[Troy Tiscareno]

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...erryos-877917/

I don't generally start threads here, and I debated whether to start this one, especially given the topic, which I know isn't going to be received with open arms by many Crackberrians. Still, I think it needs to be said.

BB eliminated the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Chief Operations Officer (COO) positions today. They didn't just fire the folks in those positions, they dissolved those positions. Think about that for a second: they no longer feel that Marketing and Operations divisions are important enough to be led by a C-suite-level position. How is that possible if they plan to continue to be in the hardware business? In my opinion, it isn't.

Instead, I see this as yet another strong piece of evidence that BB does not plan to be in the hardware business going forward, and in fact has ALREADY exited the market. Let's look at the reasons why I believe that is true:

• Massive losses in hardware, with nearly $2 billion in write-downs over the last couple of years, between the Playbook and the Z10.
• Continued bleeding of marketshare, and particularly low sales of BB10 devices (BBOS has outsold BB10 each quarter, by a wide margin).
• At the end of September, BB canceled its contract with the OEM manufacturer, Jabil Circuit, who actually made the BB handsets, leaving them without a manufacturing partner.
• John Chen's repeated statements about focusing on software and services going forward, and refusing to outright deny that BB was exiting the hardware business (it makes sense not to do so while they still have existing inventory to sell).
• And now, eliminating the CMO and COO positions entirely.

In the face of all of that evidence, I don't see how anyone can believe that hardware is in BB's (near) future.

I don't believe that BB is going to cease to exist, mind you. Rather, I see BB pretty quickly becoming a sub-1000-person software company (maybe closer to 500 employees, total), focusing on QNX, XBBM, and BES/MDM. It's also possible that one or more of these lines of business may be spun off into a separate company. Clearly, there is value in these areas and potential for profits, but BB's days as a company that makes billions in revenue and competes in the smartphone market are, IMO, clearly over, at least for the foreseeable future.

Could they jump back in 5 years down the road? Who knows? Maybe HTML6 (7? 8?) will have made native apps truly obsolete, and the smartphone OS world will be broken wide open again, with lots of new competition. For the current cycle, though, BB took WAY too long to take multi-touch, web, media, and app-enabled smartphones seriously, and by the time they made a real effort to get back into the game, it was too little and WAY too late. 95+% of the blame for that rests with Mike and Jim, without a doubt. Thorsten was obviously not the right guy for the CEO job, but to be fair, his task was nearly impossible to begin with, due to the situation Mike and Jim left him with.

I get that this is a BB fan site, and this post isn't going to be popular, but can anyone really say it's not realistic? Is there any real, substantial evidence that points in the other direction?

[minimac1]

They will still be pumping out hardware, that's not changing anytime soon. He's a software guy, Thor was a Hardware guy - it's not like he dumped BB10 and went android just because it's not his cup of tea.

Loon at it historically, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that BlackBerry's in-house methods have been less that stellar over the years, far into pre-BB10. Shakeups haven't worked, why should we embrace another? Get rid of the damn thing! Dissolving isint the end all - outsourcing is a better way to look it at. BBRY has one less internal arm to worry about, the work will be theoretically more effective and should save them a few dollars aswell since you only pay when you need them whereas in-house carries constant overhead.

He's focusing on developemt because there's no point marketing uncompetitive products. This turn arround is going to take time and marketing will be futile for the foreseeable future.

The COO removal also signifies he'll obviously have more personal relationship with everyone downstairs. Shorten the corporate ladder, easier on the knees. Smaller the gab between the suits and the glasses, the more effective and productive the company can be. Far less bureaucracy.

Not all sunshine and bunnies, but it's not Y2K either

Posted via CB10

[rotorwrench]

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...evices-877708/

[Troy Tiscareno]

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...evices-877708/

Except that he absolutely didn't confirm anything of the sort.

He spoke of "delivering devices". They're sitting on a warehouse full of unsold BB10 devices, and probably some BBOS devices as well, and at this rate, they might still have plenty for sale 2 years from now. Nowhere did he say a single word about making or manufacturing devices. Nor has he said BB10 by name; he's been absolutely mum on that subject, if you'll notice.

Chen has been asked point blank if he planned to discontinue manufacturing hardware, and he said "I'm not sure that it makes sense" but that's a non-answer. I absolutely expect a non-answer, because BB needs to maintain the illusion that they are still in the hardware business as long as they have a bunch of inventory that needs to be sold. If they formally announced they were out of the hardware business, it would mean the existing inventory would have to be sold off in a fire sale. Chen wants to wring as many dollars as possible out of the current stock of phones before that happens.

