[cjcampbell]

Just read this article from Forbes....

Research In Motion Rallies As BB10 Moves Into Carrier Tests - Forbes

He seems to be at it again.

[sam_b77]

He is saying it from a point of view of buying stock. He's correct on that. All he is saying is that there is still no news which should make the stock rise sharply and give a profit to buyers. That's his job as an analysts. As of now RIMM has more of a downside than an upside. Maybe he will change his opinion if BB10 launches and does well.

[Roo Zilla]

Aside from him being bearish, which is not a big deal really, analysts are entitled to their opinions since that is their job after all, what part of what he said would you disagree with?

"He writes in a research note that labs trials typically take 3-6 months, which he says still points to a March launch for the first BB 10 devices. He also remains steadfast in his view that the company is not likely to be acquired or license the OS to outside hardware vendors before the launch.

“We believe there is no imminent sale of RIMM and any licensing deals are likely well after the launch of BB10,” he writes. “We think Samsung and some other Asian OEMs might be interested, but we think they see better terms and entry points months from now.”

Carriers do typically take about 90 days to do their testing, I think that's been a known factor for a while. RIM isn't likely to be acquired anytime soon, I think most would agree with that statement. Finally, RIM isn't going to license their OS, I think most would agree that is also correct.

[cjcampbell]

Carriers do typically take about 90 days to do their testing, I think that's been a known factor for a while. RIM isn't likely to be acquired anytime soon, I think most would agree with that statement. Finally, RIM isn't going to license their OS, I think most would agree that is also correct.[/QUOTE]

You're right.... 90 days which points to late January to early February for that time frame. He is still stuck on March (which yes, I understand is still a possiblity). Also, as I read his wording, it comes across as a bad thing that they are not selling or licencing. Maybe I'm reading it out of context but it seemed that way to me.

[Jonesy1966]

"He writes in a research note that labs trials typically take 3-6 months, which he says still points to a March launch for the first BB 10 devices. He also remains steadfast in his view that the company is not likely to be acquired or license the OS to outside hardware vendors before the launch.

When I worked for a large carrier in the UK, lab testing took anywhere from one to eight weeks, never 3 months plus.

[DenverRalphy]

When I worked for a large carrier in the UK, lab testing took anywhere from one to eight weeks, never 3 months plus.

With an already proven OS, and incremental hardware, sure...

With what basically amounts to an entirely new player in the field, it's a whole new ballgame. 3 months would be a conservative estimate in this case.

Swyped or Swifted via TapaTalk on my Galaxy Nexus.

[Thunderbuck]

Misek is pessimistic, sure, but his assessment is hardly unrealistic. The quote is reasonable, and fact based.

Where I had a problem with Misek was when he declared that RIM was doomed because they weren't launching BB10 until March. Not so much the date (which still falls in RIM's declared launch target of Q1), but in his implied judgement that it was another slippage.

In this case, all he's saying is "RIM's announcement of carrier testing doesn't prove me wrong".

[Thunderbuck]

With an already proven OS, and incremental hardware, sure...

With what basically amounts to an entirely new player in the field, it's a whole new ballgame. 3 months would be a conservative estimate in this case.

Swyped or Swifted via TapaTalk on my Galaxy Nexus.

If you look carefully at Heins' announcement yesterday, he wasn't saying that BB10 had just begun testing. He was saying that it was already in testing with more than 50 carriers. He didn't say when that testing actually started. If some carriers have already been testing for a month, then they're already that much further ahead.

[Thunderbuck]

He is saying it from a point of view of buying stock. He's correct on that. All he is saying is that there is still no news which should make the stock rise sharply and give a profit to buyers. That's his job as an analysts. As of now RIMM has more of a downside than an upside. Maybe he will change his opinion if BB10 launches and does well.

I completely disagree that RIM's downside outweighs its upside. Remember, no debt, and ~$2bln cash. They own all their own offices and facilities, and still hold a respectable patent portfolio. Current market cap (with the gains following Heins' announcement yesterday) is about $4.5bln, which values all of the company's assets at about $2.5bln after the cash is taken away. That's insanely undervalued.

Book value for the company is about $12/share. THAT'S your worst-case scenario.

[sam_b77]

I completely disagree that RIM's downside outweighs its upside. Remember, no debt, and ~$2bln cash. They own all their own offices and facilities, and still hold a respectable patent portfolio. Current market cap (with the gains following Heins' announcement yesterday) is about $4.5bln, which values all of the company's assets at about $2.5bln after the cash is taken away. That's insanely undervalued.

Book value for the company is about $12/share. THAT'S your worst-case scenario.

