1. Bilaal's Avatar
    06-04-13 05:39 PM
  2. thisiscjay's Avatar
    Okay, I know I used the word "lost" but that's just the way I speak (urban slang) Microsoft is more or less losing, as opposed to have already lost the race.

    The link: BlackBerryOS.com - The Latest comScore Results Are In: BlackBerry Holds 3rd Place For U.S. Subscribers
    Although I would love to state this as fact I've heard recently WP 8 is #3 currently
    06-04-13 05:47 PM
  3. AnimalPak200's Avatar
    Eh... the only thing you can reasonably (and rationally) deduce from that data is that Apple and Google are still winning,.. and no one else is even close.
    howarmat and kevinnugent like this.
    06-04-13 05:50 PM
  4. thisiscjay's Avatar
    Okay, I know I used the word "lost" but that's just the way I speak (urban slang) Microsoft is more or less losing, as opposed to have already lost the race.

    The link: BlackBerryOS.com - The Latest comScore Results Are In: BlackBerry Holds 3rd Place For U.S. Subscribers
    Here is the article I was referring to sadly...

    http://www.neowin.net/news/windows-phone-now-the-third-place-smartphone-ecosystem-as-blackberry-sinks-further
    2slick141 likes this.
    06-04-13 05:51 PM
  5. richardat's Avatar
    Okay, I know I used the word "lost" but that's just the way I speak (urban slang) Microsoft is more or less losing, as opposed to have already lost the race.

    The link: BlackBerryOS.com - The Latest comScore Results Are In: BlackBerry Holds 3rd Place For U.S. Subscribers
    Completely incorrect. This actually shows MS clearly "winning" - to use your urban slang?

    More specifically, MS has been quite constant during the previous months (after fall losses), whereas BB has been eroding a great deal. Perhaps one could characterize it as MS losing less! LOL
    Etios, Admorris, m1a1mg and 2 others like this.
    06-04-13 05:55 PM
  6. richardat's Avatar
    Your article refers to global marketshare - a completely different metric. The comscore statistics are for current users. Both reports however indicate Windows doing better than BB.
    06-04-13 06:00 PM
  7. Bilaal's Avatar
    Completely incorrect. This actually shows MS clearly "winning" - to use your urban slang?

    More specifically, MS has been quite constant during the previous months (after fall losses), whereas BB has been eroding a great deal. Perhaps one could characterize it as MS losing less! LOL
    What? BBRY is 3rd place according to that. Why must you feel the need to exercise your point when all I've done is post a link. It seems like you're **** hurt over the use of my slang or the fact that BBRY might just be in 3rd place. Quite frankly, I hope you don't lose much sleep over the use of slang I used.
    06-04-13 06:00 PM
  8. nabil114's Avatar
    They have some time.
    06-04-13 06:03 PM
  9. grover5's Avatar
    Completely incorrect. This actually shows MS clearly "winning" - to use your urban slang?

    More specifically, MS has been quite constant during the previous months (after fall losses), whereas BB has been eroding a great deal. Perhaps one could characterize it as MS losing less! LOL
    No it doesn't. You're incorrect. But the data that matters will be the market share over the next year not for the month of April.
    06-04-13 06:09 PM
  10. FSeverino's Avatar
    Although BB is in 3rd in those images they dropped by 0.8 and WP only dropped 0.1

    We have to wait until after both the Z10 and Q10 have been out for a bit to judge the 'stable' markets. This quarter for BB is June 28, next quarter will have the Q10 out for a majority and the Z10 in mid stride... that will be more of a story teller than a quarter with no Q10 and Z10 in infancy.
    howarmat, mikeo007 and richardat like this.
    06-04-13 06:11 PM
  11. aniym's Avatar
    Microsoft's Windows Phone strategy is a mess, so I'm not surprised they're losing badly in the US....Nokia only shipped 400K WP8 devices in the last quarter, down from the measly 600K devices the quarter before. Nokia is aggressively targeting the emerging markets with $150 WP8 handsets like the 520 but it's anyone's guess as to how sales have been going.

    That said, all of this is largely pointless when we're talking about 5% marketshare vs. 3% marketshare. It would be like Zune MP3 fans saying on a forum "look, we're #3, we're beating Cowon iAudio" when the iPod and Sandisk Sansa are miles ahead at #1 and #2.
    06-04-13 06:26 PM
  12. richardat's Avatar
    What? BBRY is 3rd place according to that. Why must you feel the need to exercise your point when all I've done is post a link. It seems like you're **** hurt over the use of my slang or the fact that BBRY might just be in 3rd place. Quite frankly, I hope you don't lose much sleep over the use of slang I used.
    I realize you are having a great difficulty in comprehending the study and what I'm saying. I can only assure you that I am not "hurt' over your slang. In fact, I don't even consider the phrases "lost", "losing", "winning" etc. to be slang. They are reasonably appropriate in this context, if somewhat....puerile.