I notice that no one is refuting my points with any real evidence (I don't believe that can be done, but maybe there's evidence I haven't seen). From a manufacturing standpoint, BB has BEEN out of the hardware manufacturing game since the end of September, when the last Z30 was assembled and the Jabil Circuit contract was canceled.

How many billion dollar manufacturers don't have a CMO or COO? Good luck finding one. Those positions are hugely important if you are in that business. Not having those positions is clear evidence that BB doesn't see itself in that business in the near future.

[playbookster]

Except that he absolutely didn't confirm anything of the sort.

He spoke of "delivering devices". They're sitting on a warehouse full of unsold BB10 devices, and probably some BBOS devices as well, and at this rate, they might still have plenty for sale 2 years from now. Nowhere did he say a single word about making or manufacturing devices. Nor has he said BB10 by name; he's been absolutely mum on that subject, if you'll notice.

Chen has been asked point blank if he planned to discontinue manufacturing hardware, and he said "I'm not sure that it makes sense" but that's a non-answer. I absolutely expect a non-answer, because BB needs to maintain the illusion that they are still in the hardware business as long as they have a bunch of inventory that needs to be sold. If they formally announced they were out of the hardware business, it would mean the existing inventory would have to be sold off in a fire sale. Chen wants to wring as many dollars as possible out of the current stock of phones before that happens.

I notice that no one is refuting my points with any real evidence (I don't believe that can be done, but maybe there's evidence I haven't seen). From a manufacturing standpoint, BB has BEEN out of the hardware manufacturing game since the end of September, when the last Z30 was assembled and the Jabil Circuit contract was canceled.

How many billion dollar manufacturers don't have a CMO or COO? Good luck finding one. Those positions are hugely important if you are in that business. Not having those positions is clear evidence that BB doesn't see itself in that business in the near future.

And your thread didn't confirm anything. It's not evidence of any kind.

Sent from my Z30

[eddy_berry]

Doesn't really prove anything to me. Although at this point I wouldn't be surprised whichever direction is taken. Marketing could be outsourced to marketing companies. It puts a bit more work on Chen's plate since he and his remaining staff may have to make marketing decisions but the actual marketing will be done by other companies. Marketing is still needed, in a sense, even if they exited the handset business. Operations is another thing that can be done via business partnerships. One thing we can say for certain is that this is becoming a very lean BlackBerry and their ability to execute now on their plan is going to be a defining factor for the company.

[Troy Tiscareno]

And your thread didn't confirm anything. It's not evidence of any kind.

The original post was MY OPINION, which is why it is stated in the title. But that post contains a number of pieces of evidence. They are listed in bullet points.

I haven't seen any evidence to refute them, which is why I formed the opinion that I did. I'm open to investigating evidence to the contrary.

[h20work]

The original post was MY OPINION, which is why it is stated in the title. But that post contains a number of pieces of evidence. They are listed in bullet points.

I haven't seen any evidence to refute them, which is why I formed the opinion that I did. I'm open to investigating evidence to the contrary.

Too soon to call in my opinion.

Chen not mentioning bb10 specifically means he's just like the rest of the world outside cb, he's never heard of it.

[ray689]

Except that he absolutely didn't confirm anything of the sort.

He spoke of "delivering devices". They're sitting on a warehouse full of unsold BB10 devices, and probably some BBOS devices as well, and at this rate, they might still have plenty for sale 2 years from now. Nowhere did he say a single word about making or manufacturing devices. Nor has he said BB10 by name; he's been absolutely mum on that subject, if you'll notice.

Chen has been asked point blank if he planned to discontinue manufacturing hardware, and he said "I'm not sure that it makes sense" but that's a non-answer. I absolutely expect a non-answer, because BB needs to maintain the illusion that they are still in the hardware business as long as they have a bunch of inventory that needs to be sold. If they formally announced they were out of the hardware business, it would mean the existing inventory would have to be sold off in a fire sale. Chen wants to wring as many dollars as possible out of the current stock of phones before that happens.

I notice that no one is refuting my points with any real evidence (I don't believe that can be done, but maybe there's evidence I haven't seen). From a manufacturing standpoint, BB has BEEN out of the hardware manufacturing game since the end of September, when the last Z30 was assembled and the Jabil Circuit contract was canceled.

