1. Houshinto's Avatar
    By: Carmi Levy Published on Tue Aug 06 2013

    For a while, it looked like BlackBerry was going to pull it off.

    Its new Z10 and Q10 phones, based on the BlackBerry 10 operating system, were beginning to excise memories of stale handsets and restore the company’s reputation for engineering-led innovation. CEO Thorsten Heins had had over a year to hammer home his vision for the company and get everyone to forget the controversy that surrounded final months — and the eventual exit — of former co-CEOs Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis. Investors liked what they saw enough to almost triple share values by the time the new devices were announced in January and then keep prices firmly in the $14 to $15 range through much of the year.

    Then the company reported its most recent quarterly results and the wheels seemed to be coming off the bus. On top of a loss of $84 million (U.S.), its global subscriber base slipped by 4 million — its third straight quarterly loss — to 72 million amid reports that its new flagship handsets weren’t having the big bang impact everyone had hoped. The subscriber numbers, which had held firm through the company’s darkest period in 2012, are critical to BlackBerry’s future. Lose the loyalists and those dark clouds get even darker.

    BlackBerry’s unhappy surprise was rooted in one of the unfortunate realities of today’s mobile market: once consumers have moved on, it’s hard if not next to impossible to win them back. As well received as the new BlackBerrys were, they needed to be light years better than competing iPhones and Android-powered devices to overcome years of negative publicity and growing consumer apathy.

    Unfortunately, they weren’t light years better — no company can wow us at this point. The market has matured, and we’re long past the point of revolutionary new capabilities appearing every year. While BlackBerry struggled, Apple and Google swooped in and put the mobile market into a virtual headlock. In this brave new mobile world, it’s been a challenge for BlackBerry to squeeze in and steal consumers’ attention long enough to convince them to take a chance on the once-dominant, now-underdog player.

    BlackBerry has already announced its next volley in its battle to reclaim some of its former glory — its Q5 handset hits stores Aug. 13. The new device, which targets a more affordable audience than the high-end Z10 and Q10, is aimed squarely at the legions of BlackBerry Curve owners who are approaching the end of their respective contracts. It didn’t announce pricing, but virtually all major Canadian carriers will be on-board, and the new offering will be aggressively marketed for the all-important back-to-school season.
    But don’t think BlackBerry’s future rests squarely on the shoulders of one — or any — piece of hardware.

    “Our business model is changing with the launch of the BlackBerry 10 platform,” said Adam Emery, BlackBerry’s vice-president of communications. “While we continue to invest in the global launch of BlackBerry 10, we are not a devices-only company. BlackBerry 10 is meant to do more.”
    Emery says the company is focused on expanding BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 deployments — including supporting iOS and Android devices — as well as extending its BBM social messaging service across multiple platforms and leveraging its secure BlackBerry Global Data Network.

    Emery’s comments reinforce how different the future company needs to be to remain a force in the mobile space. As much buzz as the Q5 will likely generate, an eventual complete exit from the handset market remains on the horizon. Heins has repeatedly claimed all options are on the table, and the recently announced layoff of 250 people in the product test division suggests the drawdown in hardware has begun. The decision to kill the slow-selling PlayBook tablet is another sign BlackBerry is moving beyond hardware.

    Whatever form the future business takes, BlackBerry’s near-term challenge is a stark one. It needs to stay on buyers’ radar — which means a shift in marketing from launch-heavy campaigns to more sustained messaging that keeps the brand relevant long after a new device first hits store shelves. It needs to continue its push to engage developers and fill yawning gaps in its app store. And it needs to fulfil its promise to deliver BBM — both the app and all related services — to iPhones, iPads, Android devices, and any other platform that may emerge in future.

    The company may yet pull it off. But whether we can still buy a BlackBerry-branded device when all is said and done remains an open question.

