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Hey all. RIM has their earnings coming up this Thursday at 5pm. Interested in having a discussion on how it might unfold.
I'm expecting a potential rollercoaster on the stock this week which I do have a long position in. I anticipate the earnings will be neutral and hopefully positive. I believe most of the bad news was disclosed last quarter and I don't expect any big surprises. Thoughts from my fellow investors and forum junkies?
Cheers.
there still wont be OS 7 devices in these numbers so i expect the phone sales to be kinda depressing again and we should get a better idea of how the Playbook is doing.
Please explain why OS7 sales won't be included. Thanks.
RIM to announce Q2 Fiscal 2012 results on Sept. 15th at 5pm est | The BerryFix.com
i suppose you will see some of the sales showing up in the call perhaps but would only be speculations for the guidance for the next quarter
Because RIM's quarter (which they're reporting on) ended before any OS7 phones went on sale.
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I think one thing is certain, this time around, it cannot be as bad as the call last quarter. Fingers crossed for some good news and nomore bloodletting.
I am optimistic they will beat the street estimates by a far margin, RIM has done a incredible job releasing OS 7 devices on 225 carriers worldwide, if that is anything they will move a lot of OS 7 devices because the inventory levels of old devices have been low all over in anticipation of new devices, they will continue strong sales in to the holiday season, the hope is they meet $7 EPS as estimated earlier...I am long RIM and NOK as you can't go wrong with either at the current levels..bought 500 at $25
RIM's Q2 ended Aug 27th. If I am not mistaken, OS7 devices went on sale mid August which would mean 1/2 month of sales to the carriers. If they got the carriers to take a hefty load in, sales (revenue) maybe stronger than expected.
Am I misunderstanding something?
I'm really not concerned. All I know is the new OS7 devices have been selling like hot cakes and that tells me RIM isn't quite as dead as a lot of people like to claim. :D
no thats exactly how i see it too, of course not all carriers have the new devices yet (and some didnt by quarter cutoff), so its not gonna be the `full picture` on OS7 but some sales will be in the earnings
I think it will be on par with the last stockholders meeting and its results. Perhaps a little worse.
OS7 would not of made an impact on Q2. The Playbook is not a profit source for RIM, yet. Layoffs had not been in place yet. Costs of R&D will still be high.
So perpare for the worst and hope for the best.
Q3 results should show a little uptick in the numbers if not offset by R&D costs again.
Tim
Earnings are earnings. It's all money in general.
Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
This quarter would be neutral, I think. The shipments of BB7 devices may compensate for slow sales of older models. Would be interesting to look at playbook take up. Guidance for next few quarters would also be interesting.
EARNINGS ALERT: RESEARCH IN MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEAT THE STREET CONSENSUS WHEN IT REPORTS EARNINGS (RIMM)
Sep 12, 2011 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX)
Analysts, on average, expect Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM - Analyst Report) to report earnings of $0.90 per share on sales of $4.5 billion on September 15, 2011.
For the full year, analysts expect the company to post EPS of $5.15. In the year-ago period, the company reported EPS of $1.46 on sales of $4.6 billion.
In the previous quarter, the company reported EPS of $1.33, topping consensus estimates of $1.32.
SmarTrend currently has shares of Research In Motion in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on August 19, 2011 at $27.06. The stock has risen 9.7% since the Uptrend alert was issued.
Last quarters earning should easily be met...I am watching if they increase their guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I would expect earnings in the upper half of RIM's guidance due to stronger than expected overseas sales, and an earlier than expected release of OS7. I think OS7 will affect Q2 earnings. I would expect the first two weeks of sales to be worth a few pennies of earnings.
I think Q3 guidance will have a larger impact than Q2 earnings. I can't see them lowering guidance.
It's hard to read into how much difference 1 million net new subscribers acquired in EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa) in the first 3 weeks of the quarter will translate into earnings. Is there a reason why the first 3 weeks would be different than the rest of the quarter? If it can be extrapolated, I think earnings and earnings outlook could be very good. Are they doing similarly well in Asia and South America?
With international growth, I expect lower end smartphones to be driving more new sales, and thus operating margins could be a bit of an offset to increased international sales.
And is there any truth to 76 million subscribers? I'm about 99% sure that number was misreported in that Korean paper (Basillie said 67 million just a couple months prior), but if it is true, the stock will explode.
In my opinion, the US is well understood. I think analysts have a pretty good idea of how sales are going in the US. They don't seem to have much idea of what's going on overseas, where RIM has had pretty decent growth.
RIM gets $X per BIS user per month from carriers. In the US, X is supposedly $5, but I'm not sure if this is the same for all carriers globally. But even so, if RIM added lots of new subscribers globally, then they will be getting more income per month, even if they don't make much on the hardware side of that new subscriber. If RIM made carriers buy the OS7 phones and counts them as sales as they have reportedly done with previous sales to carriers as stated in the BGR "employee letter", then RIM could have a large number of OS7 sales recorded for the last few weeks of the the Quarter, but that is making a lot of assumptions (is letter correct and if so are carriers still letting RIM sell them phones in this way). As far as the earnings call all I care about is the Q&A and hoping that someone asks when Playbook will get the promised "end of summer" features or if that too has slipped.
i can answer that one for you real easily lol
I think gross margin will be under pressure. Not sure if RIM will meet unit sales on phones. It would be nice if Brothers RIM mention Playbooks sold not shipped.
