12-23-12 09:28 AM
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  1. GTiLeo's Avatar
    Not exactly. BIS is going away for BB10 devices as we may now it now (and is still operating "as-is" for BB5-7 devices). But new services (yet unveiled) are going to pop and generate revenues, based on the same network operating environment. Looks like this environement will be sliced in different stacks, depending on what consumer wants.
    I believe the list starts with BBM (with several levels for txt only, chat/video ???) but also "on demand" services, hosted apps, cloud storage ...
    Also add all the industrial channel with QNX devices (connected to the manufacturer for maintenance in cars for example).

    At the end, I wonder how many users will choose not to subscribe the whole thing if the extra cost does not exceed $1-2 (say for full BBM + Protect ?) per month.
    Look at how much some can pay for cloud services (while they could use free alternatives) just because it's ffully integrated in their environment ...

    I believe Thor has blured the picture as the stock price is not relevant for now and RIM wants the full monty to append on Jan. 30th.
    you many be right, personally for a few bucks extra i don't see wha tthe fuss is abotu the extra fees, its only but a fraction of my total bill cost and if $4 a month will break the bank one must be doing soemthign seriously wrong
    12-21-12 06:58 AM
  2. bk1022's Avatar
    RIM can for a couple of dollars a month release a data compression subscriber service for all platforms. They don't need carrier permission to do this and it will make them have to offer value for it.

    You should be able to download RIM's browser, pay for a compression service of 500MB/mo directly with RIM and then the RIM browser can use compression on any mobile platform.

    Want quick push email? Same thing. Download an app and now you have it if you paid a sub fee.

    Want BBM for your company? Pay a small fee. This is how to generate revenue. And these applications do not belong to a single mobile platform anymore.

    If BB10 is so great, let it compete straight up. RIM can't afford to cripple some of its core revenue potential just to leverage that to make BB10 look better.
    undone and anon(4086547) like this.
    12-21-12 07:00 AM
  3. lnichols's Avatar
    They basically said in the call that fees from consumers, and small business who only need Active Sync support and not the security of the BES will see the fees hit hardest (i.e. I take this as probably going away or so low they won't be much of a factor). So the consumer side is probably going to have BBM and BB based services like Travel, Maps, etc. just be a value add, and maybe they can convince the carriers to give em a buck or two a month, but not the $5 we have for BBOS devices that rely on the BIS for basic functions. Every BES CAL sold RIM makes money on and maybe RIM will keep fees with the carriers for BES access. Plus with an app rich platform that will be more of a source of revenue for RIM than what it previously was as they will get a cut from every sale. Carrier Billing will be new money. NFC and mobile wallets could be an area of new money. Sounds like they might be willing to make BBM a paid service for other platforms which could be more money. Things will be changing in the ways RIM gets money, but sounds like they have a potential for much more revenue than BBOS service fees could provide.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    12-21-12 08:01 AM
  4. Foreverup's Avatar
    woah woah woah.....BB Balanace can be made available on droid and ios?
    Yes it can, but a company would need Mobile Fusion so it will still bring in service fees to RIM
    12-21-12 08:13 AM
  5. undone's Avatar
    RIM can for a couple of dollars a month release a data compression subscriber service for all platforms. They don't need carrier permission to do this and it will make them have to offer value for it.

    You should be able to download RIM's browser, pay for a compression service of 500MB/mo directly with RIM and then the RIM browser can use compression on any mobile platform.

    Want quick push email? Same thing. Download an app and now you have it if you paid a sub fee.

    Want BBM for your company? Pay a small fee. This is how to generate revenue. And these applications do not belong to a single mobile platform anymore.

    If BB10 is so great, let it compete straight up. RIM can't afford to cripple some of its core revenue potential just to leverage that to make BB10 look better.
    Even better they have the Carriers support an additional BB data plan that offers an unlimited data (or unlimited BBM usage, voice, txt, etc). Carriers NEEEEEEEDDDD the compression on there networks, they are over subscribed. BB devices can and should be a target device for carriers to push. Why else would the carriers be excited to offer BB devices? They will have some BB only plans, much like I have today with my current BB device, but it will be a choice vs needed.
    12-21-12 08:31 AM
  6. anon1727506's Avatar
    Yes it can, but a company would need Mobile Fusion so it will still bring in service fees to RIM
    How is BB Balance going to work on Droid and iOS??
    12-21-12 08:43 AM
  7. ADGrant's Avatar
    you many be right, personally for a few bucks extra i don't see wha tthe fuss is abotu the extra fees, its only but a fraction of my total bill cost and if $4 a month will break the bank one must be doing soemthign seriously wrong
    You may be willing to pay $4 a month extra but most customers will not. They can have iCloud and iMessage for free or Whatsapp for 99 cents (free for iOS right now).

    RIM will compete with Good in the secure email space and may to quite well. It's service revenues in the consumer space are going to disappear along with BB OS 7 (outside some emerging markets and perhaps some prepay providers).
    12-21-12 09:05 AM
  8. BBThemes's Avatar
    You may be willing to pay $4 a month extra but most customers will not. They can have iCloud and iMessage for free or Whatsapp for 99 cents (free for iOS right now).