    I am not sure why you think BB might be in 3rd place, if it is because of the study another poster mentioned, I already explained why his study was different (see post #6). As I pointed out there, both reports are very negative for BB.

    I do not know how to make this any simpler for you. The situation is somewhat (though I am going to ignore growth of the marketplace for the sake of simplicity) analogous to a hare who starts the race years before the tortoise. Leaping out to an incredible lead, the hare is the clear leader. Suddenly the hare realizes he's being overtaken by a gazelle and a cheetah. They rocket to an insurmountable lead. Oh well says the hare, I'm still miles and miles in front of that tortoise, I'll be #3. Then the hare's speed slows to nearly a crawl, and continues to slow. The turtle makes incremental increases in speed. The hare becomes so confused, he often goes in the wrong direction, with the net result being that he moves AWAY from the finish line. In fact, he loses so much ground that suddenly the turtle is in sight - amazing given the previous lead the hare enjoyed. In addition, the hares slows so much, that suddenly, it becomes apparent that he is now moving more slowly than the tortoise. At this point Bilaal screams "look, the Hare is now in 3rd place! The hare is winning!"; Bilaal is then confused as to why everyone else looks less joyous, and accuses them of exercising their point (I actually don't know what that one means :-) Again, according to these numbers, BB is rapidly losing installed base percentage, while WP is clinging to their percentage, this dovetails with reports of WP marketshare now exceeding BB's. This is not good. Perhaps BB10 sales can change this.
    06-04-13 06:27 PM
  13. richardat's Avatar
    No it doesn't. You're incorrect. But the data that matters will be the market share over the next year not for the month of April.
    UGH.....that data is not for the month of April, and yes, it clearly is favorable for MS. It shows BB losing heavy ground in subscribers. I am quite correct. I cannot make it any simpler for anybody.
    06-04-13 06:29 PM
  14. richardat's Avatar
    Although BB is in 3rd in those images they dropped by 0.8 and WP only dropped 0.1

    We have to wait until after both the Z10 and Q10 have been out for a bit to judge the 'stable' markets. This quarter for BB is June 28, next quarter will have the Q10 out for a majority and the Z10 in mid stride... that will be more of a story teller than a quarter with no Q10 and Z10 in infancy.
    Yes. Before I was hopeful for strong gains...in fact, I imagined large (ie. iphone/android scale numbers - no not beating them, but up there as a clear 3rd and markedly different from those below) surges with BB10, I actually feared the initial surges may be illusory or misleading....but now it appears nothing like that will happen. I would be happy now, if BB10 numbers can simply provide mild gains against WPhone - and I think they will - depending on how all the overseas markets come in.
    06-04-13 06:34 PM
  15. mikepraba's Avatar
    Let me make you understand buddy. Z10 just got into us that time. the statistics were mainly with Blackberry 0S7. Microsoft is done with their cell business with the failure of Nokia. But Blackberry is here to stay. Now Q10 is launching tomorrow (pre-order) the numbers will be different this quarter in us. The OS 7 phones will be gone in us and New BB10 to rull soon.
    theRock1975 and sugbo like this.
    06-04-13 06:36 PM
  16. sinsin07's Avatar
    Okay, I know I used the word "lost" but that's just the way I speak (urban slang) Microsoft is more or less losing, as opposed to have already lost the race.

    The link: BlackBerryOS.com - The Latest comScore Results Are In: BlackBerry Holds 3rd Place For U.S. Subscribers
    Nobody remembers "third".
    06-04-13 06:38 PM
  17. richardat's Avatar
    Microsoft's Windows Phone strategy is a mess, so I'm not surprised they're losing badly in the US....Nokia only shipped 400K WP8 devices in the last quarter, down from the measly 600K devices the quarter before. Nokia is aggressively targeting the emerging markets with $150 WP8 handsets like the 520 but it's anyone's guess as to how sales have been going.

