[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

comScore has released their latest subscriber MS numbers here: comScore Reports February 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc

January numbers are here: comScore Reports January 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc

If we compare the numbers we can see the changes for each mobile OS. (Note: Smartphone penetration went up from 55% to 57%)

3 Months Ending January 2013: 1) Android [52.3%] 2) iOS [37.8%] 3) Blackberry [5.9%] 4) Microsoft [3.1%]

3 Months Ending February 2013: 1) Android [51.7%] 2) iOS [38.9%] 3) Blackberry [5.4%] 4) Microsoft [3.2%]

So BB has gone down a further 0.5 points but is still above 5%.

Question: Is this the bottom for BB?

I hope so but I am not sure. These survey numbers may lag a bit from sales so the release of the Z10 may STILL not be reflected when comScore releases their March 2013 numbers. Besides the fact that it will only be a few weeks of sales and some are current BB subscribers (so it won't increase the MS). Also, BB's Q4 results showed a loss of 3M subscribers (Globally and including Z10 where it launched) so the effect of this may not be showing up in comScore's data yet.

However, looking at trends from previous comScore releases I think that it is likely that BB will not fall below a 5% subscriber market share. The Z10 sales should eventually help stop the subscriber bleeding and with the Q10 and future devices I think BB can hopefully start an upward movement. 8% subscriber MS by the end of the year is not a crazy thought if the devices sell well.

Thoughts?

[Shanerredflag]

Hope the slide is done...thanks for posting.

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[theRock1975]

Wow 5% of USA sales were BB7! They can easily make 15% with BB10

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

comScore has released their latest subscriber MS numbers here: comScore Reports February 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc

January numbers are here: comScore Reports January 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc

If we compare the numbers we can see the changes for each mobile OS. (Note: Smartphone penetration went up from 55% to 57%)

3 Months Ending January 2013: 1) Android [52.3%] 2) iOS [37.8%] 3) Blackberry [5.9%] 4) Microsoft [3.1%]

3 Months Ending February 2013: 1) Android [51.7%] 2) iOS [38.9%] 3) Blackberry [5.4%] 4) Microsoft [3.2%]

So BB has gone down a further 0.5 points but is still above 5%.

Question: Is this the bottom for BB?

I hope so but I am not sure. These survey numbers may lag a bit from sales so the release of the Z10 may STILL not be reflected when comScore releases their March 2013 numbers. Besides the fact that it will only be a few weeks of sales and some are current BB subscribers (so it won't increase the MS). Also, BB's Q4 results showed a loss of 3M subscribers (Globally and including Z10 where it launched) so the effect of this may not be showing up in comScore's data yet.

However, looking at trends from previous comScore releases I think that it is likely that BB will not fall below a 5% subscriber market share. The Z10 sales should eventually help stop the subscriber bleeding and with the Q10 and future devices I think BB can hopefully start an upward movement. 8% subscriber MS by the end of the year is not a crazy thought if the devices sell well.

Thoughts?

Yes my thoughts were that BB 7 would drop to 3% but that the Z10 and Q10 sales and Christmas launch of the Aristo will amount to 5% of market share = 8% ... an attainable goal for a new platform. In the horizon is the Iphone 6 and new Samsung models. BB needs business buy ins to reach that goal.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

Wow 5% of USA sales were BB7! They can easily make 15% with BB10

Posted via CB10

No! Not sales. Subscribers. How many people are owners of the phone.

Don't want people to get confused. I was hoping that it was clear what I was talking about.

[theRock1975]

No! Not sales. Subscribers. How many people are owners of the phone.

Don't want people to get confused. I was hoping that it was clear what I was talking about.

Ok thanks for the correction.

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[richardat]

Well they still dropped 12% in the last 3 months, but I think it's reasonable to call this the "bottom" because, frankly, this IS the bottom. Does it really matter if they go to 3% or 4%? The remaining people are indeed the diehards, and are in all likelihood fanatically devoted, or locked in (contract or business). To put it in perspective, LG is now 2% ahead, and Motorola is closer to 4% ahead.

