[southlander]

(..from theregister.co.uk)

Open ... and Shut The spread of high-end smart phones throughout the rich, developed world is largely made possible by expensive data plans. Such plans enable carriers to subsidise expensive iPhones and Android devices, to the point that even a big swath of teenagers in the Western world can realistically plan to buy iPhones and iPads.

Small wonder, therefore, that as dominant as Apple has been in developed economies, it remains a pipe dream in emerging economies, which continue to buy Symbian feature phones en masse. When a consumer in an emerging economy buys a smartphone, it has traditionally been a RIM Blackberry. Increasingly, however, that "Rest of World" market is moving to Android and this, more than any competition for the hearts and minds of the rich, may decide the smartphone battle for Android once and for all.

Mobile analytics company Flurry released data in December that suggests a rising global middle class � 1.8 billion strong � is ready to buy iOS and Android devices.

Since Apple's launch in China in 2009, plenty of prognosticators have declared that despite the two-year data cost for an iPhone, hordes of middle-class workers would spend their entire annual income to own an iPhone. And, according to the data, plenty have.

But other data suggests that emerging economies may be much wiser with their limited incomes than the developed world has been with its bloated wallets. NetMarketShare data, for example, pegs JavaME as the world's fastest growing mobile operating system. That same research shows iOS and Android in decline, with Symbian and Blackberry both growing since October 2011.

It could be that the data is off, of course, but it's highly plausible that in the case of most of the world, people can't afford expensive hardware, nor pricey data plans to subsidise the hardware.

This is why RIM, for all its stumbles in developed economies, is growing strongly in emerging markets. And it's why JavaME, which powers low-end feature phones, remains a very big deal, even if it doesn't generate much revenue for Oracle.

It's also why Android, not iOS, has the most potential to dominate smart phones and tablets, globally.

Apple controls most of the mobile handset industry profits, which isn't likely to change much. Apple has always focused more on profit margin than market share. If given the option of minting billions in rich markets or dropping prices through the floor to compete aggressively in emerging markets, Apple is going to laugh all the way to the bank.

Android, by contrast, is a ready-made platform for both high-end and low-end smart phones, the latter being a great upgrade from the developing world's feature phones and Blackberrys.

Google technical lead Clinton DeWitt articulates this well:

For some pundits, it's all about which companies are building the fanciest and most feature-rich handheld computers. Which, if we're being honest about it, are devices for those that already have everything. When you're at the top, it's great to see the tech giants going head-to-head and competing for our dollars like this. Having a few dollars, I benefit from that, too.

And yet in spite of that, I'm even more excited about seeing a $25 mobile device that has access to a killer web browser and endless mobile apps, and watching that device appear in the hands of a billion school children over the next 10 years.

This isn't a question of which device is better. Pinch/Zoom founder Brian Fling can argue that "the iPhone is the perfect mobile design and development platform", but that's an irrelevant argument for the farmer in Uganda or the office worker in Chile. Which is why Kenya's Safaricom has already sold 350,000 Android-based, $80 smart phones to a populace which averages a $2 per day living allowance.

Thom Holwerda is thus largely correct in asserting that "the iPhone's impact on the world is negligible", whatever its impact on markets for the rich. This isn't to disparage what Apple has done, but to put it in context, and to serve as a reminder of just how revolutionary Android promises to be for the world. �

[mjs416]

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I do find the following ridiculous...

Since Apple's launch in China in 2009, plenty of prognosticators have declared that despite the two-year data cost for an iPhone, hordes of middle-class workers would spend their entire annual income to own an iPhone. And, according to the data, plenty have.

Spending their entire annual income on an iphone? WTF is wrong with people. If there income is so low they are spending a years salary on a phone - they really need to adjust their priorities.

[southlander]

It is interesting because it jibes with a lot of what gets said here on CB. RIM's doing well worldwide because of providing low cost handsets and services with global reach (mainly BBM), that work well on lower bandwidth pipes.

It implies there is a good market niche for RIM that kinda fits like so:

1. Apple markets pricey hardware and reaps fat profits but stays away from the low end.

2. Android mops up everywhere. Cheap hardware and powerful software. But fragmented as heck.

3. RIM keeps selling Curves. But RIM focuses on providing more efficient centralized subscriber based services that have worldwide reach. Basically sort of QoS for the open mobile web. Compression, better security, redundancy, and for businesses device management.

[Economist101]

"And yet in spite of that, I'm even more excited about seeing a $25 mobile device that has access to a killer web browser and endless mobile apps, and watching that device appear in the hands of a billion school children over the next 10 years."

