[takeo]

Recently I've been seeing job openings for marketing management or other management positions in Jakarta/Indonesia (actually applied, but didn't get thru) - and I've been wondering what is happening. Many months the openings are still there and every single day I have one person on my BB broadcasting "I'm gone, byebye, here is my phone number for Whatsapp" - and then they leave BlackBerry. (and out of 550 contacts, now I have 450)

Opening up to all platforms will further increase the rate of people leaving - I will personally probably stay with a BB and iPhone (as I do now, Q10 and iPhone 5), but I don't think many people are just as crazy as I am. And the main reason for Indonesians is actually the price of BBM - one payment, unlimited usage. They never make a call, EVERYTHING is done by texting.

I wonder if BlackBerry here in Indonesia is actually aware of the usage pattern - I have a feeling they're not. I personally like the idea of BBM going cross-platform, but it will crush the market completely in Indonesia. Even those people I know here who sell BBs are all like "we won't stock as many BBs anymore, doesn't make sense. Cheaper Androids instead."

Even BlackBerry’s most loyal market is switching to Samsung – Quartz

Cheers,

Takeo

[bobauckland]

You're missing the part that the one payment, unlimited BBM, will remain BlackBerry only. You won't get those data plans on other handsets.
That remains a pull.
All the Indonesian users posting over the last 24 hours are completely missing that point.

[con4n007]

You're missing the part that the one payment, unlimited BBM, will remain BlackBerry only. You won't get those data plans on other handsets.
That remains a pull.
All the Indonesian users posting over the last 24 hours are completely missing that point.

it doesnt really matter, 1G should be enough for texting and browsing, unless you download apps and watch stream movies.
even on BB, I only download stuff using WIFI.

[garnok]

You're missing the part that the one payment, unlimited BBM, will remain BlackBerry only. You won't get those data plans on other handsets.
That remains a pull.
All the Indonesian users posting over the last 24 hours are completely missing that point.

unlimited BBM is not a problem if user switch to android ,data plan in here is quite cheap Rp 25.000 for 600 MB (2.5usd) its good enough if you only using it for chat.if you need more Quota just buy other plan : Rp 50.000 for 1.2 GB (around 5 usd) , Rp 60.000 for 2gb (around 6 usd) , and 100.000 for 3.5gb (around 10usd)

its better deal than BIS plan for OS7 or below, Rp 45.0000 (4.5usd) only for BBM and social networking, rp 60.000 (6 usd) for BBM, and email , Rp 90.000 (9 usd) for BBM,Chat, Email, Social network,browsing but no video streaming. also regular data plan speed are much better than BIS

[bobauckland]

unlimited BBM is not a problem if user switch to android ,data plan in here is quite cheap Rp 25.000 for 600 MB (2.5usd) its good enough if you only using it for chat.if you need more Quota just buy other plan : Rp 50.000 for 1.2 GB (around 5 usd) , Rp 60.000 for 2gb (around 6 usd) , and 100.000 for 3.5gb (around 10usd)

its better deal than BIS plan for OS7 or below, Rp 45.0000 (4.5usd) only for BBM and social networking, rp 60.000 (6 usd) for BBM, and email , Rp 90.000 (9 usd) for BBM,Chat, Email, Social network,browsing but no video streaming. also regular data plan speed are much better than BIS

So you're saying BB plans are now more expensive than Android and iOS plans?
Interesting.
Read the OPs post, where he says the draw for BBM is one payment, unlimited texting.
One of you is misinformed right?

[DSL9700]

First blackberry makes little money on the low end devices. Now think if BBM goes crossplatform would u use that intrusive inferior whatsapp? Or would those 100 people go back to BBM create groups, channels, make phone and video calls and even send money to their sister?? Money's is in the software.

