1. kelexiong's Avatar
    We all know that Blackberry currently has around 79 million subscribers and lost around 1 million subscribers in the previous quarter. I was looking at their latest financial statements and it seems like Blackberry will change their methodology they use to calculate their subscriber count:

    As a result of the changes and the continuing pressure to reduce infrastructure access fees described above, the Company anticipates further declines in its service revenue in the coming quarters, which could be significant. The Company cannot predict this anticipated rate of decline with any degree of certainty as it is dependent on a number of factors, including the outcome of commercial arrangement negotiations with the Company’s carrier customers, the rate at which current BlackBerry 6 and BlackBerry 7 customers migrate to Blackberry 10 to use only standard BlackBerry services, the Company’s ability to attract new enterprise customers to use the enhanced services offered by BlackBerry 10, the Company’s ability to sustain its infrastructure access fees for its BlackBerry 6 and BlackBerry 7 products, and the Company’s ability to successfully develop over a transition period a compelling integrated services and software offering that generates other service and software revenues from the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform to help mitigate the impact of the anticipated decline in infrastructure access fees. If the Company is unable to mitigate the decline of service revenue relating to infrastructure access fees in the manner described above, this could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s results of operations and financial condition.

    To reflect the changes described above, and to better address possible future strategies and service and software revenue opportunities related to an integrated services and software offering for the BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform, RIM will be adjusting the methodology it uses to calculate the size of its subscriber base for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 and subsequent fiscal quarters. Rather than calculating the total of all subscriber accounts that have an active status at the end of a reporting period and for which infrastructure access fees are thereby generated, RIM will identify its BlackBerry subscriber base as the total of all BlackBerry subscriber accounts that are provisioned to access BlackBerry services, regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access fees from each such subscriber in any given month. The Company believes this change will better reflect the base of BlackBerry users that may contribute to service revenues in the future, whether solely through infrastructure access fees or the integrated service and software offering being developed.
    Source: http://us.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf

    What does "provisioned to access BlackBerry services" mean? Is every Z10 that is sold provisioned to access BlackBerry services?
    02-05-13 05:31 PM
  2. howarmat's Avatar
    We all know that Blackberry currently has around 79 million subscribers and lost around 1 million subscribers in the previous quarter. I was looking at their latest financial statements and it seems like Blackberry will change their methodology they use to calculate their subscriber count:



    Source: http://us.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf

    What does "provisioned to access BlackBerry services" mean? Is every Z10 that is sold provisioned to access BlackBerry services?
    no they are not so i guess numbers go down even though they will be gaining users?
    02-05-13 05:36 PM
  3. donmateo's Avatar
    I would assume that is pre-BB10 and BB10 will be based off sales, but that would be just a guess.
    02-05-13 05:41 PM
  4. kelexiong's Avatar
    Well, they say they'll be including subscribers "regardless of whether RIM is receiving infrastructure access fees", so my initial read is that the change in methodology would cause their subscriber count should go up. But it's not very clear.
    02-05-13 05:41 PM
  5. howarmat's Avatar
    Actually it's unclear because they say accounts. That might mean bbids but it's not clear
    02-05-13 05:44 PM
  6. kill_9's Avatar
    no they are not so i guess numbers go down even though they will be gaining users?
    The distinction comes down to paying subscribers versus no-paying service-accessing users. It appears as though BlackBerry is moving to a revenue model based upon hardware sales, BES CAL fees while the server software is free, BlackBerry AppWorld sales of applications and other content such as music and movies, with the possibility of revenue sharing with third-party service providers such as for paying Box accounts BlackBerry might receive a flat fee. At some point BlackBerry might decide to license BlackBerry Messenger to other platforms and charge non-BlackBerry device users a monthly fee.
    02-05-13 05:47 PM

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