02-23-13 06:37 PM
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  1. drummer_god's Avatar
    analysts are setting the bar low ( and the share price ), so when BB announces sales, it exceeds expectations and the share price rockets and everyone ( including the analysts who are currently bashing BB, but secretly buying shares cheap ) gets rich.
    Kid Vibe, THBW and Miguel Calvo like this.
    02-21-13 11:47 AM
  2. Zarpan's Avatar
    This part is interesting since there is a lot of other information that backs up his channel checks as plausible. Granted, these channel checks are very limited by geography and number, so they may not be representative, but the other information does not contradict it at least.

    1. UK will sell around 30 million smartphones in 2013.

    2. There are around 3000-4000 stores (counting Carphone Warehouse, Phones 4 U, EE, Vodafone, and the other places mentioned for the UK launch).

    3. Each store will therefore sell around 23 smartphones per day on average.

    4. Kantar Worldpanel had around a 35% share for iPhone in the UK = 8 iPhones per store per day - which is close to the 5-6 per day he mentioned, plus he checked a smaller than average store.

    5. The Z10 is listed as the 5th best selling smartphone at Carphone Warehouse and Phones 4 U, and is #4 on Uswitch's top 10 phones. This seems to match with the note that the Z10 is selling well, but not as well as the iPhone or Galaxy S III.

    6. Some estimates mentioned that the iPhone was still selling as many as 40% 4S's still, so the 4S's share could be as high as 14%. The Z10 is somewhere less than that.

    7. If you assume that the iPhone is selling about 3:1 to the Z10, then the Z10's share would be 11-12%. This equals about 275k-300k units per month. Could be off obviously, but probably no worse than any of the other channel checks out there.



    Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone5, Black Market Thriving - Seeking Alpha

    Major UK Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone5, Black Market Thriving
    Feb 21, 2013 | by Michael Collins | about: BBRY
    ...
    Smaller Location Retailer chat:
    They had a small quantity on launch day and they sold all those straight away, waited a few more days got another 10 or 20 in and sold all of those. At the moment though they probably have about five of each. They are probably selling a few a day. It's not as much as they do with the other phones and they probably sell more iPhone5, and Galaxy S3s (SSNLF.PK). He agreed to a 3 to 1 iPhone to Z10 selling rate, which I suggested, so this can only be taken with a grain of salt as I suggested the number.
    ....

    They are actually selling more than expected
    They are working towards a goal of three handsets [contracts only] per day
    This compares to 5-6 for iPhones and the S3 each. Basically out of 13-15 high-end smart phones, Z10 should be three of those.
    They thought they would have to do a lot of work to sell them but they didn't, walk-ins simply know what they want. They just want to be directed onto the right tariff.
    He also noted 4G is very helpful in selling the Z10, as well as BBM video for the younger generation and the screen sharing"
    Dapper37 likes this.
    02-21-13 11:51 AM
  3. richardat's Avatar
    I'm commenting in general. You are correct ... it comes from looking at your posts. You seem predisposed to hone in on negativity and dismiss positivity. Nothing wrong with it. Just an observation. You certainly aren't alone, nor is it wrong to be skeptical at times.
    Again, I think that comes from fanboy bias (which is not to say I think you're extreme by any means, I think you are open-minded, but you are pulling for BB, and thus, it bothers you to see "negativity')
    1."positivity" and "negativity" are completely subjective....dependent on the judgment of the perceiver, which in turn is dependent on several subfactors.
    2.I don't think I "dismiss" or "accept" things without providing some rationale, or without being willing to provide some upon being questioned (actually, just a couple days ago, I left a thread behind...somebody questioned me about a seeking alpha article...I started typing a reply, and after a few min. realized I was typing a lengthy reply debunking seeking alpha, and that I'd probably have to defend that as well. Not worth it. My mistake for even commenting on a Seeking Alpha blog thread!

    So I'd prefer, to be meaningful, people comment on what I'm specifically saying. You can say "you're negative", as a generalized statement, and it's neither provable or quantifiable. To refute such a statement would require me to go back and analyze/present my posts "in general"....an enormous task to say the least. Thus, I don't think your statement is fair. We can talk about a specific statement, and I can explain to you why I said it (and I will, because we've had some good discourse!), but this cannot be responded to reasonably.

    PS. You'll note, as I have said..."countless" times, I"m very pessimistic about RIM'S future. That's not by choice LOL! I don't see a scenario where they can thrive, nor have any been presented to me. Hoping they do well (which I actually do....if only to spite the one corporation I take personally: MS), and thinking they are doing well, or will do well, are two different things. For people who are emotionally invested in RIM, I have no doubt that many of my posts will seem "negative"! Of course, that's a far cry from pessimistic/negative/skeptical in general. If I look back at tech stock picks I've made, all have been ones I've been optimistic about - I've never shorted a stock. (accordingly, I have no position in RIM...I don't in general follow tech to invest.) The AMD athlon made me a lot of money, ATI made me a lot of money....my posts about those were anything but "negative". If I don't have many "positive" things to say about BB these days, it isn't for lack of trying...actually I spend some time hesitating, thinking about ways to slightly sugar-coat things, or leave some things unspoken (eg. from THIS thread "if they don't....." knowing how sensitive people are here, though in general, we're all supposed to be grown-ups here. You might note that in the thread I started about Canaccord cutting sales volume, I didn't say....ANYTHING...in the intial post. This is due to 1.not wanting to deal with the bullying from extremists, and 2. not particularly having faith in any analyst. I simply put it out there because it was "big" news. (another reason is that I find the "stock" posters/threads so hopelessly ignorant and misguided, I gave up on those long ago....some of the most emotional posters of all...and with no consistent thought process about what they're doing.....short/long term, stock or company, speculation/fundamentals.....just wildly jump around advocated whatever spins things "positive" for RIM. If the stock goes up for a week, then this is it!!!! If the stock goes down for the week, it's just the market! Means nothing!!! Very bad way to invest and even more scary: to advocate others do)