[garnok]

So you're saying BB plans are now more expensive than Android and iOS plans?
Interesting.
Read the OPs post, where he says the draw for BBM is one payment, unlimited texting.
One of you is misinformed right?

better deal its not mean it is cheaper it can be cheaper. its just with the same kind of money you can used it for more and you get much better internet speed.

with 5 usd you can use 1.2 GB data plan you can use it for Chat (Whatsapp, Line, BBM if its available etc) ,social networking, light browsing, video streaming (if you know how to manage the quota) vs 4.5usd BB data plan you only can use it for chat (BBM only) + Social networking/email

and if you are not heavy user and you will mainly using it only for chat and email and with a few browsing 2.5usd 600mb data plan are available for you android, ios users

what's the meaning of one payment ? just pay once then you can do Call, text, and BIS ? if it's what he means then the OP never call or SMS someone with his BB. because no carrier in here will give you free call or text with Blackberry data plan. (what his mean with unlimited texting = BBM)

but what i know is many people here only using his BBM refused to make a calling or sms someone because he/she afraid it will run out his/her credit (pre paid is the majority in here)

[Raestloz]

Let the market do the talking. BlackBerry 10 simply doesn't have cheap devices yet.

Besides, it's not like people will suddenly ditch their BlackBerry in a second and rush to phone shop to get a new device.

It will change the minds of people that wants to buy a BlackBerry now, but once cheap BlackBerry 10 devices come, they won't have that kind of thinking.



Posted via CrackBerry 10

[garnok]

Let the market do the talking. BlackBerry 10 simply doesn't have cheap devices yet.

Besides, it's not like people will suddenly ditch their BlackBerry in a second and rush to phone shop to get a new device.

It will change the minds of people that wants to buy a BlackBerry now, but once cheap BlackBerry 10 devices come, they won't have that kind of thinking.



Posted via CrackBerry 10

yeah i'm planning to ditch BB when BBM app available on my android . but i still have to see the BBM app on my android working properly or not. my main concern for BBM android app
* is it still have D, R notification when i'm sending my message
* can i send and receive picture / file from my BBM app (Thor said it can, but we know every android have different result)
* will it affect my battery life
* is it free, freemium, or free with ad. i dont mind ad but if it bugging me to much i need to reconsider

if i think the apps are perform perfectly thats the time i sell my blackberry.

[bobauckland]

yeah i'm planning to ditch BB when BBM app available on my android . but i still have to see the BBM app on my android working properly or not. my main concern for BBM android app
* is it still have D, R notification when i'm sending my message
* can i send and receive picture / file from my BBM app (Thor said it can, but we know every android have different result)
* will it affect my battery life
* is it free, freemium, or free with ad. i dont mind ad but if it bugging me to much i need to reconsider

if i think the apps are perform perfectly thats the time i sell my blackberry.

Thanks for sharing.
Good luck with your choices.

Posted via CB10

[Raestloz]

yeah i'm planning to ditch BB when BBM app available on my android . but i still have to see the BBM app on my android working properly or not. my main concern for BBM android app
* is it still have D, R notification when i'm sending my message
* can i send and receive picture / file from my BBM app (Thor said it can, but we know every android have different result)
* will it affect my battery life
* is it free, freemium, or free with ad. i dont mind ad but if it bugging me to much i need to reconsider

if i think the apps are perform perfectly thats the time i sell my blackberry.

You are one of the lucky people blessed with excessive money, so yes you can ditch BlackBerry the second BBM is available on Android and rush to a phone shop and buy an Android

However, there are people with mediocre finances that can't afford to buy a new phone every 2 years, let alone ditch their phone in an instant and rush to buy a new phone when their old phone still does what they need: BBM

That's what I'm talking about. People are hysterically saying "OMG BBM ON ANDROID! SELL SELL SELL", but really.

As for it being full featured, I doubt it. They're at the mercy of iOS and Android APIs. Perhaps they can make things work, but it will need more time than they need to build BBM for BlackBerry

Posted via CrackBerry 10

[garnok]

You are one of the lucky people blessed with excessive money, so yes you can ditch BlackBerry the second BBM is available on Android and rush to a phone shop and buy an Android

However, there are people with mediocre finances that can't afford to buy a new phone every 2 years, let alone ditch their phone in an instant and rush to buy a new phone when their old phone still does what they need: BBM

That's what I'm talking about. People are hysterically saying "OMG BBM ON ANDROID! SELL SELL SELL", but really.

