[UrbanGlowCam]

Recently, I decided to use previous records to gain a better insight on some releases soon.
This should give perspective on how RIM spaces their announcements with actual releases.

Blackberry 8320
Officially Announced: 09/18/07
T-Mobile: 09/24/07

Blackberry 8530
Officially Announced: 11/06/09
Verizon: 11/20/09

Blackberry 9000
Officially Announced: 05/12/08
AT&T: 11/04/08

Blackberry 9100
Officially Announced: 04/26/10
AT&T: 10/17/10

Blackberry 9300
Officially Announced: 08/05/10
T-Mobile: 09/08/10

Blackberry 9530
Officially Announced: 08/07/08
Verizon: 11/21/08

Blackberry 9550
Officially Announced: 10/26/09
Verizon: 10/28/09

Blackberry 9630
Officially Announced: 06/15/09
Verizon/Sprint: 07/12/09

Blackberry 9650
Officially Announced: 04/27/10
Sprint: 05/23/10

Blackberry 9670
Officially Announced: 10/18/10
Sprint: 10/31/10

Blackberry 9700
Officially Announced: 10/21/09
AT&T: 11/22/09
Rogers: 11/03/09
Vodafone: 11/09/09

Blackberry 9780
Officially Announced: 10/28/10
T-Mobile: 11/17/10
Rogers: 11/05/10

Blackberry 9800
Officially Announced: 08/3/10
AT&T: 08/12/10
Rogers: 09/24/10
Vodafone: 10/01/10

Blackberry 9900
Officially Announced: 05/02/11
?????????????

Please feel free to make suggestions or corrections as you fit.

Edit:

6/19/11
-Added Rogers/Vodafone dates

6/18/11
-Added 8320
-Added 9700/9780 T-Mobile dates
-Removed personal speculation

6/2/11
-Added 8520
-Fixed missing 9300 release date
-Fixed 9530 release date

[Dapper37]

Nice job! Thanks.. fingers crossed!!

[Snipperdo17]

I would love for this phone to follow the trend that release shortly after the announcement, but I just don't think it will. CB Kevin gets more alone time and answers from RIM than anyone on here (that is allowed to talk about most of it anyways) and he truly believes it will be August. We will see!

[UrbanGlowCam]

I would love for this phone to follow the trend that release shortly after the announcement, but I just don't think it will. CB Kevin gets more alone time and answers from RIM than anyone on here (that is allowed to talk about most of it anyways) and he truly believes it will be August. We will see!

No offense to Kevin but he has been wrong in the past. I remember him feeling confident the Playbook would be released or get a marketing push during the superbowl but it didn't happen. In his defense, it may have been in consideration or delayed though so we'll never know.

My point is he knows about as much as we do on a lot of these things, hence his excitement when he hears official announcements haha. He definitely has exclusive knowledge on some things though...that's why he's Crackberry Kevin. But I think his assumption of August might just be an educated guess. He may end up being right but I have a feeling it will be sooner based on some of the things I have listed.

I think Kevin is expecting the worst but hoping for the best here for his own defense! But that's just me....

[aRch-0n]

So looking at the things can we expect a July Worldwide release ?

[Rello]

jesus i hope its not August. i would hope RIM wouldnt go a full 8 months without releasing a new device. if thats the case u (almost) might as well wait for the qnx devices

[greggebhardt]

August or September

[Blacklac]

Or you could all just look at the carrier roadmaps that have already been announced and see the real dates.

[The_Engine]

Nice work Cameron.

It would be interesting to note what version of the OS they launched with as well. That may probably be a better indicator. If memory serves...OS 5 started at 5.0.0.32x with the S1 and then S2 shortly there after. OS 6 launched on the Torch at 6.0.0.32x as well, correct? We are seeing leaks of BB7 in the low 100's. So I am thinking it is in carrier testing, hence the leaks, and probably a month or 2 away. I am just going off what you can estimate to be the time needed to get their historical sweet spot of 300 + builds.