    To be blunt, speaking in general:
    I don't think BB has much of a future in the long term. I said before the launch that they need to put everything in, and knock one right out of the park with a drop-dead product, while in reality their recent products have been anything but. This is what you need now, no matter who you are. Consider: I come to you and say, hey, I'm going to start a new phone platform! I have some money (a "lot" but not nearly as much as Samsung/Apple)....I'll call it "lemontea". What's Lemontea like you ask? Well, it does most of what android/ios can do...and hey, that's saying a lot, it isn't easy to start a new platform with most of the features of the mature ones these days! It doesn't really do anything extra-special, it doesn't have any sister-products: tablets (yes, PB, but PB is essentially a non-entity at this point, and possibly a slight negative in terms of reputation), computers etc. nor does it have the kind of app-support of the big boys, but the way I implemented the UI, it has some nice features...nothing you really can't do with any other phone, but I think it's a bit easier to transition among tasks in many cases with my phone. Now, would you say "wow, you really should! You're going to have great success!!!". I think probably not. The smart person would say: "How are you going to compete against Apple and Samsung with that?? You know, it's not just getting the phone out there....that just starts the race, then you've got to compete in development and apps with them, at breakneck speed."

    I think BB did a good job of getting the phone out - in fact, I'd say, it's as good as I could have possibly hoped for, but I don't think that's anywhere near good enough. Now there are may other factors, a few might help, some will hurt: the transition in services, the enterprise servers, the BB base in developing countries, etc. but all in all, I see these things swaying more toward the negative. In fact, the only bright spot historically has been the developing countries sales, but I don't know that it can save them here.

    Unless a huge product/service is revealed, the best case scenario I see is that they are able to break-even (small profit), redeem some of their bad reputation, and live to fight in the next couple iterations. I think more and more have trended towards (not necessarily reached yet) my view since launch, and I think more will as the year progresses - that is not to say my view was extraordinarily insightful, I think it was fairly obvious, but it is to say, a lot of people here, have seen through rose colored Rims.

    Might I be wrong? Might there be a huge wave of demand/sales that are going to allow them to sell 50+ million BB10 devices? (note: that's still 1/6 what Apple is forecast to move) Maybe. If I am, that will be pretty exciting for sure. I won't be unhappy!

    There is much more to say, but I grow weary. It's time for a weighted-backpack hike! You are invited.
    Last edited by richardat; 02-21-13 at 12:28 PM.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    02-21-13 12:18 PM
  4. richardat's Avatar
    Oh, and the other thing Rubber Duck, since we're laying it all out is: I don't have any faith in the current management. I said before launch, to the "in Thor we trust/what a turnaround/RIM will be #1 very soon" crowd was: I don't see evidence of Thor proving anything yet - we shall see!

    "oh, but look at the apps!!! He gets it!! He's totally changed the app situation!!!' they cried. Well......

    Since launch I see:
    -Alicia keys (BAD but minor - waste of money...shows bad judgment in marketing)
    -commercial (BAD and somewhat important- maybe not as bad as superheros....but waste of money, and total misfire....still no focus, still no clear target, still no clear awarenss, or buzz. In fact, I think the CARRIERS are doing 100% better in marketing the Z10)
    -us launch (BAD, very bad)
    -app situation (BAD, very bad)
    -not speaking up if there are truly great numbers (BAD, but minor - nevertheless, you really do not want any bad buzz right now....they should know this well)
    -PB (ambiguous - which is bad...yes, others argue...hey, one product at a time....well yes, if you can ONLY manage one product at a time, nor do you have to release more than one at once, but it sure wouldn't hurt to have a coherent plan, with a firm (but not necessary exact) timeframe for execution, that will illustrate tablet plans, and ecosystem plans)
    -the presentation (BAD but minor)
    JeepBB likes this.
    02-21-13 12:39 PM
  5. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Oh, and the other thing Rubber Duck, since we're laying it all out is: I don't have any faith in the current management. I said before launch, to the "in Thor we trust/what a turnaround/RIM will be #1 very soon" crowd was: I don't see evidence of Thor proving anything yet - we shall see!

    "oh, but look at the apps!!! He gets it!! He's totally changed the app situation!!!' they cried. Well......

    Since launch I see:
    -Alicia keys (BAD but minor - waste of money...shows bad judgment in marketing)
    -commercial (BAD and somewhat important- maybe not as bad as superheros....but waste of money, and total misfire....still no focus, still no clear target, still no clear awarenss, or buzz. In fact, I think the CARRIERS are doing 100% better in marketing the Z10)
    -us launch (BAD, very bad)
    -app situation (BAD, very bad)
    -not speaking up if there are truly great numbers (BAD, but minor - nevertheless, you really do not want any bad buzz right now....they should know this well)
    -PB (ambiguous - which is bad...yes, others argue...hey, one product at a time....well yes, if you can ONLY manage one product at a time, nor do you have to release more than one at once, but it sure wouldn't hurt to have a coherent plan, with a firm (but not necessary exact) timeframe for execution, that will illustrate tablet plans, and ecosystem plans)
    -the presentation (BAD but minor)
    Feel free to send your resume to the board of directors. ;-)
    02-21-13 01:54 PM
  6. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Richardat, you referred me here from the thread on Faucette's dire warning. Let's break this down:

    -Alicia keys (BAD but minor - waste of money...shows bad judgment in marketing)
    "Bad", in whose opinion? You may not be a fan but she's generally regarded as a talent. A rather classy one at that. Personally, I thought she was a pretty decent choice. Waaaaay better than Samsung's questionable use of noted cry-baby Lebron James.

