[the_boon]

There was never going to be a third ecosystem - the limit was always 2, just as it is on the desktop (and, no, Linux doesn't count as it isn't commercially developed). If you weren't iOS, you had to BEAT Android if you wanted to survive - and to beat Android, you had to have an existing and popular set of cloud services already that could be integrated into the OS, and a huge set of developer partners, etc. MS was really the only other player that could have possibly competed - they had everything they needed - but they insisted it had to be WINDOWS, and were obsesses with being able to run Win32 apps. That is what killed them - that was a pipe dream then and it's still a pipe dream now - plus, desktop apps with tiny mouse touch zones were never going to be viable on a mobile device. MS's idea was that all of the existing Windows apps would be able to run on the phone, and that never made any sense at all.

It's always harder for established players to handle a major disruption. Look at the auto industry - Ford *might* survive, but GM is absolutely going to go bankrupt - the REAL, PERMANENT kind, and Stellantis (the parent company of Chrysler/Jeep) is nearly bankrupt now, and isn't likely to exist in 2 years. Nissan is DEAD, Honda is dead-man-walking and even Toyota probably won't survive. Even VW's future is far from certain. All of these companies THOUGHT they had a couple of decades to transition to EVs, but EVs are what everyone wants (well, Teslas are what everyone wants, but many will be satisfied with a different EV), and the car companies are JUST starting to take that seriously. Meanwhile, demand for gas cars has fallen off a cliff (and many established makers are still talking about how profits from gas cars will pay for their EV transition... LOL) and they've all got years worth of back-orders for EVs - except only Tesla has access to the raw materials needed to make batteries in that quantity, and there's not enough left on the market to satisfy 5% of the remaining demand - which means all the other companies are going to be constrained for a DECADE before any new supply kicks in. Will they even survive that long? Most will not - and Tesla is building factories and ramping up production as fast as it can. Tesla is already Apple, and is starting to become Android too - and that's absolutely NOT good for anyone else.

I would certainly not want to own stock in any of those established car companies. Even Ford - who has at least publicly recognized how bad a position they're in, and are actually working hard to fix it - is in for some very difficult times. Those guys are the Nokia, Eriksson, Palm, and BB of the car business.

But it's not just them - you also have Freightliner, Peterbilt, Kenworth, etc. - they only survive as long as it takes Tesla to built factories and spool up production of their Semi, and then they're dead too. They're a decade or more behind the curve just in hardware, and EVs live and die by software. Think established trucking manufacturers have it within them to build world-class programming staff? Me neither.

VW has massive parking lots - over 160 days worth of inventory - of VW ID3s and ID4s that they can't sell because their software is crap. 18 months after release, and it's actually worse than it was on release day, so they've just recently partnered with China (!) so they can get help with their software. And none of them are designed for over-the-air updates, so they all have to go back to the dealer to be re-flashed. You'd think it was 2002 instead of 2022.

I think you're way overestimating EV demand and underestimating the infrastructure it takes to make them viable.

The world is gonna need a heck of a lot more charging stations everywhere for this to remotely be a smooth transition from combustion engines.
If everyone would buy a Tesla tomorrow, the current power grids would melt down as they wouldn't be able to draw enough power to run the existing infrastructure AND all these new, battery chugging cars.

Not to mention a whole lot of mechanics trained in fixing them, which there currently is not. Tesla is absolutely overwhelmed with repair/maintenance orders. A family member has one, and he was given a loaner Tesla for like over two months because it took them that long to fix it, after a very minor bumper crash.

Also, mining the lithium to make all these gigantic EV batteries is not green at all and pollutes quite a bit. Hydrogen fuel cars would be a much cleaner solution if the hydrogen can be generated fairly easily. The car would convert the hydrogen cells to power an electric motor. And fillip would be as fast as current gas station times, as opposed to much longer even with a "super fast" charger.