Of course 4.6 and 4.7 launched at lower numbers, but not sure those were new OS's (not really). Also we have no idea if BB7 will be more stable faster because it's really the third iteration of OS 5. I mean 5 wasn't solid until like 800+ builds, but 6 is pretty good in the 500-600 range, right? So maybe bb7 will get carrier approval in the 200's and be nice and stable by 400.

Who knows!

[The_Engine]

And @Rello - Love the signature! Whoever said that was dead on!

[CranBerry413]

I must agree, this is Great Deductive work. I can only hope that the Carriers move quickly with this Phone.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[howarmat]

Nice work Cameron.

It would be interesting to note what version of the OS they launched with as well. That may probably be a better indicator. If memory serves...OS 5 started at 5.0.0.32x with the S1 and then S2 shortly there after. OS 6 launched on the Torch at 6.0.0.32x as well, correct? We are seeing leaks of BB7 in the low 100's. So I am thinking it is in carrier testing, hence the leaks, and probably a month or 2 away. I am just going off what you can estimate to be the time needed to get their historical sweet spot of 300 + builds.

Of course 4.6 and 4.7 launched at lower numbers, but not sure those were new OS's (not really). Also we have no idea if BB7 will be more stable faster because it's really the third iteration of OS 5. I mean 5 wasn't solid until like 800+ builds, but 6 is pretty good in the 500-600 range, right? So maybe bb7 will get carrier approval in the 200's and be nice and stable by 400.

Who knows!

this is something i have always wondered. its easy to see that the early builds are still buggy so why keep releasing buggy phones into the market. Hold onto them for an extra month and then release a much more solid phone. Now i know they DO need to release something soon too but they only can blame themselves for being so damn slow to adjust.

[LikeWebOS]

Awesome stuff, one can only hope...and be patient.

[lnichols]

this is something i have always wondered. its easy to see that the early builds are still buggy so why keep releasing buggy phones into the market. Hold onto them for an extra month and then release a much more solid phone. Now i know they DO need to release something soon too but they only can blame themselves for being so damn slow to adjust.

Unfortunately bugs sometimes don't show themselves until you have devices in production and fielded. Sometimes you see a bug (like the Sprint Tour bug where it wouldn't let you click on a link in the browser sometimes without moving the selector to a specific spot) and wonder how the heck it didn't get caught. I'm hopeful that now that the entire line, both GSM and CDMA, will be running the same SoC from Qualcomm that RIM will be able to manage OS changes, updates and bugs more efficiently.

[howarmat]

true it does take real world testing to see some bugs appear, but in the past RIM is VERY slow in correcting many of them

[The_Engine]

this is something i have always wondered. its easy to see that the early builds are still buggy so why keep releasing buggy phones into the market. Hold onto them for an extra month and then release a much more solid phone. Now i know they DO need to release something soon too but they only can blame themselves for being so damn slow to adjust.

I totally Agree. Look at the Xoom and PlayBook. Everyone is so worried about the iPad2 launching so that they Rush them and end up delivering a half baked product. Both products are knocked because they aren't ready yet, and also don't have all versions available (WiFi/3g). Where as if they waited another month or three and launched a complete product, in all varieties, they may have sold a lot more.

In this case, with new RIM devices there is not as specific of a competitive launch. I wouldn't even sweat the iPhone 5 because your just not competing with that. But if BB7 comes out half baked, RIM is screwed. They need these to launch clean and nice. If Kevin's Theory about being compatible with QNX is true then RIM would actually be back in the ring. But another OS and Device launch like the Torch and they are tits up an taking on water.

(I know they are financially strong, and even a bad BB7 Launch wont kill them. I just like saying Tits up and taking on water)

[The_Engine]

true it does take real world testing to see some bugs appear, but in the past RIM is VERY slow in correcting many of them

Because their Software teams all work is separate silos and they don't have someone working to integrate the code streams together. So they just collect up the latest and greatest from all teams, compile and through over the fence. So once the merge all that code, one teams modifications of a file or set of code, breaks another teams usage of it. Pretty common for large development efforts to see this sort of thing. NOT COMMON FOR IT TO LEAVE THE DEV SHOP THAT WAY.