    Carmi Levy is a London, Ont.-based independent technology analyst and journalist.
    [email protected]
    An interesting web of points this writer compiles to sell his view of Blackberry's future. Regardless if he's right or wrong, all can agree that the current direction and efforts have underwhelmed the very people they were targeting. I'm hoping the Z30 and 10.2 will be an effective an Ace as they seem to be touting it to be.
    Last edited by BergerKing; 08-06-13 at 01:05 PM. Reason: Edit for readability.
    Blacklatino likes this.
    08-06-13 12:45 PM
  2. BergerKing's Avatar
    Did some editing to properly attribute quote and make it readable. Copy and paste gave you a wall of text.
    08-06-13 12:58 PM
  3. Brandon Orr's Avatar
    I didn't think it was pessimistic, it's just stating that thus far it hasn't been an overwhelming success which is a fair point if view.

    Posted via CB10
    kbz1960 likes this.
    08-06-13 01:09 PM
  4. Poirots Progeny's Avatar
    I didn't think it was pessimistic, it's just stating that thus far it hasn't been an overwhelming success which is a fair point if view.

    Posted via CB10
    Agreed. Thus far it hasn't been overwhelming. BlackBerry has a way to go - give it a couple oof quarters at least...

    Posted via CB10 on my BlackBerry Q10
    08-06-13 01:31 PM
  5. ccbs's Avatar
    I don't really see how anyone can interpret this article as being negative. It took a very realistic view and concluded what had happened since launch till now.
    qwerty4ever likes this.
    08-06-13 03:07 PM
  6. Blacklatino's Avatar
    Interesting article. As to what happens next, nothing is for certain regarding the future of BlackBerry- whether negative or positive.
    08-06-13 03:19 PM
  7. Houshinto's Avatar
    I didn't think it was pessimistic, it's just stating that thus far it hasn't been an overwhelming success which is a fair point if view.

    Posted via CB10
    Yes, it's an opinion, but a pessimistic one implied with lines like. "unfortunate realities of today’s mobile market: once consumers have moved on, it’s hard if not next to impossible to win them back", or "they weren’t light years better — no company can wow us at this point. The market has matured, and we’re long past the point of revolutionary new capabilities appearing every year".
    08-06-13 03:51 PM
  8. stusue's Avatar
    Very realistic article.
    Pessimistic would be if he alluded to how atrocious blackberries marketing is compared to its competitors. Or how slow BlackBerry is to roll out updates. Pessimistic would be it he mentioned the mysterious re booting or the browser lockups.
    I think he was quite generous.

    Posted via CB10
    08-06-13 07:00 PM
  9. Brutal Efficiency's Avatar
    Next year the current BlackBerry 10 phones will be cheaper, and that will fill the void that BlackBerry has in the lower segments. This will be great for emerging markets!!

    I have thought for a while that it will take a bit for BlackBerry 10 to finally bear fruit. I think it will when nice devices like the Q5 and Z10 (Z5??) drop down to a low range.

    Q5 will be low-range. Q6 will be mid-range. Q10 will be mid-high range, Q11 will be high-high.

    That's exactly the sort of ranges BlackBerry will benefit from. Now they just need these ranges in many form factors.

    Slider; 6" Phablet; Flip (with flexible display). All of these filled with 3 ranges would be great. Even if it was just a high range that was just bumped down every year by the upgrade.

    Also, I think they should be gunning for a thin-client tablet. 3 sizes, really cheap as it would be a thin client.

    I also think they should be making a Flagship tablet with all the bells and whistles. Proper BlackBerry 10 with a really upgraded version of things like Word To Go and other Enterprise-esque apps.

    My Tech-Fleet: Q10; Z10; PlayBook; Surface Pro; Xbox 360; HP TouchPad; iPod Touch 5
    08-06-13 08:50 PM
  10. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    Yes, it's an opinion, but a pessimistic one implied with lines like. "unfortunate realities of today’s mobile market: once consumers have moved on, it’s hard if not next to impossible to win them back", or "they weren’t light years better — no company can wow us at this point. The market has matured, and we’re long past the point of revolutionary new capabilities appearing every year".
    The part about customers not coming back after they've moved on is actually true. Historically, they don't come back.
    08-06-13 10:48 PM
  11. Jake Storm's Avatar
    The part about customers not coming back after they've moved on is actually true. Historically, they don't come back.
    Source?
    08-07-13 01:02 AM
  12. bobauckland's Avatar
    Source?
    Common sense?
    If you bought a product that promised email in 90 days and delivered it a year later would you trust them again?
    If you bought a brand new product and it lost 50% of value in 2 months would you buy a brand new product from that company again?
    If you bought a tablet and were told a new OS was coming to it, and then suddenly after selling loads of them on that promise you got told actually it's not coming, would you trust that company again?
    If you used a device that didn't keep up with the competition wouldn't you be reluctant to return to that product family?
    It's generally miles better to have people who have never tried a previous product and are at least willing to give it a new one a chance, rather than people who've absolutely hated a previous product and will be extra critical of future products.