The positive side is....well when you're essentially down to nothing, everything, everyone, is a gain. So, they won't have any issues about how they could find new market ;-)

Note: it is nice to see MS wallowing at 3%

[neteng1000]

Well let's put it this way. There is only one direction to go and its up!

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[mcmolineux]

The Z10 only came out at the end of March. Therefore, I think March will be the bottom. One more month of these numbers to go.

[BaconMunch]

No, I think BlackBerry still has some way to go down, the Z10 was a staggered release across the carriers right until the end of March, even then Sprint is not carrying a BB10 phone. I don't think the uptick will be felt until after the Q10 is released in May and so the first growth month I anticipate will be June-end. For BlackBerry to stay the course it has to grow at the same rate with the US smartphone market, right now I don't think that's possible until we start seeing some serious corporate adoption and app hurdles overcome to appease the masses. MS seems to be able to hold it's own (even though I have only seen one Lumia in the wild)

[Zarpan]

One thing to note is that comScore only looks at the respondent's primary mobile phone when doing these surveys. As per the comScore release - "Data on mobile phone usage refers to a respondent’s primary mobile phone and does not include data related to a respondent’s secondary device."

BlackBerry represents 5.4% of primary smartphones, but may also represent a larger proportion of secondary smartphones due to use in work settings and also the high average age of BlackBerry phones.

The difference was underscored in the UK data, where there were around 4 million BlackBerries in use as primary phones, but an estimated 6-8 million in total use - so an additional 2-4 million were secondary or tertiary phones.

Obviously BlackBerry wants/needs to make gains as a primary phone, but we need to keep in mind secondary numbers when looking at the total number of BlackBerries in use in the US.

[FSeverino]

So BB has gone down a further 0.5 points but is still above 5%.

You mean that in the 3 months leading up to the launch of an entirely new OS and direction of the company people dint buy a BlackBerry phone in numbers that resulted in ONLY a .5% drop?

I think that a 0.5% drop when everyone is waiting for the Z10 and Q10 is actually sort of an INCREASE. Consider the fact that this is a 0.5% drop NOT including Z10 and Q10 sales and the fact that so far the general consensus is that 50% of Z10 sales are iOS or Android converts, and that apparently there is over 1 million Z10s already sold (thread on the site).

That means that AT LEAST an additional half a million BB users are added... that will make up the 0.5 alone.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

You mean that in the 3 months leading up to the launch of an entirely new OS and direction of the company people dint buy a BlackBerry phone in numbers that resulted in ONLY a .5% drop?

I think that a 0.5% drop when everyone is waiting for the Z10 and Q10 is actually sort of an INCREASE. Consider the fact that this is a 0.5% drop NOT including Z10 and Q10 sales and the fact that so far the general consensus is that 50% of Z10 sales are iOS or Android converts, and that apparently there is over 1 million Z10s already sold (thread on the site).

That means that AT LEAST an additional half a million BB users are added... that will make up the 0.5 alone.

Well, calling it an increase is a bit of a stretch. However, I do a agree with you that things should improve when the Z10 and Q10 sales are included. The slide is bad but it could be worse. As long as Microsoft doesn't catch up which doesn't look likely as this was their best chance and they didn't do it.

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[FSeverino]

Well, calling it an increase is a bit of a stretch. However, I do a agree with you that things should improve when the Z10 and Q10 sales are included. The slide is bad but it could be worse. As long as Microsoft doesn't catch up which doesn't look likely as this was their best chance and they didn't do it.

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I mean increase in the sense that it should have been lower. Obviously it's a decrease in numbers, but it isn't a steep drop at all. What was the drop last time?

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[Foreverup]

No zero would be the bottom. BlackBerry hits 0% no coming back.