[idssteve]

Defining BBOS "success" by device sales is like defining Hertz Car Rental "success" by car sales. Imo. Fwiw.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Defining BBOS "success" by device sales is like defining Hertz Car Rental "success" by car sales. Imo. Fwiw.

To me sucess is defined by a product or companies ability to grow and move forward....

I know you think BlackBerry gave up on BBOS too soon, either way it was a dead end, and that's not sucess. I'll grant you that as a business BlackBerry would have been better off without BB10, and sticking with BBOS. But there was no path to sucess there....

Same reason western markets abandoned BlackBerry in 2008 - 2010, would have followed BlackBerry's short term expansion in "developing" markets in 2010 - 2012.

[idssteve]

To me sucess is defined by a product or companies ability to grow and move forward....

I know you think BlackBerry gave up on BBOS too soon, either way it was a dead end, and that's not sucess. I'll grant you that as a business BlackBerry would have been better off without BB10, and sticking with BBOS. But there was no path to sucess there....

Same reason western markets abandoned BlackBerry in 2008 - 2010, would have followed BlackBerry's short term expansion in "developing" markets in 2010 - 2012.

Lol... However "success" is defined. At MY age, "success" might define as waking up each morning? Lol. Survival itself might define "success" ?? lol

Some few of us were on BIS a year ago. Clearly Chen wouldn't have continued if much red ink? If ANY?

The rail cars of red ink poured into BB10 were the failure. BBOS never suffered red, afaik? It was killed off and loyal customers were pushed off... in desperate effort to coerce migration? THAT effort proved a SMASHING "success", imo. At kicking loyal customers to every other platform BUT BB10... Imo.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Lol... However "success" is defined. At MY age, "success" might define as waking up each morning? Lol. Survival itself might define "success" ?? lol

But that's it... BBOS wouldn't have allowed for survival.

More likly, by not announcing a change in 2010 to QNX, it would have force business to move on sooner. And it would have caused the stock to crash (more than it did) and provided an opening for a large buyer to step in when there was still billions in cash and assets, when the name still meant something, and it was still believed the patents were worth something. And most of all companies still believed more than two platforms could co-exist in smartphones. Now that buyer would have canned BBOS and PKB phones, just a BlackBerry did... as there was no viable market there.

But even if they stuck it out on their own... it would have been a downward spiral with no bottom. By 2015 they'd still be gone from smartphones.

[idssteve]

But that's it... BBOS wouldn't have allowed for survival.

More likly, by not announcing a change in 2010 to QNX, it would have force business to move on sooner. And it would have caused the stock to crash (more than it did) and provided an opening for a large buyer to step in when there was still billions in cash and assets, when the name still meant something, and it was still believed the patents were worth something. And most of all companies still believed more than two platforms could co-exist in smartphones. Now that buyer would have canned BBOS and PKB phones, just a BlackBerry did... as there was no viable market there.

But even if they stuck it out on their own... it would have been a downward spiral with no bottom. By 2015 they'd still be gone from smartphones.

Pretty credible predictions. Sorta like polling vs actual elections? Loll.. BBOS was never permitted to suffer a natural demise. In fact, the stock crash that hit ME most was after coCEO stupidly prematurely announced BBOS' EOL! 2011. About within a month of 9900 launch?

Yes, I get that BBOS didn't do Apple. And folks like you dearly wanted Apple OR Apple killer? You got Storm. Lmao.

SOME of us, including quite a few companies I worked with and around, found BBOS/BES/BIS and associated hardware, to be perfectly suited for OUR use case. It, in fact, evolved with our use case. A decidedly non-apple use case. Heck, if we wanted Apple all we had to do was get Apple? I STILL converse with ppl around the globe who STILL miss their Bolds. NOT because of some stupid "nostalgia". These are bright and SUCCESSFUL business ppl who KNOW what works best for their use case. Bold did the things they wanted. Bold was ripped from their hands. NOthing "willing" about it.

