[app_Developer]

Bad analogy.

What analogy? I wasn't laying out an analogy at all, I was describing precisely and directly what the reporters and analysts actually did. They were rounding numbers to the nearest tenth of a unit, like we all learned to do in primary school. This isn't analogous to what they did, it *is* what they did.

You can't dance around the issue that if you were a primary school teacher and a student rounded 0.03 to anything other than 0.0 (when asked to round to the nearest tenth), you would mark that answer as wrong. The correct answer to that question is very clearly and unequivocally 0.0.


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[ray689]

This actually describes the people you'd consider positive as well. I mean, why does either group bother, right?

That group you speak of bothers because they genuinely want BlackBerry to succeed and have hope it will...the ones who shouldn't bother are the ones who have already proclaimed the death of BlackBerry. They are fully entitled to do so but if that's how they feel then they surely look like fools to continue to waste their time here. Yes yes, I get it people can post wherever they want blah blah blah. Just because they exercise that right, doesn't mean it doesn't make them look like absolute fools for spending time on something they've declared won't exist in short order. Get it now?

Posted via CB10

[Omnitech]

What analogy? I wasn't laying out an analogy at all, I was describing precisely and directly what the reporters and analysts actually did. They were rounding numbers to the nearest tenth of a unit, like we all learned to do in primary school.

Thanks for the gratuitous insult, as if I don't understand what rounding means.

First of all, they are not rounding to the nearest tenth of (some kind of) unit. If the "unit" we are talking about is "percentage", and the "unit" is a whole number, then at least in terms of the example *I* gave (the "0.0%" BS that BGR wrote that in-turn got re-published all over the world), they were rounding to the nearest WHOLE unit (ie rounding ".4%" to "zero"), but printing it with an additional decimal place, despite the fact they were not actually rounding it to tenths, but rounding it to whole integers, which gives a false impression of precision which does not exist.

Furthermore, my point remains: there are still jellybeans being sold. It is not "zero", it is not "0.0%", it is not "nothing" - no matter how earnestly some people would like that to be so.

As the old saying goes: "'Almost' only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades"

[app_Developer]

And to app developer, having an interest in something and discussing it openly is certainly not the same as continually making the same negative post over and over and over.

You'll notice this thread started with an OP spinning these new results as positive news. As someone who follows this company, I disagree that this report is a positive sign for the company, and so that is what I have written on this topic.

We get it and we understand the hurdles in the way. Now rather than continually hammering that point across, how about discuss what needs to happen to fix it...since you and garnock are so interested and all.

Posted via CB10

I've written about that in many other threads. They have a real opportunity with BBM, but they have to find expert developers and UX folks who understand Android and iOS and can make it the best option on those platforms. That opportunity won't exist forever, and so they need to move on that now. If that means opening a BBM development facility in SV, near Chen, then they should do that immediately.

Then BES12 is a great idea, they need to focus on getting that out of the door with great quality. They can afford no excuses there. They're going to get approximately zero benefit of the doubt from OCIOs there. They should expect that, understand it, and knock that one out of the park.

On the high end all-touch phones, they need to decide in the next few months whether that business even makes sense anymore. I think the answer is probably it doesn't.

I'm glad that Chen isn't a PollyAnna himself. He seems far from that. He also isn't emotionally invested in any decisions BB have made in the past, or any of their products, so that allows him to make some rational decisions including maybe halting the high end consumer phone business.


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[ray689]

You'll notice this thread started with an OP spinning these new results as positive news. As someone who follows this company, I disagree that this report is a positive sign for the company, and so that is what I have written on this topic.



I've written about that in many other threads. They have a real opportunity with BBM, but they have to find expert developers and UX folks who understand Android and iOS and can make it the best option on those platforms. That opportunity won't exist forever, and so they need to move on that now. If that means opening a BBM development facility in SV, near Chen, then they should do that immediately.

