[notfanboy]

About two weeks ago, on July 16th, GadgetMasters posted a blog showing "evidence" that BlackBerry was about to surpass Android market share in Canada. Hooray!

This was the accompanying image and expanation:

Three weeks ago, we wrote that BlackBerry�s market share in Canada rose 5.75% in one month to reach 17.8% in June. At that rate, it was poised to overtake Android to become the number 2 smartphone OS in Canada.

According to StatCounter, so far in July, BlackBerry�s market share has continued to climb. In fact, it has surpassed 20% to reach 21.67%. This is only 0.9% less than Android�s 22.57%.

So for those curious to find out what happened, here is a updated graph from today. It has more detail and shows week view instead of month view. The arrow points to the approximate area in the Gadget Masters graph which they encircled.


Here is a live link to Statcounter if you want to run the graph yourself.

I won't pretend to know the reason behind that temporary glitch - a coding bug, sampling methodology change, and fraud have all been proposed as theories. All we can say for certain is that the original thesis - that BB is overtaking Android in Canada - was based on a temporary error.

The really interesting thing here is how strongly this was defended by some of the faithful. Even after it was pointed out that:

• website views have a tenuous connection to marketshare
• BB only spiked in May when it was released four months ago in Canada
• The huge spike happened in a single day

Still a few people tried to rationalize and support the theory. I remember seeing router logs being presented as evidence of ... something, I don't know exactly. In any event I hope this closes the door on irresponsible conclusions based on Statcounter. Gadget Masters should post a retraction, seeing as they have a whole series of articles based on this BS.

[Elite1]

Sounds like their system is flawed enough to avoid any real conclusion. Why believe the most recent weeks' charting either?

[LazyEvul]

Statcounter is a very flawed way of calculating market share, for reasons that have been discussed numerous times on these forums before. Last I saw, more reliable indicators seemed to suggest that BlackBerry was still a fair bit behind Android, but very solidly planted in 3rd place ahead of Windows Phone. I'll need to have a look for the statistics when I get home.

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[Brandon Orr]

In b4 a plethora of "can't believe the amount of vitriol and misinformation people who support BlackBerry spew" posts.

Based on the real % increase stated one had to be suspicious of almost a 200% increase in marketshare over a week. That just doesn't happen. The metrics also raise red flags considering the more a user browses the internet the higher their number goes. It's a neat stat to look at for fun, but it should always be looked at with a cautious eye. Units sold are what matter the most IMO.

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[notfanboy]

Sounds like their system is flawed enough to avoid any real conclusion. Why believe the most recent weeks' charting either?

I've been skeptical of conclusions based on StatCounter from the start, and I'm wasn't even giving credence to recent weeks charting which is why I wrote:

All we can say for certain is that the original thesis - that BB is overtaking Android in Canada - was based on a temporary error.

Unfortunately that meme "BB ahead of Android in Canada" has gained a foothold here on CB, and I've already seen it repeated in threads as if it were fact.

[Aljean Thein]

I hope that graph isn't accurate. Otherwise, BlackBerry just went down big time in Canada. Looks like a 7/8% right now

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