[bengalt9]

Came across this article and thought it would be nice to share with the crackberry community:-

The Smartphone Shakeout: Time Is Running Out for a Viable No. 3 - Knowledge@Wharton

[Speedygi]

Sure, the regular doom story of Rim's spiral downwards. Pretty...

But lots of interesting things in there about the overall state of smartphones...good read..

[GTiLeo]

I think the reason smartphone growth has slows is simply because no one has changed much about their products. Apple is still using the same iOS look with some coding enhancements same with Android. Windows is waiting for windows phone 8while Berrys are waiting for BB10.
With apple since most users see the 4 and 4s as the same except siri the switch to the iphone 4s hasn't been as great dispite the hardware advancements. The galaxy s3 is more or less the same thing as the s2 LTE, not to say it's a bad piece but it's more of a dodge viper full of power but doesn't have the luster of a ferrari.

Hopefully with bb10 rim can make an impact and get things flowing again, for their sack and for us blackberry fans

[BoldPreza]

There will be a solid shot for a number 3 so long as it can differentiate itself and provide something the competition cannot.

That differentiation could be something like full integration from Phone, to tablet, to tv, to pc, to car. I would love if in my car I could get in and have full control of my phone from my steering wheel. Something like Bridge.

[cgk]

I am not convinced that there can be a serious third player in mobile as the market currently stands, there are structural problems that prohibits it - as the market currently stands, Samsung and Apple have operating economics of scale that allow for margins that are unmatchable by any of the other current players and it is those margins that lead to operating profits (those two companies account for all or virtually all of the profits in the sector) and the critical ability to outspend the competition in terms of marketing, salesforce and carrier incentives (Microsoft could maybe do the same but that would require a level of commitment beyond what we have seen).

It is weird to think that Nokia and RIM are too small to compete effectively as it currently stands - so we need a new player but who could that be? ZTE? Could be but I honest haven't looked at them closely so don't know much about their fundamentals.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[Cesare21]

As I understand it, this is the beginning of a shakeup/transition in the smartphone business. Globally, there is room for 3 big players (read smart, ihype, efficient) with a few local players. A duopoly is bad for the market, and sooner we realize it, the better it is for us. Imagine this, if the same interlinked OS is on your smartphone, work PC, home PC and tablet or laptop, it does mean a security scare (remember the recent hacking incident at apple which compromised the user id?), although it has it's own benefits. I would rather have 2-3 OS floating on my devices and which talk efficiently with each other any day.

who wants to live a boring life in a duopoly?

[cgk]

Right - a duopoly is very bad for us as consumers but within the current cycle it is hard to see where the competition is going to come from.

[Cesare21]

Right - a duopoly is very bad for us as consumers but within the current cycle it is hard to see where the competition is going to come from.

I agree, who would have thought Samsung will become the #1 IT producer beating HP? Google can always pull the rug out of Android, or the isheep may suddenly grow brains to revolt and go away from idevices.

Anything's possible, but the top 3 will have the most innovation, most cash, and most cool quotient (in any order you like) atleast for the next couple of years till there's smarphone fatigue and devices are rediscovered.

[ccbs]

It seems to me that only the three computing giants have a chance with their influence, war chest and other leverage in the traditional computing world. Apple and Google might be dominating now, but Microsoft certainly has enough money and influence to put up a fight. RIM doesn't stand a chance since they have no other income to sustain their mobile platform until it catches on. Their only chance is to be acquired and let the Blackberry brand lives on.

[kraski]

As I understand it, this is the beginning of a shakeup/transition in the smartphone business. Globally, there is room for 3 big players (read smart, ihype, efficient) with a few local players. A duopoly is bad for the market, and sooner we realize it, the better it is for us. Imagine this, if the same interlinked OS is on your smartphone, work PC, home PC and tablet or laptop, it does mean a security scare (remember the recent hacking incident at apple which compromised the user id?), although it has it's own benefits. I would rather have 2-3 OS floating on my devices and which talk efficiently with each other any day.

who wants to live a boring life in a duopoly?

I agree there's room for 3. But you can't claim the Apple boondoggle was hacking or that it shows the problems with a duopoly. The Apple incident was social engineering, plain and simple. Person to person, or to , depending on how you'd like to express it. But, if you leave the right information in the right places, you could have six different operating systems on your devices and still be in trouble.

[kraski]

It seems to me that only the three computing giants have a chance with their influence, war chest and other leverage in the traditional computing world. Apple and Google might be dominating now, but Microsoft certainly has enough money and influence to put up a fight. RIM doesn't stand a chance since they have no other income to sustain their mobile platform until it catches on. Their only chance is to be acquired and let the Blackberry brand lives on.

I'd agree with you, except I don't see MS making the right steps. If anything, the leaks of what they're doing with Win8 are getting worse press than RIM is. If they don't come out with a really compelling problem, it won't matter what amount of money they throw at it.

Look at WP7. MS bought Nokia. As popular as both are in their home markets, the marriage of the two has had neither helping sales of the other anywhere.