    That said, all of this is largely pointless when we're talking about 5% marketshare vs. 3% marketshare. It would be like Zune MP3 fans saying on a forum "look, we're #3, we're beating Cowon iAudio" when the iPod and Sandisk Sansa are miles ahead at #1 and #2.
    I agree Aniym, the WP strategy has been poor here - and this hardly surprises me when it's MS involved ;-) Having said that, I don't think BB's strategy has been any better...in fact, it may be worse in that they've squandered a number of opportunities they've had with launch momentum/enthusiasm.

    In any case though, this (the 5% and 3%) isn't marketshare. It's installed base. Which of course, should - and always has - gone to BB over winphone. Alarmingly, in these statistics, they aren't far apart even on that measure now - so that's troubling.
    eldricho likes this.
    06-04-13 06:43 PM
  18. grover5's Avatar
    UGH.....that data is not for the month of April, and yes, it clearly is favorable for MS. It shows BB losing heavy ground in subscribers. I am quite correct. I cannot make it any simpler for anybody.
    You need to make it simpler for yourself first. The data shows a significant drop in decline once a new phone was released. The first new top of the line phone in almost two years. Meanwhile Microsoft was unable to carve out a significant increase and advantage during a period where they only had to beat OS 7. None of it matters as much as what the next year brings though.
    matthewriedle and sf49ers like this.
    06-04-13 06:44 PM
  19. Rickster1's Avatar
    Well one projection has growth in smartphones at 30 odd percent over the next year. There is plenty of sales available for a "third" player. Margins are what is important. Samsung has less than 20% margin versus Apple at around 36% and BB at around 38%. You don't have to be the biggest, profitability is very important.BB has done very well financially through this dark period of sales and revenue loss.
    matthewriedle and theRock1975 like this.
    06-04-13 06:47 PM
  20. tmb2013's Avatar
    No it doesn't. You're incorrect. But the data that matters will be the market share over the next year not for the month of April.
    Market share really is not a useful measure as it is measured so inconsistently. Too many of the measures of "market share " are based on unit shipments, rather than unit sales.

    I am far more interested, as an investor, in sell through numbers. Shipments that are sitting in a warehouse are costing money, not making it.

    Sell through is the only thing that possibly will generate profit and at the end of the day, I don't care who has the highest "market share", I care about who has the highest profit.
    m1a1mg likes this.
    06-04-13 06:52 PM
  21. richardat's Avatar
    You need to make it simpler for yourself first. The data shows a significant drop in decline once a new phone was released. The first new top of the line phone in almost two years. Meanwhile Microsoft was unable to carve out a significant increase and advantage during a period where they only had to beat OS 7. None of it matters as much as what the next year brings though.
    OK, good, I take it you understand that these aren't marketshare numbers - as you aren't making assertions to that end anymore. Yes, BB's drop - though very large, was not as large as it's previous drop, while MS held even - you may call that winning if you like - that is your judgment.

    However, you err again when you state the "data shows a significant drop in decline once a new phone was released". I do not believe the data is sensitive enough, nor in the proper temporal frame to state that with any validity.
    06-04-13 06:52 PM
  22. tmb2013's Avatar
    Well one projection has growth in smartphones at 30 odd percent over the next year. There is plenty of sales available for a "third" player. Margins are what is important. Samsung has less than 20% margin versus Apple at around 36% and BB at around 38%. You don't have to be the biggest, profitability is very important.BB has done very well financially through this dark period of sales and revenue loss.
    Apple is still showing about 39% blended margins. The numbers on their last q'ly report were artificially skewed by their electing to take a larger than normal warranty reserve on past unit sales to reflect the deal they made in China where the government demanded warranty protection as a "consumer electronic" device.

    It was a conservative accounting move, that of course was not reported. You had to dig into the SEC filings to find it. I'm a bean counter so that's the sort of thing I do ... For fun.

    I think it is unlikely that those 20% margins for Samsung will hold up though. Samsung are playing the "units shipped" game (as are BB) and I can't actually figure out if they are reporting reserves on units shipped but not sold yet. My best guess is they aren't. This means they will have to take a large write down at some point. I am guessing the margins may actually be about half of what they are reporting.

    I hope BB are not doing this as well, but the next Q'ly filings will tell a lot when we get a chance to actually see the financials, and the notes.
    Last edited by tmb2013; 06-04-13 at 07:22 PM.
    ccbs likes this.
    06-04-13 06:56 PM
  23. Bilaal's Avatar
    I realize you are having a great difficulty in comprehending the study and what I'm saying. I can only assure you that I am not "hurt' over your slang. In fact, I don't even consider the phrases "lost", "losing", "winning" etc. to be slang. They are reasonably appropriate in this context, if somewhat....puerile.