Then BES12 is a great idea, they need to focus on getting that out of the door with great quality. They can afford no excuses there. They're going to get approximately zero benefit of the doubt from OCIOs there. They should expect that, understand it, and knock that one out of the park.

On the high end all-touch phones, they need to decide in the next few months whether that business even makes sense anymore. I think the answer is probably it doesn't.

I'm glad that Chen isn't a PollyAnna himself. He seems far from that. He also isn't emotionally invested in any decisions BB has made in the past, or any of their products, so that allows him to make some rational decisions including maybe halting the high end consumer phone business.


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That is a post I can at least discuss rather than focusing on how to round numbers.
I agree that Chen seems like the type who will make decisions that will be best and they do still have a lot of opportunities that he will no doubt do what he can to capitalize on.

Posted via CB10

[tchocky77]

Bla bla bla from the usual suspects.

Like I said, none of this is surprising. We know their marketshare is low and dropping almost everywhere. The products are not being promoted, they have largely disappeared from stores in many places, salespeople are badmouthing both the company and product incessantly, these are FACTS.

Anyone who DOES find it a big surprise that their marketshare is low and dropping I think needs to re-calibrate their reality sensor.

Either that or stop constantly looking for excuses to tell everyone here how horrible the company is doing.

Yeah, we got it. BlackBerry is not selling many phones.

Let's hear it for the 347,338,121st time.

Eeyore would be proud.

I admit I am seriously fascinated by your ability to blame literally anything and everything for blackberry's position except blackberry.

[Omnitech]

I admit I am seriously fascinated by your ability to blame literally anything and everything for blackberry's position except blackberry.

And I am seriously "WTF" about your ability to think that everything I write is about blameshifting BlackBerry.

You need to do a better job of comprehending what people write, and take off those weird glasses of yours or something.

I'm beginning to wonder if you are a bad AI posting bot.

BAD BLACKBERRY, BAD BLACKBERRY, EXTERMINATE... E-X-T-E-R-M-I-N-A-T-E!!!!

[tchocky77]

I know sales people and the press are favorite whipping-boys. But whatever. If I'm wrong I apologize.

Cool robots.

[sayf777]

Posted via CB10

[red_devil_fan_1999]

It's not a matter of comfort, it's a matter of rounding something down to "nothing" that is not "nothing".

Rounding from "23" to "24" is one thing, rounding from something "more than zero" to "zero" is another matter entirely.





It's positive in the sense that it could be much worse, that is all.

If you tell someone with a terminal illness that they are likely going to live 6 months rather than the 2 weeks you previously estimated, that's "good news". Sure it's not good news for someone in good health and no terminal illness, it's a matter of context.




And as people get increasingly fed-up with being gouged by US carriers, which have probably the highest cellular service prices in the world in a major country, that is going to change. The recent congressional move to stop this stupid ban on unlocking phones is just the tip of the iceberg.

You just compared a terminally ill person to Blackberry. You realise terminally ill means that a person is very sick and realistically nothing more can be done for them, barring some sort of divine intervention.

[cgk]

Not that bad if we compare to other sources/news/speculations.
Warning : Comscore is often disputed as valid ... Salt it.

You know I like you superfly but it seems that no matter how many times the difference between user base and market share is explained to you a few weeks later you 'forget'...

sent from my bright red Nexus 5

[AnimalPak200]

All Hail the Windows percentages... for they show a few statistically-significant dissenters within the masses bravely buying something other than apple and Samsu--i mean--Android.



Posted via CB10

[cgk]

All Hail the Windows percentages... for they show a few statistically-significant dissenters within the masses bravely buying something other than apple and Samsu--i mean--Android.



Posted via CB10

Outside the US, WP is showing decent growth, it is certainly leaving BB10 behind for the vital third place also-ran position.

sent from my bright red Nexus 5

[richardat]

Bla bla bla from the usual suspects.

Like I said, none of this is surprising. We know their marketshare is low and dropping almost everywhere. The products are not being promoted, they have largely disappeared from stores in many places, salespeople are badmouthing both the company and product incessantly, these are FACTS.