As for it being full featured, I doubt it. They're at the mercy of iOS and Android APIs. Perhaps they can make things work, but it will need more time than they need to build BBM for BlackBerry

Posted via CrackBerry 10

im already have an android.

im not saying everyone else will do the same like me...but right now many people in indonesia and maybe on some place else using 2 phone BB just for BBM and another phone (iphone or android) . so when BBM apps comes out i think many will sell their BB to save money...

what i mean when BBM cross platform in indonesia there are bigger number people who migrate to another platform than they are migrate to BB .

android popularity in here are rising very quick, already have the biggest market share and yesterday i read a news samsung is the no1 vendor by sales in here. making BBM cross platform will only making people migrate much quicker

[MarsupilamiX]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_(application)
"Market share
As of November, 2012, Line claimed more than 74 million users worldwide.[10]
As of January 18, 2013, Line had reached 100 million users worldwide and reportedly was gaining about 400,000 users daily.[11]
As of 2 May 2013, Line had reached 150 million users worldwide.[12] [13]"

http://www.techinasia.com/blackberry...going-to-lose/
"According to a report from Arbitron Mobile, Line is currently the number one messaging app in Indonesia. While WeChat is gaining around 90,000 new users by the day in the country thanks to its new national TV ads. KakaoTalk, meanwhile, recently reported that it had increased its user numbers by 288 percent from January to February.

Most of my friends, who are mostly in the middle-income bracket, don?t really care about the new Blackberry 10 handset. They prefer other platforms like Android and iOS. The middle class segment of society represents quite a lot of people who have considerable buying power.

?)The allure of Android

So what will happen? The new Blackberry Z10 in Indonesia is battling against the Samsung Galaxy S3 (soon to be the S4, which will be launched later this month) and iPhone 5 for the country?s wealthier users. But they?re the minority of the populace here anyway. The majority of the population, who are in the lower-income demographic,would opt to purchase more affordable Android devices because they see that the OS, together with its apps? ecosystem and games, outperforms Blackberry handsets in the same price range. Or perhaps they?ll buy older Blackberry models since there?s nothing for BB10 available at the usual cheap prices of below $200.

These people, targeted by national TV ads by Line and WeChat, will start to use those apps and find them more fun (so long as they switch to using those apps on Android or iPhone) than BBM."


http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/11/indonesia-tv-ads/
"Indonesia is becoming one of the most important battlegrounds for players like WeChat and Line?and TV ads are a surprising but effective part of their artillery. Though the country currently has one of the lowest Internet penetration rates in Southeast Asia, a large and youthful population (27% of its 242.3 million people is 14 or younger), and rapid mobile Internet usage growthmeans there is plenty of potential there for tech companies"

http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-rel...192939591.html
^
Some numbers for line use.

Meant to illustrate that a long term user base erosion is already in place in these emerging countries.

Used to show that BlackBerry would have lost more customers anyway, if they did not innovate.

With Line and the other chat apps out there it was only a question of when BBM will become irrelevant in these countries as well.
At least they have a fighting chance now.

I may also add, that what we see now in emerging countries, with BlackBerry becoming more irrelevant, is something we already saw happening in "the first world".
The scenario is pretty much the same.
And the only thing that will give BlackBerry the possibility to not face irrelevancy in these countries as well, will be a combination of an OS that people don't hate and a good ecosystem.

That is BB10.
This OS is the only thing that can attract long term sales. Not BBM.

What also has to be said, is that BlackBerry apparently doesn't even try, to compete with 100$ Android devices on their new QNX Hardware.

Posted via CB10

[a1s2d3f4g5]

I am concerned that this is not the right move for BlackBerry. You will see a huge erosion in subscriber count and service revenues starting q3. I hope they have plans in place to make money off the new BBM users. This is the first time I have been really concerned as a BBRY shareholder in the last two years.

In my opinion it would have been a much better move to release BBM only for BES10 customers on other platforms. Now they are going to start burning through cash by end of year, unless they have some clever tactics for BBM advertising up their sleeves.

Posted via CB10

[a1s2d3f4g5]

One more point - considering that apps are extremely crucial to bbrys value proposition right now, I don't understand making one of the main drivers of early BB10 adoption non exclusive right before the q5 is released. For every million BB10 subscribers BlackBerry gets a crucial new app. Will have an even more uphill battle now against ios and droid to make bbworld a revenue driver.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

My Android and Iphone buddies have no interest in Blackberry thus no interest in BBM either ( Canada) .

