[sandman10]

going well!

AAPL: Jefferies Sees iPhone, Samsung Pause; BBRY Z10 Sales ‘Going Well’ - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

[ibpluto]

Nice........

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

500,000 for Q1 seems good but even with the Q10 and the USA market coming on stream , 4 M sales in Q2 seems very optimistic. The comparison is made with the Lumia but they had a great Christmas and more Lumia models. ( If I remember the 920 was in around 2.5 mill) The Q10 would really have to sell well for BB10 to reach the 4 mill mark in Q2.

[adjdudley21]

Im not going to hold my breath thats for sure, I will wait for A) the US to sell this phone, B) Blackberry to release numbers... until these two things happen, I will not believe any article, positive or negative.... Unless its from our fearless leader Kevin or his "band of thieves." hahaah

[richardat]

The estimates for Feb are actually reasonably similar 300,000-500,000. Where they start to diverge much more is in subsequent quarters where Misek thinks they could get 5mil, and others are now estimating as low as 1-1.5 mil. If they get 5mil, they could exceed the break-even point....but if they get 1.5......

[randall2580]

**** yeah we love Misek #1984

[Im Mo Green]

From the article :

"but reiterate that it is not just about the phone. We continue to see software opportunities in mobile device management and BYOD to drive value"

This is where blackberry can win market share and drive higher revenues and fat margins over the next 12-24 months. This is the path to great success for blackberry!!!! Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds, starting with market share gain in the enterprise with BYOD management. Hopefully some color on this in the coming conference calls.

[Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes]

Hmm I guess groundhog day is on February 20 this year. The slimy weasel has peeked his head out of his den of lies and made a statement. Not putting much weight into it whether good or bad

[marlowe9810]

From the article :

"but reiterate that it is not just about the phone. We continue to see software opportunities in mobile device management and BYOD to drive value"

This is where blackberry can win market share and drive higher revenues and fat margins over the next 12-24 months. This is the path to great success for blackberry!!!! Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds, starting with market share gain in the enterprise with BYOD management. Hopefully some color on this in the coming conference calls.

I saw an interview on Bloomberg. He thinks the story on BB is not just on the handsets
Misek's view is that the MDM is where the real opportunities lie for Blackberry. He says that based on the research he found BB's MDM solution to be the most flexible and cheaper. He has polled CIO's from the fortune 500 and they are very much enthusiastic about BB's MDM solution. Misek says revenue potential is 10 billion from MDM.

[EchoTango]

I'm going to have to say that if BBerry has sold 500k Z10's then they can only declare a moral victory and not the runaway product success we had all hoped for. My thinking all along is that BBerry should command one-third of the smartphone marketshare and that's about 120 Million units per quarter thereabouts. This means a potential volume for BBerry of 40 Million devices a quarter. Put this into perspective of the 300K-500k unit sales street estimates and you get the sense of the empty win that truly would be if they achieved those numbers.

I'm thinking they will report 1.3 to 1.5 million Z10's plus hopefully a whole bunch more of BB7 devices to make it a decent quarter. Even at these relatively optimistic numbers, you still get the sense that the Z10 has not been the runaway hit we were all hoping for but only a decent start to what is hopefully a steady quarter-by-quarter marketshare gain.

[Im Mo Green]

I'm going to have to say that if BBerry has sold 500k Z10's then they can only declare a moral victory and not the runaway product success we had all hoped for. My thinking all along is that BBerry should command one-third of the smartphone marketshare and that's about 120 Million units per quarter thereabouts. This means a potential volume for BBerry of 40 Million devices a quarter. Put this into perspective of the 300K-500k unit sales street estimates and you get the sense of the empty win that truly would be if they achieved those numbers.

I'm thinking they will report 1.3 to 1.5 million Z10's plus hopefully a whole bunch more of BB7 devices to make it a decent quarter. Even at these relatively optimistic numbers, you still get the sense that the Z10 has not been the runaway hit we were all hoping for but only a decent start to what is hopefully a steady quarter-by-quarter marketshare gain.

What you are hoping for BB and what I believe is safe to say others are hoping for are drastically different. Your numbers are not sensible in the least.

[adrenaline_x]

on a side note.. I had ordered 4 More z10 on the 13th to seed to our company users before a bigger role out. There were 2300 orders in front of us according to the online reservation system as of yesterday and it appears they finally are ready to ship (but havent yet). The queue in front of our order was not moving until today. So either the corporate side of rogers is experiencing high demands for the devices or Blackberry didn't provide enough stock. The 2 white z10s we orderat the same time only showed 160 orders in front of them and i just received them today as they shipped yesterday after slowly moving up the queue.

It could me nothing at all.. But after the intial rush on the phones, i was shocked there was still a delay 15 days after i preordered our initial 2 test units which were 1100 in the queue after ordering them within 60 minutes of the portal opening after the launch.

[tiziano27]

Misek said sales were "hundreds of thousands" just the first day in UK. Now his "hundreds of thousands" are globally in February??!!
For Misek now the phones aren't important, the hot product is the server?
This is starting to sound really bad.

[Zarpan]

Misek said sales were "hundreds of thousands" just the first day in UK. Now his "hundreds of thousands" are globally in February??!!
For Misek now the phones aren't important, the hot product is the server?
This is starting to sound really bad.

I believe Misek's original talk of "hundreds of thousands" referred to UK sell-in, not sell-through. Typical channel inventories for smartphones are between 3-6 weeks, so they'd be planning for that amount to sell in 3-6 weeks. If anyone suggested that there were "hundreds of thousands" of end-user sales on the first day, it was probably due to a misreading of the terminology.

