and/or the user demand for consumer devices and services (apps, media, etc.). While I don't see Apple making a first-party play into the Enterprise by offering their own MDM, they will continue to add management features into the OS for third parties. More dangerous for BB is that Samsung is making a serious push for BB's key customers with Knox, and is winning a lot of the time, and can only be expected to improve. Given Samsung has the same basic advantage that BB has, with end-to-end control, there's no reason to believe that they won't be successful, and if (when?) that happens, BB's niche will be gone.

[Superfly_FR]

Exactly. Assuming they did keep making handsets, they would be small runs, where the tooling, design, and component costs would force the handset prices much higher - probably in the realm of $1,000 or more each.

Can you elaborate on how you calculate this $1,000 price ?
Is this consumer price, ASP or ... ?

hint: Jolla can afford to sell their "built from scratch" device to a (very) limited audience for $399 ... and I don't believe they can afford to sell it at loss ...