[RubberChicken76]

Questions about the validity of Strategy Analytics’ claims have been raised, especially due to the lack of concrete numbers for the entire fourth quarter

That's my gripe with it. He won't even answer questions unless you buy his study. He says,

"Microsoft Windows Phone overtook BlackBerry OS to become the third largest smartphone platform in the influential United States market during Q4 2012. It was the first time Microsoft has surpassed Blackberry since 2006. Meanwhile, Android lost share in annual terms for the first time ever. Are we now at “peak Android”? Which hardware vendors dominate the Microsoft and Android smartphone ecosystems today?"

My gut tells me that he's measuring fourth quarter sales but pitching it as active users.

[RubberChicken76]

I have no idea of the active # of Windows Phone users, so I took a quick educated guess taking a couple of data sources. It's a total SWAG but I'm guessing around 18 million, give or take two or three million. I took the number of Lumia's sold in the previous 12 months, then applied the % breakdown of the market that AdDuplex put forward.

Vendor Units Sold Markshare
Nokia: 14,300,000 (78.00%)
HTC: 2,566,667 (14.00%)
Samsung:1,100,000 (6.00%)
Other: 366,667 (2.00%)
Total: 18,333,333 (100.00%)

The rise in marketshare is a leading indicator that Blackberry can't ignore, especially if more Windows Phones were sold in the last quarter than BlackBerrys. On the other hand, it will take a lot to convince me that the overall market size of Windows Phones is bigger than BlackBerrys right now.

[richardat]

I have no idea of the active # of Windows Phone users, so I took a quick educated guess taking a couple of data sources. It's a total SWAG but I'm guessing around 18 million, give or take two or three million. I took the number of Lumia's sold in the previous 12 months, then applied the % breakdown of the market that AdDuplex put forward.

Vendor Units Sold Markshare
Nokia: 14,300,000 (78.00%)
HTC: 2,566,667 (14.00%)
Samsung:1,100,000 (6.00%)
Other: 366,667 (2.00%)
Total: 18,333,333 (100.00%)

The rise in marketshare is a leading indicator that Blackberry can't ignore, especially if more Windows Phones were sold in the last quarter than BlackBerrys. On the other hand, it will take a lot to convince me that the overall market size of Windows Phones is bigger than BlackBerrys right now.

Without even looking at metrics I don't think there is any way that the active base approaches BB's. The surge is something to be concerned about, if only because it could (if it continued) mean developers shifiting resources toward winphone. Overall though, I'm not even concerned about the battle for #3. They both need to become a "strong" #3, with a marketshare much closer to Apple's....if both stayed low, then it doesn't really matter 3....4...

[RubberChicken76]

Overall though, I'm not even concerned about the battle for #3. They both need to become a "strong" #3, with a marketshare much closer to Apple's....if both stayed low, then it doesn't really matter 3....4...

Maybe. The market is pretty large but a lot of the media and developers seem obsessed with % of marketshare vs. # of users. I think iPhone users are going to be much more difficult to convince to switch than Android users. I have a theory that a lot of "Android users" don't really know or care that they have an "Android", nor are they commited to "Android". They bought an HTC, a Samsung, an LG ... not an "Android".