[playbookster]

500,000 for Q1 seems good but even with the Q10 and the USA market coming on stream , 4 M sales in Q2 seems very optimistic. The comparison is made with the Lumia but they had a great Christmas and more Lumia models. ( If I remember the 920 was in around 2.5 mill) The Q10 would really have to sell well for BB10 to reach the 4 mill mark in Q2.

the q10 will benefit from pent up enterprise demand and those loyal to keyboards. Z10 is more of a consumer phone.

[RubberChicken76]

The estimates for Feb are actually reasonably similar 300,000-500,000. Where they start to diverge much more is in subsequent quarters where Misek thinks they could get 5mil, and others are now estimating as low as 1-1.5 mil. If they get 5mil, they could exceed the break-even point....but if they get 1.5......

The glass really is half empty with you, isn't it Richard?

As i've said before, the 'breakeven' flying around is some non-BlackBerry person's guess. Just as this is a guess, just as the other analysts are guessing.

Only the results will really tell.

[sleepngbear]

Meanwhile, other sources are saying that Z10 sales are lighter than expected. But Thor says it's been the best launch of any new BlackBerry device. I don't know who to believe. But all these conflicting reports are giving me an abdominal aneurysm.

[RubberChicken76]

Meanwhile, other sources are saying that Z10 sales are lighter than expected. But Thor says it's been the best launch of any new BlackBerry device. I don't know who to believe. But all these conflicting reports are giving me an abdominal aneurysm.

Expected compared to what?

Honestly guys, the only numbers that matter are the ones we aren't going to easily get: the performance of the product relative to what BlackBerry had in their forecast budget for the product. If the run rate, ship rate and ASP hold up or outperform the plans BlackBerry set, they'll be fine. If it does not, expect more headcount reductions.

When they announce their Q4 results, we'll get a small indication. When we get their Q1, we'll get a better indication.

[playbookster]

Went to rogers today to get a magnetic flip case, their Z10 accessory section was wiped, and it was quite a large section. This can only mean they are selling a decent amount of z10's

[bluetroll]

geez... why read so deep into these... just enjoy the Z10 and be done with it.

you guys are so sensitive. The Z10 is a wonderful device... it will sell.

[VeGiTo]

Expected compared to what?

Honestly guys, the only numbers that matter are the ones we aren't going to easily get: the performance of the product relative to what BlackBerry had in their forecast budget for the product. If the run rate, ship rate and ASP hold up or outperform the plans BlackBerry set, they'll be fine. If it does not, expect more headcount reductions.

When they announce their Q4 results, we'll get a small indication. When we get their Q1, we'll get a better indication.

No. Not only did he say it was better than expected, he actually said it was better than any previous BlackBerry device launch EVER. The Z10 launch was 50% better than previous record in Canada, and 200% (3x) better than previous BlackBerry record in UK. So if you pull some historic numbers and do some math, there is some basis there. And the bearish analysts are either wrong, or Thorsten was blatantly lying. I'm betting my left nut that he was not lying.

[GTiLeo]

500,000 for Q1 seems good but even with the Q10 and the USA market coming on stream , 4 M sales in Q2 seems very optimistic. The comparison is made with the Lumia but they had a great Christmas and more Lumia models. ( If I remember the 920 was in around 2.5 mill) The Q10 would really have to sell well for BB10 to reach the 4 mill mark in Q2.

alot of peopel are waiting for the Q10 those that have left BB and the dislike for the whole full touch experiense, i do believe the market for the Q10 is bigger then what alot of people believe

[anon(3310921)]

No. Not only did he say it was better than expected, he actually said it was better than any previous BlackBerry device launch EVER. The Z10 launch was 50% better than previous record in Canada, and 200% (3x) better than previous BlackBerry record in UK. So if you pull some historic numbers and do some math, there is some basis there. And the bearish analysts are either wrong, or Thorsten was blatantly lying. I'm betting my left nut that he was not lying.

LOL. . .I'd bet the farm before my left nut. . .LOL but also. . .any body just happen to recall previous launch sale numbers of Blackberry in the UK and Canada? LOL. . .

[RubberChicken76]

My thinking all along is that BBerry should command one-third of the smartphone marketshare and that's about 120 Million units per quarter thereabouts. This means a potential volume for BBerry of 40 Million devices a quarter. Put this into perspective of the 300K-500k unit sales street estimates and you get the sense of the empty win that truly would be if they achieved those numbers.

The only success metric that matters for BlackBerry is that they sell phones, turn a profit, and bring shareholder value ... leading to more phones. They could get 5 million, forty million or 500 million but all these things are meaningless if they are unable to do the first several things.

[RubberChicken76]

No. Not only did he say it was better than expected, he actually said it was better than any previous BlackBerry device launch EVER. The Z10 launch was 50% better than previous record in Canada, and 200% (3x) better than previous BlackBerry record in UK. So if you pull some historic numbers and do some math, there is some basis there. And the bearish analysts are either wrong, or Thorsten was blatantly lying. I'm betting my left nut that he was not lying.

Or they're talking about different things. I find it incredibly amusing that people are declaring success or failure without knowing the sales rates vs. the forecasted sales rate.

For example, suppose Thorsten had forecasted first day sales of 50,000 units, and first quarter sales of 1.5 million. Is he lying if the first day sales are 75,000 but then sales dry up and he ends the quarter at 1.25 million? What if he exceeds his quarterly forecast and sells 1.65, but the street estimate was 2.0 million. Is it a success or failure? What if the 50,000 first day sales are much more than the 9900 which had - say 20,000 first day sales?