Enough for RIM et al to have made Apple/Google style "success"? Absolutely not. Enough to have enjoyed subsistence level survival a few more years? Even through last year? ?? Who knows? Pollsters? Lmao.

[Yamahammer]

Sorry, Platinum, but that's not the reality. EVs have HUGE backorders (Tesla has over 2M backorders for the Cybertruck alone - where people have put down deposits - and it won't even be made until next year, and it could be 2+ years until they're delivered). It's true that public charging networks (non-Tesla ones especially) need work, but they're actually growing quite quickly - and Tesla's network is already extremely robust, and new locations are popping up about 20 per week in the US and about 80 per week worldwide.

As far as power, Tesla is starting to build charging stations with solar power and battery banks so they will use zero grid power and will continue to work when the grid is down (earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.). They were unable to do this previously because of battery constraints, but they've got those sorted out.

The Tesla Model Y is currently the #7 vehicle sold in the US and climbing rapidly - and the US is actually one of its worst-performing markets (mostly because large trucks and truck-based SUVs are so popular here) - it's the #1 selling car in 11 countries currently, with the Model 3 being #2 or #3 in many of those countries.

The reality is that gas car sales are WAY down, and backorders for EVs are WAY up. Obviously Teslas aren't the only brand on the market, though they have a BIG lead in a lot of areas. But Ford has 1.5 million orders for the Lightning, and 750K for the Mustang Mach-E. GM has backorders for the Hummer EV, but their EVs have been so bad, and they've produced so few of them other than the Bolt - which ALL had to be recalled and have their battery packs replaced - that they aren't being taken seriously at the moment.

But make no mistake - the consumer interest in EVs is HUGE - far in excess of the current supply. And the other thing most people don't realize is that MOST EV charging takes place at home, at night, and most people rarely use public charging at all unless they're on a trip.

I'll be honest - I'm actually hesitant to personally buy an EV, but I've been paying close attention to the car markets, and the fact is that consumer attitudes have changed amazingly quickly, and a crazy amount of people are absolutely prepared to spend large amounts of money to get one - in part because the overall cost-of-ownership is much lower. The arguments you made were valid as little as 3 years ago, but it's a VERY different game in 2022, especially for Tesla owners. People have driven Teslas to the northern tip of Alaska - about the most remote part of the US - and were able to charge and drive just fine - and the Tesla charging network literally improves daily. It's really the other brands that have a problem - and will have to start investing in public charging to compete.

There were a couple of years when people said "oh, most people don't need a smartphone and aren't going to spend $800 just to make phone calls." Do you think that's been true since, oh, 2014? Hint: I see 8-year-olds carrying $1200 smartphones today.

Tesla has done what it's done with only 2 car plants, and they're ramping up production in 2 more right now and they're starting work to build another 2. The (Tesla-especially) EV trickle is very quickly becoming a flood.

Nice to see someone understanding and accepting what's happening. We needed your input in the Zero Emission Vehicles thread before it was locked down.....

[app_Developer]

It's becoming pretty common here that EV's are a third or a half of the vehicles at the red light. I would agree with Troy that adoption is moving along pretty well.

As he said, projections for EV sales are definitely limited by *supply*, not by demand at all. Especially in China!

I live in a close suburb to a major capital city. It's not normal for us to drive very long distances. My wife has an EV now and the range in reality for her is a week of use, with significant reserve. The car is totally fun to drive in and around town (where instant torque is such a nice feature). It also works very well as a luxury car because it's dead quiet. It's really quite a practical answer to the case.

For people who live in more rural areas, it would be more difficult I think. But most people worldwide live in and around cities. So for most of the customer base, they will be quite happy with the current models.

(I am a car enthusiast, so I still have a bunch of gas powered cars. But car enthusiasts like me are also a very small part of the customer base. Tiny, really. People like my wife are the main focus for most car companies.)

