1. kennyliu's Avatar
    07-02-12 06:11 PM
  2. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    As one might expect, continued decline.

    At the risk of sounding like the Black Night from the Holy Grail, though ("Come back! I'll bite your kneecaps off!!), there is some slight solace for RIM in this report:

    Their platform share is, still, in double-digits, and Windows isn't making much of an advance.

    RIM's best move right now is to improve the attractiveness of its existing platform as much as humanly possible and try to stabilize that number. How they do this, I don't know...
    sleepngbear likes this.
    07-02-12 06:18 PM
  3. kennyliu's Avatar
    As one might expect, continued decline.

    At the risk of sounding like the Black Night from the Holy Grail, though ("Come back! I'll bite your kneecaps off!!), there is some slight solace for RIM in this report:

    Their platform share is, still, in double-digits, and Windows isn't making much of an advance.

    RIM's best move right now is to improve the attractiveness of its existing platform as much as humanly possible and try to stabilize that number. How they do this, I don't know...
    Both Microsoft and RIM are in a similar situation where they announced a new platform that will be incompatible with the old hardware.

    However, WP8 will be released in the Fall with what's expected to be very good developer support (they've already got 100,000 apps including most of the big name apps) and BB10 will (maybe) release in Winter/Spring 2013 with questionable developer support.

    So, by the time BB10 releases, Microsoft may become one of the big three whereas BB10 will have to pave its way to become #4.
    07-02-12 06:32 PM
  4. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    RIM may have to bite the bullet and find a way to enhance BB7, along with a fire-sale to get handsets out there.

    That's actually a more viable option for RIM than it would be for other manufacturers, given that they'll make something back on the bigger subscriber-base.
    howarmat and howarmat like this.
    07-02-12 06:38 PM
  5. howarmat's Avatar
    RIM may have to bite the bullet and find a way to enhance BB7, along with a fire-sale to get handsets out there.

    That's actually a more viable option for RIM than it would be for other manufacturers, given that they'll make something back on the bigger subscriber-base.
    i would agree except they already arent making enough from hardware sales so making less means less revenue. Now if the services from each device make up for the hit on hardware then its not a bad plan.
    07-02-12 07:21 PM
  6. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    i would agree except they already arent making enough from hardware sales so making less means less revenue. Now if the services from each device make up for the hit on hardware then its not a bad plan.
    The hardware's already been built and is ready to ship. They lose more letting it sit in a warehouse than they do by having it in the hand of a user paying a subscription fee.

    EDIT: I heard RIM makes something on the order of $5 per user per month. That's likely going to come down (the carriers are applying pressure and RIM's hardly in a position of strength), but it still beats having an unsold phone taking up warehouse space.
    07-02-12 07:29 PM
  7. howarmat's Avatar
    But they already wrote off the unshipped stock last quarter i think
    07-02-12 07:46 PM
  8. Fuzzballz's Avatar
    2% drop in 3 months? Did I read that right?
    07-03-12 12:11 AM
  9. cgk's Avatar
    i would agree except they already arent making enough from hardware sales so making less means less revenue. Now if the services from each device make up for the hit on hardware then its not a bad plan.
    According to the last earnings call, they make less than nothing overall on hardware and have negative gross margins - that is why the calls to spilt the company are increasing.
    07-03-12 05:16 AM
  10. VerryBestr's Avatar
    2% drop in 3 months? Did I read that right?
    Yes, a two percentage points lost in smartphone market share in the U.S. during three months, from 13.4% to 11.4%. These Comscore results concern only the U.S.

    Also, there was small drop from 11.6% market share a month earlier to 11.4%, but a slight increase in BB users from 12.4 million a month earlier to 12.5 million.

    Remember that these Comscore polling results only measure a respondent's "primary" phone. So these results undercount RIM's actual market share because it does not count those corporate-issued BBs to people who bought their own personal phones (which I presume they would consider their "primary" phone).

    The fact that these corporate-issued phones are not counted leads to some uncertainty in interpreting the Comscore BB trends. If companies were dropping corporate BB phones and allowing employees to bring their own, the Comscore polls would not see this movement at all and would not reflect the drop in BB usage. On the other hand, if more employees with corporate-issued BB phones were buying non-BB personal smartphones, Comscore would incorrectly see this as a decrease in BB phones in use.
    app_Developer and Alex_Hong like this.
    07-03-12 06:30 AM
  11. VerryBestr's Avatar
    According to the last earnings call, they make less than nothing overall on hardware and have negative gross margins ...
    But that is why RIM is drastically reducing headcount and trying reduce costs elsewhere. If sales were to stabilize or at least not drop too much further, margins should turn back positive after enough cost-saving measures are implemented.
    07-03-12 06:35 AM
  12. palomartian's Avatar
    RIM may have to bite the bullet and find a way to enhance BB7, along with a fire-sale to get handsets out there.

    That's actually a more viable option for RIM than it would be for other manufacturers, given that they'll make something back on the bigger subscriber-base.
    They would have to give them away and offer a free upgrade to a BB10 device. Nobody wants a Blackberry. They're embarrassing. That 11% is a three month rolling avg. RIM is below 10% by now and dropping fast. Apple and Samsung can't build phones fast enough and RIM is writing off inventory.
    07-03-12 09:24 AM
  13. sleepngbear's Avatar
    As one might expect, continued decline.

    At the risk of sounding like the Black Night from the Holy Grail, though ("Come back! I'll bite your kneecaps off!!), there is some slight solace for RIM in this report:

    Their platform share is, still, in double-digits, and Windows isn't making much of an advance.

    RIM's best move right now is to improve the attractiveness of its existing platform as much as humanly possible and try to stabilize that number. How they do this, I don't know...
    Well, for starters, they can't assume it's going to promote itself.
    Thunderbuck likes this.
    07-03-12 10:37 AM
  14. Shlooky's Avatar
    People have to realize that the US market is extremely critical to RIM's business. Most if not all investors are from North America, the US alone is a bigger market than Europe.

    I don't think investors care how RIM is doing in Africa or Asia. Their focus is on US or (NA) market share compared to Apple and Google. If those numbers are low, down goes the stock.
    Last edited by Shlooky; 07-03-12 at 10:50 AM.
    07-03-12 10:47 AM
  15. VerryBestr's Avatar
    ... the US alone is a bigger market than Europe. ...
    Why do you believe this? I don't have numbers from this year. But for July 2011, Comscore reported 82 million smartphone subscribers in the US, compared to 88 million smartphone subscribers in the five largest European countries alone (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK). The population of the European Union is nearly double the US population, and I believe the EU plus non-EU European countries has a total population about double that of the US.
    | http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...r_Market_Share
    | http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...atforms_in_EU5

    I would agree with your general point that the US is important for investors. The last quarterly report said that US sales had stabilized ... for how long, who knows.

    I don't think investors care how RIM is doing in Africa or Asia. Their focus is on US or (NA) market share compared to Apple and Google. If those numbers are low, down goes the stock.
    There is a view of RIM as two different companies. One sells (or at least, used to sell) a good percentage of expensive high-margin phones in developed countries. The other company sells mainly inexpensive low-margin phones in developing countries. What is interesting about this second company is that, while the numbers sold is not that large, the growth rate is very high. That has potential for the future, especially as the middle class grows in these countries. I'm not so certain that inexpensive android phones will kill RIM where BBM is important.
    07-03-12 12:35 PM
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