Conspiracy theory #3541: REAL reason for US launch delay!

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no evidence to support this idea, but I've suggested it other threads and nobody's taken the bait...

The current conventional wisdom is that the reason the US market is getting the Z10 later than much of the rest of the world is that their carrier testing is taking longer, which, of course, has led back to accusations that BB didn't supply them with samples soon enough. This assumption is reasonable, given that BB has officially stated this as the reason for the delay and the carriers have said nothing to dispute it.

BUT, I've come to believe there may be another consideration in play that isn't technical at all, but driven by marketing: perhaps the US carriers, concerned about BB's overall viability, wanted to see the initial market reaction to BB10 phones. Had the intro tanked, it would have given the carriers time to scale back handset orders and marketing and training plans. Maybe even cancel commitments completely.

This idea was in the back of my mind for a while anyway, but when T-Mobile announced that their "testing" was proceeding ahead of schedule and that they were moving their Z10 launch up to mid-March, I smelled something fishy.

I realize that no one in a position to know is ever going to confirm or deny this, but it does make sense on some levels. It isn't something that could have just been stated openly, because it would betray a lack of confidence on the part of the carriers and only worsen BB's position, and there isn't really anything illegal or unethical in this kind of "face-saving".

It would also mean that the US launch delay wasn't BB's fault.

I will buy it. But then again I also believe that the moon landing was faked....

Valid reasoning.

Tip of the hat to ya

I don't buy it. The carriers don't have to stock any. They could make it online purchase only. They need a small amount of training and support but there is a guaranteed sale to enough BB fanatics to cover those costs plus profit. If they don't believe it will sell they could just say we aren't going to carry it.

Interesting theory, but I still think it was to allow BB time to clear up the bugs because the US market would be unforgiving to BB in its current state of perception.

Originally Posted by Thunderbuck

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no evidence to support this idea, but I've suggested it other threads and nobody's taken the bait...

The current conventional wisdom is that the reason the US market is getting the Z10 later than much of the rest of the world is that their carrier testing is taking longer, which, of course, has led back to accusations that BB didn't supply them with samples soon enough. This assumption is reasonable, given that BB has officially stated this as the reason for the delay and the carriers have said nothing to dispute it.

BUT, I've come to believe there may be another consideration in play that isn't technical at all, but driven by marketing: perhaps the US carriers, concerned about BB's overall viability, wanted to see the initial market reaction to BB10 phones. Had the intro tanked, it would have given the carriers time to scale back handset orders and marketing and training plans. Maybe even cancel commitments completely.

This idea was in the back of my mind for a while anyway, but when T-Mobile announced that their "testing" was proceeding ahead of schedule and that they were moving their Z10 launch up to mid-March, I smelled something fishy.

I realize that no one in a position to know is ever going to confirm or deny this, but it does make sense on some levels. It isn't something that could have just been stated openly, because it would betray a lack of confidence on the part of the carriers and only worsen BB's position, and there isn't really anything illegal or unethical in this kind of "face-saving".

It would also mean that the US launch delay wasn't BB's fault.

I could go for that but at this point I don't even care what the real reason is. Just release the damn phone already. I'm gonna get so tired of reading about this phone that by the time I actually get it the magic will have worn off.

you can wreck your brains on it or you can just believe Blackberry and what difference does it make anyways?

Originally Posted by robtanz

I will buy it. But then again I also believe that the moon landing was faked....

The moon landing was faked. Have you not seen the images where the Astronaut was closer or covered the "+" markings on the image?

The real reasons are Instagram-Skype-Netflix Once at least 2 of those 3 are launched we will see the phones available in the U.S:waiting:

Nothing like a good conspiracy theory first thing Monday morning. I'll pay this one,highly plausible. Why havent BB released a QWErty version of The Z10 simultaneously with straight Z10?

Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Tapatalk

I like the way you think. Makes sense and has also been sitting in the back of my head. Yesterday, i walked into the sprint store with my girl (her iphone so cracked, it looks like a puzzle) but when the rep askes if he could help me with anything... whats a blackberry fan to say but "When are the new blackberry's coming?". The rep, like an *****, said he's been asked that a lot this week and doesnt know. he said he doubts it would sell well. At that point, i just looked at him in awe and thought, why would a phone that is selling like crazy in canada and uk not sell well for sprint? whatevs...

Originally Posted by BB-Bmore

The real reasons are Instagram-Skype-Netflix Once at least 2 of those 3 are launched we will see the phones available in the U.S:waiting:

As of today we have seen these apps run on the z10 in one way or another *see front page for netflix

Originally Posted by citystars41

I like the way you think. Makes sense and has also been sitting in the back of my head. Yesterday, i walked into the sprint store with my girl (her iphone so cracked, it looks like a puzzle) but when the rep askes if he could help me with anything... whats a blackberry fan to say but "When are the new blackberry's coming?". The rep, like an *****, said he's been asked that a lot this week and doesnt know. he said he doubts it would sell well. At that point, i just looked at him in awe and thought, why would a phone that is selling like crazy in canada and uk not sell well for sprint? whatevs...