    -commercial (BAD and somewhat important- maybe not as bad as superheros....but waste of money, and total misfire....still no focus, still no clear target, still no clear awarenss, or buzz. In fact, I think the CARRIERS are doing 100% better in marketing the Z10)
    Hmmmm. Got a lot of positive votes at nfl.com, though, so evidently it made some kind of impression. Again, just because you don't like it personally doesn't mean it's actually bad. I'll agree that carriers may be making better ads (and in fact, I liked the tv ad that BB launched in Canada the day after the Super Bowl), but that doesn't mean it was a bad ad or a bad idea.

    -us launch (BAD, very bad)
    Not optimal, but not a disaster either. Remember that BB is not the first mobile manufacturer to launch a phone that had a lag before it was actually on sale. The Nokia Lumia 920 got "launched" on September 5 but wasn't available until November. The Galaxy S4 is about to launch in a couple of weeks, but won't actually be seen in the US until May or so. So, no, I'm not seeing "very bad" here.

    -app situation (BAD, very bad)
    It could always be better, sure, but worth remembering that there's a body of users out there who don't seem to be "into" apps that much, and a lot of potential buyers who have never had a smartphone before. They may not actually care. Absolutely, this situation needs to be improved and there's reason to believe that there should be a better selection by the time of the US launch.

    -not speaking up if there are truly great numbers (BAD, but minor - nevertheless, you really do not want any bad buzz right now....they should know this well)
    They've said lots about sales. Heins has bragged about the reception in the UK and said the Canadian launch was 50% better than any other BB launch. Did he give specific numbers? No, because all that happens then is critics parse the number and drive the arguments off into the weeds. Numbers will come on the quarterly call next month.

    -PB (ambiguous - which is bad...yes, others argue...hey, one product at a time....well yes, if you can ONLY manage one product at a time, nor do you have to release more than one at once, but it sure wouldn't hurt to have a coherent plan, with a firm (but not necessary exact) timeframe for execution, that will illustrate tablet plans, and ecosystem plans)
    MAYBE I agree on this one a little bit. But you also have to grant that the PlayBook hasn't been a huge success. Mentioning it doesn't do much for the brand. I trust updates are coming. I'm good with that. I find it hard to believe investors would care one way or the other.

    -the presentation (BAD but minor)
    "BAD" in what way? It was concise (likely TOO concise for this community, but we don't need a lot of convincing). It was low-key, too, which was likely a matter of keeping expectations low. I would have liked better, but I don't know that it's really that big a deal. As you say, it's "minor".

    I've seen BB management under Heins improve considerably in the past year. From a company that couldn't seem to hit a single target back in 2011, BB did a pretty good job of it last year. They accepted that they were in a rough situation, acknowledged it, and put their collective shoulders into pushing the company out of the ditch. They maintained decent sales through most of the year, kept their networks reliable for the most part, and developed a decent product in the midst of the most hostile business environment I can imagine.

    I think they're managing this launch VERY carefully.
    02-21-13 06:06 PM
  7. Tyndale2021's Avatar
    Feel free to send your resume to the board of directors. ;-)
    I don't think Richardat can do that as he has been there....the need to so strongly defend his positions on a fan forum, his continuing crtical analyses of current Blackberry Management....wait for it:

    Unmasked: Richardat is in fact (insert Drum Roll here)....Jim Balsillie
    02-21-13 06:21 PM
  8. Bla1ze's Avatar
    So wait...

    When Misek says good thing about BlackBerry, people trust him?
    But when he says bad things about BlackBerry, he's told to sod off?

    Yeah, best to just ignore Misek entirely. His accuracy track record on ALL things he talks about is enough to not even give a damn.
    02-21-13 06:37 PM
  9. Emu the Foo's Avatar
    This all points to positive stuff and bb should go and murk all the slanderers.
    richardat likes this.
    02-21-13 06:55 PM
  10. silversmith75's Avatar
    it also depends on the apps...and word of mouth.. if you look at the internet..there are alot of bad reviews. how boring the phones is bla bla ba. but if you look at user reviews i would say 95% love it..so it is going to take people telling other people about how great the phone is...
    02-21-13 07:08 PM
  11. howarmat's Avatar
    So wait...

    When Misek says good thing about BlackBerry, people trust him?
    But when he says bad things about BlackBerry, he's told to sod off?

    Yeah, best to just ignore Misek entirely. His accuracy track record on ALL things he talks about is enough to not even give a damn.
    what else you expect from this place lol
    02-21-13 07:08 PM
  12. bbjdog's Avatar
    Canada alone should accumulate to approx. 300k to 500k. Bell Canada has 2000 retailers in Canada. If they sell only one unit per day, that equals to 20000 units for the month of February. Now throw in Rogers, Telus, Wind, Fido, Sasktel, Best buy, Wal-Mart and so on. That is only one unit per day, but we know that we had the best day in BB launch history.
    02-21-13 08:42 PM
  13. mathking606's Avatar
    Can someone tell me how many bold 9900s were sold when they were released since Thor said it was 50% better than any other BlackBerry phone release in Canada.
    02-21-13 08:46 PM
  14. TomJasper's Avatar
    So wait...