    RIM will compete with Good in the secure email space and may to quite well. It's service revenues in the consumer space are going to disappear along with BB OS 7 (outside some emerging markets and perhaps some prepay providers).
    yes BBOS7 will `dissapear` but i think your being a bit over dramatic, people are signed into 2 or 3 year contracts, so thats not like the revenues from BBOS will suddenly drop off a cliff in jan 30th.
    12-21-12 09:07 AM
  9. undone's Avatar
    You may be willing to pay $4 a month extra but most customers will not. They can have iCloud and iMessage for free or Whatsapp for 99 cents (free for iOS right now).

    RIM will compete with Good in the secure email space and may to quite well. It's service revenues in the consumer space are going to disappear along with BB OS 7 (outside some emerging markets and perhaps some prepay providers).
    Your assuming the carriers dont just bundle the BB devices into there own plan. Its not a bad thing from the carrier perspective to have a device with compression using less data on there network.
    12-21-12 09:12 AM
  10. ADGrant's Avatar
    yes BBOS7 will `dissapear` but i think your being a bit over dramatic, people are signed into 2 or 3 year contracts, so thats not like the revenues from BBOS will suddenly drop off a cliff in jan 30th.
    People in North America haven't been signing 2 year contracts with BB 7 devices too much lately. The BIS subscriber base dropped by 1 million worldwide. I am sure it dropped a lot more in the US.

    I am not suggesting that BIS subscriber numbers will drop off a cliff Jan 30th but it they will continue to drop, particularly in the US.
    12-21-12 09:18 AM
  11. anon(1152406)'s Avatar
    Does anyone have a sense of how mobile fusion is doing in the marketplace? I work for a rather large company who has always had a history of supporting RIM (we support the PlayBook and will support BB10 at launch). We also support iPhones and I know our IT group is firm in using mobileiron with no plans to use mobile fusion... I don't think they are the only one either. Anyone else know if their company plans to use it?

    On a somewhat related note, Chris was quoted on BNN:

    "Even those people rooting for RIM to succeed in the market place expressed some worry about the changes to the company's valuable service revenues, which bring in per-device fees from wireless operators that has been estimated at about 95 percent profit. Writing on Twitter, Chris Umiastowski, a former Bay Street analyst, wrote: "Okay RIMM acknowledged the service fee risks head on. Good for them. But it is a huge risk. Some (subscribers) will generate no fees. None."
    12-21-12 09:26 AM
  12. randall2580's Avatar
    you many be right, personally for a few bucks extra i don't see wha tthe fuss is abotu the extra fees, its only but a fraction of my total bill cost and if $4 a month will break the bank one must be doing soemthign seriously wrong
    I can't speak for other places in the world but here in the USA the majors are moving to the shared data buckets and then smartphones connect to the bucket at $30 a time. Right now if you connect an Android or an iPhone - the 2 majors get all $30. If you connect a BB - the carrier pays the BB service fee out of the $30. So in effect - the other 2 are larger profit centers than BB is if nothing changed, carriers would have incentive to move you to the other two (Android and iPhone).

    So what RIM has to do is take this from invisible to visible, and either make the services cost plus (you pay the $30 to connect and then add BBM, BIS, whatever other services RIM will peddle) so that the carrier makes as much from BB as they do the other 2, or you make it a subscription like any other service. You get a BB10 phone that does active sync - no BIS - no BBM out of the box. You want those services, you buy the app from BlackBerry World, and pay a monthly/yearly service fee to maintain the services.

    Then the question comes, will people pay for those services when they are cost plus?
    12-21-12 09:35 AM
  13. undone's Avatar
    I can't speak for other places in the world but here in the USA the majors are moving to the shared data buckets and then smartphones connect to the bucket at $30 a time. Right now if you connect an Android or an iPhone - the 2 majors get all $30. If you connect a BB - the carrier pays the BB service fee out of the $30. So in effect - the other 2 are larger profit centers than BB is if nothing changed, carriers would have incentive to move you to the other two (Android and iPhone).

    So what RIM has to do is take this from invisible to visible, and either make the services cost plus (you pay the $30 to connect and then add BBM, BIS, whatever other services RIM will peddle) so that the carrier makes as much from BB as they do the other 2, or you make it a subscription like any other service. You get a BB10 phone that does active sync - no BIS - no BBM out of the box. You want those services, you buy the app from BlackBerry World, and pay a monthly/yearly service fee to maintain the services.

    Then the question comes, will people pay for those services when they are cost plus?
    I'd pay for unlimited data that was slower (because of compression and BIS support) if its a BB only plan.
    12-21-12 10:03 AM
  14. Foreverup's Avatar
    How is BB Balance going to work on Droid and iOS??
    Mobile Fusion creates a separate work section on an Android and IOS that the BES server controls. It is separate from the person content of the phone.
    12-21-12 10:04 AM
  15. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Mobile Fusion creates a separate work section on an Android and IOS that the BES server controls. It is separate from the person content of the phone.
    it is an encrypted container, all of it happening within an app. This is not always going to be the case however. RIM is planning to change how they do this.
    12-21-12 10:06 AM
  16. timmy t's Avatar
    Chris - thanks for all the helpful articles

    I'd like to look at the service fees in a little more detail using your numbers/assumptions from your article today:
    Chris on BIS fees:"I'd estimate it now sits at $2-4 per month in most markets"
    Chris on BIS/BES split: "If I had to guess I would say BIS subscribers make up about 80% of RIM's total subscriber base. BES subscribers are the remaining 20%."

