[bb10adopter111]

Last week New York Magazine published an article, "We’re No Longer in Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline." which highlighted several points:

1) Global "Smartphone Plateau" occurred from 2015-2017
2) Sales in 2017 declined slightly from 2016
3) Most analysts believe annual global demand will decline from 2017 levels
4) Mid-priced phones have almost disappeared. In 2017 in the US, 43% of phones sold cost more than $600, and 40% cost less than $200, with approx. 15% costing between $200 and $600.
5) All the gimmicks we're seeing from the $600+ phones are a desperate attempt to delay commodification
6) As happened to TVs, these gimmicks are probably appearing faster than consumers can understand or care about
7) Most phones are more powerful than the average user needs them to be
8) As advancement in phones slows and phones become commoditized, people won't replace them as often.

There nothing really surprising or controversial in the article. But I think it highlights why Blackberry Mobile has not, and will not, try to produce a phone to compete with Apple and Samsung's flagship products. There's more open space in $600-650 "bottom" tier of the premium market (where the KEY2 is priced) and the mid-tier (where the KEY2 LE is priced) for a phone that is better differentiated from the generic slabs, and feels "premium enough" for people who don't want to spend more.

Will their strategy work? I have no idea, but it seems pretty clear what it is.

The good news, according to the author, as phones become commoditized, "Behind the scenes there may be a bloodbath, but you’ll simply notice that you’re getting a lot more phone for a lot less money."

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Most big Chinese companies like Huawei and Oppo (OnePlus) aren't making but $15 - $20 a phone... only way they make money is volume. While Samsung and Apple have been profitable, even they will find it more difficult going forward. But they will be more successful than those that are already running in the red now, and who struggle with their brand and quality control.

Only bright spot is 5G "might" be something to push more users to upgrade... but then it might not either. If the "talk" about it adding a couple $100 to current prices are true, and if overall it's more like going from DVD to Blueray than from VHS to DVD....

[bb10adopter111]

I can't wait until Android and the manufacturers finally realize that phones need to be patched for up to FIVE years. I expect Apple to maintain its standard and Android to eventually catch up. We've already seen the increase to three years from two become a standard for enterprise phones.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I can't wait until Android and the manufacturers finally realize that phones need to be patched for up to FIVE years. I expect Apple to maintain its standard and Android to eventually catch up. We've already seen the increase to three years from two become a standard for enterprise phones.

I agree...

I think it's a very expensive prospect for OEMs, more will probable join Google's Android One program. Which I expect will eventually offer longer update life cycles. Samsung will keep their own "version" in order to differentiate themselves. But the little guys just can't afford the cost of tweaking, testing, hosting, supporting of updates... especially over the long term. Be more like the PC market... generic hardware with most the support in the hands of the software (Microsoft in the past, Google in the future). At some point Google might end Android and switch to Fuchsia and fully control the OS part.

And that's what scares everyone, is Google becoming more powerful....

[D BB]

But then you need a keyboard phone and guess what? Only blackberry have good ones. I see a lot of ppl missing old keyboard phones like nokias. Blackberry mobile needs to offer a entry level Pkb for the masses. Bold small form with android for less than 150$
No finger print, no 500mpx camera, no nothing. Only a good keyboard and secure android. Keytwo LE is a mid phone.


Posted via CB10

[bb10adopter111]

But then you need a keyboard phone and guess what? Only blackberry have good ones. I see a lot of ppl missing old keyboard phones like nokias. Blackberry mobile needs to offer a entry level Pkb for the masses. Bold small form with android for less than 150$
No finger print, no 500mpx camera, no nothing. Only a good keyboard and secure android. Keytwo LE is a mid phone.


Posted via CB10

I would be very happy with that, but I don't know if it would make money, even if they sold millions if them.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[bb10adopter111]

I would be very happy with that, but I don't know if it would make money, even if they sold millions of them.

Posted with my trusty Z10

Posted with my trusty Z10

[iHadLastBB]

But then you need a keyboard phone and guess what? Only blackberry have good ones. I see a lot of ppl missing old keyboard phones like nokias. Blackberry mobile needs to offer a entry level Pkb for the masses. Bold small form with android for less than 150$
No finger print, no 500mpx camera, no nothing. Only a good keyboard and secure android. Keytwo LE is a mid phone.


Posted via CB10

Actually, KEY2 LE is a entry level phone with mid phone pricing.

You don't want to know what they do for 150$,
just buy BB10 or BBOS though.

[bb92a5]

well...
I think these prospects purely rely on people
because what happens is that people like to continue to use the phones of the same brands after being used to it.
so...
what do you think?...

