[bkadirbeyoglu]

I am an experienced BlackBerry developer who intends to start up a company focused on BlackBerry 10 development. As we all know, BlackBerry is not having her best times, and the future is uncertain, at best.

I wonder how many BlackBerry 10 users are there in the whole world, and more importantly, how many would be a minimum figure that would make investing on a company reasonable? 5 millions, 10 millions? And how long would it take to reach that minimum? Any opinions, suggestions are welcome.

[Branta]

The uptake of your products and margin on sales will be the major break point. It doesn't help if you have 10m device users and only 0.01% software customers @ $0.99 each. On the other hand 10m device users on a must-have app which gets 10% uptake @$5 each is probably going to cover the cost of development and marketing, and leave a substantial war chest for the next project..

[Rolf Hed]

Approximately how many BB10 users are there? I think that there are 60/65+ million BBM users (a figure that gets cited a lot on CB), but this is BBOS and BB10, right? (Or am I wrong? lol)

[gogurt48]

Another thing to consider is whether the user base is growing or shrinking. Even if there are enough users today to justify your dev company, there might not be tomorrow if the user base is shrinking. Also, you need to make an educated guess as to the future of BB10 itself. You don't want to find yourself developing for a platform that won't exist in a year or two if BlackBerry decides to abandon it (a distinct possibility given its commercial failure).

I know I sound negative, but business decisions need to be made in the harsh light of reality, and not based on what we wish for, or hope for.

[Meaty123]

Question is, how BB10 users are there and are the legacy users will be upgrading to the new OS? Cuz by the looks of it, BlackBerry users will pay for decent and well built apps (esp on games). Native runs better than ports. I'm not sure if they will run better on 10.2.1 when it comes out.

Sent from the best touch keyboard, the Z.

[ajst222]

I don't think there should be a set number but instead just proof that BB10 devices are selling and that BlackBerry is gaining market share and turning a profit. However, I don't see much incentive for devs to even develop anymore now with 10.2.1 and the whole sideload situation as it appears that BlackBerry has given up on their ecosystem.



I personally don't think that they ever should have focused on that. I wish that they could have put the efforts into getting devs on board creating quality native apps. Sideloads aren't a solution for the app gap, just an excuse.



Sent from my Nokia Lumia 928 using Tapatalk

[bkadirbeyoglu]

Another thing to consider is whether the user base is growing or shrinking. Even if there are enough users today to justify your dev company, there might not be tomorrow if the user base is shrinking. Also, you need to make an educated guess as to the future of BB10 itself. You don't want to find yourself developing for a platform that won't exist in a year or two if BlackBerry decides to abandon it (a distinct possibility given its commercial failure).

I know I sound negative, but business decisions need to be made in the harsh light of reality, and not based on what we wish for, or hope for.

Thanks, and that's exactly why I asked for actual numbers or estimates of how many BB10 users are there in the world, and whether that number is going to exceed (let's say) 5 millions at the end of 2013...

[soren203]

I would love to get in on the action, if your looking for people! :P

[Anonymous2039]

Another thing to consider is whether the user base is growing or shrinking. Even if there are enough users today to justify your dev company, there might not be tomorrow if the user base is shrinking. Also, you need to make an educated guess as to the future of BB10 itself. You don't want to find yourself developing for a platform that won't exist in a year or two if BlackBerry decides to abandon it (a distinct possibility given its commercial failure).

I know I sound negative, but business decisions need to be made in the harsh light of reality, and not based on what we wish for, or hope for.

Right now, the BB10 user base is growing, albeit at a very slow rate. More people have BB10 phones today than two months ago.

OP: If you're going to be doing this as your primary income, you'd better make sure your applications are extremely well built. I mean bulletproof and bug-free and that they actually fill a need. What kind of applications do you intend on producing?

Posted via CB10

[howarmat]

there will probably be 7-8 million BB10 users by the end of the year in my estimate. But like mentioned it will depend on the apps you make, how much you charge etc to know if it will be wise to start your business now.

[bkadirbeyoglu]

there will probably be 7-8 million BB10 users by the end of the year in my estimate. But like mentioned it will depend on the apps you make, how much you charge etc to know if it will be wise to start your business now.

Well, 7-8 millions at the end of 2013 and surpassing 10 millions in the first quarter of 2014 would be OK for me

[bkadirbeyoglu]

Right now, the BB10 user base is growing, albeit at a very slow rate. More people have BB10 phones today than two months ago.

OP: If you're going to be doing this as your primary income, you'd better make sure your applications are extremely well built. I mean bulletproof and bug-free and that they actually fill a need. What kind of applications do you intend on producing?

Posted via CB10

I intend to produce both consumer apps and custom business workflow apps for enterprises. I also think that there will be great opportunities in emerging technologies like Internet of Things, Bluetooth Low Energy, etc. as mentioned here:

Enterprise Mobile Computing with BlackBerry 10 Apps and the Internet of Things Protocol MQTT: Part 1 «BlackBerry Developer Blog

[LoganSix]

start up a company

Would that be a company of 1 or you and other developers?

[blackmoe]

You are asking the wrong question as others have stated and perhaps that indicates you need some basic business education. Part of creating a business plan is knowing the potential market size (and it's not total users). Are there any local incubator groups or small business resources in your area that you can approach to see what they have to offer in terms of learning how to form a business plan?

Posted via CB10

[richardat]

Another thing to consider is whether the user base is growing or shrinking. Even if there are enough users today to justify your dev company, there might not be tomorrow if the user base is shrinking. Also, you need to make an educated guess as to the future of BB10 itself. You don't want to find yourself developing for a platform that won't exist in a year or two if BlackBerry decides to abandon it (a distinct possibility given its commercial failure).

I know I sound negative, but business decisions need to be made in the harsh light of reality, and not based on what we wish for, or hope for.

Bingo. There are probably around 3 or 4 mil bb users out there but that number will shrink from here on out. So act accordingly.

For a general barometer, put it this way: there are so many big an small developers out there who also run the numbers - some of whom have vast experience and resources in the industry, what did they conclude?

[cgk]

Yeah, we might see a slight raise for a bit as they sell off cheap Z10s but the availability of the z30 is so poor that it's is unlikely to have any impact and devices like the Q5... forget about it (even here, the bastion of crackberry fans there are a total of 438 threads on the q5 - compare that to other devices).

[Brian Scheirer]

Based on my sales of my apps versus my effort/time commitment, I'd say there is already enough BB10 users out there to support a 1 man app company. You should be able to easily sell enough to support yourself. I am of course making the assumption you dev quality apps with somewhat mass appeal and do some amount of marketing.

And I am still a bit of an optimist that BB10 will survive and the user base will grow in the coming months. Not to derail this topic but the features10.2.1, if marketed correctly, can really appeal to users. Which means more potential customers if you do go ahead with plans of making a BB10 dev company.

Posted via CB10

[richardat]

Well, 7-8 millions at the end of 2013 and surpassing 10 millions in the first quarter of 2014 would be OK for me

Well it is your estimate to make. I do not think the base will grow - it will likely shrink by years end.