How many billion dollar manufacturers don't have a CMO or COO? Good luck finding one. Those positions are hugely important if you are in that business. Not having those positions is clear evidence that BB doesn't see itself in that business in the near future.

Not saying you are right or wrong but do you really think when he said "delivery quality devices", he actually meant like on a delivery truck from remaining stock....come on man get real.

Posted via CB10

[MartyMcfly]

Blackberry's hardware division is eating up the company's cash. It makes sense (financially) to stop producing new hardware (for the time being).


Sent From My New IPad using Tapatalk

[missing_K-W]

The day blackberry states they will drop hardware is the only day I will have any such motion to believe such claims.

Blackberry is an integrated solution. This includes devices.

Posted via CB10

[geoffsdad]

It is all speculation at this point. I would prefer BlackBerry produce their own hardware for BB10. In the long run, I guess I don't care who makes the phone as long as it runs BB10 flawlessly.

Posted via my Z10 (BB#22) featuring Channel C0031BD24

[BlackBerry Guy]

Quite possible. You present some very well thought out analysis and opinion. I suppose time will tell. I've always liked BlackBerry's hardware design, they have great ergonomics and fit very well in hand and in use. However, if the worst happens, I'd prefer they shutter hardware, and give their software and services a chance to survive.

[BB10user07]

http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...erryos-877917/

I don't generally start threads here, and I debated whether to start this one, especially given the topic, which I know isn't going to be received with open arms by many Crackberrians. Still, I think it needs to be said.

BB eliminated the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Chief Operations Officer (COO) positions today. They didn't just fire the folks in those positions, they dissolved those positions. Think about that for a second: they no longer feel that Marketing and Operations divisions are important enough to be led by a C-suite-level position. How is that possible if they plan to continue to be in the hardware business? In my opinion, it isn't.

Instead, I see this as yet another strong piece of evidence that BB does not plan to be in the hardware business going forward, and in fact has ALREADY exited the market. Let's look at the reasons why I believe that is true:

• Massive losses in hardware, with nearly $2 billion in write-downs over the last couple of years, between the Playbook and the Z10.
• Continued bleeding of marketshare, and particularly low sales of BB10 devices (BBOS has outsold BB10 each quarter, by a wide margin).
• At the end of September, BB canceled its contract with the OEM manufacturer, Jabil Circuit, who actually made the BB handsets, leaving them without a manufacturing partner.
• John Chen's repeated statements about focusing on software and services going forward, and refusing to outright deny that BB was exiting the hardware business (it makes sense not to do so while they still have existing inventory to sell).
• And now, eliminating the CMO and COO positions entirely.

In the face of all of that evidence, I don't see how anyone can believe that hardware is in BB's (near) future.

I don't believe that BB is going to cease to exist, mind you. Rather, I see BB pretty quickly becoming a sub-1000-person software company (maybe closer to 500 employees, total), focusing on QNX, XBBM, and BES/MDM. It's also possible that one or more of these lines of business may be spun off into a separate company. Clearly, there is value in these areas and potential for profits, but BB's days as a company that makes billions in revenue and competes in the smartphone market are, IMO, clearly over, at least for the foreseeable future.

Could they jump back in 5 years down the road? Who knows? Maybe HTML6 (7? 8?) will have made native apps truly obsolete, and the smartphone OS world will be broken wide open again, with lots of new competition. For the current cycle, though, BB took WAY too long to take multi-touch, web, media, and app-enabled smartphones seriously, and by the time they made a real effort to get back into the game, it was too little and WAY too late. 95+% of the blame for that rests with Mike and Jim, without a doubt. Thorsten was obviously not the right guy for the CEO job, but to be fair, his task was nearly impossible to begin with, due to the situation Mike and Jim left him with.

I get that this is a BB fan site, and this post isn't going to be popular, but can anyone really say it's not realistic? Is there any real, substantial evidence that points in the other direction?

Doesn't make any sense than trying to put a negative spin on it...Don't you need operations guy for BES10, QNX or BBM or a CMO...all of them require those positions...
So stop putting these negatives spins Troy,m1 and sinsin

Posted via CB10

[MichaelAndersonZ10]

I don't know, Chen said he will continue making hardware so I believe him

Posted via CB10

[propeller10]

"BB eliminated the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) and Chief Operations Officer (COO) positions today. They didn't just fire the folks in those positions, they dissolved those positions. "

I didn't read the press release did Chen actually say that the positions were dissolved?

