[AhmadCentral]

My hazy recollection of the WP7 to WP8 transition is that MS were ruthless about it. They stated that WP7 was a dead end, and that devices wouldn't be upgradable to WP8. Essentially they abandoned WP7 and its users. A bold and risky strategy that might not have paid off.

An equivalent BB strategy of letting BBOS whither would likely have been suicide considering that BBOS was (still is?) paying the bills.

Well BB7 devices aren't upgradable to BB10 either.

But I see the point you're getting at as there is a charge for services on OS7 where as no separate charge for services on OS10.

But 2 years down the line and I would have expected BBOS10 to be by far the majority of new smartphones being sold in. But the actual number is under 70% which isn't even 3/4. It really shows to me at least that a number of carriers/consumers aren't embracing the new higher value BlackBerry devices and there is still demand for older BlackBerry OS7 devices.

It's kinda the same way iPhone 4 s is still selling even though there is the 7 n 6+ and soon another one ( or two)

Well actually the 4 and 4S have been discontinued and Apple are only shipping 5 series and 6 series smartphones now.

My point is more that BlackBerry OS7 devices are still counting for a number of new devices being sold in when you'd really think it'd be all, or nearly all BlackBerry OS10 devices.

[Soulstream]

My hazy recollection of the WP7 to WP8 transition is that MS were ruthless about it. They stated that WP7 was a dead end, and that devices wouldn't be upgradable to WP8. Essentially they abandoned WP7 and its users. A bold and risky strategy that might not have paid off.

An equivalent BB strategy of letting BBOS whither would likely have been suicide considering that BBOS was (still is?) paying the bills.

I think Microsoft had a better vision of the future. What they wanted to do with Windows phone was probably impossible with the old kernel and base OS in WP7. I also think that even if by some miracle they managed to bring in some way or form WP8 to WP7 devices they current situation would not have been much better.

It should be noted that Microsoft had and has a very big advantage that BB didn't and only now is staring to work for it: additional sources of income. It provided them with a safety net and allowed them to kill WP7 without digging their own grave for doing so (a thing BB couldn't do with BBOS7)

[Kimberella]

Wasn't there just an article about how BlackBerry only sold 8,000 devices?

Posted via BlackBerry Classic

Yes, it was a number to from a Morgan Stanley report that many people have taken out of context.

Posted via CB10

[Kimberella]

A good question. Given the number of angry posts I've seen hereabouts over the absence of a suitable BB10 upgrade device for Z10/30 owners, I wonder how many are angry enough to vote with their feet.

Chen has published a roadmap (of sorts) at MWC... No high-end touch on it. He's also quoted as saying that 2015 will only have PKB phones in it.

How many of those 1st gen people will wait until next year, at the earliest, in the hope that a Z50 will come? Not many I reckon. Even the uber-fans must surely be wavering?

Speaking as a first gen-er, I'm willing to shift over to a PKB with the right specs. I'm hesitant to leave my carrier to do it however because I have an awesome data plan.
If there is no hope of that device coming to my carrier (a statement Verizon refuses to make right now), I will leave before waiting indefinitely for a Z50.

Posted via CB10

[david7saad]

Blackberry may no longer want to sell cheap smartphones. I remember when John Chen came to Jakarta Indonesia last year and said that BlackBerry z3 is the cheapest bb10 device and they won't release BB10 device under z3 price... Blackberry just play mid-end and high-end smartphones now, unlike xiaomi, huawei, zte, etc.

[ljfong]

A good question. Given the number of angry posts I've seen hereabouts over the absence of a suitable BB10 upgrade device for Z10/30 owners, I wonder how many are angry enough to vote with their feet.

Chen has published a roadmap (of sorts) at MWC... No high-end touch on it. He's also quoted as saying that 2015 will only have PKB phones in it.

How many of those 1st gen people will wait until next year, at the earliest, in the hope that a Z50 will come? Not many I reckon. Even the uber-fans must surely be wavering?

I know at least one who voted with his feet, made a post about it and got ridiculed to no end here. I did the same but for different reason and never bothered to make any post about it, which I would like to believe is what the majority who left did.

Posted via CB10

[extisis]

The worst part is, the bb10 phones are declining, they need to increase to generate more buzz

Posted via CB10

it's only been 4 years

[MarsupilamiX]

I find it shocking how BB10 shipments have declined. Not exactly growing that audience.

There was one member in the blog post yesterday who swore they were increasing, which I found puzzling. Thanks again for the numbers.

Product portfolio, ecosystem and competition.
What's BB10's USP apart from the HUB and enterprise security?
That I can use half of the Android apps out there, instead of all?
That I can write on a physical keyboard, even though 99.9% of the market reject the form factor?
No devices the mass market actually wants, were produced since the Z10. And even that's debatable.