Great. Let us know when it's ready.

[i7guy]

"And yet in spite of that, I'm even more excited about seeing a $25 mobile device that has access to a killer web browser and endless mobile apps, and watching that device appear in the hands of a billion school children over the next 10 years."

Great. Let us know when it's ready.

They are already being made. Maybe not $25, but certainly low cost enough.

[i7guy]

Great article. I do like my ipad, and I agree apple is the epitomy of form over function. It's just not at the top when it comes to form and function coming together.

[lamazion]

I'm not sure I understand the "form over function" comment. I use an iphone for home use. It seamlessly integrates email, calendar, music, and web. Apple products are designed arround simplicity and function. My ipad is on my desk at work and my playbook sits at home. Why? Because currently the ipad has the business functionality I need. I love my playbook, but for me it's a toy until I have better productivity apps available.

[i7guy]

I'm not sure I understand the "form over function" comment. I use an iphone for home use. It seamlessly integrates email, calendar, music, and web. Apple products are designed arround simplicity and function. My ipad is on my desk at work and my playbook sits at home. Why? Because currently the ipad has the business functionality I need. I love my playbook, but for me it's a toy until I have better productivity apps available.

I use by BB for business, ipad is kind of a toy with no business apps, but netflix runs great on it. I dislike the native email client and the browser keeps crashing. It's simple all right and there is no upload/download button in mobile safari, android and playbook both support that.

Hence my comment form over function.

[Tre Lawrence]

Interesting article. It does beg the question: is Apple's strategy working? It seems to be.

[undone]

Interesting article. It does beg the question: is Apple's strategy working? It seems to be.

No strategy works forever, adapt or die...RIM is the shiny example of what happens when your on top and do nothing with it.

[Tre Lawrence]

No strategy works forever, adapt or die...RIM is the shiny example of what happens when your on top and do nothing with it.

Can't argue with that.

[mjs416]

I'm not sure I understand the "form over function" comment. I use an iphone for home use. It seamlessly integrates email, calendar, music, and web. Apple products are designed arround simplicity and function. My ipad is on my desk at work and my playbook sits at home. Why? Because currently the ipad has the business functionality I need. I love my playbook, but for me it's a toy until I have better productivity apps available.

I always hear about the app benefits of the ipad/iphone but my wife has both and I have found useful apps on neither. I searched in vein for anything in the apple app store that would provide more utility than my PB in my field (I am a facility engineer). I understand app's are important but 1 useful app is better than 10,000 apps that dont do jack for you.

[lamazion]

I always hear about the app benefits of the ipad/iphone but my wife has both and I have found useful apps on neither. I searched in vein for anything in the apple app store that would provide more utility than my PB in my field (I am a facility engineer). I understand app's are important but 1 useful app is better than 10,000 apps that dont do jack for you.

I agree there isn't a need for thousands of apps, just a handful of useful ones. unfortunately for me, I couldn't find the ones I needed on the PB. I'm hoping that will change in the future because I do like the size and function of the PB. Currently I need to access work email, a good task managent app with notifications and repeats, and a banking app. My ipad does all three of these, my PB cannot.

[Tre Lawrence]

I agree there isn't a need for thousands of apps, just a handful of useful ones. unfortunately for me, I couldn't find the ones I needed on the PB. I'm hoping that will change in the future because I do like the size and function of the PB. Currently I need to access work email, a good task managent app with notifications and repeats, and a banking app. My ipad does all three of these, my PB cannot.

Bingo...

It's all about that increased functionality. A great app selection does that. Even an app like HanDBase would be golden... I can see an engineer going to town with that.

[ADFXPro777]

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I do find the following ridiculous...



Spending their entire annual income on an iphone? WTF is wrong with people. If there income is so low they are spending a years salary on a phone - they really need to adjust their priorities.

The American market, in a somewhat similar sense, isn't too far off. According to financial databases I have seen, the average net-worth of iphone users is pretty small, typically no more than $20k.

It would be pretty interesting to see the specific net-worths of smartphone users in other parts of the world.

[16698624]

Good article. Thanks for posting.

I do find the following ridiculous...



Spending their entire annual income on an iphone? WTF is wrong with people. If there income is so low they are spending a years salary on a phone - they really need to adjust their priorities.

that's not true...an iphone is worth about two months salary of typical chinese middle class... there was a college student sold his kidney for an ipad though...

[mjs416]

that's not true...an iphone is worth about two months salary of typical chinese middle class... there was a college student sold his kidney for an ipad though...

