02-18-14 01:23 PM
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  1. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    True dat.

    I have no problem with that link OP, thanks for posting as it's generated an interesting debate.

    There's certainly confusion between the terms marketshare (new sales) & userbase (phones in hands). And they are often used interchangeably, when they shouldn't.

    The sad reality is that, by either metric, BB's slice of that pie is shrinking (seemingly ever faster).



    JBB
    Plus the only reason they still have a slice of the pie is BBOS, BB10 is the equivalent of crumbs, regardless of how much some people on CB like BB10.

    Sales of both are on their way down.


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 02:20 AM
  2. boeingrules's Avatar
    Yes you do to make the claims you're making, and thus thread isn't about how many BB10 phones are sold. Or BB7 it's about how many people have a blackberry device in the UK, if you want to discuss BB10 vs BB7 after the previous thread was shut down, start another.. thanks

    TechCraze C0008DDD1
    So even if we don't have solid facts along with a list of credible, verifiable, and trustworthy sources, we can still look at the odds. Seeing as BB7 still far outsells BB10 devices at least 4 to 1 (this is an estimate, sorry that I don't have a credible, verifiable, trustworthy source or regional breakdowns of each device) and that there were already millions of legacy devices (another estimate here) already in use in the UK, and that BB10 only sold around 5 million devices worldwide (hopefully this will be accepted as a fact) its seems very fair to say that the likelihood that there are more BB7 devices rather than BB10 devices is rather high.

    Also, I don't want to start another thread, in case you were wondering. I was just making a little comment. I think its perfectly fine to make a comment that isn't 100% related to the title of the thread without having to create an entire new discussion.
    JeepBB and kbz1960 like this.
    02-11-14 03:39 AM
  3. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    I really don't get it (and I must say I stopped reading before the mustard burned my nose [this is French expression, but I'm sure you'll get it]).
    From earlier readings, I understood some people here just don't like BB10 and praise the goodness of legacy devices and while I'm miles from sharing their point of view, they're absolutely legit claiming so; taste and colors.

    Where's the problem ?
    - Last time I read about UK sales in these forums, market shares were allegedly "bleeding" and reduced to "dismall". They're not (1).
    - Legacy lovers should rejoice, at this will probably lead BBOS7 to last longer and get some improvements
    - "New power generation" is glad because it means that there's more cash in the bank than alleged.

    How's that it could turn to anything bad in the current context (1) ?

    That's good news to me, thanks OP for sharing.
    But BB7 users cannot rejoice, with all cash spent in BB10 there isn't much for BB7 users to look forward to. We can only look back and say "we told you so" , that's about it.

    Unless BB have been secretly working on an updated 9900 with BB8 there's nothing to be happy about, this is only prolonging the misery.

    It proves one thing, no matter how good BB10 might be it's not what BB users wanted from BlackBerry.

    Sure I can use legacy for a while longer but then what?





    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 03:47 AM
  4. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    But BB7 users cannot rejoice, with all cash spent in BB10 there isn't much for BB7 users to look forward to. We can only look back and say "we told you so" , that's about it.

    Unless BB have been secretly working on an updated 9900 with BB8 there's nothing to be happy about, this is only prolonging the misery.

    It proves one thing, no matter how good BB10 might be it's not what BB users wanted from BlackBerry.

    Sure I can use legacy for a while longer but then what?
    That's an endless discussion we have all over the forums. If I apply the same reasoning than you, what we can observe is that legacy devices user base market share has decreased with such a magnitude during the last 4 years we can really doubt there's anything to expect from legacy users expansion.
    It's not about adding speed, specs or UI coating; it's about the whole "philosophy" of the OS. I can perfectly understand that your preference goes to the ancient logic and I even appreciate it, because it helps the transition. But this transition is mandatory and I believe BB10 has far more adaptive capabilities than BBOS7. Legacy has reached a point where adding anything will result in a patchwork while its strength is precisely its finite and well defined features and options.

    Let me say it the hard way : future is not anymore with conservative users. At a certain point, you cannot save the goat and the cabbage. That's what BB10 is about and that's why the transition is so touchy.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 02-11-14 at 05:48 AM. Reason: market share VS user base, sry
    kbz1960, tinochiko and spikesolie like this.
    02-11-14 04:15 AM
  5. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    That's an endless discussion we have all over the forums. If I apply the same reasoning than you, what we can observe is that legacy devices user base shrink-ed with such a magnitude during the last 4 years we can really doubt there's anything to expect from legacy users expansion.
    It's not about adding speed, specs or UI coating; it's about the whole "philosophy" of the OS. I can perfectly understand that your preference goes to the ancient logic and I even appreciate it, because it helps the transition. But this transition is mandatory and I believe BB10 has far more adaptive capabilities than BBOS7. Legacy has reached a point where adding anything will result in a patchwork while its strength is precisely its finite and well defined features and options.

