02-23-13 06:37 PM
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  1. silversun10's Avatar
    Misek's target is: "The firm maintained a Buy rating and price target of $19.50 on BBRY."
    That is about $10 more than fe Canaccord, so they really do have a different outlook on Blackberry..............
    02-20-13 05:32 PM
  2. VeGiTo's Avatar
    Or they're talking about different things. I find it incredibly amusing that people are declaring success or failure without knowing the sales rates vs. the forecasted sales rate.

    For example, suppose Thorsten had forecasted first day sales of 50,000 units, and first quarter sales of 1.5 million. Is he lying if the first day sales are 75,000 but then sales dry up and he ends the quarter at 1.25 million? What if he exceeds his quarterly forecast and sells 1.65, but the street estimate was 2.0 million. Is it a success or failure? What if the 50,000 first day sales are much more than the 9900 which had - say 20,000 first day sales?
    You misread again. Thorsten said sales were 50%+ better than the RECORD HIGH for previous BB launches. Not forecast.
    fedakd likes this.
    02-20-13 06:13 PM
  3. abwan11's Avatar
    It's going to be tough to refute what he is saying, he has been following this story for quite some time and has a lot of credibility when it comes to blackberry, I believe he is a five star analyst on blackberry. I'm happy he's turned his view on the company, and is facing off against other analyst views. Yes, I've called him a good for nothing, cheap son of ......but hey that was then....and this is now.
    Last edited by abwan11; 02-20-13 at 06:48 PM.
    s0be likes this.
    02-20-13 06:34 PM
  4. Masahiro's Avatar
    It's going to be tough to refute what he is saying, he has been following this story for quite some time and has a lot of credibility when it comes to blackberry, I believe he is a five star analyst on blackberry.
    A lot of credibility? He wrongfully predicted a "delayed" March release for the phone, and considered BB10 "DOA" until his firm actually played with the devices for a month. I simply don't believe a thing this guy says anymore, regardless of whether it's positive or negative for BlackBerry. While most analysts are full of crap, this guy takes the cake.
    02-20-13 07:58 PM
  5. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    You misread again. Thorsten said sales were 50%+ better than the RECORD HIGH for previous BB launches. Not forecast.
    No. You're missing the point I'm making.


    All I'm saying is that people are decreeing success or failure without all the pieces. That's it. That's all. Nothing more. And I gave an example with made up numbers to illustrate.
    Bobcat665 likes this.
    02-20-13 08:50 PM
  6. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    No. Not only did he say it was better than expected, he actually said it was better than any previous BlackBerry device launch EVER. The Z10 launch was 50% better than previous record in Canada, and 200% (3x) better than previous BlackBerry record in UK. So if you pull some historic numbers and do some math, there is some basis there. And the bearish analysts are either wrong, or Thorsten was blatantly lying. I'm betting my left nut that he was not lying.
    Again, that's not the point I'm making.
    02-20-13 08:53 PM
  7. randall2580's Avatar
    Went to rogers today to get a magnetic flip case, their Z10 accessory section was wiped, and it was quite a large section. This can only mean they are selling a decent amount of z10's
    Or their sales of accessories exceeded their expectations
    Bugmapper likes this.
    02-20-13 09:37 PM
  8. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    Blackberry will strongly exceed Wall street expectations when number are out .. and going forward for the remainder of 2013 … bb 10 is in great demand everywhere!
    02-20-13 09:51 PM
  9. richardat's Avatar
    The glass really is half empty with you, isn't it Richard?

    As i've said before, the 'breakeven' flying around is some non-BlackBerry person's guess. Just as this is a guess, just as the other analysts are guessing.

    Only the results will really tell.
    You just repeated what I said. You were wrong, it is YOU who are glass half empty, because if you reread my post you'll see I didn't editorialize at all. I simply said:

    1.the short term estimates are now quite close (as opposed to the previous 1.7mil est.)
    2.the estimate differ in the longer term
    3.the higher estimate will meet what "others are now estimating" as break even, the lower won't even be close

    Pretty matter-of-fact. Any impression you have of a glass half empty comes from....YOU! ;-)
    02-20-13 09:58 PM
  10. BBNation's Avatar
    02-20-13 10:42 PM
  11. Dapper37's Avatar
    The lines today in SA were impressive to say the least!
    02-21-13 01:18 AM
  12. Emu the Foo's Avatar
    Yay. I hope aziz ansari goes back to using bb again
    02-21-13 01:21 AM
  13. Emu the Foo's Avatar
    The lines today in SA were impressive to say the least!
    What exactly where these lines for??? Oh wait the z10 just came out in Johannesburg correct?
    02-21-13 01:23 AM
  14. Dapper37's Avatar
    What exactly where these lines for??? Oh wait the z10 just came out in Johannesburg correct?
    Correct.
    02-21-13 01:25 AM
  15. Zarpan's Avatar
    I believe that #3 is incorrect since the break even number of 18 million per year being thrown about is based on an analyst who figured a $375 ASP with 30% margins for BB10.

    That ASP estimate came from before the phones were launched and pricing was announced. Now that we have real pricing numbers, it is obvious that $375 is way too low.

    Hence, based on a more accurate ASP estimate, the low end estimates of 1-1.5 million sales per quarter will still fall far short of breakeven. So that part is correct. However, the higher estimate of 4 million BB10s per quarter will result in an annual EPS of about $2/share. Breakeven is probably around 2.5-3 million BB10s per quarter.