[conite]

Pretty credible predictions. Sorta like polling vs actual elections? Loll.. BBOS was never permitted to suffer a natural demise. In fact, the stock crash that hit ME most was after coCEO stupidly prematurely announced BBOS' EOL! 2011. About within a month of 9900 launch?

Yes, I get that BBOS didn't do Apple. And folks like you dearly wanted Apple OR Apple killer? You got Storm. Lmao.

SOME of us, including quite a few companies I worked with and around, found BBOS/BES/BIS and associated hardware, to be perfectly suited for OUR use case. It, in fact, evolved with our use case. A decidedly non-apple use case. Heck, if we wanted Apple all we had to do was get Apple? I STILL converse with ppl around the globe who STILL miss their Bolds. NOT because of some stupid "nostalgia". These are bright and SUCCESSFUL business ppl who KNOW what works best for their use case. Bold did the things they wanted. Bold was ripped from their hands. NOthing "willing" about it.

Enough for RIM et al to have made Apple/Google style "success"? Absolutely not. Enough to have enjoyed subsistence level survival a few more years? Even through last year? ?? Who knows? Pollsters? Lmao.

BBOS did die naturally. It was essentially non-existent outside of Indonesia post 2009.

[idssteve]

BBOS did die naturally. It was essentially non-existent outside of Indonesia post 2009.

Lol... "essentially non-existent" by Apple standards? Essentially essential for us "essentially non-existent" users it was designed around. Till 2022 for SOME of us. "Essentially non-existent" as we might be. Lol

[Platinum_2]

Sorry, Platinum, but that's not the reality. EVs have HUGE backorders (Tesla has over 2M backorders for the Cybertruck alone - where people have put down deposits - and it won't even be made until next year, and it could be 2+ years until they're delivered). It's true that public charging networks (non-Tesla ones especially) need work, but they're actually growing quite quickly - and Tesla's network is already extremely robust, and new locations are popping up about 20 per week in the US and about 80 per week worldwide.

As far as power, Tesla is starting to build charging stations with solar power and battery banks so they will use zero grid power and will continue to work when the grid is down (earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.). They were unable to do this previously because of battery constraints, but they've got those sorted out.

The Tesla Model Y is currently the #7 vehicle sold in the US and climbing rapidly - and the US is actually one of its worst-performing markets (mostly because large trucks and truck-based SUVs are so popular here) - it's the #1 selling car in 11 countries currently, with the Model 3 being #2 or #3 in many of those countries.

The reality is that gas car sales are WAY down, and backorders for EVs are WAY up. Obviously Teslas aren't the only brand on the market, though they have a BIG lead in a lot of areas. But Ford has 1.5 million orders for the Lightning, and 750K for the Mustang Mach-E. GM has backorders for the Hummer EV, but their EVs have been so bad, and they've produced so few of them other than the Bolt - which ALL had to be recalled and have their battery packs replaced - that they aren't being taken seriously at the moment.

But make no mistake - the consumer interest in EVs is HUGE - far in excess of the current supply. And the other thing most people don't realize is that MOST EV charging takes place at home, at night, and most people rarely use public charging at all unless they're on a trip.

I'll be honest - I'm actually hesitant to personally buy an EV, but I've been paying close attention to the car markets, and the fact is that consumer attitudes have changed amazingly quickly, and a crazy amount of people are absolutely prepared to spend large amounts of money to get one - in part because the overall cost-of-ownership is much lower. The arguments you made were valid as little as 3 years ago, but it's a VERY different game in 2022, especially for Tesla owners. People have driven Teslas to the northern tip of Alaska - about the most remote part of the US - and were able to charge and drive just fine - and the Tesla charging network literally improves daily. It's really the other brands that have a problem - and will have to start investing in public charging to compete.

There were a couple of years when people said "oh, most people don't need a smartphone and aren't going to spend $800 just to make phone calls." Do you think that's been true since, oh, 2014? Hint: I see 8-year-olds carrying $1200 smartphones today.