[MarsupilamiX]

I am concerned that this is not the right move for BlackBerry. You will see a huge erosion in subscriber count and service revenues starting q3. I hope they have plans in place to make money off the new BBM users. This is the first time I have been really concerned as a BBRY shareholder in the last two years.

In my opinion it would have been a much better move to release BBM only for BES10 customers on other platforms. Now they are going to start burning through cash by end of year, unless they have some clever tactics for BBM advertising up their sleeves.

Posted via CB10

If your worries are bigger now, than they were before BlackBerry introduced QNX devices, or before BlackBerry decided to go with the times, you should probably review your skills in analysing an enterprise you own shares of, or you should change your broker.

BlackBerry was and is still a gamble.
The erosion of sales would have happened anyway, if the new devices and services are not enticing enough for the consumer.
The low cost market still has the legacy devices.

If anything, BlackBerry is in a better position now, than it was before. Another conclusion can only be drawn, if the investor did not understand in what situation BlackBerry was at the moment he invested.

One more point - considering that apps are extremely crucial to bbrys value proposition right now, I don't understand making one of the main drivers of early BB10 adoption non exclusive right before the q5 is released. For every million BB10 subscribers BlackBerry gets a crucial new app. Will have an even more uphill battle now against ios and droid to make bbworld a revenue driver.

And no, read my other post.

BBM is NOT a real factor for early adopters.
With 5% global marketshare for BBRY, BBM is inexistant for most users...
Logical fallacy.

[Raestloz]

im already have an android.

im not saying everyone else will do the same like me...but right now many people in indonesia and maybe on some place else using 2 phone BB just for BBM and another phone (iphone or android) . so when BBM apps comes out i think many will sell their BB to save money...

what i mean when BBM cross platform in indonesia there are bigger number people who migrate to another platform than they are migrate to BB .

android popularity in here are rising very quick, already have the biggest market share and yesterday i read a news samsung is the no1 vendor by sales in here. making BBM cross platform will only making people migrate much quicker

You already don't like BlackBerry enough to ditch it the moment BBM comes out, don't you think this is a good move from BlackBerry?

BlackBerry doesn't make much money from BlackBerry 7 devices anyway, they start to rake in money from BlackBerry 10 devices. Since those who don't want BlackBerry 10 will not generate much revenue anyway, best to take advantage of their social mind and start to push BBM to them.

BlackBerry is pushing the new, BIS-less infrastructure in the long run, so BIS revenue isn't going to be the go-to option. I think this is a good move from BlackBerry now that I think about it. Those who are stuck with BBM won't upgrade to BlackBerry 10, so why even bother keeping them in? Have them spread the BlackBerry brand via BBM and voila! Free brand awareness campaign

Posted via CrackBerry 10

[garnok]

You already don't like BlackBerry enough to ditch it the moment BBM comes out, don't you think this is a good move from BlackBerry?

BlackBerry doesn't make much money from BlackBerry 7 devices anyway, they start to rake in money from BlackBerry 10 devices. Since those who don't want BlackBerry 10 will not generate much revenue anyway, best to take advantage of their social mind and start to push BBM to them.

BlackBerry is pushing the new, BIS-less infrastructure in the long run, so BIS revenue isn't going to be the go-to option. I think this is a good move from BlackBerry now that I think about it. Those who are stuck with BBM won't upgrade to BlackBerry 10, so why even bother keeping them in? Have them spread the BlackBerry brand via BBM and voila! Free brand awareness campaign

Posted via CrackBerry 10

yes i will sell blackberry when BBM apps are available on android and if its working properly

its not like i hate blackberry. i am quite enjoy using blackberry i used it mainly for BBM because i have more than 100 contacts (friends and business), and push email. i am quite surprised when android can match blackberry push email and when BBM apps are available i think it is more reasonable move to android only smart phone.

it can save me from buying two data plan at once (BB + regular data plan), and with extra money from selling my blackberry i think i can using it to buying something else. plus you know android are "big phone" having two phone at once in my pocket are not that comfortable

yeah right now blackberry main focus are BB10 but they have to becareful many (if its not majority) people who buying BB10 come from legacy device (where many stuck to bb because their BBM) so when BB cross platform it will releasing them to choose between BB10 or another platform

[Raestloz]

For the same token, BlackBerry 10.2 will have Android 4.2.2, and while it won't mean you have access to the entirety of Play Store, it does open up possibilities that you have better compatibility with more Android apps.