Posted via CB10

[iHadLastBB]

Last week New York Magazine published an article, "We’re No Longer in Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline." which highlighted several points:

1) Global "Smartphone Plateau" occurred from 2015-2017
2) Sales in 2017 declined slightly from 2016
3) Most analysts believe annual global demand will decline from 2017 levels
4) Mid-priced phones have almost disappeared. In 2017 in the US, 43% of phones sold cost more than $600, and 40% cost less than $200, with approx. 15% costing between $200 and $600.
5) All the gimmicks we're seeing from the $600+ phones are a desperate attempt to delay commodification
6) As happened to TVs, these gimmicks are probably appearing faster than consumers can understand or care about
7) Most phones are more powerful than the average user needs them to be
8) As advancement in phones slows and phones become commoditized, people won't replace them as often.

There nothing really surprising or controversial in the article. But I think it highlights why Blackberry Mobile has not, and will not, try to produce a phone to compete with Apple and Samsung's flagship products. There's more open space in $600-650 "bottom" tier of the premium market (where the KEY2 is priced) and the mid-tier (where the KEY2 LE is priced) for a phone that is better differentiated from the generic slabs, and feels "premium enough" for people who don't want to spend more.

Will their strategy work? I have no idea, but it seems pretty clear what it is.

The good news, according to the author, as phones become commoditized, "Behind the scenes there may be a bloodbath, but you’ll simply notice that you’re getting a lot more phone for a lot less money."

@conite here's your evidence everyone wants only a high end device or cheapest **** you can buy.

No one want to spend money on a middle price for midrange crap or even high price for the midrange crap.

[Blackberryphosphamide]

Last week New York Magazine published an article, "We’re No Longer in Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline."
"

I'm not surprised, but I think there is a limit to how far the "decline" will fall. People might be happy for longer with the phones they have but people will replace them eventually. Over the last few years I've seen friends and colleagues replace there's every 2 years, partly due to their 2 year contract ending but partly because their new phone is faster, has latest OS version, better battery life. These qualities that phones come with are starting to last a bit longer so perhaps people will start to replace their handsets every 3-4 years instead. I think manufacturers will adjust accordingly and a new plateau will become established.

[conite]

No one want to spend money on a middle price for midrange crap or even high price for the midrange crap.

Apart from you, me, and all the folks here you mean?

The pkb market is a different animal anyway. After the launch of the two KEY² products, BBMo will have very good demand curve data.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I'm not surprised, but I think there is a limit to how far the "decline" will fall. People might be happy for longer with the phones they have but people will replace them eventually. Over the last few years I've seen friends and colleagues replace there's every 2 years, partly due to their 2 year contract ending but partly because their new phone is faster, has latest OS version, better battery life. These qualities that phones come with are starting to last a bit longer so perhaps people will start to replace their handsets every 3-4 years instead. I think manufacturers will adjust accordingly and a new plateau will become established.

Plateau was two years ago... overall sales will continue decline as users keep phones longer and longer. That's not a prediction at this point, but a continuation of the existing trend.

Some will find a way to make money in this market... some haven't been making money for years already.

[Blackberryphosphamide]

Plateau was two years ago... overall sales will continue decline as users keep phones longer and longer. That's not a prediction at this point, but a continuation of the existing trend.

Some will find a way to make money in this market... some haven't been making money for years already.

I read the article. I understand that sales are in decline, but I suspect that if over the next 10 years you were to plot a graph showing smartphone sales then another plateau would develop (I'm not talking about another peak). I'm not suggesting smartphone sales would increase again, only that they would level out; the number of smartphones sold each year may be consistent, just not as many.

[Tsepz_GP]

The good news, according to the author, as phones become commoditized, "Behind the scenes there may be a bloodbath, but you’ll simply notice that you’re getting a lot more phone for a lot less money."

The Xiaomi Pocophone and OnePlus 6T are the direct result of this, the best Smartphones around under $600.

You can also get devices like last years Flagships (Galaxy S8+, Galaxy Note8, OnePlus 5T, LG V30 etc....) for incredibly low prices.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

The Xiaomi Pocophone and OnePlus 6T are the direct result of this, the best Smartphones around under $600.

You can also get devices like last years Flagships (Galaxy S8+, Galaxy Note8, OnePlus 5T, LG V30 etc....) for incredibly low prices.

I think the big reason to not get an older Android... is updates. If that changes and Android start getting updates like Apple, you could see a lot more folks willing to buy an older phone.... and hold onto it even longer. Manufactures don't want users having that option, but it's kinda being forced on them as more consumers see this as an issue for them.

[bb10adopter111]

I think the big reason to not get an older Android... is updates. If that changes and Android start getting updates like Apple, you could see a lot more folks willing to buy an older phone.... and hold onto it even longer. Manufactures don't want users having that option, but it's kinda being forced on them as more consumers see this as an issue for them.

