1. Rooster99's Avatar
    I've posted the link plus the text below, but as per suggestions in another thread, what I found interesting was :

    1) Gartner believes RIM will migrate to QBX by 2012, which seems to be the overall consensus on this site; However, mashable thinks that's aggressive - and so would be more pessimistic about RIM than Gartner, which was pretty pessimistic in the first place

    2) Gartner is predicting an iPhone decline in market share after this year, which I've read from others on this site but find tough to swallow

    3) Gartner is pretty pro-Windows phones, predicting a quadrupling in market share in the next 4 years - but that still leaves them with less than 20%

    Overall Gartner is very pro-Android, and based on their predictions everyone else is going to be an also-ran. I think mashable figures Apple is more of a contender, but still doesn't really dispute the inevitability of some degree of Android dominance. Combine the 2 and there's a consensus it's Android #1, Apple #2.

    Here's the link :
    What Will the Smartphone Market Look Like in 2015? - Yahoo! News

    Here's the text :

    What Will the Smartphone Market Look Like in 2015?

    Google and Apple are currently in a heated battle for control of the world's smartphone market, but which mobile OS will reign supreme down the road?

    That's the question research and analyst firm Gartner is trying to answer. Its most recent prediction is turning some heads, though: Microsoft Windows Phone 7 will overtake Apple iOS market share by 2015. Not only that, but Gartner believes that Android will control nearly 50% of the mobile smartphone market within two years.

    In its most recent predictions report, Gartner claims that Android will jump from 38.5% market share this year to 49.2% in 2012. That's more than double its 22.7% market share in 2010. Needless to say, it's a shocking conclusion.

    Just as mind-boggling is the conclusion that iOS will actually peak in market share this year at 19.4%, then drop to 18.9% next year and 17.2% by 2015. Windows Phone, on the other hand, will grow from 5.6% this year to 10.8% next year and eventually reach 19.5% in 2015, according to the research firm's estimates. BlackBerry is destined for a slow decline, dropping from 13.4% this year to 11.1% in 2015.

    A Window into the Future
    Of course, these are just estimates from one research firm in a very chaotic market. Case-in-point: seven months ago, Gartner predicted that Symbian would be the top OS in 2014 with 30.2% market share, Windows Phone 7 would just have 3.9% of the market in 2014, and Apple would only have 14.9%. Of course, these predictions came before Microsoft and Nokia struck their Windows Phone 7 deal, essentially dooming Symbian.

    Some of the firm's assumptions are tough to swallow as well. As Asymco points out, Gartner assumes Apple is interesting maintaining margins over increasing market share and RIM will migrate from BlackBerry OS to QNX by 2012.

    Apple though is testing cheaper phones and seems to have learned from its mistakes competing with Microsoft during the Mac vs. PC years. RIM only acquired QNX Software last year. We believe it will take more time for RIM to fully integrate QNX software into its devices. 2012 is too aggressive.

    Still, Gartner's analysis provides an interesting window into the future of mobile. Android is showing no signs of slowing down, and it's too early to tell how the Nokia-Microsoft partnership will play out. And there's always the chance of another acquisition, merger or partnership that shakes up the industry.

    - R.
    04-07-11 11:19 PM
  2. howarmat's Avatar
    i agree with Gartner on this one. Once RIM gets the PB out there i dont think its really going to need the constant attention that BBOS does. Hopefully that means they can shift their focus to extracting all the good things tablet OS into a cell phone package OS. I really hope they dont focus on OS 6.1 much at all. Sorry to all you buying into a extremely close to EOL OS but i really think RIM needs to put focus back on their super phone idea.
    04-07-11 11:26 PM