    When Misek says good thing about BlackBerry, people trust him?
    But when he says bad things about BlackBerry, he's told to sod off?

    Yeah, best to just ignore Misek entirely. His accuracy track record on ALL things he talks about is enough to not even give a damn.
    Lol, so true. ANALysts in general are wrong more times than right, also many have their own agendas.All one needs to do is read these ANALysts from Jan.2012 to just before Z10 launch,majority wrote Blackberry off, now they want to be relevant, F them, Blackberry numbers will speak loud and clear in the 1/4s going forward.

    Apple at $1,000/share and Blackberry DOA, yeah right, I hear crickets now to that scenario,lol. Fact is Blackberry is taking market share from other phone providers, soon we will see who lost the most market share to Blackberry, my bet is Apple loses the most market share to Blackberry.

    Marked and filed!
    02-21-13 09:13 PM
  15. TomJasper's Avatar
    what else you expect from this place lol
    I didn't get the sense he meant "this place" (Crackberry posters/readers) , I think the thrust was ppl in general ie markets. Crackberry readers/posters I would think are more prone to be better informed than the general masses somebody like Misek preaches to out of both sides of his mouth.
    02-21-13 09:20 PM
  16. richardat's Avatar
    Richardat, you referred me here from the thread on Faucette's dire warning. Let's break this down:



    "Bad", in whose opinion? You may not be a fan but she's generally regarded as a talent. A rather classy one at that. Personally, I thought she was a pretty decent choice. Waaaaay better than Samsung's questionable use of noted cry-baby Lebron James.".
    LOL! OF COURSE it's my opinion!! That's why I wrote it. "Bad" is always an opinion! I thought it was terrible, and I've described it before. I'd say the same thing if they paraded out Lebron James in a suit. I'll reiterate a bit, frankly, I am amazed in this day and age that we still do ridiculous celeb endorsements....it's truly a tactic aimed at the weak-minded. However, if you are going to do it, I can't think of a more condescending and silly way to do it than to have this silly subtext of her being a "director"...and of her adding input to the platform.....it's no better than saying lebron James is our new CFO. Finally, my belief is that, if you are going to rely on a tactic like this, then I'd pick some teen bopper star. Justin Bieber or something....(yes, I realize he's out of there price range). why? Well....teens may be more influence this way....there WILL be preteens who will buy a BB only because Bieber has one. This is a great target audience for them to, as they don't have negative conceptions of BB. What I think went wrong is that they are confused, and sometimes try to tell themselves they are aiming at "professionals", and thus they think Keys is a better fit. Well...I'd say professionals...any "grown-ups", or even mature kids won't give a nut what Keys is paid to say about cellphones. Do you? Of course not. THAT is why I think it a waste of resources as I said. The fact that it backfired with the bad press, was not predictable, and I don't hold that against them.

    Hmmmm. Got a lot of positive votes at nfl.com, though, so evidently it made some kind of impression. Again, just because you don't like it personally doesn't mean it's actually bad. I'll agree that carriers may be making better ads (and in fact, I liked the tv ad that BB launched in Canada the day after the Super Bowl), but that doesn't mean it was a bad ad or a bad idea.".
    C'mon...you're smarter than that I think Thunderbuck. Are you trying to discuss this with ME, or win a rhetoric war? Do you think an online vote (yes...we've all read threads about this lately) is going to impress me? To the contrary, if you believe that to be an indicator even of it's impact, I'd question your judgement. But hey, i didn't object TO a commercial, I thought the commercial itself very very very poor. Again, similar to Keys, it was misconceived, and I am now very worried about the current marketing team. As I posted at the time, (see that thread for more), it was a brand aura commercial...that works for popular, brands simply as a reminder of presence. It does NOT work on a tarnished brand that needs to get info about a new OS out. If you agree with me that the carriers are doing better commercials, then that itself should tell you something. If a carrier, can make a better commercial, just showing, with excitement, the phone bouncing around....then do you really think wasting a big opportunity with a kid with elephant legs was "good"? They'd have been better off using a Rogers or Telus commercial, and just showing that during the superbowl.

    Not optimal, but not a disaster either. Remember that BB is not the first mobile manufacturer to launch a phone that had a lag before it was actually on sale. The Nokia Lumia 920 got "launched" on September 5 but wasn't available until November. The Galaxy S4 is about to launch in a couple of weeks, but won't actually be seen in the US until May or so. So, no, I'm not seeing "very bad" here.".
    I see it as very bad, and I think a lot of people do, and that's been well discussed both ways. In short, they lose momentum, in perhaps the most crucial market, they run into the other big releases. I'm not sure why you appeal to other lags. First, the fact that otehrs have done it does not make it good...in fact, Lumia is probably the worst thing to cite, since it hardly tore up the market. In any case, I don't think it's ever good, but frankly, Apple and Samsung could do it and it'd be fine. It would produce grumbling from the faithful there, but, when the phone is launched, it would still have the same impact. I could announce the iphone 6 from a bathroom somewhere, and then launch it two months later, and it would still get huge attention, and huge sales. BB can't afford that, and you know it! They need everything they can possibly muster to execute a high-impact launch. How many threads even on CB BEFORE the launch explicitly said that the lag can't be too long.....and a lot of them were thinking 2 weeks!