    That's why failed businesses or companies often change their names, to lose the stigma attached with a previous name.
    21stNow and kbz1960 like this.
    08-07-13 03:27 AM
  13. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    Source?
    "History" is my source (hence the term "historically"). Think about it: can you name a company that's ever led a tech segment, lost that position, and then regained its leading position? I can only think of one.

    Apple in computers? No. IBM? Gateway? Dell? No on all three.

    Sony in portable music players? No.

    Sony in televisions? No. RCA before them? No.

    Nokia in cell phones? No.

    Yahoo in Internet search? No.

    Netscape in web browsers? No.

    Atari in video game consoles? No.

    Palm in PDAs? No.

    Flip in portable video cameras? No.

    In each case, either customers never returned, or the segment died off. The one company I can think off that has recovered its #/1 spot is Nintendo, but even that was largely the result of the generational shifts of the video game industry (NES led everyone, but SNES, N64 and GameCube didn't, but then the Wii did again, though it was short lived).
    Last edited by Wiki Cydia; 08-07-13 at 08:53 AM. Reason: Typos (it's, tgink)
    08-07-13 07:24 AM
  14. 19andy91's Avatar
    "History" is my source (hence the term "historically"). Tgink about it: can you name a company that's ever led a tech segment, lost that position, and then regained its leading position? I can only think of one.

    Apple in computers? No. IBM? Gateway? Dell? No on all three.

    Sony in portable music players? No.

    Sony in televisions? No. RCA before them? No.

    Nokia in cell phones? No.

    Yahoo in Internet search? No.

    Netscape in web browsers? No.

    Atari in video game consoles? No.

    Palm in PDAs? No.

    Flip in portable video cameras? No.

    In each case, either customers never returned, or the segment died off. The one company I can think off that has recovered it's #1 spot is Nintendo, but even that was largely the result of the generational shifts of the video game industry (NES led everyone, but SNES, N64 and GameCube didn't, but then the Wii did again, though it was short lived).

    strange how nokia has died out yet is selling high end devices and is making a come back ...... slowy but surely sadly there choice of partner means ill never buy a nokia device again also the wii got the number 1 spot ? when ? its always been a fight between sony and microsoft for number 1 the wii made a decent comeback for nintendo but it didnt get number 1 i dont know where you got that idea from also nintendo situtation is quite like blackberry the wii u has finally embraced hd gaming yet sony and microsoft are going 4k and 60fps only blackberry seems to be less far out of times then nintendo
    08-07-13 08:01 AM
  15. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    strange how nokia has died out yet is selling high end devices and is making a come back ...... slowy but surely sadly there choice of partner means ill never buy a nokia device again
    Who said Nokia died out? It wasn't me. But let me know when they're #1 again; that they're "making a come back" is not at all special. Apple is making a "come back" in computers, yet they're not going to be #1 again.

    also the wii got the number 1 spot ? when ? its always been a fight between sony and microsoft for number 1 the wii made a decent comeback for nintendo but it didnt get number 1 i dont know where you got that idea from also nintendo situtation is quite like blackberry the wii u has finally embraced hd gaming yet sony and microsoft are going 4k and 60fps only blackberry seems to be less far out of times then nintendo
    In 2007, the Wii sold more consoles than either the Xbox 360 or the PS3: 2007 in video gaming - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    08-07-13 08:15 AM
  16. hauger's Avatar
    strange how nokia has died out yet is selling high end devices and is making a come back ...... slowy but surely sadly there choice of partner means ill never buy a nokia device again also the wii got the number 1 spot ? when ? its always been a fight between sony and microsoft for number 1 the wii made a decent comeback for nintendo but it didnt get number 1 i dont know where you got that idea from also nintendo situtation is quite like blackberry the wii u has finally embraced hd gaming yet sony and microsoft are going 4k and 60fps only blackberry seems to be less far out of times then nintendo
    As of June 2013:
    PS3 Sales Worldwide - 78 Million
    Xbox 360 Sales Worldwide - 78 Million
    Wii Sales Worldwide - 101 Million