Tesla has done what it's done with only 2 car plants, and they're ramping up production in 2 more right now and they're starting work to build another 2. The (Tesla-especially) EV trickle is very quickly becoming a flood.

While some of what you say is indeed true, not every wants an EV. For many reasons of their own reasons.

[Yamahammer]

While some of what you say is indeed true, not every wants an EV. For many reasons of their own reasons.

Well for most western democracies by 2035 it's not going to be a choice to want a dinocar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-...cles#Countries

[conite]

Lol... "essentially non-existent" by Apple standards? Essentially essential for us "essentially non-existent" users it was designed around. Till 2022 for SOME of us. "Essentially non-existent" as we might be. Lol

By any standards. Well below the limits of making them remotely viable.

Without the hope of what QNX might have brought, BlackBerry would have closed its device business in 2011 - which they should have done.

[Yamahammer]

So to turn it back towards the topic, buying an ICE car in 2035 will be like buying a BBOS phone in 2011.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

So to turn it back towards the topic, buying an ICE car in 2035 will be like buying a BBOS phone in 2011.

I'm not sure it's going to be all the easy to buy a "new" ICE car in 2035, it was still easy to buy a BBOS BlackBerry and use it in 2011...

While ICE Cars will likly be around for a long time, I'm not sure where regulations will be on their sale at that point. Nor where pricing will be between EV's and ICE Cars. Today one has some advantages on price and range, but those might not exist in a few years...

[Yamahammer]

I'm not sure it's going to be all the easy to buy a "new" ICE car in 2035, it was still easy to buy a BBOS BlackBerry and use it in 2011...

While ICE Cars will likly be around for a long time, I'm not sure where regulations will be on their sale at that point. Nor where pricing will be between EV's and ICE Cars. Today one has some advantages on price and range, but those might not exist in a few years...

I'm not going to waste my time debating the fact that most of the developed world including all the carmakers have committed to phasing out the sales of ICE cars by 2035.

"The CB 1M Challenge, where the pantless people go"

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I'm not going to waste my time debating the fact that most of the developed world including all the carmakers have committed to phasing out the sales of ICE cars by 2035.

"The CB 1M Challenge, where the pantless people go"

Isn't that what I said...

[Yamahammer]

Isn't that what I said...

You "weren't sure". All's good now that you have clarified that as of 2035 sales of new ICE cars will be illegal.

"The CB 1M Challenge, where the pantless people go"

[joeldf]

You "weren't sure". All's good now that you have clarified that as of 2035 sales of new ICE cars will be illegal.

"The CB 1M Challenge, where the pantless people go"

I just hope they have the things like servicing figured out by then such that buying replacement parts once you're out of warranty like one of the electric motors isn't $2,500, or a replacement battery for $15,000 or more.

That will be my concern.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Anyway... BlackBerry had a great product back in 2007, sadly they no longer exist as a device manufacture.

[idssteve]

Bold's were still great products in January 2022... for a mission they were designed for. Imo. Apple rewrote the mission, 2007. That did NOT make Bold's perform their mission any less proficiently. My Bold, January 2022, STILL exchanged SMS collaboration with literally hundreds of ppl. 24/7. Realtime. While simultaneously living a life. A truly nonstop active life. A life "... In Motion"? Lol..

NO part of THAT mission has changed. Nor has ANY device since 2011 challenged 9900's proficiency at THAT mission. Imo. In my pretty researched opinion. Believe it or not, myself and many in my circles do NOT enjoy using an eol 10+ years old device. We would NOT do it IF something "modern" could do the mission we value.. Even half as well?

[joeldf]

I suppose if you go back to the original question - I think the success that came to BlackBerry early on had more to do with the development of BES, and it's incorporation in the email servers of big corporations, government agencies, and college and university systems. It allowed all those mid and upper level management guys to send out emails all hours of the day and night. The keyboard was just all you really had for that level of text input. The T9 keyboard just wouldn't do it.