    It could always be better, sure, but worth remembering that there's a body of users out there who don't seem to be "into" apps that much, and a lot of potential buyers who have never had a smartphone before. They may not actually care. Absolutely, this situation needs to be improved and there's reason to believe that there should be a better selection by the time of the US launch.
    ".
    Yep I agree. I'm one of them, but there's also no denying it's extremely important to many. It's a huge barrier to entry now, and there is no easy solution to it. Still, I had hoped that - especially given the extra time(!) - that they'd have those key big names in place and ready to go. Admittedly, there is only so much they can do here, but whatever happened...whoever's fault it was...it's a real failure.



    They've said lots about sales. Heins has bragged about the reception in the UK and said the Canadian launch was 50% better than any other BB launch. Did he give specific numbers? No, because all that happens then is critics parse the number and drive the arguments off into the weeds. Numbers will come on the quarterly call next month.".
    I don't think that's all that happens at all. If the numbers are good, they say it all. All this media conspiracy stuff....it's truly ridiculous. Just a month ago, most were proclaiming the media had turned around, and hailed all the "good" press....i guess the "critics" didn't get their payoffs that month, or they just suddenly decided they love BB, not hate BB, and were, for a few weeks, not out to "get" BB. Look, all people have some bias, but if good numbers are reported, it gets good press....and vice versa. In any case, since they will get the numbers eventually, the only reason not to divulge is because you don't want to people to know the numbers for as long as possible. (my GUESS is that they are really hoping that the new launches will help get the numbers up by then...if not....might as well face the music then, and not now), but I'm GIVING him the benefit of the doubt, and saying IF the numbers are GREAT, and he doesn't say them, it's a HUGE blunder. i honestly do not see that as controversial. If you think the numbers are not so great, THEN you could say "oh...maybe better to hold back...these are so-so".

    MAYBE I agree on this one a little bit. But you also have to grant that the PlayBook hasn't been a huge success. Mentioning it doesn't do much for the brand. I trust updates are coming. I'm good with that. I find it hard to believe investors would care one way or the other.".
    I agree that it wouldnt' do a lot, unless you have either some serious development/products, or unless you can lay out an interesting future integration. If you don't, then I'm fine with leaving out big announcements, but what I would like, and what I was thinking of when I wrote that, is just announcing for long-suffering PB owners, "hey, BB10 is coming....in April." Surely, they could give at least a month.


    "BAD" in what way? It was concise (likely TOO concise for this community, but we don't need a lot of convincing). It was low-key, too, which was likely a matter of keeping expectations low. I would have liked better, but I don't know that it's really that big a deal. As you say, it's "minor".
    I thought...it was cringe-worthy...in that I was literally cringing....I think a lot of people were. Man...the guy over and over had long pauses of awkward silence hoping for applause....even that stupid stand with the phones was brutal!! NOTE: if ever releasing a critical product for a huge multinational corporation, if want to have dramatic rising platform, go all out for real platform....dont' get a modified music stand, and a bit of dry ice. Or just pull it out of your pocket or an envelope like Jobs. But again, that is minor, and wont' affect business at all. It does make me wonder a bit about the judgment of Heins and the marketing team, when there careful planning, with the "world" watching, produced...that.

    I've seen BB management under Heins improve considerably in the past year. From a company that couldn't seem to hit a single target back in 2011, BB did a pretty good job of it last year. They accepted that they were in a rough situation, acknowledged it, and put their collective shoulders into pushing the company out of the ditch. They maintained decent sales through most of the year, kept their networks reliable for the most part, and developed a decent product in the midst of the most hostile business environment I can imagine..
    I really don't see anything inspired there. Frankly, ANY person on earth, Peewee Herman for example, would come forward and say 'we made some mistakes, and things are rough, but we're starting a new day here!!" There really is no choice. I agree, sales were good given the situation....did RIM do something to spark that? I'm not aware of any big changes made there. Yes, the networks were fairly reliable....but weren't they always? BB10 has been in the works "|forever", they continued this and finished it....that's good. In the meantime, Heins did not supply (still does not supply) any concrete info about playbook, info about services was muddled, info about BES/BIS etc. was so muddled, it caused bad press and controversy! You know this is true. The one thing I thought Heins did well at was firing people! Seriously, I thought they did a good job cost-cutting, and that too was crucial. I don't think BB has done an unusually BAD job, but I think the info flow is middling at best, I think the launch was bungled (and come on people....even those who love BB....2 months ago, is this how you envisioned it? IF you had known then there'd be an anemic launch announcement, 2 months delay in the US, missing apps, no PB info, no numbers admit reports of lackluster sales, I doubt very much anybody reading this would have thought: what a success! Good job!) I realize now, that people feel the need to defend BB and their beliefs, and cling to hope. Sorry. Remember, it's just a phone, and BB is just a huge corporation, and they don't actually know you at all.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree Thunder. I do appreciate your lengthy and thoughtful response, and there is some common ground.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    02-21-13 10:10 PM
  17. WillieLee's Avatar
    geez... why read so deep into these... just enjoy the Z10 and be done with it.

    you guys are so sensitive. The Z10 is a wonderful device... it will sell.
    The influx of analyst opinions has been a terrible one in the world of technology reporting. The vast majority of interesting and revolutionary technology steps have been failures and it's only years later that the ideas they tried were reworked and brought to the market and been successful. Yet today, the strength of the businesses are somehow more important than what people are trying to accomplish.

    I am loyal to BlackBerry and love the Z10. But I have much more money invested in Apple because they make the most money in the sector. But that has no bearing on how much I enjoy the Z10. What's really odd is when people who don't invest in the stock market tout the economic performances of the companies in stating that their device is better. They're devices to mess around with and people should just enjoy their device and not spend so much time worrying about things that are beyond their control.
    02-22-13 01:45 AM
  18. Akure4Life's Avatar
    Analyst can chat fraff about Z10 for all i care. I got my Z10 and i am happy with it.