Here are what the analysts are stating:
Mobile world�s eyes on RIM
omar el akkad � TECHNOLOGY REPORTER
From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Sep. 11, 2011 7:00PM EDT
Last updated Sunday, Sep. 11, 2011 7:10PM EDT
Research In Motion (RIM-T29.980.461.56%) will be the centre of attention in the mobile world this week, as the company posts its latest earnings results and tries to show that it is more success story than takeover target.
RIM announces its fiscal second-quarter results after market close on Thursday. Even though the company�s stock has lost nearly half its value so far this year, RIM shares have experienced a mini-resurgence in recent weeks, in large part because of the new line of BlackBerrys released last month. Some investors have also looked more favourably on RIM shares following Google�s acquisition of Motorola Mobility � an acquisition that once again fuelled speculation that RIM may be the next big takeover target.
More related to this story
The company�s newly released smart phones, including a slimmer, more powerful version of the BlackBerry Bold, have received generally positive reviews. UBS Investment Research analyst Phillip Huang said recent store checks �point to a decent start� in sales for the new devices.
Last week, National Bank Financial raised its price target for RIM�s U.S.-listed stock by 40 per cent, largely on the strength of the new product launches.
But the coming months may be challenging, as RIM enters the holiday shopping season competing against a slew of smart phones powered by Google�s Android operating system, in addition to a brand new version of Apple�s iPhone.
�RIM is being progressively effaced from the North American handset market, with market shares going from a peak of over 50 per cent to an estimated 13 per cent in the second calendar quarter of 2011,� Bernstein Research analyst Pierre Ferragu said in a recent research report.
But even Mr. Ferragu, who has long been pessimistic about RIM�s long-term chances of resurgence in the smart phone market, noted that the stock could be set for a short-term boost, in part because of growing enthusiasm about the company�s anticipated line of mobile devices powered by the QNX operating system. In addition, Mr. Ferragu expects the refreshing of RIM�s current line of BlackBerrys to help sustain the company�s share price.
RIM is coming off some moderately good news in recent weeks.
In addition to the headline profit and revenue numbers, investors will be looking closely on Thursday at several key metrics in RIM�s earnings report. Chief among those numbers are the average sales prices and gross margins of RIM�s smart phones � in other words, whether RIM is selling high-end, high-priced devices or lower-end handsets, and how much money it is making off those devices.
Investors will also be looking for any update as to when RIM plans to unveil its new, QNX-powered units. The company has consistently pointed to early 2012 as a launch date, and any negative revision to that timeline will likely hurt its share price.
I came across an article at computerworld.com that cites IDC projecting 14.2% global smartphone market share for 2011 for RIM. While this is down from 16.0% in 2010, this is up from their Q1 2011 and Q2 2011 data of 13.6% and 11.6% respectively, implying Q3+Q4 will be 15.8%.
Their data suggests 67.0M handsets sold for 2011. The last two quarters reported, RIM has sold 28.1M, implying 38.9M projected sold for the unreleased prior quarter, and next quarter.
As a comparison, I looked at the model at trefis.com and they only project 52.3M handsets for 2011. Trefis has a price target of $42, which seems to have a very conservative market share projection relative to IDC. Another interseting comparison is 2015 data, where IDC projects 132M Blackberries compared to 69.6M at Trefis. Trefis allows you to plug in changes in assumptions into their model, and it revised its price estimate to ~$70.
Anyway, I thought that was interesting, because IDC is closer to global and regional sales data than anybody else. If you have $2000 you can puchase their data, but you can find anecdotes floating around various news sources.
Could suggest earnings beats, and revised upward forecasts.
(URLs not posted due to newbie restrictions)
I was also looking at some regional data, and found a press release from IDC saying that RIM sold 3M handsets in Q2 and 14% market share in Western Europe, which is #4 amongst smartphones. Samsung is #1 with 22%, but could be hit hard with a sales injunction, which resulted from Apple litigation, which begins in October. With RIM currently having the newest product, and with optimistic global forecast for the next 2 quarters, RIM could stand to gain quite a bit. RIM has 23% of their global sales in Western Europe, so this is an important region for them.
Also hearing about explosive growth in Indonesia with 47% market share, up from single digits a couple years ago, where they sell $200 smartphones at a fraction of the price of an iPhone. They sell more blackberries than Apple and Android combined. So, generating good market share, though profit margins are likely lower in that region. The government, however, isn't too happy about RIM setting up their regional distribution network in Malaysia (which has 10% of the subscribers of Indonesia) rather than Indonesia. RIM set up in Malaysia due an unstable political climate in Indonesia. So good news, but a threat at the same time. The government has threatened import taxes in retaliation. The middle class in Indonesia is expected to grow from 50M to 150M by 2014 (current population close to 250M).
Within Middle East and Africa, they sold 2.4M in Q2 with 32% market share amongst smartphones. Didn't find any trends for RIM, though the smartphone market in the region grew 24% from Q1.