    I am not sure why you think BB might be in 3rd place, if it is because of the study another poster mentioned, I already explained why his study was different (see post #6). As I pointed out there, both reports are very negative for BB.

    I do not know how to make this any simpler for you. The situation is somewhat (though I am going to ignore growth of the marketplace for the sake of simplicity) analogous to a hare who starts the race years before the tortoise. Leaping out to an incredible lead, the hare is the clear leader. Suddenly the hare realizes he's being overtaken by a gazelle and a cheetah. They rocket to an insurmountable lead. Oh well says the hare, I'm still miles and miles in front of that tortoise, I'll be #3. Then the hare's speed slows to nearly a crawl, and continues to slow. The turtle makes incremental increases in speed. The hare becomes so confused, he often goes in the wrong direction, with the net result being that he moves AWAY from the finish line. In fact, he loses so much ground that suddenly the turtle is in sight - amazing given the previous lead the hare enjoyed. In addition, the hares slows so much, that suddenly, it becomes apparent that he is now moving more slowly than the tortoise. At this point Bilaal screams "look, the Hare is now in 3rd place! The hare is winning!"; Bilaal is then confused as to why everyone else looks less joyous, and accuses them of exercising their point (I actually don't know what that one means :-) Again, according to these numbers, BB is rapidly losing installed base percentage, while WP is clinging to their percentage, this dovetails with reports of WP marketshare now exceeding BB's. This is not good. Perhaps BB10 sales can change this.
    This. Your post, my choice of wording and frustration has me to be acknowledge that I spend way too much time on CB than needed and I was out of line. I apologize.
    kevinnugent and richardat like this.
    06-04-13 06:56 PM
  24. Zarpan's Avatar
    Posted this in another thread, but figure that it is relevant here.

    BlackBerry has been trending downwards at around 0.5+% per month for a while.

    July - 9.5%
    September - 8.4%
    December - 6.4%
    January - 5.9%
    February - 5.4%

    If that trend continued, then you'd expect BlackBerry to be at around 4.4% for April. Instead, BlackBerry was at 5.1%, which is about 0.7% (or 1 million users) higher than the trendline.

    Since the data is a three month average the April Comscore numbers include February, when the BlackBerry base was likely declining heavily still.

    Hence you could have a situation where the actual monthly numbers were:

    October - 6.9%
    November - 6.4%
    December - 5.9%
    January - 5.4%
    February - 4.9%
    March - 5.2%
    April - 5.3%

    Such a scenario would match the three month averages that Comscore provides. Theoretically BlackBerry could have increased its installed base by 800,000 between February and April. In that case, BlackBerry would have increased installed base by much more than Windows Phone, as well as having to replace higher monthly churn due to the larger installed base.

    What you are seeing in the three month averages is likely a tale of two halves. In the first half, BlackBerry continues losing installed base at a heavy rate. In the second half, BlackBerry increases their installed base to a higher level than the start of the quarter (in total numbers, although not percent since the market is growing too).
    06-04-13 06:57 PM
  25. richardat's Avatar
    Posted this in another thread, but figure that it is relevant here.

    BlackBerry has been trending downwards at around 0.5+% per month for a while.

    July - 9.5%
    September - 8.4%
    December - 6.4%
    January - 5.9%
    February - 5.4%

    If that trend continued, then you'd expect BlackBerry to be at around 4.4% for April. Instead, BlackBerry was at 5.1%, which is about 0.7% (or 1 million users) higher than the trendline.

    Since the data is a three month average the April Comscore numbers include February, when the BlackBerry base was likely declining heavily still.

    Hence you could have a situation where the actual monthly numbers were:

    October - 6.9%
    November - 6.4%
    December - 5.9%
    January - 5.4%
    February - 4.9%
    March - 5.2%
    April - 5.3%

    Such a scenario would match the three month averages that Comscore provides. Theoretically BlackBerry could have increased its installed base by 800,000 between February and April. In that case, BlackBerry would have increased installed base by much more than Windows Phone, as well as having to replace higher monthly churn due to the larger installed base.

    What you are seeing in the three month averages is likely a tale of two halves. In the first half, BlackBerry continues losing installed base at a heavy rate. In the second half, BlackBerry increases their installed base to a higher level than the start of the quarter (in total numbers, although not percent since the market is growing too).
    I suspect that as well, but it's an unsubstantiated created narrative at this point. Hopefully the next figures will give us suggest this correct!
    06-04-13 07:20 PM
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