    End of story
    Masahiro likes this.
    02-22-13 05:10 AM
  19. raysgrumpy's Avatar
    Lol, so true. ANALysts in general are wrong more times than right, also many have their own agendas.All one needs to do is read these ANALysts from Jan.2012 to just before Z10 launch,majority wrote Blackberry off, now they want to be relevant, F them, Blackberry numbers will speak loud and clear in the 1/4s going forward.

    Apple at $1,000/share and Blackberry DOA, yeah right, I hear crickets now to that scenario,lol. Fact is Blackberry is taking market share from other phone providers, soon we will see who lost the most market share to Blackberry, my bet is Apple loses the most market share to Blackberry.

    Marked and filed!
    It's a fact that Blackberry is taking market share from other providers? Where in the world did you get that? The only "facts" that I've seen suggest the opposite
    mikeo007 likes this.
    02-22-13 05:25 AM
  20. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    LOL! OF COURSE it's my opinion!! That's why I wrote it. "Bad" is always an opinion! I thought it was terrible, and I've described it before. I'd say the same thing if they paraded out Lebron James in a suit. I'll reiterate a bit, frankly, I am amazed in this day and age that we still do ridiculous celeb endorsements....it's truly a tactic aimed at the weak-minded. However, if you are going to do it, I can't think of a more condescending and silly way to do it than to have this silly subtext of her being a "director"...and of her adding input to the platform.....it's no better than saying lebron James is our new CFO. Finally, my belief is that, if you are going to rely on a tactic like this, then I'd pick some teen bopper star. Justin Bieber or something....(yes, I realize he's out of there price range). why? Well....teens may be more influence this way....there WILL be preteens who will buy a BB only because Bieber has one. This is a great target audience for them to, as they don't have negative conceptions of BB. What I think went wrong is that they are confused, and sometimes try to tell themselves they are aiming at "professionals", and thus they think Keys is a better fit. Well...I'd say professionals...any "grown-ups", or even mature kids won't give a nut what Keys is paid to say about cellphones. Do you? Of course not. THAT is why I think it a waste of resources as I said. The fact that it backfired with the bad press, was not predictable, and I don't hold that against them.
    There's a big difference between saying "I don't like that they picked Alicia Keys" and "they made a bad decision". The second statement requires some proof. And Bieber would have been a horrible choice, because there are a great many people who harbor an active dislike for him. Alicia Keys is a respected artist and a generally likeable person. And while you may dismiss this whole notion of having her given the title of "Creative Director", at least acknowledge that with the Keep Moving projects that BB is actually attempting to DO something creative.



    C'mon...you're smarter than that I think Thunderbuck. Are you trying to discuss this with ME, or win a rhetoric war? Do you think an online vote (yes...we've all read threads about this lately) is going to impress me? To the contrary, if you believe that to be an indicator even of it's impact, I'd question your judgement. But hey, i didn't object TO a commercial, I thought the commercial itself very very very poor. Again, similar to Keys, it was misconceived, and I am now very worried about the current marketing team. As I posted at the time, (see that thread for more), it was a brand aura commercial...that works for popular, brands simply as a reminder of presence. It does NOT work on a tarnished brand that needs to get info about a new OS out. If you agree with me that the carriers are doing better commercials, then that itself should tell you something. If a carrier, can make a better commercial, just showing, with excitement, the phone bouncing around....then do you really think wasting a big opportunity with a kid with elephant legs was "good"? They'd have been better off using a Rogers or Telus commercial, and just showing that during the superbowl.
    Yes, I'm aware of the pitfalls of online polls. Seeing as there were literally millions of votes cast in this one, though, I felt fairly safe that A) there was little in the way of "CrackBerry effect" and B) the ad actually registered with the audience.

    In many cases, a Super Bowl ad is done for its own sake. It's a statement to the industry to say "we're still here, and we can afford to blow a ton of money on an ad". In many cases the audience is secondary, especially when the product won't be available to many of them for over a month. It's there to plant a seed, and it seems to have been well-received enough to have worked.


    I see it as very bad, and I think a lot of people do, and that's been well discussed both ways. In short, they lose momentum, in perhaps the most crucial market, they run into the other big releases. I'm not sure why you appeal to other lags. First, the fact that otehrs have done it does not make it good...in fact, Lumia is probably the worst thing to cite, since it hardly tore up the market. In any case, I don't think it's ever good, but frankly, Apple and Samsung could do it and it'd be fine. It would produce grumbling from the faithful there, but, when the phone is launched, it would still have the same impact. I could announce the iphone 6 from a bathroom somewhere, and then launch it two months later, and it would still get huge attention, and huge sales. BB can't afford that, and you know it! They need everything they can possibly muster to execute a high-impact launch. How many threads even on CB BEFORE the launch explicitly said that the lag can't be too long.....and a lot of them were thinking 2 weeks!
    I mentioned the other lags because I don't understand why other makes seem to get a pass on this, but we hammer BB for it. There are a lot of benefits that BB, the carriers, and ultimately the US customers get out of this delay. And it will serve as a "second-stage" launch that even users in other countries will pay attention to because presumably we'll see new software announcements. Do we like it? No, but I don't understand why we have to declare that it means the end of the world.

    And I'll ask (again), has it occurred to you that the carriers WANTED the delay so as to see consumer acceptance in other markets?