I was just quoting the author who said people in other parts of the world spend a years salary on a phone. Live in a shack, dont have a vehicle but by golly - I have an iphone.

[mjs416]

Bingo...

It's all about that increased functionality. A great app selection does that. Even an app like HanDBase would be golden... I can see an engineer going to town with that.

A great app selection would, by definition, be able to provide app's with utility to a user. It might be a "great" app selection to you - but its a "lousy" app selection for me.

[Tre Lawrence]

A great app selection would, by definition, be able to provide app's with utility to a user. It might be a "great" app selection to you - but its a "lousy" app selection for me.

Agreed... but even a robust app selection that fit your specific needs would not compel you to switch, right? Not that it necessarily should, as there are other factors.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk

[mjs416]

Agreed... but even a robust app selection that fit your specific needs would not compel you to switch, right? Not that it necessarily should, as there are other factors.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk

I may be compelled but as you said - other factors come into play. I know I am unrealistic with my app expectations (on any platform really) but hearing people who go on and on about how the app selection on iphone is fantastic and BB it sucks is illogical to me. Switching to a platform for the sheer number of apps is silly IMO. Especially if there isnt any app that works for you.

[jonty12]

I agree there isn't a need for thousands of apps, just a handful of useful ones. unfortunately for me, I couldn't find the ones I needed on the PB. I'm hoping that will change in the future because I do like the size and function of the PB. Currently I need to access work email, a good task managent app with notifications and repeats, and a banking app. My ipad does all three of these, my PB cannot.

I'm confused. Your profile says you have a Bold for work. If you have a BB phone and a PlayBook your needs are met nicely:

1. Work email - check!
2. Task Management app with notifications and repeats - check!
3. Where do you bank? some banks check! others, not so much...

[undone]

I may be compelled but as you said - other factors come into play. I know I am unrealistic with my app expectations (on any platform really) but hearing people who go on and on about how the app selection on iphone is fantastic and BB it sucks is illogical to me. Switching to a platform for the sheer number of apps is silly IMO. Especially if there isnt any app that works for you.

And to add to this thought...and to assume I care about apps is a mistake as well.

[moretreelessbush]

Interesting article, it reinforces the notion that it's not Apple but Google and its Android partners that is the biggest threat to RIM.

[southlander]

Interesting article, it reinforces the notion that it's not Apple but Google and its Android partners that is the biggest threat to RIM.

Not quite in my opinion. It implies that Google/Android are a threat to *hardware profits*. The markets will be flooded with powerful and cheap Android devices. But they'll all be different. Basically the continuing fragmentation of Android in pursuit of volume hardware profits... Accelerated.

Apple won't care to chase the high volume low margin hardware profits. They'll sell pricey hardware to the relatively wealthy buyers. Premium devices only for the most part. Less marketshare, but plenty of profits. Apple being Apple.

So then, RIM, not being able to follow either of these paths, could-should-might... Focus more on services. Already there are rumors they are to license BB10. RIM's 70+ million monthly paying customers are a unique advantage. If they can focus their limited resources on tight integration of new services across *all BlackBerry devices*, that might be the ticket. Keep those subscribers and add more.

BlackBerry Travel is a great example of this. My family members travel here and there. We all have BlackBerrys. I have had everyone install BB Travel. So whenever anyone books a flight they share the trip with everyone else. BB Travel continuously sends updates across all our devices. So if we are dropping off/picking up at the airport, we are all on the same page. Gate changes, confirmation of safe flight arrivals. It all flows. This is how you do an app right.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9930 using Tapatalk

[lamazion]

I'm confused. Your profile says you have a Bold for work. If you have a BB phone and a PlayBook your needs are met nicely:

1. Work email - check!
2. Task Management app with notifications and repeats - check!
3. Where do you bank? some banks check! others, not so much...

1. For the most part, work emails isn't an issue. My one small gripe is that I need to unlock my BB phone to start Bridge. Maybe this is just a setting I haven't figured out. Either way, this was not a deal breaker.
2. The BB tasks app is pretty weak and doesn't have repeats. I've tried many available in app world, and none provided the functionality I wanted. I'm currently using Errands for the ipad. It is the closest I've seen to a FranklinCovey type approach. I'm deffinately open if someone knows of a good PB app.
3. Not available on PB for my bank.

Again, I purchased the PB with the intent to pair it with my BB phone as my primary work devise. I'm holding out hope that it will still happen. But right now it doesn't have the funcationality i want.