    So, if we round to 80 million subscribers (just to keep the math easier), then

    BIS subscribers = 80M * 80% = 64M * ~$3/month * 3 months/quarter = $576M
    BES subscribers = 80M * 20% = 16M --> total monthy service revenues = $1000M - $576M = $424 M (or $424/16/3 = $8.8 /sub/month)

    So the BIS fees are under threat, and they are close to 60% of the total? The (corrected) BES fees I would guess are about $9/month/user - assuming that something like Good on an iPhone would be about the same.

    Hopefully they can hold onto the BES fees while introducing a tiered BIS plan (and retaining at least some of the $576M)

    There is also some potential to gain Fusion customers on other platforms as well

    What do you think? Of course the service fees are high margin....
    I think you forgot the fact that only 75% of BB owners pay for BIS. Presumably, that could also be BES.
    12-21-12 10:08 AM
  17. timmy t's Avatar
    'Yup, your right, your opinion is all that matters, you win!'

    I think you mean "you're right".
    12-21-12 10:11 AM
  18. timmy t's Avatar
    Your assuming the carriers dont just bundle the BB devices into there own plan. Its not a bad thing from the carrier perspective to have a device with compression using less data on there network.
    You're assuming. their own plan. their network.
    12-21-12 10:13 AM
  19. Foreverup's Avatar
    it is an encrypted container, all of it happening within an app. This is not always going to be the case however. RIM is planning to change how they do this.
    What changes are they going to make?
    12-21-12 10:28 AM
  20. undone's Avatar
    You're assuming. their own plan. their network.
    I am making an assumption based upon my own existing plan which is in fact a BB plan. When I got my first BB it was under a BB plan. Tho data plans have changed since that point, there is no reason to think they (carriers) couldn't still charge a little more for a BB device on their network. BB devices with compression means more devices on their networks and with companies like Verizon remarking on underestimating there growth in bandwidth (and carriers trying to get more spectrum) I can't see them turning down RIM completely on BIS. Changing the fees (going from 5 to 2 dollars for example), yea, that I get, so it would make sense the revenue streams would change.
    12-21-12 12:42 PM
  21. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    What changes are they going to make?
    I have to admit, I'm not clear on what Sith was talking about either, but yes, BB Balance is already available on OS7, iOS, and Android.

    In terms of design it works the same on all three; it's a segregated, encrypted sandbox that admins can pull the plug on at any time. At this point, the biggest differences relate to how the user interacts with it. As Sith says, on the other platforms it's an app that the user opens to enter the work environment. On BB10 it's an alternate environment with hooks into the main one. Not sure how it works on BB6/7.

    But, yes, it requires Fusion.

    The point I was making with it is that Fusion is an easier upgrade for an existing BES customer than changing to a completely different MDM platform, and trust me, IT departments prefer easy upgrades whenever they're an option. Once a shop is on Fusion, they can support any platform that RIM has produced an Fusion client for, and at this point that includes iOS and Android.
    TheScionicMan likes this.
    12-21-12 01:54 PM
  22. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Does anyone have a sense of how mobile fusion is doing in the marketplace?
    I'd like to know this too. My uneducated guess that - at best - it's being piloted or evaluated in places.
    12-21-12 02:01 PM
  23. ADGrant's Avatar
    I have to admit, I'm not clear on what Sith was talking about either, but yes, BB Balance is already available on OS7, iOS, and Android.

    In terms of design it works the same on all three; it's a segregated, encrypted sandbox that admins can pull the plug on at any time. At this point, the biggest differences relate to how the user interacts with it. As Sith says, on the other platforms it's an app that the user opens to enter the work environment. On BB10 it's an alternate environment with hooks into the main one. Not sure how it works on BB6/7.

    But, yes, it requires Fusion.

    The point I was making with it is that Fusion is an easier upgrade for an existing BES customer than changing to a completely different MDM platform, and trust me, IT departments prefer easy upgrades whenever they're an option. Once a shop is on Fusion, they can support any platform that RIM has produced an Fusion client for, and at this point that includes iOS and Android.
    That I very similar to how Good works on iPhone and android devices.
    12-21-12 03:03 PM
  24. samab's Avatar
    RIM can for a couple of dollars a month release a data compression subscriber service for all platforms. They don't need carrier permission to do this and it will make them have to offer value for it.
    The problem is that there is no place for data compression in the first world --- we, the consumers, all want to see the full internet, all the youtube videos... You can't compress a youtube video further --- it has already been compressed using the most efficient codec on earth.
    12-21-12 03:07 PM
  25. Dapper37's Avatar
    I'd like to know this too. My uneducated guess that - at best - it's being piloted or evaluated in places.
    Good guess as its been reported as such recently.
    12-22-12 07:14 AM
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