I could be wrong, but as I see it, MS and RIM have to gobble up the other's marketshare to increase their own. Then the added strength will help eating into the android &/or iOS marketshare. But, at the moment, RIM's missteps are smaller than MS's. So, despite the BB10 delays and MS's money, I'm looking for RIM to grab the spotlight for number three.

[TheScionicMan]

In addition, it's always possible that some new application, operating system or hardware design will win over consumers the way the iPhone and Android have. "It's an open question how long this generation of smartphone leaders lasts before new ones emerge," Hsu says.

Yep, just ask MySpace how quickly you can be ousted from popularity...

[cgk]

I could be wrong, but as I see it, MS and RIM have to gobble up the other's marketshare to increase their own. Then the added strength will help eating into the android &/or iOS marketshare. But, at the moment, RIM's missteps are smaller than MS's. So, despite the BB10 delays and MS's money, I'm looking for RIM to grab the spotlight for number three.

It's really going to come down to marketing spend and even in their current state, Nokia are twice the size of RIM and and when coupled with marketing dollars from MS plus the fact that it appears that samsung and others will be releasing WP8 - it's a tough ask for RIM with their limited finances.

Even that, so far being third in the sector seem to amount to spending a lot of money for no or virtually no profits.

[Plazmic Flame]

I think RIM has a solid chance of getting the #3 spot in mobile even if they don't have the type of money that Apple and Samsung have. WP7/8 has been put out there but I don't think the adoption has gotten there yet. Even myself (as an iPhone 4S user) has been intrigued by WP7/8 but not to the point where I'm going to get it as my next phone.

The thing is that you have to remember that the majority of people with smartphones in the early days (Apple & Android explosion) mostly had Blackberry and WinMo devices and knew about the existence of the other. WinMo eventually died and Blackberry lived on. Then when the iPhone and Android came out, there was a bit of an exodus from the Blackberry camp.

So when the NEW Blackberry devices drop, everyone's ears are going to perk up and I think it would be more easier for people to go back to Blackberry than to decide to go with WP7/8.

[cgk]

I think RIM has a solid chance of getting the #3 spot in mobile even if they don't have the type of money that Apple and Samsung have. WP7/8 has been put out there but I don't think the adoption has gotten there yet. Even myself (as an iPhone 4S user) has been intrigued by WP7/8 but not to the point where I'm going to get it as my next phone.

But the point is that they have spent hundreds of millions if not billions to general levels of apathy, to be in the game, RIM have to spent the same and the end result might still not be success for either of them.

The thing is that you have to remember that the majority of people with smartphones in the early days (Apple & Android explosion) mostly had Blackberry and WinMo devices and knew about the existence of the other. WinMo eventually died and Blackberry lived on. Then when the iPhone and Android came out, there was a bit of an exodus from the Blackberry camp.

So when the NEW Blackberry devices drop, everyone's ears are going to perk up and I think it would be more easier for people to go back to Blackberry than to decide to go with WP7/8.

But that percentage of people who had a smartphone "back in the day" is tiny - it's not a particularly relevant factor in 2012 and certainly would not propel anyone into third.

[sam_b77]

Being a hardcore capitalist who values innovation, it's always been hard for me to go with a closed market scenario where the pundits say that there is only room for 2,3 or 4 players. History shows that no matter the market, there is always room for another player to come up with an innovative product and change the market. There is always room for an existing player as well, even if it is ranked 10th in the market.

Innovation is a fickle mistress and can be with any player, new or old. The only true fact is that a good product eventually wins out. A few years ago MS was untouchable in the desktop/laptop are, but with MacOSX, Apple has shown that it even MS can be rattled. Sure MS is still the king but it lost the emperor's position. Who knows that in a few years it may even be dethroned.
These two or three player market theories always sound far fetched for me. If they were true then we wouldn't have gone beyond the Ford Model T.

[darkmanx2g]

Yep, just ask MySpace how quickly you can be ousted from popularity...

I think you cant compare Myspace into the smartphone adoption. To actually leave a platform you are spending and investing money in a new platform. You leave your paid apps , music, magazines, movies, integrated cloud services, etc... and purchase a new library of apps. Leaving Myspace doesn't cost a penny.

It took about 3 years to see the erosion and downfall RIM transpired. Back in 2008/2009 at the peak of Blackberry, we were already criticizing the platform and voicing for change, I was one of them but RIM was arrogant and saw no reason to change. I do not see that with Apple and Android anytime soon, they are continuing to add more features and services and to try to one up each other and setting the standard moving forward.

And its a duopoly right now because Android creates competition within itself. So its really iOS, android- touchwiz, android - sense, android - motoblur, android - timescape, stock android with Nexus line, that have a different user experience. Its like counting Android into segments of competition.

Thats where RIM starting dying when Android became a big player because now they offer the different form factor, the battery, the sd slot, the led notifications, the keyboard and then add that with a robust ecosystem to challenge the iPhone.

This lead to the current space right now. Old dogs of the industry are dying off Palm, Nokia, RIM because they couldn't match these features and services to the overall population.