I really don't know how the numbers could have gotten better, with that incredible abysmal product portfolio and BlackBerry's stubbornness to ignore obvious trends (720p on the Z30, dual core, and THAT ecosystem. Only 5 inch phone of its time with that display and those bad specs, for 600$. Basically making it the worst phone in the flagship tier. Maybe Steve Jobs could have sold it, but I have no idea how to pitch that phone for the release price)

[MarsupilamiX]

An important question for FY2016 will be whether first gen BB10 customers will stay loyal and replace their devices after 2 years of usage with newer BB10 devices or leave the sinking ship instead.

They are soooooo gone.
Nothing for Z owners to upgrade to, and those were the bulk of sold BB10 phones in the last few years (also a reason for the bad ASP).

I know that I won't buy another BlackBerry if the slider doesn't have good specs.
And if there's no high-end touch phone this year (the slider is ok as well), I'll be gone.

I have read so many posts from furious Z10/30 owners, who want an upgrade path.
Well, BlackBerry gives them the Leap. A phone even worse than the Z30

Because Enterprise users need Apps too the only future that I see for the handset division is for BlackBerry to make Android phones with a BlackBerry Enterprise Apps and Hub.

Posted via CB10

Yep. I need my productivity and enterprise apps, just like a regular consumer needs his consumer apps.

BB10 for the ultra regulated industries, without the runtime should stay in the portfolio though.

My hazy recollection of the WP7 to WP8 transition is that MS were ruthless about it. They stated that WP7 was a dead end, and that devices wouldn't be upgradable to WP8. Essentially they abandoned WP7 and its users. A bold and risky strategy that might not have paid off.

An equivalent BB strategy of letting BBOS whither would likely have been suicide considering that BBOS was (still is?) paying the bills.

The problem is that, what BlackBerry has done with the rerererelease of BBOS devices, was basically suicide on rates.
What I want to say is that, ceteris paribus, BlackBerry EOL' d BBOS in 2013, the outcome would have been the same:
The smartphone division will very very very probably die.

The only question is, if BBOS would have been needed for the software transition, or if the transition if tackled sooner, would have worked out even though BBOS would have been killed in early 2013.
I really do not know the answer.

To be honest, BBOS should have been killed somewhere in 2008, with a launch of BB10 in the same year. But that's the story of an alternative universe.

Speaking as a first gen-er, I'm willing to shift over to a PKB with the right specs. I'm hesitant to leave my carrier to do it however because I have an awesome data plan.
If there is no hope of that device coming to my carrier (a statement Verizon refuses to make right now), I will leave before waiting indefinitely for a Z50.

Posted via CB10

Well, I am completely unwilling to go full PKB.
A slider is something else. I love that design, as it offers the best of both worlds.

The slider has exactly 0 mass appeal though, and a touch purist will never consider such a form-factor.

Blackberry may no longer want to sell cheap smartphones. I remember when John Chen came to Jakarta Indonesia last year and said that BlackBerry z3 is the cheapest bb10 device and they won't release BB10 device under z3 price... Blackberry just play mid-end and high-end smartphones now, unlike xiaomi, huawei, zte, etc.

The problem is, that every Android phone with better specs than BlackBerry's Z3/Leap, costs half as much. Same applies to WP.

If Chen doesn't want cheap phones, he needs good specs. If he doesn't want good specs, he needs cheap phones.
It's either or, not both.
And Chen currently tries to sell some pretty bad specs for 450$ ( Classic) and 300$ (Leap).

[dolco]

And who validated it? BlackBerry? AT&T? Verizon?

And who denied it? BlackBerry? AT&T? Verizon?
...
If you like this kind of discussion...

[dolco]

Are you saying I forgot to mention this?

Because the 8,000 number doesn't matter at all when we have actual sell in and sell through numbers from BlackBerry's audited financials.

NO. I am not saying that.

[Lobwedgephil]

Well BB7 devices aren't upgradable to BB10 either.

But I see the point you're getting at as there is a charge for services on OS7 where as no separate charge for services on OS10.

But 2 years down the line and I would have expected BBOS10 to be by far the majority of new smartphones being sold in. But the actual number is under 70% which isn't even 3/4. It really shows to me at least that a number of carriers/consumers aren't embracing the new higher value BlackBerry devices and there is still demand for older BlackBerry OS7 devices.



Well actually the 4 and 4S have been discontinued and Apple are only shipping 5 series and 6 series smartphones now.

My point is more that BlackBerry OS7 devices are still counting for a number of new devices being sold in when you'd really think it'd be all, or nearly all BlackBerry OS10 devices.

The only demand for OS7 is corporations replacing broken OS7 devices.