I believe the OP is on to something and I'd add that it's not just the carriers that need to be convinced it's the employees like the one you just met in the store that need to 'wake up and smell the coffee'......

speaking of Conspiracy theories, i saw this post this morning. http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...e-date-770189/
They Created a new account just for that post. I also saw a post a minute later that was titled unofficial BB10 OS update or something like that with a link. It disappeared really quick. I think BB reps are poking in a and out of Crackberry, providing some info and hopefully taking notes.

Originally Posted by BB-Bmore

The real reasons are Instagram-Skype-Netflix Once at least 2 of those 3 are launched we will see the phones available in the U.S:waiting:

I'd bet that at least one of these is ready to go today, but they're all being held to add some weight to the US launch. We've heard from BB execs (one of the senior Dev Relations guys--can't remember which one) that Skype would be there in time for the US launch.

I think Netflix was on the fence, but is now committed and will have an app in time as well, but I don't have any actual evidence to support that. I think the reasonably strong Canada/UK launches have served to move at least some developers off the fence.

Originally Posted by jrohland

I don't buy it. The carriers don't have to stock any. They could make it online purchase only. They need a small amount of training and support but there is a guaranteed sale to enough BB fanatics to cover those costs plus profit. If they don't believe it will sell they could just say we aren't going to carry it.

No, actually, these wouldn't work, because each of these options sends the message of "we're not committed to this platform". Better to hold off on the US launch on the pretense of "testing". Doesn't look so bad on BB.

Originally Posted by jrohland

I don't buy it. The carriers don't have to stock any. They could make it online purchase only. They need a small amount of training and support but there is a guaranteed sale to enough BB fanatics to cover those costs plus profit. If they don't believe it will sell they could just say we aren't going to carry it.

That's still the carrier's inventory from online sales, it's not like the phones come directly from Blackberry.

Originally Posted by citystars41

I like the way you think. Makes sense and has also been sitting in the back of my head. Yesterday, i walked into the sprint store with my girl (her iphone so cracked, it looks like a puzzle) but when the rep askes if he could help me with anything... whats a blackberry fan to say but "When are the new blackberry's coming?". The rep, like an *****, said he's been asked that a lot this week and doesnt know. he said he doubts it would sell well. At that point, i just looked at him in awe and thought, why would a phone that is selling like crazy in canada and uk not sell well for sprint? whatevs...

Blackberries have been selling better in other countries than the US for a couple of years. He's on pretty solid ground with his guess at this point. Until we see US sales, there's not much else to base an opinion on.

As to the OP, I do agree that it's pretty reasonable to think carriers here wanted to see some sales before comitting to the Z10.

Interesting theory, but I am thinking that the late release in the US is due to

1. Giving a chance for any initial bugs not found in testing to be determined by users in friendlier BB markets(UK, Canada, Middle East, etc) and fixed before the Z10 is released in the US markets
2. To allow for popular apps such as skype, netflix, instagram to be available for the Z10 before it is released in the US markets

I have a similar theory to you Thunderbuck but it's slightly different.

Thor said that they wouldn't release a phone until it was ready. I believe him. Since Blackberry released the phones for testing at the same time to all potential carriers, the US carriers (rightly so because they have big numbers of users who complain at the slightest issue) are going through a full "new phone" certification process. This isn't a Blackberry 2.0. It's a 1.0 for a new OS. Maybe a little pissed that they didn't get it ahead of everyone else, they are falling over each other to speed things up because you fine folks won't leave them alone be it though social media, phone calls, general inquiries, business inquires, etc. They are gauging the response. They also see the positive reviews and probably review places like this to analyse user feedback. Hence T-Mobiles revelation that "the Z10 is more stable than anticipated". I would alomst bet that initial orders have probably been increased to be ready for the US launch.

Keep up the pressure on the carriers, the app builders, your work (who may supply phones). It looks like it's working.

Originally Posted by web99

Interesting theory, but I am thinking that the late release in the US is due to

1. Giving a chance for any initial bugs not found in testing to be determined by users in friendlier BB markets(UK, Canada, Middle East, etc) and fixed before the Z10 is released in the US markets
2. To allow for popular apps such as skype, netflix, instagram to be available for the Z10 before it is released in the US markets

I'd call point #1 an opportunity that arose with the later launch, not a driver in itself. I don't think #2 is an issue at all; I believe all of these apps are ready to go today.