[togarika]

Too soon to call in my opinion.

Chen not mentioning bb10 specifically means he's just like the rest of the world outside cb, he's never heard of it.

As I see it, Chen is looking at the bigger picture, that is QNX. BB10 is a QNX project.

[anjumaziz]

To all the thousands thoughtful rationale I strongly believe that BlackBerry will be the only player along side with apple to sell the solutions of communication and mobility on their dna strength which can be only delivered with hardware nd the software as a packaged attempt...
So to my mind there is no doubt whatsoever to figure out how a innovative and competitive niche company could survive not doing why they are good at and build in their strengths rather be in to race of getting closer to androids and kill urselves....


Aziz

Aziz ..... Z30

[crackbrry fan]

BlackBerry will be producing handsets, they have to, even if they remove themselves in terms of mass consumption vs "prosumer" niche market as they will need devices to provide a secure " end to end "package for BES10 which I believe now , to be their priority .

Posted via CB10

[12Danny123]

To all the thousands thoughtful rationale I strongly believe that BlackBerry will be the only player along side with apple to sell the solutions of communication and mobility on their dna strength which can be only delivered with hardware nd the software as a packaged attempt...
So to my mind there is no doubt whatsoever to figure out how a innovative and competitive niche company could survive not doing why they are good at and build in their strengths rather be in to race of getting closer to androids and kill urselves....


Aziz

Aziz ..... Z30

Wouldn't you consider Microsoft one of them as well. Since they are a hardware company as well. But much more diverse than Apple and BB in a way

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingdmen]

Valid argument. Seems like it's what Chen is doing.

Posted via CB10

[alternator77]

As long as they are trying to sign up new companies to bes 10 they will need hardware to offer them since it is designed to run bb10.
They need hardware to show companies what bes 10 can do. And for that reason they will continue to make handsets. Whether large or small scale we dont know.

As far as cancelling contracts with hardware makers remember one thing they bought a company back in may and not a soul knew about it until they wanted it known. Whos to say they don't have agreements elsewhere??

Fact is despite the claims of "insider" sources the man at the helm is calling the shots and until he speaks everything is speculation.
Furthermore it was stated that on the December 20th earnings call they speak further on the cmo/ coo issue.

Posted from a phone....

[chopachain]

Assumption is the mother of all F....... ups.
The Dude from BB South Africa (don't have the link) said something about Playbook. Never say never. I think he knows more than the negative assumptions of some posters.

[Crackberrykills]

No more BlackBerry handsets!? I seem to have read that before. Perhaps around the time BlackBerry 10 was being called vaporware. How did that work out? Who knows what will happen in the future? But, right now we all have the same limited information, so how can one make an astute observation about anything BlackBerry? But hey, what do I know?

[Troy Tiscareno]

As long as they are trying to sign up new companies to bes 10 they will need hardware to offer them since it is designed to run bb10.
They need hardware to show companies what bes 10 can do. And for that reason they will continue to make handsets. Whether large or small scale we dont know.

I believe that BB is scrambling to improve BES10's ability to work with iOS and Android, and hoping to compete in the BYOD world. Chen has said as much, in fact ("fully embracing BYOD"). Which is another reason I think that the hardware business is in BB's past, other than selling existing stocks.

You have to look at all the evidence and read between the lines. Look at what the press releases actually say and don't say, without "interpretation." Remember that those announcements go through the Legal department, and are very carefully worded. Press releases are routinely worded to SUGGEST things that absolutely aren't true, but that it's in the company's best interest for people to believe are true; in this case, that BB will continue to be in the smartphone handset business. But if you read carefully, you'll see that there's really nothing there that would assure anyone that they'll really stay with hardware.

And as for comparing to the situation a year ago, prior to the BB10 launch, there's really no comparison. BB's situation, with 3 abysmal quarters and BB10s failure in the marketplace, another $1B write-down, plus the failed sale of the company and being in debt for the first time in forever, is far, FAR worse than it was then. A year ago, there was real hope that BB10 was going to be a market success and make BB competitive again. That didn't happen; BB10 has not been a success in the marketplace, and the erosion in carrier support, installed base, and service revenue (XBBM is killing the BIS business very quickly as people switch from BBOS devices to Android with BBM) has forced BB to make some hard choices. I believe, looking at the data, that shedding the hardware business is the only viable choice. That doesn't mean it's a choice that anyone LIKES, but it's simply not sustainable for BB to remain in the handset business at this time.