Pretty fair analysis this:
Can BB10 save BlackBerry? - Telegraph
In the run-up to the launch of the first iPhone, Apple’s share price rose from $93 to a peak of $140. As Research in Motion girds itself for the launch of BB10, it’s risen from $6.22 to $17.54. Few figures could be more indicative of the huge anticipation surrounding BlackBerry’s new Z10 device, or how low RIM’s stock has fallen.
That rise – 281 per cent compared to 50 per cent – already reflects the careful management of BlackBerry’s launch and the enthusiasm of networks for another operating system to challenge iOS and Android, as well as how low BlackBerry has sunk. No wonder Forrester’s Charles Golvin calls the challenge “gargantuan”. It seems hard to imagine RIM taking the place of the iPhone five years from now.
Still, the devices themselves have both been widely leaked and widely praised. RIM has shown off so many features that everything seems to be coming together neatly, from the personalised typing patterns on the screen's keyboard to the combined inbox. Even BlackBerry’s plan to spend millions on making and showing a SuperBowl ad seems to have struck many observers as a reasonable marketing tactic rather than an act of desperation.
But a clear-headed analysis of BlackBerry shows two things: its core user base remains the corporate IT department, which for decades inflicted devices on poor employees yet now increasingly provides people with devices they genuinely want to own. And BlackBerry sustained its user base for as long as it did on the back of young people buying cheap, low-grade devices. Tales from professionals are all too often of poor build quality and multiple replacements.
Both those audiences have changed hugely: even security-conscious accountancy firms such as Deloitte are more than happy to provider employees with Android and iOS devices. Few actively choose BlackBerry when offered. Stopping the haemorrhage means turning around a battleship.
And increasingly, while young people do remain committed to the BBM instant messenger service, cheaper more capable devices are easy to come by, almost all of them running Android.
"RIM has clearly demonstrated that the company retains considerable skill and expertise in hardware and software design; the Z10 is beautiful and BB10 is a giant leap forward from RIM's previous platform,” says Golvin. “But to prove its continued viability and potential for renewal, the company must convince multiple constituents to invest in BB10: its current and former users, application developers, mobile operators, and content providers. The highly competitive smartphone market will only offer them a short window to do this.”
So RIM must rapidly become cool among its affluent core, which so quickly ran for the iPhone and now accepts Samsung enthusiastically too. And it must also quickly make even its premium devices affordable to a fickle younger user base. In that sense, the quality of the phone is at best equally important to the perception of the brand. At worst, BB10 is simply too little too late for BlackBerry thanks to a lethal combination of being consistently decent but not outstanding when it comes to cool factor, hardware, software and app availability.
At launch BB10 may have 70,000 apps or more thanks to the rapid conversion of Android software. But that will make it nearly as good as Android, which is still in many ways chasing iOS. RIM will be fighting it out for third with Microsoft if it’s lucky. “They'll need to prove themselves in the face of a simultaneous onslaught of marketing from Microsoft, not to mention the continued push from Apple plus Google and its Android partners,” says Golvin. “This is a gargantuan challenge for a company of RIM's size." Nokia hasn’t managed it, Microsoft hasn’t managed it, HTC hasn’t managed it – for my money RIM’s got a fighting chance, but it’s a true gambler who bets on BlackBerry’s long-term success.