    You just repeated what I said. You were wrong, it is YOU who are glass half empty, because if you reread my post you'll see I didn't editorialize at all. I simply said:

    1.the short term estimates are now quite close (as opposed to the previous 1.7mil est.)
    2.the estimate differ in the longer term
    3.the higher estimate will meet what "others are now estimating" as break even, the lower won't even be close

    Pretty matter-of-fact. Any impression you have of a glass half empty comes from....YOU! ;-)
    02-21-13 01:50 AM
  16. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    I don't doubt for a minute that Z10 is doing very well ... the fact that its still hard to get one in the countries it has launched says enough .. and those that have one are very very pleased!....
    02-21-13 03:31 AM
  17. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    You just repeated what I said. You were wrong, it is YOU who are glass half empty, because if you reread my post you'll see I didn't editorialize at all.
    I'm commenting in general. You are correct ... it comes from looking at your posts. You seem predisposed to hone in on negativity and dismiss positivity. Nothing wrong with it. Just an observation. You certainly aren't alone, nor is it wrong to be skeptical at times.
    02-21-13 06:33 AM
  18. revtech's Avatar
    Hmm I guess groundhog day is on February 20 this year. The slimy weasel has peeked his head out of his den of lies and made a statement. Not putting much weight into it whether good or bad
    Guess he got all the shorts he needed, now its time to engage reverse thrust and bring 'em back up.
    02-21-13 08:16 AM
  19. Claudio Sanchez1's Avatar
    The problem is that 500,000 units sold over a quarter means they are bleeding cash and will go bankrupt. This is not a good number.
    02-21-13 08:20 AM
  20. TomJasper's Avatar
    Forget Misek or any other ANALyst, Z10 selling very well and BBRY being given away at present prices.

    Large % of former Apple/Droid users migrating to Z10, that trend means gaining market share and should be the biggest focus going forward, so many ANALysts missing that CRUCIAL indicator,pity.
    bigbbrybeliever likes this.
    02-21-13 08:21 AM
  21. zander2652's Avatar
    http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1210621


    Major UK Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone5, Black Market Thriving
    Feb 21, 2013 | by Michael Collins | about: BBRY
    Certain reports by US analysts paint a deceiving and self-serving picture of bleak sales for BlackBerry (BBRY) Z10 in the UK. I doubt said analysts have been walking around in London and talking to branch managers of the largest UK retailers to do their channel checks. Whether using Carphone Warehouse's online inventory tool or actually calling stores, I'm not quite sure how they get these channel checks done, but one thing I can assure you is that the process needs to be done in person and preferably not by a guy in a suit with a US accent. Whenever I have called stores I have often gotten lukewarm response as these kids are busy and they don't want to be answering surveys for people who are not going to be buying phones.

    Carphone Warehouse:

    No longer sells the Z10 without contract online
    Sim-free sales are only in stores and this depends each store's inventory
    Raised the price of the BOTH Z10s from 479 to 529 GBP (iPhone5 (AAPL) for 499)
    Phones4u

    No longer sells the Z10 without contract online
    Sim-free sales are only in stores and this depends on each store's inventory
    Raised the price of the black Z10 from 479 to 540 GBP
    When was the last time the price of a phone was raised post-launch, and even more so, that phone was a BlackBerry?

    {continued at link above}
    Last edited by Michelle Haag; 03-05-13 at 10:49 PM. Reason: notice from Seeking Alpha
    cman5, Zarpan, xpowers and 1 others like this.
    02-21-13 09:59 AM
  22. houshinto#IM's Avatar
    Comments in the linked story are hilarious if not so irrational. Comparing BB to the Taliban?!? LMAO!
    02-21-13 10:39 AM
  23. currentodysseys's Avatar
    The other day I was flying through spain and I saw good amount of accessories for z10 event though the phone was not on sale yet not even under contract (sim free will definitely come much later). That for me is an indicator, since before you could not find easily accessories for bb phones that were in circulation. I believe that BB is taking on to more serious and complete launch strategies. Also many big accessories firms like case-mate etc are running series on the z10. They must also have some data in relation.

    Analysing the numbers in forums and from outsider's perspective only throws more wood in the speculation fire launched. We are a few weeks after initial launch and impressions give a good sensation (yesterday my carrier's sales person -totally anti-bb, LOVED the z10 when i went in for my new sim card by the way).

    We will only know when bb releases numbers and compare them to their real benchmarks. All the rest is speculation and "early-to-tell guesses" if not an insider with real data imho.
    02-21-13 10:42 AM
  24. sugbo's Avatar
    Yeah I think that Misek guy could be right. Ordered a Z10 here in the Netherlands. First delivery date was Feb. 25, then March 5 and now posponed until end of March. Thats why I cant really believe sales volumes are light. Guess I'll have to be patient again.
    02-21-13 10:59 AM
  25. Mylegacy's Avatar
    Thorsten says Z10 sales are higher than any other BB (RIM) launch - OK - back in the day when Rim's share were to the moon and their phones were selling like pickles in a maternity ward they MUST have had some GREAT first day sales on new models...anyone know how to find out what those sales were? A quick calculation will give us an idea of where Thorsten says we are. By this Q's sales reports due in late March we'll know for sure were we are.

    IF - India and France, Germany etal are actually selling, and there is a week of sales from those countries to be counted as well as what has happened in Canada, the UAE and the UK - I think projected sales of "300,000 to 500,000" are almost laughably low.

    Time will tell - it always does, n'est pas?
    02-21-13 11:18 AM
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