[tiziano27]

It's unlikely that BB could take 5% market share this year in US, so this number is far from bottom.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

I mean increase in the sense that it should have been lower. Obviously it's a decrease in numbers, but it isn't a steep drop at all. What was the drop last time?

Posted via CB10

Well, let's look at the comScore numbers for the last 6 months.

Sep 2012: 8.4%
Oct 2012: 7.8%
Nov 2012: 7.3%
Dec 2012: 6.4%
Jan 2013: 5.9%
Feb 2013: 5.4%

So the decrease has been more or less steady at an average of 0.6 percentage points. Biggest drop was from November to December, a drop of almost 1 percentage point.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

No zero would be the bottom. BlackBerry hits 0% no coming back.

Yes, that is the theoretical bottom of course. However, it is unlikely for BB to hit 0%. If BB10 was a complete failure, which as of now it doesn't look to be the case, it would have been possible.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

It's unlikely that BB could take 5% market share this year in US, so this number is far from bottom.

Why is that unlikely? It's much more unlikely for WP to hit 5% at the end of the year in my opinion.

[beginner09]

5.4%...ahaaha wata joke

[sentimentGX4]

Why is that unlikely? It's much more unlikely for WP to hit 5% at the end of the year in my opinion.

Are you referring to 5% in sales? BBRY had 3.6% sales in the 3 months ending in Feb 2012 according to Kantar.

Android And Windows Phone Gain, BlackBerry Loses In Smartphone OS Share According To Kantar | TechCrunch

That basically puts the goal more into perspective. BBRY will need to sell a lot more devices than it did in that time period.

[AjaxMilanBarcaSC]

Are you referring to 5% in sales? BBRY had 3.6% sales in the 3 months ending in Feb 2012 according to Kantar.

Android And Windows Phone Gain, BlackBerry Loses In Smartphone OS Share According To Kantar | TechCrunch

That basically puts the goal more into perspective. BBRY will need to sell a lot more devices than it did in that time period.

Nope, not sales but subscribers. BB already has 5.4% market share in subscribers according to my OP.

I do agree that BB will have to sell a lot to increase their subscriber numbers. Probably at least 10% of sales market share. MS is selling at around 4% and that is just enough to maintain or slightly increase their 3% subscriber market share. Therefore, it gives us a good estimate that you need to at least be selling at around 10% to see an increase in your subscriber numbers.

[greggebhardt]

No zero would be the bottom. BlackBerry hits 0% no coming back.

They could never hit zero, just the fans here would use them no matter what!

For BB to make a come back from 5%, Really?

[FSeverino]

Well, let's look at the comScore numbers for the last 6 months.

Sep 2012: 8.4%
Oct 2012: 7.8%
Nov 2012: 7.3%
Dec 2012: 6.4%
Jan 2013: 5.9%
Feb 2013: 5.4%

So the decrease has been more or less steady at an average of 0.6 percentage points. Biggest drop was from November to December, a drop of almost 1 percentage point.

See, i know that you may think im fanboying this... but really i think this is a good thing. BB only dropped 1% in the 2 months before the launch of an entirely new ecosystem, os and phone. People knew that this was coming and held off on buy 'old' BBs, which is VERY evident in the fact tht many devs pulled out of developing for OS7 way before BB10 launch. YES it is a loss, and ANY LOSS is a negative... but im sure iPhone 4 sales dipped at 4S launch and 4S at the 5 launch. We also have to consider that the Q10 was not released yet.

We need to give it time, technically these numbers dont even include the Z10... I would say June/July will be a time where numbers can be more accurate and counted for something.

[raysgrumpy]

They lost another 3 million customers last quarter (world wide) and there is no indication that the Q10 will be available in the US until next quarter. It will be out in the UK in about 3 weeks and might not be out in the US until June or July, if it follows the same pattern as the Z10. The HTC One and Galaxy S4 will be available by then and they are going to sell like hotcakes