    Yep I agree. I'm one of them, but there's also no denying it's extremely important to many. It's a huge barrier to entry now, and there is no easy solution to it. Still, I had hoped that - especially given the extra time(!) - that they'd have those key big names in place and ready to go. Admittedly, there is only so much they can do here, but whatever happened...whoever's fault it was...it's a real failure.
    Talk to me AFTER the US launch. How can you declare the software catalog a "failure" when we don't even know what's going to be in it?

    I don't think that's all that happens at all. If the numbers are good, they say it all. All this media conspiracy stuff....it's truly ridiculous. Just a month ago, most were proclaiming the media had turned around, and hailed all the "good" press....i guess the "critics" didn't get their payoffs that month, or they just suddenly decided they love BB, not hate BB, and were, for a few weeks, not out to "get" BB. Look, all people have some bias, but if good numbers are reported, it gets good press....and vice versa. In any case, since they will get the numbers eventually, the only reason not to divulge is because you don't want to people to know the numbers for as long as possible. (my GUESS is that they are really hoping that the new launches will help get the numbers up by then...if not....might as well face the music then, and not now), but I'm GIVING him the benefit of the doubt, and saying IF the numbers are GREAT, and he doesn't say them, it's a HUGE blunder. i honestly do not see that as controversial. If you think the numbers are not so great, THEN you could say "oh...maybe better to hold back...these are so-so".
    You don't see me citing any "media conspiracies". There absolutely ARE writers who have been very negative on BB (John Paczkowski at AllThingsD being one of them). There have been pieces written on BB that seem to have been calculated to assume the very worst interpretation possible. Other times, speculation has been spun out to seemingly-factual inflammatory headlines. Let's not be naive here: there are many analysts who have bets placed on BB's failure. I don't hold that against them, either.

    Part of the problem with releasing numbers now is that there'd be little agreement on exactly what would constitute a "good" number. Virtually anything short of a 10 million blockbuster would likely be laughed at, and the Z10 didn't launch in enough markets to garner those kinds of numbers. I think that we'll see encouraging numbers start to trickle out as the US launches prepare to ramp up.


    I really don't see anything inspired there. Frankly, ANY person on earth, Peewee Herman for example, would come forward and say 'we made some mistakes, and things are rough, but we're starting a new day here!!" There really is no choice. I agree, sales were good given the situation....did RIM do something to spark that? I'm not aware of any big changes made there. Yes, the networks were fairly reliable....but weren't they always? BB10 has been in the works "|forever", they continued this and finished it....that's good. In the meantime, Heins did not supply (still does not supply) any concrete info about playbook, info about services was muddled, info about BES/BIS etc. was so muddled, it caused bad press and controversy! You know this is true. The one thing I thought Heins did well at was firing people! Seriously, I thought they did a good job cost-cutting, and that too was crucial. I don't think BB has done an unusually BAD job, but I think the info flow is middling at best, I think the launch was bungled (and come on people....even those who love BB....2 months ago, is this how you envisioned it? IF you had known then there'd be an anemic launch announcement, 2 months delay in the US, missing apps, no PB info, no numbers admit reports of lackluster sales, I doubt very much anybody reading this would have thought: what a success! Good job!) I realize now, that people feel the need to defend BB and their beliefs, and cling to hope. Sorry. Remember, it's just a phone, and BB is just a huge corporation, and they don't actually know you at all.
    Given the environment they've had to operate in, the outright hostility from most analysts, the indifference from many customers, the overall difficulties they've had to face, I think that BB has done an admirable job just by fielding a viable product. It wouldn't have been hard to just take the company private and sell off the components. I think that in choosing to stay independent and follow their own course--and continuing to make money in the course of doing so--shows a lot of character.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree Thunder. I do appreciate your lengthy and thoughtful response, and there is some common ground.
    And you're entitled to your opinions, of course. Just try to examine whether your positions are based in fact, or your perception.
    02-22-13 10:52 AM
  21. Real Estate Appraiser's Avatar
    "figures are going well" is fairly ambiguous and I don't give it much weight. I think we are going to find that sales were fair to average but not good or great. Things are not going to change over night with one phone for blackberry. It will take a long time for them to be formidable force in North America again. People are warming to blackberry again, but slowly and peoples interest in the iphone is starting to wane. BB10 is an excellent platform and it will be a monster once it matures and gets all the key apps. Wait and see.
    02-22-13 11:00 AM
  22. lorax1284's Avatar
    It's a fact that Blackberry is taking market share from other providers? Where in the world did you get that? The only "facts" that I've seen suggest the opposite
    It has been widely reported that in Canada, 50% of those picking up Z10s were "deactivating" Android and iOS devices. Call it pent up demand or whatever you like, but the fact remains: someone who has service from a carrier, the carrier knows what platform they use, and when they move their sim from one device to another, or migrate their phone number from one SIM to another, the company knows what they came from and that they went to a BB10 device.

    It's a cinch for the carriers to know this. The fact that the next Android superphone is faster, higher res, bigger screen is no surprise to anyone, and the only thing I've heard about the HTC One is that is has some new proprietary software on it that is going to give it some kind of competitive advantage over Samsung, which will have it's own proprietary software on it that will supposedly give it some competitive advantage over HTC, then the next Nexus device will come out that DOESN'T have any proprietary software on it that's supposed to be its competitive advantage over Samsung and HTC.