I've heard a few of these different theories, but I don't really see the carriers collectively holding out with a wait and see what happens plan.

News reports of positive unexpected UK and Canada sales results could have a positive impact on US undecided buyers, and if BlackBerry knew that would happen, then how genus of them, and they are intentionally holding the US launch back.... that seems a more plausible reason for an intentional delay in the US, but I don't buy that either.

Working in the engineering field for a large US corporation, I've got to go with the extensive testing, most likely outsourced to a third party.

If the CEO of company A makes a public statement in reference to company B, C, D & E, and none deny it... then I've got to believe that what the CEO of company A says is accurate. Especially when company T says, "...its going well..."

Originally Posted by SixStringMadness

I've heard a few of these different theories, but I don't really see the carriers collectively holding out with a wait and see what happens plan.

News reports of positive unexpected UK and Canada sales results could have a positive impact on US undecided buyers, and if BlackBerry knew that would happen, then how genus of them, and they are intentionally holding the US launch back.... that seems a more plausible reason for an intentional delay in the US, but I don't buy that either.

Working in the engineering field for a large US corporation, I've got to go with the extensive testing, most likely outsourced to a third party.

If the CEO of company A makes a public statement in reference to company B, C, D & E, and none deny it... then I've got to believe that what the CEO of company A says is accurate. Especially when company T says, "...its going well..."

Given the number of new phones that are introduced in a given year, I'm a little skeptical that this is such a bottleneck. Especially when you consider that a Nokia Lumia 920 has essentially the same hardware and that's been on the market for months now. As well, BB already had an LTE network stack out for its 4G PlayBook, so it's not like this is all 100% new.

My other argument would be that if US carrier testing were so much more time consuming than almost all of the rest of the world, why haven't all BB products seen similar delays in arriving at American carriers?

As for your reference to "public statements", as I say, this is a face-saving exercise. The carriers wanted some market validation, but they didn't want to publicly humiliate BB in the process. Hence, the suggestion that this is a technical delay as opposed to a deliberate business decision.

I am just going to throw out this theory. Did any major phones launches slight before or slightly after the estimated date two years ago. Perhaps Blackberry is attempted to release it when a large amount of peoples contracts will be up?

I can imagine this happening if this was just one carrier, but having Verizion, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile making the same demands seems unlikely unless there was collusion going on. I could see one of these carriers taking advantage of such demands, by being the first US carrier to carry the Z10. Perhaps BlackBerry purposely released the Z10 to BlackBerry friendly markets first, i.e. UK and Canada, to create a buzz, have more time to work out bugs, and to finally get Skype, Netflix, and Instagram available.

Originally Posted by Thunderbuck

Given the number of new phones that are introduced in a given year, I'm a little skeptical that this is such a bottleneck. Especially when you consider that a Nokia Lumia 920 has essentially the same hardware and that's been on the market for months now. As well, BB already had an LTE network stack out for its 4G PlayBook, so it's not like this is all 100% new.

My other argument would be that if US carrier testing were so much more time consuming than almost all of the rest of the world, why haven't all BB products seen similar delays in arriving at American carriers?

As for your reference to "public statements", as I say, this is a face-saving exercise. The carriers wanted some market validation, but they didn't want to publicly humiliate BB in the process. Hence, the suggestion that this is a technical delay as opposed to a deliberate business decision.

I don't think the extended testing procedures are a result of bottlenecking of the testing phase. I think it really is a long and extensive testing procedure.

I know for a fact that one carrier has a quite complex, migrated network (from buying up, and merging with their own, many small regional carriers), and they're not simply riding around in a black vans testing the 4G-LTE capabilities and browsing speeds.

I don't think its a matter of does the phone do this task without a fail. Its more of a, will it do this task so many predetermined times, for this predetermined time frame, with less than a predetermined number of fails. Each aspect of the phone would face the same relentless scenarios, repeated while operating on different portions (and different types) of the carrier's network. Some 4G-LTE, some 3G, how does it negotiate travelling from one to the other, and then roam to the extended network or another carrier.

Its got to be certified, and to be certified it has to meet predetermined standards, and if one of those is time, then time it is. But if it really is outsourced as I suspect, by a certified testing lab, then there are most likely contracts and liability clauses in place, that aren't going to be sidelined for one device.

Its not the first time the US hasn't received a product first. It won't be the last.

Carriers have had the phone for a little over 4 months now I believe. That's not really outrageous to me for them to still be undergoing testing.

This isn't business as usual for BlackBerry, so we can't really compare this to previous device releases.

Anyway, this is getting a little deep now, and I'm only here for the light hearted speculation anyway...... now its time for bed, early flight tomorrow....