    Let me say it the hard way : future is not anymore with conservative users. At a certain point, you cannot save the goat and the cabbage. That's what BB10 is about and that's why the transition is so touchy.
    Sorry but that's wrong, legacy user base only started shrinking in 2013, the peak was at 80 millions at the end of 2012 clearly coinciding with the BB10 launch. My guess is people waited to see it and then left to other platforms.

    Let's not mislead people. User base did not drop for 4 years, far from it.

    Also there is no transition to BB10, it was intended but the transition never happened.

    Sure you can't save the goat and the cabbage, but you don't trade the goat you have for the cabbage in the field.




    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    JeepBB likes this.
    02-11-14 04:20 AM
  6. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    While management thought the transition was mandatory, the user base clearly showed it's not.


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 04:30 AM
  7. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Sorry but that's wrong, legacy user base only started shrinking in 2013, the peak was at 80 millions at the end of 2012 clearly coinciding with the BB10 launch. My guess is people waited to see it and then left to other platforms.

    Let's not mislead people. User base did not drop for 4 years, far from it.

    Also there is no transition to BB10, it was intended but the transition never happened.

    Sure you can't save the goat and the cabbage, but you don't trade the goat you have for the cabbage in the field.




    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    Sorry I meant market shares. Post edited.
    02-11-14 05:47 AM
  8. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Sorry I meant market shares. Post edited.
    The irony is, while you blame BBOS for the drop in marketshare, BBOS is also the only reason BlackBerry has any marketshare left at all.

    With just 5 million BB10devices sold globally in one year and dropping sales, where do you draw the line? When do you say, ok BB10 failed, we need something else if we want to exist in the future?




    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 05:59 AM
  9. Skyforever's Avatar
    When you say "BB is making money", most people are going to interpret that as PROFITS. Every company generates REVENUE, but the amount of money that passes through the company is not nearly as important as the amount of money they KEEP (or lose).

    Sure, the enterprise sector is generating revenue, but less than before (BB had 80,000 corporate customers a couple of years ago - today they have 25,000, with about 20,000 of them still on legacy systems), and revenue from that sector is still projected to fall in the near term as more legacy customers choose other platforms and/or BYOD.

    QNX revenues are almost certainly up, but QNX represents only a tiny fraction of BB's revenues. 4 years ago, QNX's total yearly revenues (not profits, but gross income) was only $40M. That's a drop in the bucket for a company the size of BB. I wouldn't be shocked if they've doubled that, but even still, $80M is nothing for BB.

    BB's biggest source of revenue, and profits, is handset sales, but those are down to a small fraction of what they were just a couple of years ago. While I don't expect another $4.4B loss this quarter, I'm still expecting a $300-500M loss. There have been no new products for this quarter, no significant advertising, and while there have been a handful of public enterprise contracts, and I'm sure some that haven't been made public, I don't expect this Q's numbers to be much different from last Q's as far as units sold. A couple more quarters like that, and BB won't have much choice but to exist the hardware business IMO.

    I totally agree that the OS continues to get better, but the contest hasn't been OS vs. OS since 2009. The contest now is ECOSYSTEM vs. ECOSYSTEM, and when you evaluate the 4 big players in that light, the current market positions make complete sense. BB has, by far, the weakest ecosystem of the 4, and sales reflect that. Until BB can do SOMETHING to make HUGE, MASSIVE improvements to its own ecosystem, I don't see that changing. And I have no idea how BB can do that with the very limited resources they have available.