    Confused? You shouldn't be. All this means is "different strokes for different folks". Sure, if you like Android, now you have to stop and think about which UX layer on top of android you want, or you don't want. It's going to get lots worse until the fringe players fall by the wayside. And just wait 'til Motorola actually gets into the swing. You'll have a whole line of "Nexus" devices by Motorola and then Moto Blur on top of others? Ugh, it smacks of gimmickry. Oh, and did you know Samsung has their own App store, too? What the heck is the point, aside from diverting money from Google's store? It's just less than Google Play, and the money goes to Samsung instead of Google? It is, in a word, ********.

    ...or you can get BB10 and have a great phone with a mobile OS that isn't behemoth-y underneath, and top-heavy with custom UI layers. There will be upmarket BB10 , down-market BB10, hopefully a new BB10 tablet, and (fingers crossed) a slider and a phablet... but they'll all share the same GREAT OOTB multi-tasking.

    It's the same "Android will win" assumptions over and over again. The Android architecture can't be what BB10 can be. BB10 can be all that Android can be and more. It's just a matter of whether or not BB10 will make the kind of inroads into "mobile computing" that Android technically will find difficult (or, I hope that eventually people will learn that giving Google free product i.e. YOUR PERSONAL PROFILE to sell for a profit without giving YOU a cut is being scammed and exploited. Personally, I avoid being scammed and exploited on principle, no matter what the 'apparent' benefits to me are.
    Thunderbuck and Dapper37 like this.
    02-22-13 02:50 PM
  23. THBW's Avatar
    This part is interesting since there is a lot of other information that backs up his channel checks as plausible. Granted, these channel checks are very limited by geography and number, so they may not be representative, but the other information does not contradict it at least.

    1. UK will sell around 30 million smartphones in 2013.

    2. There are around 3000-4000 stores (counting Carphone Warehouse, Phones 4 U, EE, Vodafone, and the other places mentioned for the UK launch).

    3. Each store will therefore sell around 23 smartphones per day on average.

    4. Kantar Worldpanel had around a 35% share for iPhone in the UK = 8 iPhones per store per day - which is close to the 5-6 per day he mentioned, plus he checked a smaller than average store.

    5. The Z10 is listed as the 5th best selling smartphone at Carphone Warehouse and Phones 4 U, and is #4 on Uswitch's top 10 phones. This seems to match with the note that the Z10 is selling well, but not as well as the iPhone or Galaxy S III.

    6. Some estimates mentioned that the iPhone was still selling as many as 40% 4S's still, so the 4S's share could be as high as 14%. The Z10 is somewhere less than that.

    7. If you assume that the iPhone is selling about 3:1 to the Z10, then the Z10's share would be 11-12%. This equals about 275k-300k units per month. Could be off obviously, but probably no worse than any of the other channel checks out there.
    Thanks you for a thoughtfull and rationale argument. Interesting that your analysis on British sales come out with a number of around 375K. I did a similar analysis from a Canadian perspective and came out with a minimum value of 125-150 K for BB sales. When you factor the time launch differential and market size, the numbers come out relative close to one another. So total sales of 500K seems rather reasonable if not conservative to me. We still haven't factored in the middle east, European countries, SA and the Asian countries.

    I should point out that the Canaccord number is ridiculously low. If you go through all the calculations carefully, this dude would have to argue that the average Canadian store is only selling one Z10 every 1.5 days. This is obviously wrong and nowhere close to reality. So what is up. We'll I think it is pretty simple. Canaccord has been playing the Apple long/RIM short game for a long time and they seem to have been burned. I have a relative who works for them and knows the analyst. He informed me that his channel checks are poor and consist of phoning approximately 5 stores in England and talking to whomever answers the phone. Not the brightest bulb on the block. This sort of sloppiness got him into trouble when he proclaimed that the Z10 wasn't selling out in the majority of english stores. This was rapidly debunked when a product survey showed 60 percent to of stores sold out in the first day. The good news is the guy stayed clear of making similar claims in Canada where every Tom, **** and Harry knows that the Z10 is almost impossible to get at the retail level.

    Why makes Peter Misek's numbers more credible is that He does channel checks on over 100 stores and has an English employee on the ground doing background work. I have more trust in Misek's approach than the Canaccord fly by your seat of your pants methodology.
    02-22-13 04:13 PM
  24. THBW's Avatar
    So wait...

    When Misek says good thing about BlackBerry, people trust him?
    But when he says bad things about BlackBerry, he's told to sod off?

    Yeah, best to just ignore Misek entirely. His accuracy track record on ALL things he talks about is enough to not even give a damn.
    Sorry Bla1ze but I'm going to call you out on this one. Peter Misek is not some mid grade analyst from a junior Canadian outfit with no tech experience. He does proper and extensive channel checks so much so that they have people on the ground in the countries they survey. See my previous post. So Peter's analysis does give us a reasonable assessment of what is happening now in various countries. My concern with Peter and other analysts is when they prognosticate on nothing. That bothers me and he was appropriately called out.
    Thunderbuck likes this.
    02-22-13 04:36 PM
  25. mikeo007's Avatar
    Yes, I'm aware of the pitfalls of online polls. Seeing as there were literally millions of votes cast in this one, though, I felt fairly safe that A) there was little in the way of "CrackBerry effect" and B) the ad actually registered with the audience.
    Come on TB...you've spent enough time around here, you know very well how strong the crackberry effect can be. Look at some of the other online polls that have been swayed to ridiculous margins by barely-organized crackberry groups. Heck, a single small group of people could easily sway these poll results. The superbowl poll, along with every other poll I see posted in a forum with the words "GO VOTE NOW" are worth almost nothing in terms of quality data. In fact, I'd argue that the only thing these polls show is which group of fanatics will go the farthest to prove their undying devotion to their phone
    02-22-13 04:57 PM
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