I think they loose a lot of time fighting code integration issues.

[aerosnout]

Thanks for taking the time to do this, it gives me hope! very cool! Kudos!

[leftypepper716]

Yes I agree, thank you for your reseach and time to post this. I just hope that your theory is right on

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[UrbanGlowCam]

Or you could all just look at the carrier roadmaps that have already been announced and see the real dates.

True, but these are only rough estimates most of the time. Sometimes they aren’t even accurate. For example, the 9300 was slated for Q1 2011 but ended up actually coming early Q4 2010. But you’re right, it is definitely something to look at. Also, we haven’t gotten roadmaps for many of the major carriers. The first major one we got was for the US regional CDMA carriers which are usually months later than Verizon or Sprint.

It would be interesting to note what version of the OS they launched with as well. That may probably be a better indicator. If memory serves...OS 5 started at 5.0.0.32x with the S1 and then S2 shortly there after.

Hmm...I should post what builds each device launched with too....

Like I said in the first post, the Torch launched with 6.0.0.141. AT&T updated to .246 in early October. I was thinking the same thing about your point that depending on which software (OS 5, 6, 7), the handsets sometimes launch with earlier builds. I think OS6 phones launched with lower builds due to the fact that they were mostly upgraded 4.7/5 phones that were already polished.

On the other hand, I assume OS7 handsets had to be reworked as a result of porting the legacy software on all new hardware. The new features that come with this (liquid graphics, ui overlay, JIT, etc.) probably lead to new bugs too. It’s not like we’re just upping the camera specs and ram this time around.

But there was a good point I completely agree with mentioned….

I'm hopeful that now that the entire line, both GSM and CDMA, will be running the same SoC from Qualcomm that RIM will be able to manage OS changes, updates and bugs more efficiently.

This is what I’ve been saying too. I think this could be bigger than some people know. When I hear about BB7 phones not being large upgrades, this is just one of MANY changes that make me think otherwise.


Thanks guys...I hope I'm right too! I'm dieing for a new Berry.

[BBOttawa]

Take it for what it's worth as I obviously can't prove it, but I have a friend who works for RIM (and have played with his Monza full touch screen phone), and he said that RIM only got final hardware for the Bold Touch last week! The "delays" are due to hardware manufacturing issues not software.

So the good news is they have final hardware, the bad news is that August makes sense, though mid-late July is not out of the question. I wouldn't hold my breath for a June launch though.

[southlander]

jesus i hope its not August. i would hope RIM wouldnt go a full 8 months without releasing a new device. if thats the case u (almost) might as well wait for the qnx devices

Except. There is no reason to think the QNX phones will follow closely on the heels of the OS7 ones.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[maevinj]

Take it for what it's worth as I obviously can't prove it, but I have a friend who works for RIM (and have played with his Monza full touch screen phone), and he said that RIM only got final hardware for the Bold Touch last week! The "delays" are due to hardware manufacturing issues not software.

So the good news is they have final hardware, the bad news is that August makes sense, though mid-late July is not out of the question. I wouldn't hold my breath for a June launch though.

He didn't say when the Monza was coming out did he???

[BBOttawa]

"He didn't say when the Monza was coming out did he???"

Apparently they're all coming out around the same time, so if Bold Touch launches early August expect Monza and Curve/Torch upgrades to come out late August at the latest. They're not going to stagger the launches, it'll be an all at once kind of thing, no reason to sit on them when they have such stale hardware on the shelves now.

Of course RIM could surprise us and launch the Bold Touch in late June and get everything else out in July, but that is probably wishful thinking!

[UrbanGlowCam]

Thanks BBOttawa. I hope you're telling us the truth. With that name it sounds like it lol. How was the Monza?

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com