Anyone who DOES find it a big surprise that their marketshare is low and dropping I think needs to re-calibrate their reality sensor.

Either that or stop constantly looking for excuses to tell everyone here how horrible the company is doing.

Yeah, we got it. BlackBerry is not selling many phones.

Let's hear it for the 347,338,121st time.

Eeyore would be proud.

This is totally unfair. First, there is no point in blasting superfly and claiming he wanted to simply create a negative thread about BB. I don't know his motivation for sure, but if anything, his posting history suggests that though his reasoning is a bit crazy-train, he genuinely believes this to a positive for BB as claimed.

What makes your post worse is that if anyone was disingenuous it was you, since you conflated userbase with market share and attempted to claim others were wrong based on that. Since you were corrected by multiple people, and have neither apologized or acknowledged the mistake, I tend to believe that you know you were in error (purposeful or not), to be quite blunt: trying to avoid it by claiming others are at fault when they are forced to correct this is not the behavior of an honest man.

[AnimalPak200]

Outside the US, WP is showing decent growth, it is certainly leaving BB10 behind for the vital third place also-ran position.

sent from my bright red Nexus 5

So it seems. I'm content as long as there is any demand justifying a third alternative. Otherwise we'll be stuck with two and no one else ever bothering to give us something new.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

I don't worry about it, something will come up but it is likely to be something and some company none of us are currently considering rather than an also ran from the past.

sent from my bright red Nexus 5

[richardat]

It's not a matter of comfort, it's a matter of rounding something down to "nothing" that is not "nothing".

Rounding from "23" to "24" is one thing, rounding from something "more than zero" to "zero" is another matter entirely..

No, app developer is quite right. Actually it's the opposite: they are exactly the same. The only difference is in your personal, and in this case, emotional, reaction to the particular number. "zero" sounds bad to you, so you get upset, but it is just another number - the same as 23. There are circumstance where "23" or 273" or .000032 will be of more import to somebody in their data

. In this case however, I do understand, and CB was ample evidence of this, that many have difficulty understanding this, and react badly to "zero", so perhaps an editorial board might want to rethink, and make a special exception for that value in these cases, but of course, a statistician/scientist/logician would probably find the notion abhorrent! lol

[TGR1]

No, app developer is quite right. Actually it's the opposite: they are exactly the same. The only difference is in your personal, and in this case, emotional, reaction to the particular number. "zero" sounds bad to you, so you get upset, but it is just another number - the same as 23. There are circumstance where "23" or 273" or .000032 will be of more import to somebody in their data

. In this case however, I do understand, and CB was ample evidence of this, that many have difficulty understanding this, and react badly to "zero", so perhaps an editorial board might want to rethink, and make a special exception for that value in these cases, but of course, a statistician/scientist/logician would probably find the notion abhorrent! lol

Hmm. Sounds as if the concept of significant figures is lost on some here.

I suppose ">0.1%" could be accurate (I don't know precision of the reported numbers) but I imagine some people would still scream about that.

[richardat]

Bad analogy.

Here's a better one:

The jar holds 200 jellybeans. The jar is 10" tall. The bottom 1" of the jar is opaque, the top 9" of the jar is clear. You eat jellybeans until no more are visible. Are you out of jellybeans?

Or:

The jar holds 100 jellybeans. But you can only count jellybeans in increments of 10, because your eyesight isn't very good. You take 91 jellybeans out. Are there any more jellybeans left?
.

Incorrect. Your analogy is not appropriate to the situation. What I believe you are attempting to illustrate is a lack of resolution - which isn't the issue anyone else was interested in (to my knowledge). I think for most people, the rounding to a single percentage point is sufficiently precise.....though, perhaps you also object and vex about whether android has say....52.4 or 52,7 percent...lol.

We can easily illustrate this by modifying your analogy. Your analogy relies on using a resolution that seems ridiculous to us (by the standards of every day common sense) in the hopes that we then say "oh, that is ridiculous! Rounding is inappropriate!!", instead of "oh, that is ridiculous! We need a more sensitive metric!"