My downside comment was more of a short term investor game. Analysts advise for short term gains only. Their bonuses depend on that

[Thunderbuck]

My downside comment was more of a short term investor game. Analysts advise for short term gains only. Their bonuses depend on that

Fair enough. If you look strictly at the short-term and look at where the stock has been trading in the past six months, you're right. In fact, I'm sure enough that the gains between today and yesterday are likely enough to be given back that I'm selling my RIM holdings today in hopes of buying more when the price drifts back down into the mid-$7 range again.

[glamrlama]

If you want short term investment info here is some: since Sept 21st (launch of iPhone5): AAPL is down 14.8% RIMM is up 34.8%

[Jonesy1966]

With an already proven OS, and incremental hardware, sure...

With what basically amounts to an entirely new player in the field, it's a whole new ballgame. 3 months would be a conservative estimate in this case.

Swyped or Swifted via TapaTalk on my Galaxy Nexus.

Not so. When we got out first WP phones it took 5 weeks. I can't remember how long it took for the first Android but it certainly wasn't anywhere close to 3 months. What you may not realise is that certain carriers would share info and costs between similar other carriers. For instance, in North America it wouldn't be surprising if T-Mobile and at least one of the 3 AWS carriers in Canada were sharing the testing data and/or costs. It just makes sense. It makes even more sense when you consider that RIM has relationships with 650 carriers across the world, it would be nigh on impossible to launch a phone on time if each and everyone had to run full testing.

[cjcampbell]

Not so. When we got out first WP phones it took 5 weeks. I can't remember how long it took for the first Android but it certainly wasn't anywhere close to 3 months. What you may not realise is that certain carriers would share info and costs between similar other carriers. For instance, in North America it wouldn't be surprising if T-Mobile and at least one of the 3 AWS carriers in Canada were sharing the testing data and/or costs. It just makes sense. It makes even more sense when you consider that RIM has relationships with 650 carriers across the world, it would be nigh on impossible to launch a phone on time if each and everyone had to run full testing.

I am by no means discounting what you are saying, but if this is so, why then, is everyone dead set on this 3-6 months to test? I have read other articles that say 1 week to many weeks but no mention of months, yet the majority say the former. I appreciate the insight of those that know more due to actually being a part of the process. The internet is full of misinformation.

[anon(3310921)]

If you look carefully at Heins' announcement yesterday, he wasn't saying that BB10 had just begun testing. He was saying that it was already in testing with more than 50 carriers. He didn't say when that testing actually started. If some carriers have already been testing for a month, then they're already that much further ahead.

Good point. . .once again this info only indicates that RIM is apparently on track for their targeted launch window. . .it terms of how much time the testing process takes I don't see the relevance. . .unless RIM started talking to carriers in December . . .then I'd be worried . . .What I would love to hear are more vocal and definitive commitments from carriers when it comes to BB10. . .maybe later this month we'll hear more on that. . .maybe. . .

[notfanboy]

“We believe there is no imminent sale of RIMM and any licensing deals are likely well after the launch of BB10,” he writes. “We think Samsung and some other Asian OEMs might be interested, but we think they see better terms and entry points months from now.”

The subtext here is that they are expecting RIM to be in greater distress and consequently to be a cheaper acquisition target after the launch of BB10.

[Jonesy1966]

I am by no means discounting what you are saying, but if this is so, why then, is everyone dead set on this 3-6 months to test? I have read other articles that say 1 week to many weeks but no mention of months, yet the majority say the former. I appreciate the insight of those that know more due to actually being a part of the process. The internet is full of misinformation.

Sorry, I didn't mean to give you the impression that I was downplaying your comments or anything like that, I was just trying to plug what I thought was a hole in the info. I was never on the PR side of things so I have no idea why 3-6 months is bandied around so much, I would imagine that it's to give both the carrier and manufacturer some sort of leeway if things bugger up in testing. Most testing goes smoothly as the manufacturer ensures that all tools are available to the carrier. In this case RIM would ensure a carrier would already have access to updated BIS & BES. Also, RIM has probably tested the carp out of this OS already and are probably pretty confident that testing will be as close to flawless as possibly and if there are concerns they should at least be minor. I think RIM was running early testing themselves some 6 months ago.

[cjcampbell]

[QUOTE=Jonesy1966;7707174]Sorry, I didn't mean to give you the impression that I was downplaying your comments or anything like that

I by no means felt that you were. I was actually looking to you to explain the massive variant in timing that's been floating around for this process. To be honest, the first time I heard any sort of timeline for this was when Misek forcast a March realease due to the 3-6 month testing period.

