Facepalm... just... facepalm (shares up because Thor said he's license the software... maybe...)

RIM shares rise to 13-month high on strategic review hopes - Yahoo! News

If you ask me, Thor saying that he's still open to licensing BB10 is just saying "Yeah, I'm a professional businessman, and I'm not going to withhold licensing BB10 if there's a sound business case for it..."

and the stock goes up, supposedly in response.

Who are these people who think this is a good idea for the near future? If BB10 OS is the astounding success I expect it to be, could they get a hundred dollars per device to license it out, without manufacturing the hardware? No? But if they DO manufacture the hardware TOO, they can get upwards of $200 profit per device? So... why would they license the software for, say, $20 per device and then not get the profit from the hardware sale also?

I just don't understand why, when we're just DAYS away from the BB10 launch that some thought RIM wouldn't survive to see, there is still some component of what is "the market" that thinks a breakup or licensing of the software is a good idea. Why, then, in their entire history, has Apple kept their OS to themselves and refused to license it? Because owning the entire platform from b@lls to bones is a sound strategy.

Arg.

Its not new news...but it does remind shorts that RIM could sell something to a company, possibly in a bidding war, and the timing of that could be any time.

I also read today that they may no longer be making their own hardware down the road.

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Originally Posted by Admorris

I also read today that they may no longer be making their own hardware down the road.

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Like licensing or partnering, that is a possibility that is open, but not a sure thing. As was stated by Thor a while ago, they aren't ruling out any option that could help the success of RIM and BB10.

I don't just think licensing BB10 is a great idea; in fact it has to happen. If BB10 is going to be a mobile OS and embedded in all sorts of devices it will need to happen. BB10 in your car, in your refrigerator, in your dish washer, in your TV, in your tablet. This will come to pass. My guess is that if BB10 is successful you will see it in a multitude of devices within 24 months.

Originally Posted by lorax1284

RIM shares rise to 13-month high on strategic review hopes - Yahoo! News

If you ask me, Thor saying that he's still open to licensing BB10 is just saying "Yeah, I'm a professional businessman, and I'm not going to withhold licensing BB10 if there's a sound business case for it..."

and the stock goes up, supposedly in response.

Who are these people who think this is a good idea for the near future? If BB10 OS is the astounding success I expect it to be, could they get a hundred dollars per device to license it out, without manufacturing the hardware? No? But if they DO manufacture the hardware TOO, they can get upwards of $200 profit per device? So... why would they license the software for, say, $20 per device and then not get the profit from the hardware sale also?

I just don't understand why, when we're just DAYS away from the BB10 launch that some thought RIM wouldn't survive to see, there is still some component of what is "the market" that thinks a breakup or licensing of the software is a good idea. Why, then, in their entire history, has Apple kept their OS to themselves and refused to license it? Because owning the entire platform from b@lls to bones is a sound strategy.

Arg.

Because there's a market out there that won't buy BlackBerry just because of the brand recognition. No matter how great BB10 is, these people won't perceive it that way for a long while. And during that long while, they'll buy other phones. Licensing to other manufacturers that this market segment knows/likes/trusts and will actually buy, will allow RIM to capture a market they didn't have before/wouldn't have now.

That's just one reason.

the one thing with killing your own hardware and licensing, is yes you get less $ per license than you `may` make on the device, however you wouldnt have an r+d for devices either, so you could easily save the difference that way. Currently RIM`s hardware business doesnt really make any profits, so its a logical step to evaluate.

If they must, license it to Sony, which has solid hardware, just needs a good OS. Don't license it to Samsung because their hardware, in my opinion, isn't good quality (I'd go as far as saying it's on the cheap side for quality but not for price - but that's my opinion). Although more than anything, it would be nice to see all this kept as BB but you have to do what you have to do to keep your company alive.