To do that, we could simply say: you have a jar of 100 jelly beans, you eat them all, and the jar is empty, save the remains of half jelly-bean. Somebody asks you: how many jelly beans are left? Is it unreasonable to say: none are left? Of course. Uh oh.....rounding!!! Hey, don't forget the additional 1/3 of a jelly bean in jelly bean detritus!!

[Omnitech]

You just compared a terminally ill person to Blackberry. You realise terminally ill means that a person is very sick and realistically nothing more can be done for them, barring some sort of divine intervention.

And what is so bad about that? People have been predicting the demise (ie DEATH) of BlackBerry for years now.

It's a perfect comparison.

And I don't believe in divine intervention, so that doesn't even come into the picture here.

[Omnitech]

This is totally unfair. First, there is no point in blasting superfly and claiming he wanted to simply create a negative thread about BB.

LOL. Where did I do this? Please quote the words and provide a link.

What makes your post worse is that if anyone was disingenuous it was you, since you conflated userbase with market share and attempted to claim others were wrong based on that. Since you were corrected by multiple people, and have neither apologized or acknowledged the mistake, I tend to believe that you know you were in error (purposeful or not), to be quite blunt: trying to avoid it by claiming others are at fault when they are forced to correct this is not the behavior of an honest man.

Richard, you are trying way, WAY too hard to stir up something with me.

I suggest you stop now, along with your habit of personalizing debates here in general.

[richardat]

[QUOTE=cgk;10096993]Outside the US, WP is showing decent growth, it is certainly leaving BB10 behind for the vital third place also-ran position.

Havent' fanboy bashed MS in a while, so let me say if their is any reason I actually hate BB there it is! Curses to you BB - for giving winphone an....uh...ordinal boast! lol!

Frack. I think we should have at least 3 viable alternatives....but I want MS DEAD DEAD DEAD. Don't give them a way out into the new OS paradigms!!!

Fanboy rant over. I suppose at least a distant 3rd MS will not have the leverage to harm the whole industry like they did on the desktop!

[Omnitech]

No, app developer is quite right. Actually it's the opposite: they are exactly the same. The only difference is in your personal, and in this case, emotional, reaction to the particular number.

And I suggest you stop trying so hard to stir things up with me, with these personalized attacks. K?

"zero" sounds bad to you

No, zero is an inaccurate characterization. When you take 91 jellybeans out of the jar of 100, do you have any jellybeans left?

It seems that your answer is "No". Correct?

so you get upset

Stop making stupid presumptions about my alleged emotional state and stick to the subject, Richard.

that many have difficulty understanding this, and react badly to "zero"

The "reaction" (otherwise known as correction) is because the way it was characterized is statistically misleading.

[Omnitech]

What I believe you are attempting to illustrate is a lack of resolution - which isn't the issue anyone else was interested in (to my knowledge).

Then you are clearly either not paying attention or throwing out data that doesn't mesh with your biases, because there were MANY PEOPLE angry about BGR's characterization, just on these forums. Did you just conveniently ignore all of that?

I think for most people, the rounding to a single percentage point is sufficiently precise

Thanks, but you do not speak for "most people", no matter how you may wish it so.

[sati01]

I've written about that in many other threads. They have a real opportunity with BBM, but they have to find expert developers and UX folks who understand Android and iOS and can make it the best option on those platforms. That opportunity won't exist forever, and so they need to move on that now. If that means opening a BBM development facility in SV, near Chen, then they should do that immediately.

I'm surprised by the slow adoption of BBM, the situation doesn't look good. The consolidation of the messaging market probably will produce a scenario where one app takes most of the market in each country and many small apps will be used by specific groups or corner cases.
In how many countries BBM is leading? Just a few and all of them are emerging markets, where the online advertising business is almost nonexistent.

In 2015 internet.org will be giving for free Facebook and WhatsApp data plans on a more massive scale in emerging markets.