    Chen is doing the best he can with what he was given, and I'd probably have made the same decisions he has, but the odds are still very much against BB being able to continue in the hardware business over the next, say, 2-3 years. The overall company will still be here (Chen is at least that competent, I'm sure), but they may well be a software & services company 2 years from now.
    LOL I think you are wrong about BlackBerry Troy. Not everything can be accomplished in one year, some people expect to much in such a short period of time. BlackBerry's versatility capabilities (ecosystem) is much more dynamic than you give it credit for. It has improved, and is moving forward at a healthy pace. As a BlackBerry faithfull I feel BlackBerry has already achieved some small miracles with this O.S. 10.2.1. When BlackBerry first introduced BB10, unfortunately it was not quite ready and that turned off many people who had been willing to give BlackBerry a second chance. Add to that the attitude of many carrier sales people and yes BlackBerry has been given a steep mountain to climb. This in my opinion reflects more of what happened to our beloved BlackBerry BB10 sales. The way BlackBerry has been banged around so much by the media? It's a miracle BlackBerry is still around. BlackBerry has responded with a stronger, more dynamic O.S., something different enough and powerful enough to entrench itself into the inevitable climb of that mountain. A great mobile experience is possible. To be # 1 would be a dream come true for many BlackBerry faithfuls, but just to continue being a good product, good enough for people to support is more of a realistic plan for the moment. BlackBerry's ecosystem is improving exponentially in my opinion. The sales of BlackBerry phones reflect so much more than just your outlook on it. BlackBerry can compete. For now, Release the Jakarta! Once the people begin to experience BB10 as it was meant to be experienced they will embrace BlackBerry. For those BlackBerry faithfuls not yet using BB10 once you make the change and overcome the learning curse, you will better understand why BlackBerry is still the best.
    Last edited by Skyforever; 02-11-14 at 11:34 PM.
    02-11-14 06:02 AM
  10. garnok's Avatar
    i dont think BBOS 7 will help much...in the end BB userbase and marketshare will keep shrinking with or without BB10. most sales come from emerging market, people pick BBOS than BB10 because it is cheaper...

    for me, BB biggest mistake is ignoring the emerging market their stronghold, by selling expensive BB10 phone. while BB more focusing on developed market, their stronghold already taken over by samsung and dozen android vendor...now they trying to switchback their strategy again by developing BB Jakarta for emerging market.

    but looks like it is much much harder because people in emerging market already leaving BB for android, BBM available on other platform, and People already look BB brand negatively.

    maybe if BB offer cheap BB10 phone before cheap android phone catch people attention.. BB can improve BB10 sales number and make it more popular for buyer and app developer
    JeepBB likes this.
    02-11-14 06:06 AM
  11. web99's Avatar
    Sorry but that's wrong, legacy user base only started shrinking in 2013, the peak was at 80 millions at the end of 2012 clearly coinciding with the BB10 launch. My guess is people waited to see it and then left to other platforms.

    Let's not mislead people. User base did not drop for 4 years, far from it.
    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    Sorry but I have to call you out on that. The most important factor is market-share as a percentage of smartphone users, not the legacy userbase.

    If you compare BlackBerry's market-share in 2010 to late 2012, it declined significantly. This is a fact and it occurred under the BBOS platform.

    Take for example the United States , one of BlackBerry's most important markets for a significant part of the decade. In 2010, it was almost 40% of the smartphone market there. At the end of 2012 with still BBOS, it had dwindled to less than 5%.

    Even Jim B and Mike L, 2 of the staunchest BBOS supporters, who for years resisted calls from their own employees for building a new OS to compete with Apple and their ios platform saw the writing on the wall.

    If there was any way of realistically modifying BBOS to give it the functionality and features that Apple and Android devices had without having to build a new OS from scratch, they would have done so.

    The fact is that the public rejected BBOS , so staying with the status quo and continuing to improve it was pointless and would only lead to diminishing returns.

    Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10
    02-11-14 06:43 AM
  12. garnok's Avatar
    So the only solution according to garnock, Troy and Belfast is for BlackBerry to close up shop and fold because everything has and will continue to fail so why are they even operating as a company exactly?
    This is what I gather from all your posts...unless you have the solutions but just haven't shared them yet (and no BD, it's not to continue selling an OS that has no more room for growth). Come on guys....you all seem to be experts at knocking anything that anyone else says, let's hear your genius ideas because from the sounds of things any one of the 3 of you would have ensured BlackBerry's success had you been in charge. That's too bad that the board wasn't aware of your pure genius earlier on.

    Posted via CB10
    no i dont want BB to fold, they still have lot to offer with BBM and BES. i love BBM its great for my work, and offer better privacy than other IM. but for consumer market phone i think it is time for BB to give up...

    if you want my suggestion than see the above....BBM and BES as BB main business. BB still can offer phone for government, or corporate high excecutive to support their main business.

    and if they want to enter consumer market, their best way is to find other oportunity outside smartphone market....apple can survive and become the most profitable company not because of mac. they gain their momentum with ipod (mp3 player) and become large player with iPhone. many people in CB already discussing about qnx capabilites on car entertainment system...why BB not give better attention on that? it is better to create new large oportunites.
    JeepBB likes this.
    02-11-14 06:49 AM
  13. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Sorry but I have to call you out on that. The most important factor is market-share as a percentage of smartphone users, not the legacy userbase.

    If you compare BlackBerry's market-share in 2010 to late 2012, it declined significantly. This is a fact and it occurred under the BBOS platform.