    Winner: Wii (Nintendo)

    Lesson learned - research before speaking

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9810 using Tapatalk
    Akuji_ism likes this.
    08-07-13 08:43 AM
  17. Houshinto's Avatar
    Very realistic article.
    Pessimistic would be if he alluded to how atrocious blackberries marketing is compared to its competitors. Or how slow BlackBerry is to roll out updates. Pessimistic would be it he mentioned the mysterious re booting or the browser lockups.
    I think he was quite generous.

    Posted via CB10
    No, that's criticism or to some "hatin'".

    It seems that a lot of people who tout that this article is "realistic", "generous", etc. are missing the definition of "Pessimistic". I'm not arguing that there isn't some validity in the statements, based on past events, presented by the author. But there are areas where he expressed an opinion and it is there were there is pessimism. Whether it's warranted or not is up to the reader. Regardless, it's there. That's why I point it out.
    08-07-13 10:57 AM
  18. Houshinto's Avatar
    The part about customers not coming back after they've moved on is actually true. Historically, they don't come back.
    I agree with the original author that it's "hard...to win them back", but it didn't need to be said in the article if not to present a pessimistic view.
    And I'm sorry, but justifying that view with your generalized opinion doesn't prove much.

    For the sake of debunking a pessimistic generality that has no reason to be an iron clad view.
    Examples of companies that have lost customers to later "win them back".
    -Marvel (Yes. They even filed for bankrupcy in 1996)
    -Chrysler/GM
    -McDonalds
    -Yahoo (Still a work in progress, but they've turned the corner, arguably)
    -and of course the ubitquitous Apple

    Let's not digress as to how. We're talking about bucking your doubling down on what was originally a pessimistic opinion.

    No offense, but I find statements like that frustrating.
    08-07-13 11:32 AM
  19. MasterOfBinary's Avatar
    No, that's criticism or to some "hatin'".

    It seems that a lot of people who tout that this article is "realistic", "generous", etc. are missing the definition of "Pessimistic". I'm not arguing that there isn't some validity in the statements, based on past events, presented by the author. But there are areas where he expressed an opinion and it is there were there is pessimism. Whether it's warranted or not is up to the reader. Regardless, it's there. That's why I point it out.
    For the record, I don't think the author is being pessimistic. He's looking at the things that are happening and what he thinks will be the outcome.

    Now what about the things you're saying are pessimistic?

    "unfortunate realities of today’s mobile market: once consumers have moved on, it’s hard if not next to impossible to win them back"

    This is absolutely true if you ask anyone in business. Just look at what people say about the Z10 and Q10. People who have been BB fans in the past and moved to another platform, are they going to come back? A lot won't, because they've been burned by BB/RIM in the past and it's left a bad taste in their mouth.

    "they weren’t light years better"

    Also true. Is BB10 light years better? I would say, besides apps, it's pretty close to what the competition has. And it's better in some ways. But peek, flow, and a hub aren't going to make people say wow.

    "no company can wow us at this point. The market has matured, and we’re long past the point of revolutionary new capabilities appearing every year"

    This is one thing I think isn't true. Although we haven't seen a lot of innovation recently, I think it's still possible. Perhaps in 5 years we won't even be using phones like we do today. Maybe our phones will fold up and fit in a wallet. Maybe something else will happen. But right now BB isn't the one doing the innovation - they have to step up their game if they're going to be the ones paving the way for others in the future.
    08-07-13 11:59 AM
  20. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    I agree with the original author that it's "hard...to win them back", but it didn't need to be said in the article if not to present a pessimistic view.
    And I'm sorry, but justifying that view with your generalized opinion doesn't prove much.
    And yet you counter my "generalized opinion" with your generalized opinion. I love hypocrisy.