It's not for the casuals, Android runtime was meant to make it easier for developers to port (read: not do much for) their apps to run on BlackBerry 10.

However, with a little creativity, you can get more.




Oh, who am I kidding. You don't want BlackBerry, go and do what you want, no shackles

Posted via CrackBerry 10

[garnok]

For the same token, BlackBerry 10.2 will have Android 4.2.2, and while it won't mean you have access to the entirety of Play Store, it does open up possibilities that you have better compatibility with more Android apps.

It's not for the casuals, Android runtime was meant to make it easier for developers to port (read: not do much for) their apps to run on BlackBerry 10.

However, with a little creativity, you can get more.




Oh, who am I kidding. You don't want BlackBerry, go and do what you want, no shackles

Posted via CrackBerry 10

i will consider BB10 if it can play apps from the playstore as good as native android device and offer a low end 3G BB 10 (many android and wp 8 with much cheaper price can give 3G to their device) and have good enough specs

and if its have decent size as small as Curve but more slim to fit my pocket with android phone at once it will be a plus.

the BB 10 using same data plan like android and iphone so its cheaper if you can manage your internet usage ( only 2.5 usd for 600mb a month enough for chat or basic email)

[takeo]

To add some fuel to my discussion, here is some interesting reactions from Indonesian users on the news of BBM going multi-platform...
most are saying: Byebye BlackBerry.

https://twitter.com/search?q=http%3A...ke-ios-android

[bobauckland]

i will consider BB10 if it can play apps from the playstore as good as native android device and offer a low end 3G BB 10 (many android and wp 8 with much cheaper price can give 3G to their device) and have good enough specs

and if its have decent size as small as Curve but more slim to fit my pocket with android phone at once it will be a plus.

the BB 10 using same data plan like android and iphone so its cheaper if you can manage your internet usage ( only 2.5 usd for 600mb a month enough for chat or basic email)

And this is why it's pointless for the new BlackBerry to target you.
You will 'consider' BB10 if they put out a cheap POS low end device to compete with cheap POS devices made by Android and compete in a race to the bottom.
Not a lot of margins there. Google make up their money through software.
BlackBerry aren't targetting you as a user at this point in time.

Which is great for me, as a very different sort of user.
Nokia is still the king of cheap low end POS devices in the developing world, isn't it?
Fat lot of good it's doing their bottom line.

[bobauckland]

To add some fuel to my discussion, here is some interesting reactions from Indonesian users on the news of BBM going multi-platform...
most are saying: Byebye BlackBerry.

https://twitter.com/search?q=http%3A...ke-ios-android

Let's see when it actually happens.
As my esteemed colleague has pointed out, repeatedly, Line is growing like crazy in Indonesia.
As I have pointed out, the super low end market is not where BlackBerry is now positioning itself.
I would also point out, I don't think a lot of these users know what's happening and what giving up their BlackBerry would mean. I think the Z10 is a great virtual keyboard. If I had 300+ IM contacts would I use a virtual keyboard to rapidly chat with all of them? No chance.
You know who does physical keyboards for real hardcore messaging like no one else?
I'll let you figure it out.

[takeo]

Let's see when it actually happens.
As my esteemed colleague has pointed out, repeatedly, Line is growing like crazy in Indonesia.
As I have pointed out, the super low end market is not where BlackBerry is now positioning itself.
I would also point out, I don't think a lot of these users know what's happening and what giving up their BlackBerry would mean. I think the Z10 is a great virtual keyboard. If I had 300+ IM contacts would I use a virtual keyboard to rapidly chat with all of them? No chance.
You know who does physical keyboards for real hardcore messaging like no one else?
I'll let you figure it out.

You havent seen how fast Indonesians type on virtual keyboards - and how much the abbreviate. Not a single word is longer than 4-5 letters...