    Take for example the United States , one of BlackBerry's most important markets for a significant part of the decade. In 2010, it was almost 40% of the smartphone market there. At the end of 2012 with still BBOS, it had dwindled to less than 5%.

    Even Jim B and Mike L, 2 of the staunchest BBOS supporters, who for years resisted calls from their own employees for building a new OS to compete with Apple and their ios platform saw the writing on the wall.

    If there was any way of realistically modifying BBOS to give it the functionality and features that Apple and Android devices had without having to build a new OS from scratch, they would have done so.

    The fact is that the public rejected BBOS , so staying with the status quo and continuing to improve it was pointless and would only lead to diminishing returns.

    Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10
    First of all, this thread is about user base, NOT marketshare.

    Second of all, if the public rejected BBOS that still is at number 3 in UK based on user base, what do you suppose the public thought of BB10 with only 5 million sales in one year? Does that sound like the public accepted it to you? Let's be realistic here.




    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 06:50 AM
  14. MarsupilamiX's Avatar
    I think a more fair assessment would be they are saying "BB10 has failed in the market, it's not the future" - that's not the same as "close up shop".
    And BBOS failed even harder, since it got some serious competition with the iPhone and Android.

    Since BBOS is doomed in the long run (and please, spare me the "it sold millions" comment , because obviously 99% of the market didn't care in 2013) anyway, as is BIS and the revenues associated with it...

    What's the future of BlackBerry then?
    If it isn't BB10, then BlackBerry can close their phone business anyhow.
    (I am open for discussions about a secure Android version from BlackBerry, but this is considered heresy by some members in here... Anyhow, BBOS isn't the future of BlackBerry as well, since the consumers have voted against it with their wallets.)

    Posted via CB10
    ray689, kbz1960 and Superfly_FR like this.
    02-11-14 06:53 AM
  15. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Good news Belfast, one of my sources said that BlackBerry read your posts and is abandoning all things bb10 and putting out 4 new legacy devices this year. Thanks for saving the company.

    Posted via CB10
    No need to be sarcastic, can't we have a civil conversation/debate? After all, you can argue with anything but the numbers.


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 06:56 AM
  16. cgk's Avatar
    And BBOS failed even harder, since it got some serious competition with the iPhone and Android.

    Since BBOS is doomed in the long run (and please, spare me the "it sold millions" comment , because obviously 99% of the market didn't care in 2013) anyway, as is BIS and the revenues associated with it...

    What's the future of BlackBerry then?
    If it isn't BB10, then BlackBerry can close their phone business anyhow.
    (I am open for discussions about a secure Android version from BlackBerry, but this is considered heresy by some members in here... Anyhow, BBOS isn't the future of BlackBerry as well, since the consumers have voted against it with their wallets.)

    Posted via CB10
    I completely agree that BBOS is not the future, the problem is that BB10 is a market failure and I don't think that Blackberry had the time or resources to turn that around or even the intent to do so (look at how the Z30 was pushed out in the cold to die). I think that Chen is trying to build a lean enterprise services company as quickly as possible and that the deal with Foxconn is simply a prelude to selling off the hardware side.

    That's why I think an assessment based on BBOS or BB10 is the wrong one, they are both zombie OSes - it's just that one is slowly dying and the other was DOA.
    JeepBB and Drew808 like this.
    02-11-14 06:58 AM
  17. cgk's Avatar
    Man save it, he doesn't get that BBOS had very little competitors in their days of selling millions. He also doesn't get that a brand new built from scratch platform today selling 5 million is actually not as bad as he thinks it is. I would venture to guess no other company introducing a brand new platform could do that. It will need time and attention for it to grow.

    Posted via CB10
    Given the size of the sector, the number of markets it was released in, it is actually pretty dreadful - you are maybe looking at sub-200,000 in some markets across 4 handset designs (although the Z30 and the Q5 were both likely bombs and account for a small amount). The bigger problem is that the platform doesn't seem to have ramped - the most recent phone was released on few carriers than the first and with virtually no marketing, so it is likely the first year of sales was also the peak and we are now in decline.
    JeepBB and Drew808 like this.
    02-11-14 07:01 AM
  18. ray689's Avatar
    Given the size of the sector, the number of markets it was released in, it is actually pretty dreadful - you are maybe looking at sub-200,000 in some markets across 4 handset designs (although the Z30 and the Q5 were both likely bombs and account for a small amount). The bigger problem is that the platform doesn't seem to have ramped - the most recent phone was released on few carriers than the first and with virtually no marketing, so it is likely the first year of sales was also the peak and we are now in decline.
    Again, what other smartphone OS that has just launched has done better when over 90% of the market is the big 2? Which one, let's hear it?