RIM didn’t go up today just because of this, that is not why investors are buying now. It would be akin to saying that BB10 will be a success based on something Thor said today. The fact is that the media, after completely missing the reinvention of RIM this last 1-2 years is scrambling to find headlines to explain the daily surges in stock price. The reality is that the tipping point has been reached and the big institutions are buying hand over first no matter what Thor happen's to say. I know because Thor has said stuff like this before and nobody, I mean nobody (beyond us here at the Crackberry nation) cared. The lights have finally come on in Wall Street (late) and the media is even later. This is how it goes.

Take the visa announcement last week. Rogers CIBC mobile payment already works with Visa Paywave, this was announced months ago.

Canada: Rogers and CIBC to Commercially Launch NFC Payment Service | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.

Did the stock move drastically on that day...noooo. RIM's SEM solution was chosen to power every NFC transaction in Canada months ago, did the media pick up on that? Did the stock skyrocket? No of course not, everyone thought RIM was dead in September.

The stock is not going up because of these daily headlines, it is going up because it is severely undervalued. The media is reactionary, not forward thinking. Just read some of Ian Marlow's work at the Globe like his horrendous interview of Heins last year. The guy is not even open to the possibility that someone might build something competitive with Apple and Google. Read his story today and note his pessimistic undertone. He obviously did not get the same memo that Gizmodo,Engadget, TechnoBuffallo, BGR, CNET got last week when they went super positive on BlackBerry 10.

The news is a starting point for your research, and to be taken with a cup of salt.

Thor says RIM just doesn't have the economies of scale to keep production costs as low as the other manufacturers, so why didn't he outsource the hardware with BB 10? Couldn't he get a deal that was as profitable for this round of phones?

Hopefully BB 10 will be so successful that Thor can order large the quantities he needs for future phones.

Buy on the Rumor, sell on the News.

Well, Heins has been saying that since early last year. He won't completely dismiss it because investors nor the media want to hear about another close-minded CEO from RIM (not saying that Heins is close-minded, but that's what he'd come across as). As the CEO, he has to keep all options on the table. Really, this is old news and this reiteration just says to me that if RIM has a tough time going back to profiting, then it may explore licensing the OS. If RIM does return to profitability, then I doubt RIM will license the software to competitors. I, for one, am against RIM licensing BB10 to any competing smartphone manufacturer and would prefer that it maintains total control over its software and hardware. If anything, RIM will license the software to companies in other industries like automotive, aviation, and home appliance.

It's a corporation. It's going to do what is in the best interest of the shareholders at the end of the day.

Don't know why people are getting upset if RIM is looking at any angle to return to profitability.

Originally Posted by BB10BelieveIt

RIM didn�t go up today just because of this, that is not why investors are buying now. It would be akin to saying that BB10 will be a success based on something Thor said today. The fact is that the media, after completely missing the reinvention of RIM this last 1-2 years is scrambling to find headlines to explain the daily surges in stock price. The reality is that the tipping point has been reached and the big institutions are buying hand over first no matter what Thor happen's to say. I know because Thor has said stuff like this before and nobody, I mean nobody (beyond us here at the Crackberry nation) cared. The lights have finally come on in Wall Street (late) and the media is even later. This is how it goes.

Take the visa announcement last week. Rogers CIBC mobile payment already works with Visa Paywave, this was announced months ago.

Canada: Rogers and CIBC to Commercially Launch NFC Payment Service | NFC Times � Near Field Communication and all contactless technology.

Did the stock move drastically on that day...noooo. RIM's SEM solution was chosen to power every NFC transaction in Canada months ago, did the media pick up on that? Did the stock skyrocket? No of course not, everyone thought RIM was dead in September.

The stock is not going up because of these daily headlines, it is going up because it is severely undervalued. The media is reactionary, not forward thinking. Just read some of Ian Marlow's work at the Globe like his horrendous interview of Heins last year. The guy is not even open to the possibility that someone might build something competitive with Apple and Google. Read his story today and note his pessimistic undertone. He obviously did not get the same memo that Gizmodo,Engadget, TechnoBuffallo, BGR, CNET got last week when they went super positive on BlackBerry 10.

The news is a starting point for your research, and to be taken with a cup of salt.