[Caymancroc]

He is saying it from a point of view of buying stock. He's correct on that. All he is saying is that there is still no news which should make the stock rise sharply and give a profit to buyers. That's his job as an analysts. As of now RIMM has more of a downside than an upside. Maybe he will change his opinion if BB10 launches and does well.

If you listen to analysts or Jim Cramer, you will be poor. Afterall, Jim Cramer said he didn't like RIM yesterday. The market again smacked him in the face today when it rallied huge. Cramer also said he like LVS when it was $140 and to not buy it when it was under $2. What is funny is that Cramer and others look at everything so myopically, that they often overlook the real opportunity. I do agree that RIM will not be sold in the near term, but I don't agree there will be better entry points in the future UNLESS RIM releases the next gen BB with a seriously buggy and laggy OS.

I bet there are a ton of poor saps in the future that will be hitting the buy button when Misek issues his buy recommendation after it rallies for the next few years and is trading at high prices. The time to buy a stock is when it is low.

Even after today's rally RIM is seriously undervalued. Buy when no one else is buying. Hold it until everyone else wants it. That is how you make money in life.

Also, does anyone here know anyone that is ultra-wealthy because some analyst told them to avoid or buy something? The only people I know that are super wealthy are ones that took risk.

[Superfly_FR]

Didn't know who to reply to ... so, to "all", about testing processes and timing : What does it mean for RIM to be in carrier lab testing with BlackBerry 10? | CrackBerry.com

Carrier testing is the last major technical step before a smartphone hits the market. BlackBerry 10 hardware has to pass a lot of other tests before a carrier will bother to spend any time doing acceptance testing.
The first of these tests is functional. These tests are all done in-house and relate to the different components of the device working as expected. You don't get anywhere close to seeing Dev Alpha hardware without this being done.
Next comes inter-operability Testing (IOT). This refers to the network-related components (cellular, WiFi, Bluetooth, NFC) and can be different for each carrier and their network vendors (e.g AT&T and their supplier ALU and Ericsson).
Then comes certification testing. These tests are defined by standards bodies such as the 3GPP for cellular tests.
RIM conducts all of these tests at a combination of internal labs, third party labs and wireless infrastructure vendor labs. Carriers won't bother moving forward with their own acceptance testing until these other milestones are achieved.
Once a device hits the carrier labs, in my experience, we're looking at 60-90 days before it can be commercially launched. So this means a January launch of BlackBerry 10 is possible, but I personally wouldn't place a bet on it just yet (Kevin on the other hand, probably would bet a car, but he does dumb stuff like that).

[abwan11]

Peter Misek is a bum, plain and simple, I gave him a dime the other day after he squigied my windshield, front and back mind you. I guess it doesn't pay to be a analyst on the wrong side of things.

[Thunderbuck]

Good point. . .once again this info only indicates that RIM is apparently on track for their targeted launch window. . .it terms of how much time the testing process takes I don't see the relevance. . .unless RIM started talking to carriers in December . . .then I'd be worried . . .What I would love to hear are more vocal and definitive commitments from carriers when it comes to BB10. . .maybe later this month we'll hear more on that. . .maybe. . .

Don't underestimate the value of Heins' announcement; RIM has earned itself a reputation for blowing release targets. Anything that reinforces the proposition that RIM is actually becoming reliable is very heartening.

[VeGiTo]

If carrier testing finishes ahead of schedule and, by some miracle, they can release BB10 sometime in December, I've already thought of the perfect ad campaign for them.

"This year, Christmas is arriving early. #BB10"

This one single line, tweeted by a prominent BlackBerry/RIM account, will go viral instantly and cause the stock to rally another 10% on the day of. I guarantee it.

[Thunderbuck]

If carrier testing finishes ahead of schedule and, by some miracle, they can release BB10 sometime in December, I've already thought of the perfect ad campaign for them.

"This year, Christmas is arriving early. #BB10"

This one single line, tweeted by a prominent BlackBerry/RIM account, will go viral instantly and cause the stock to rally another 10% on the day of. I guarantee it.

There are SOOOOO many variables that affect a launch that even if carrier testing did wrap up early, it would only be one step among many. Bear this in mind: Q1 2013 is next quarter already. Marketing is already deeply engaged in its media buys and event planning. Moving up the launch throws all that effort into chaos.

And while some investors likely WOULD be impressed with an early launch, to others it would just reinforce that RIM management is bad at setting targets.

I see from a couple of other forum posts that RIM is already spreading some early word that BB10 is coming. Let this launch unfold as planned.

[RubenDM]

Don't underestimate the value of Heins' announcement; RIM has earned itself a reputation for blowing release targets. Anything that reinforces the proposition that RIM is actually becoming reliable is very heartening.

Well maybe they will blow the release target and get it out sooner