    Posted via CB10
    02-11-14 07:04 AM
  19. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    There is no discussion with you man. And how about you use some logic and think as to why the numbers are the way they are. You have Balsile syndrome. BBOS had almost zero competitors and this sold millions...does that make sense to you. IT has been failing for sometime and they needed to change because the competitors would and did leave that ancient platform behind in the dust. You can argue that all you want....its the case.

    Posted via CB10
    Nevertheless, let's talk UK where BlackBerry has a few good millions of BBOS users, enough of them to pure them at number 3.

    What do you suggest BB should do about them since thy don't want BB10 clearly? I suggest they give them a phone they're used to and like.

    Would you rather they hand them on a plate to other platforms?

    What's your solution? And please don't say BB10 because that clearly ain't happening.


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 07:09 AM
  20. garnok's Avatar
    Again, what other smartphone OS that has just launched has done better when over 90% of the market is the big 2? Which one, let's hear it?

    Posted via CB10
    WP8 ? i dont know...maybe im wrong

    but it is not about how many people buy it at launch, but its about how the sales number grow each quarter... if BBRY and investors satisfied with number you mention BBRY will not lost billion dollars, fired CEO who launch BB10 platform, put the company for sales, losing large marketshare and userbase number, cancel sales of the company because the buyers dont get loan from the bank (rumour)
    JeepBB likes this.
    02-11-14 07:14 AM
  21. MarsupilamiX's Avatar
    First of all, this thread is about user base, NOT marketshare.

    Second of all, if the public rejected BBOS that still is at number 3 in UK based on user base, what do you suppose the public thought of BB10 with only 5 million sales in one year? Does that sound like the public accepted it to you? Let's be realistic here.

    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    And 1% marketshare of BBOS in 2013, means that people accepted it?

    The HP Touchpad was out of stock after they decided to make a fire sale for 99$.
    Does that mean that most tablet buyers accepted it?

    Those fails at a basic level of logic are irritating.

    I completely agree that BBOS is not the future, the problem is that BB10 is a market failure and I don't think that Blackberry had the time or resources to turn that around or even the intent to do so (look at how the Z30 was pushed out in the cold to die). I think that Chen is trying to build a lean enterprise services company as quickly as possible and that the deal with Foxconn is simply a prelude to selling off the hardware side.

    That's why I think an assessment based on BBOS or BB10 is the wrong one, they are both zombie OSes - it's just that one is slowly dying and the other was DOA.
    I do not agree that BB10 itself is DOA.
    The choice of BlackBerry's market positioning with their devices was what made it fail, combined with an incredibly lethargic response to the iPhone.
    BB10 came like.... 6 years to late?
    Then we should pose the question of whom BlackBerry was kidding with the Q5 and its price (same goes for the PlayBook and the Z30 in my opinion) for example?

    Then they had no real marketing push, a bastardised ecosystem relying on an Android app player without native apps, and a 1.0 software version with the Z10, that kind of felt like a beta version.

    These are all immense troubles when it comes down to execution.
    Issues, a once market leading company obviously shouldn't have had.

    I do appreciate your POV, since you openly admit that BBOS can't be a solution.
    I guess that the difference in the way we look at the market, stems from the fact of me not seeing BB10 itself as a bad product.
    What I see is one executional fail after another.

    Posted via CB10
    kbz1960, web99, tinochiko and 1 others like this.
    02-11-14 07:17 AM
  22. kbz1960's Avatar
    What about user base not declining before BB10?

    BlackBerry is Still Number 3! (UK)-asymcoblackberry-1-.png
    MarsupilamiX and tinochiko like this.
    02-11-14 07:18 AM
  23. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    When do you say, ok BB10 failed, we need something else if we want to exist in the future?
    I just don't say BB10 failed. Instead I pretend BBOS exagerated life support lead us into the deep ... and recovery was such a challenge even a perfect OS couldn't do magic in a snap ...
    02-11-14 07:19 AM
  24. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    What about user base not declining before BB10?

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Your graph is clearly wrong, are you saying in 2011 BB only had 20 million users? Check your sources.


    Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums
    02-11-14 07:23 AM
  25. garnok's Avatar
    What about user base not declining before BB10?

    Click image for larger version. 

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    like you see in the graph userbase still not declining because android and apple is still new in the market, after sales growth quarter after quarter android and apple become the hottest mobile platform, attracting new smartphone users and in the endis it is affecting BB number because many people move to android and ios
    02-11-14 07:24 AM
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