    For the sake of debunking a pessimistic generality that has no reason to be an iron clad view.
    Examples of companies that have lost customers to later "win them back".
    -Marvel (Yes. They even filed for bankrupcy in 1996)
    -Chrysler/GM
    -McDonalds
    Had you actually read my post you'd note that I only referred to tech segment companies when I wrote this:

    Think about it: can you name a company that's ever led a tech segment, lost that position, and then regained its leading position? I can only think of one.
    (Emphasis added)

    So. . .which "tech segment" is Marvel in? Chrysler? McDonalds? Unless quarter-pounders are wi-fi enabled, what's your point? (And if they are, what's the battery life?)

    No offense, but I find statements like that frustrating.
    These days my frustrations are with the lack of fundamental reading comprehension. Thanks for being today's Exhibit A.
    Last edited by Wiki Cydia; 08-07-13 at 12:48 PM.
    08-07-13 12:31 PM
  21. the_sleuth's Avatar
    The problem is BlackBerry is a tarnished brand in the U.S. Consumers read the news. There is at one negative article on BlackBerry per week for the last 18 months. Past users of BlackBerry have negative memories of BBOS with battery pulls, lagging OS, and lack of apps in a poor ecosystem. Now BlackBerry has addressed the OS and has to spend marketing dollars to educate the public. Also Alec Saunders has to perform a better job of providing development dollars for most sought after native apps by BB10 users.
    08-07-13 12:47 PM
  22. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Pessimistic - A tendency to stress the negative or unfavorable or to take the gloomiest possible view.

    As a owner of BlackBerry STORM, a BlackBerry PlayBook and a witness of the BlackBerry "comeback" of 2013 - I will admit that when it comes to BlackBerry being able to make a recovery... it sure looks gloomy.

    Is it possible - of course it is. But overpriced hardware, slow to be release updated, very little support from developers or carriers (and even themselves) and a company that seems to be making the same mistakes over and over and over. Does not instill an air of confidence in that recovery being a reality.

    Think right now if you asked a Vegas Bookie to give you odds, it would be a very long shot.

    But we will know a lot more next month - I expect profits will be down, but the sales of BB10 devices had better far exceed the loss of BBOS devices. If not I'm not sure what they are going to tell us - that the numbers didn't include the expected revenues for cross-platform BBM?.
    08-07-13 01:16 PM
  23. DenverRalphy's Avatar
    Who said Nokia died out? It wasn't me. But let me know when they're #1 again; that they're "making a come back" is not at all special. Apple is making a "come back" in computers, yet they're not going to be #1 again.
    To be fair... Apple never was #1 in computers. Although they got dangerously close with the Apple II and when the consumer market was fresh.
    08-07-13 01:24 PM
  24. 21stNow's Avatar
    "History" is my source (hence the term "historically"). Think about it: can you name a company that's ever led a tech segment, lost that position, and then regained its leading position? I can only think of one.

    Apple in computers? No. IBM? Gateway? Dell? No on all three.

    Sony in portable music players? No.

    Sony in televisions? No. RCA before them? No.

    Nokia in cell phones? No.

    Yahoo in Internet search? No.

    Netscape in web browsers? No.

    Atari in video game consoles? No.

    Palm in PDAs? No.

    Flip in portable video cameras? No.

    In each case, either customers never returned, or the segment died off. The one company I can think off that has recovered its #/1 spot is Nintendo, but even that was largely the result of the generational shifts of the video game industry (NES led everyone, but SNES, N64 and GameCube didn't, but then the Wii did again, though it was short lived).
    I don't know if Motorola Mobility ever led in the cellular phone race, but they definitely had peaks and valleys with market penetration. Many people who had cell phones in the late 80's to mid 90's had a Motorola device. Then they dropped off. In the mid-2000's, they came back with the RAZR. Then they dropped off again. Their contributions to the DROID line of devices, along with other devices gave them a boost in the early 2010's. We're still in the next phase after that, so time will tell what will happen now that Google owns them.
    08-07-13 09:16 PM

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