^^This is me 100%. I really, really, really dislike iOS, but as I expect to use my smartphone less and less for work following the demise of BB10, I will choose the least expensive iPhone over an Android phone if Android patch support is still limited to 3 years. My goal will be to simply own a smartphone for those instances where I need one, and I'll pick the one that offers the most security and the least hassle.

I will keep my KEYone at least until mid 2020, so that's how long Android has to figure out how to guarantee at least four years of upgrades and/or patches for this user.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[brookie229]

I think the big reason to not get an older Android... is updates.

I'm not so sure about that. Most people I have helped out with buying/looking at phones really don't have any clue about OS's , versions of OS's or ram or soc or really anything technical at all. CBians and other techies are inherently knowledgeable about specs, security and the like but we are only a tiny fraction of total users. My buddy across the street has no clue about security updates.

[lord_hibiskus]

Well it is more flagship smartphone decline than all smartphone decline. Is there really need to buy s9 or s10 after 1 or 2 years owning s8? It will just work 10-15% faster and will have few gimmicks extra.
As for k1 k2 I dont own then, my perception about the is like this: mid specced, (almost) flagship priced, with poor screen for consuming and poor OS for business communication.

Posted via CB10

[Chuck Finley69]

Well it is more flagship smartphone decline than all smartphone decline. Is there really need to buy s9 or s10 after 1 or 2 years owning s8? It will just work 10-15% faster and will have few gimmicks extra.
As for k1 k2 I dont own then, my perception about the is like this: mid specced, (almost) flagship priced, with poor screen for consuming and poor OS for business communication.

Posted via CB10

The need to replace Android sooner isn’t always for gimmicks. It’s because it loses OEM and development support at proprietary level sooner.

I use KEYone and find superior to any BB10 PKB device in almost 2019 since the gap between ART 4.3 to 8.1 is huge.

[Chuck Finley69]

^^This is me 100%. I really, really, really dislike iOS, but as I expect to use my smartphone less and less for work following the demise of BB10, I will choose the least expensive iPhone over an Android phone if Android patch support is still limited to 3 years. My goal will be to simply own a smartphone for those instances where I need one, and I'll pick the one that offers the most security and the least hassle.

I will keep my KEYone at least until mid 2020, so that's how long Android has to figure out how to guarantee at least four years of upgrades and/or patches for this user.

Posted with my trusty Z10

This is what happened to me recently. I needed to replace my second line device. I’d carried Android but in a jam was using an old iPhone 5 that was lay-off around. The fact that a 5 year purchase anniversary device was still usable and lasted until it's 6 year purchase anniversary speaks volumes. It’s why I purchased the XR instead of Flagship LG V40 ThinQ with AT&T BOGO available on either device.

[lord_hibiskus]

The need to replace Android sooner isn’t always for gimmicks. It’s because it loses OEM and development support at proprietary level sooner.

I use KEYone and find superior to any BB10 PKB device in almost 2019 since the gap between ART 4.3 to 8.1 is huge.

I agree about bb10 vs keyX, I was more wondering why should I pick keyx prior to Huawei p20 for instance.

Posted via CB10

[Chuck Finley69]

I agree about bb10 vs keyX, I was more wondering why should I pick keyx prior to Huawei p20 for instance.

Posted via CB10

Only if your primary concern is PKB over ANYTHING else. I also won’t buy any device from ANY problematic OEM regarding possible Communist nation state linked spyware. I was considering if brand cleared approval with AT&T but that died. I used to buy their brand for AT&T prepaid devices several years ago.

[bb10adopter111]

Only if your primary concern is PKB over ANYTHING else. I also won’t buy any device from ANY problematic OEM regarding possible Communist nation state linked spyware. I was considering if brand cleared approval with AT&T but that died. I used to buy their brand for AT&T prepaid devices several years ago.

China has shown itself to be very aggressive in pursuing all avenues to digital intelligence. That is their right as a sovereign country, and certainly every other country does that, too, though not all commit such brazen criminal acts against private corporations. But that doesn't mean we should help by purchasing telecom equipment from what are effectively state-controlled manufacturers!

We shouldn't overstate the parallels with US and allied government intelligence initiatives. The role that the Chinese government plays in financing and controlling its tech industry is materially different than that of the US and lost of its allies.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[Chuck Finley69]

China has shown itself to be very aggressive in pursuing all avenues to digital intelligence. That is their right as a sovereign country, and certainly every other country does that, too, though not all commit south brazen criminal acts against private corporations. But that doesn't mean we should help by purchasing telecom equipment from what are effectively state-controlled manufacturers!

We shouldn't overstate the parallels with US and allied government intelligence initiatives. The role that the Chinese government plays in financing and controlling it's tech industry is materially different than that of the US and lost of its allies.

Posted with my trusty Z10

You and Conite’s statements always communicate what I’m meaning so much better than how I redneck state it.....