Dude you nailed it! There is ZERO new news here and the media got it wrong again! I actually thought the way the NA media twisted Thor's quote the market might go down because of it. Now I see that the market is up (only open in Canada) because of a massive short squeeze that is just starting! Enjoy the pintch Shorts!

Perhaps licensing it will be about expanding in to different mobile solutions, ie laptops. Afaik they dont have the manufacturing process to build anything like that and might not want to invest in it but still want to be involved in the market some how. My only hope is that if a license deal is struck RIM Retains complete control over the source code and is the only company that issues updates and such

he's keeping all options open. nothing he said was definite.
it looked like he was specifically asked questions about licensing and hardware division sales purely for a chance to get sensational quotes

This is similar to him saying they considered using Android before they decided on developing BB10. Of course they investigated and decided not to.

Also, don't forget they are getting additional analyst upgrades (with comments) all of the time.

^^lots of valid points^^...now, if we can just replicate the VW squeeze of 2008...epic way to start the world's greatest mobile platform!!

Originally Posted by FanBlackBerrytastic

... Enjoy the pintch Shorts!

I had shorts like that.
Then I switched to boxers. :)

I see this frequently in financial markets, when the press don't understand a move they just look at the last reports and credit it to that.

Just shows they still don't understand this company and whats motivating buyers.

There might be several opportunities for specific needs/markets/regions where RIM wouldn't go w/o a strong partner that already deals with them.
I believe the "maybe, but not before we can measure BB10 attractiveness and success" is a fair response, basically a "why not ? We'd be stupid not to consider this option" one.

Edit : BTW, QNX is licensed already ... so they know how to handle this.

Originally Posted by Superfly_FR

There might be several opportunities for specific needs/markets/regions where RIM wouldn't go w/o a strong partner that already deals with them.
I believe the "maybe, but not before we can measure BB10 attractiveness and success" is a fair response, basically a "why not ? We'd be stupid not to consider this option" one.

Edit : BTW, QNX is licensed already ... so they know how to handle this.

When I hear Thorsten talk about this I hear him talking about things other than phones, like cars, appliances, medical devices etc. I have never heard him speak positively about allowing another competing phone manufacturer to have BB10 and I would be very surprised if it happened, thought I am pretty sure the market isn't hearing that when they hear him speak about licensing.

I wasn't clear in the first post why the "facepalm"

1) I wasn't clear that I meant "for handheld communications devices".
2) I categorize QNX-style licensing differently than BB10 handset / tablet OS software licensing. RIM isn't going to be manufacturing nuclear reactors (I hope!) but will be licensing QNX to manufacturers of devices that are used in the ongoing daily functioning of nuclear reactors.
3) I'm not opposed to the idea "if there's a business case" and one hasn't been made SINCE WE ARE ONLY DAYS AWAY FROM BB10 LAUNCH, but clearly there's a business case for Google to put development resources into Android and license it, and one day RIM's business interests might align and there WILL be a case for licensing.

... but for the analyst to publish a story that relates a throwaway "I'm not an elliot^:-�, so I'll license if there's a business case" comment by a CEO to a gain in stock price, whether or not that comment was in fact the cause for a share gain, is what makes me do a facepalm. These analysts and, ostensibly, the investor community at large, are such Pavlov's dogs to the "bell" that are these types of comments, that I weep for the future of our collective financial security and the worldwide economy.

^:-� replace "ell" with "id" and you'll crack my secret code!

Originally Posted by lorax1284

2) I categorize QNX-style licensing differently than BB10 handset / tablet OS software licensing. RIM isn't going to be manufacturing nuclear reactors (I hope!) but will be licensing QNX to manufacturers of devices that are used in the ongoing daily functioning of nuclear reactors.

Isn't QNX already being licensed?

In any case, I'm surprised the market reacted to Heins' comments (if that was the real reason). It's been known for months that RIM is weighing their options, and that licensing would be one of them. I personally think it would be a good idea, since margins on hardware are shrinking for most manufacturers and it's likely that this trend will continue. I do think that RIM's hardware business will become profitable once again due to the launch of the first BB10 devices. However, I think it may eventually make sense to license the platform to other manufacturers.