BIS extended that success by allowing commercial use by individuals not on those BES servers to still use those iconic devices. They could enjoy much of what the big-wigs enjoyed about the devices.

BBM was probably more of and afterthought from users in the beginning. That got to be it's own thing later.

Losing that success was because of all kinds of different factors accumulating over only a few years. Much of it was gone by the time BB10 came out because most of those initial corporate/government/collegiate users had moved on.

In my own experience, the firm I worked with had BES added to their in-house MS Exchange email server - and we were an architecture firm with only about 20 people at the time and only the partners and managers got paid-for BlackBerrys. They had it for about 3 years.

Then, the iPhone 3G came out with integrated Exchange Active Sync in the email app.

I can tell you that it took the firm partners all of 5 seconds to decide to drop BES and those BlackBerry phones and get themselves all iPhones. The reason? Cost of maintaining that BES license. Only one of the partners stayed with his Bold for another year (I think they kept a single user, or minimum, or whatever license going), but even he had to move on. The operating cost was just too much. Some of those partners where the kind that pinched every penny they could, so if there was no more use for something - away it went. This was a firm that was around the middle-range in size in town. A lot of firms were using BES at the time because architects tend to run around a lot to different job sites, presenting to clients, looking for new projects...

(Architecture is one of those businesses where you work your way out of a job all the time - you pick up a project, and you work it until it's done. When a project is complete, your income has ended. So you are always looking for that next project to keep income coming in, even while working on something already - you can't have "down time".)

I can't say that if BlackBerry had adopted to that change sooner, that things would be different. But not adopting EAS natively way before BB10 in 2013 certainly did not help.

[spARTacus]

I suppose if you go back to the original question - I think the success that came to BlackBerry early on had more to do with....

If one goes back to the original question, then wasn't it just simply that no one else was yet doing email to phones (and enterprise email also at that) in the way RIM started doing it, which allowed what they were doing (once they got beyond pagers with keyboards) to take off like a bat out of hell in terms of everyone wanting a Blackberry device, what was coined as a "smart phone"?

[app_Developer]

If one goes back to the original question, then wasn't it just simply that no one else was yet doing email to phones (and enterprise email also at that) in the way RIM started doing it, which allowed what they were doing (once they got beyond pagers with keyboards) to take off like a bat out of hell in terms of everyone wanting a Blackberry device, what was coined as a "smart phone"?

yes, and as a business for BB (RIMM) it worked really well because they collected those lucrative, high margin usage fees for almost every phone they sold.

Then push email and encryption were commoditized and available for no additional cost on Exchange, and cloud email providers, and so the entire business of charging people specifically for always-on encrypted email just disappeared. They were a high cost razor provider who depended on blade sales, when the blades were now available in the market for free.

BB/RIMM was never a large enough company to compete on the phone sales themselves (without the service fees), and they failed to develop other services that would have given them recurring fees.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

If one goes back to the original question, then wasn't it just simply that no one else was yet doing email to phones (and enterprise email also at that) in the way RIM started doing it, which allowed what they were doing (once they got beyond pagers with keyboards) to take off like a bat out of hell in terms of everyone wanting a Blackberry device, what was coined as a "smart phone"?

Yeah it comes down to WHEN you look at BlackBerry.

100% Email and Management got the ball rolling in Enterprise and Prosumers... and BlackBerry was successful with their 2 - 4 million units per quarter by 2007.

But their real sucess came with consumers, and specifically with developing markets... in the 2010 - 2011 time frame when they were moving more phones a quarter than the did in a whole year back in 2007. At that point I think it really was BBM and BlackBerry Data plans that were driving sales and sucess in those markets.

But in the end their real sucess, centered on Subscriber Access Fees... the hardware was just an ends to the means.