[MarsupilamiX]

The only demand for OS7 is corporations replacing broken OS7 devices.

And emerging markets where BIS actually still has a use.

At least that's how I would describe it.
It's also fascinating that BlackBerry sells so few legacy phones every quarter, but that the number of BBOS users still is "that high".
Those must be people who wait for their phones to become bricks, before they upgrade.

[JeepBB]

I know at least one who voted with his feet, made a post about it and got ridiculed to no end here. I did the same but for different reason and never bothered to make any post about it, which I would like to believe is what the majority who left did.

Posted via CB10

Yes, I agree that the majority of people who determine that BB isn't going to release a phone they want, in a timescale for which they're willing to wait... will simply shrug disappointedly, and silently leave BB10 for another platform.

Few will willingly face the wrath of the uber-fans by posting here.

It's clearly happening. I've seen several phone-added "posted using iPhone" tag lines at the bottom of posts from posters I would have expected to be BB 'till parted by death.

There are more upgrade paths available for BBOS to BB10 than from one elderly BB10 device to a more modern BB10 device.

That relative ease of BBOS migration would strike me as ironic ... If I didn't believe it to be an entirely intentional part of Chen's strategy.

[JeepBB]

And emerging markets where BIS actually still has a use.

At least that's how I would describe it.
It's also fascinating that BlackBerry sells so few legacy phones every quarter, but that the number of BBOS users still is "that high".
Those must be people who wait for their phones to become bricks, before they upgrade.

Yes, astonishing isn't it. That BBOS *still* accounts for something like 3/4 of the BB user base.

I suspect Chen's strategy is to continue to wave the Classic enticingly, while producing no more BBOS devices. He knows that the majority of those PKB diehards will eventually *have* to come over to BB10 because no other vendor offers a phone that is even *close* to meeting their needs.

As to the slider, let's have a little sportsman's bet, just for the kudos of being proved right.

I predict that the slider (if released at all this year) will not be a flagship, nor have stellar specs. It'll be designed with "good enough" Leap'ish specs that are targeted to meet the price/performance criteria of the IT Dept buyers at which it will be aimed.

See you in December 2015?

[belfastdispatcher]

And emerging markets where BIS actually still has a use.

At least that's how I would describe it.
It's also fascinating that BlackBerry sells so few legacy phones every quarter, but that the number of BBOS users still is "that high".
Those must be people who wait for their phones to become bricks, before they upgrade.

One word, EBay. Remember the Kardashian that keeps buying 9900's?

[diehardbbuser]

One word, EBay. Remember the Kardashian that keeps buying 9900's?

We just picked up a cheap 9700 waiting for a white classic and let me tell ya, kijiji and ebay aren't really great either as the phones are all at their end of life... Weak batteries physical damage etc. at most prob 12 months of moderate use... Plus without bb traffic and bank app support... Really a challenge to stay with the old devices no matter how far better ie efficient email and msging was... My gf is happy with her 9700 vs learning my bb10 as she hates it but accepts she needs to sooner then later.

[belfastdispatcher]

We just picked up a cheap 9700 waiting for a white classic and let me tell ya, kijiji and ebay aren't really great either as the phones are all at their end of life... Weak batteries physical damage etc. at most prob 12 months of moderate use... Plus without bb traffic and bank app support... Really a challenge to stay with the old devices no matter how far better ie efficient email and msging was... My gf is happy with her 9700 vs learning my bb10 as she hates it but accepts she needs to sooner then later.

Well the 9700 is very very old, two generations of BBOS devices came after it, you'd have better luck with BB7 devices, my wife has a 9790.

[white shirt only]

If BlackBerry can sell 2 million BB10, high end, smartphones quarterly with high ASP to unconventional customers (you know the speech: governments, executives, people who values security and privacy), building a dedicated customer relationship, they will be fine.

The market will sature and many companies with no competitive advantages will be cut. Sony Mobile isn't profitable with 40 million sales. Already happening.

Blackberry 's competitive advantage is a mix of security (end to end control with servers and OS) and design. Blackberry's design costs more and takes longer to market (PKB for different regions) than dull full touch screen.

There is no money to be made in the low end. Unless you can command huge volumes, which isn't sustainable.

Posted via CB10

[birdman_38]

There is no money to be made in the low end. Unless you can command huge volumes, which isn't sustainable.

There was no money to be made in the high production volumes of the Z10 either.

One of BlackBerry's missteps of the BB10 launch was not having an extreme low end offering to help BlackBerry 10 penetrate the market. They thought the Q5 was the answer. At $400 outright, it wasn't even close.

[MarsupilamiX]

There was no money to be made in the high production volumes of the Z10 either.

One of BlackBerry's missteps of the BB10 launch was not having an extreme low end offering to help BlackBerry 10 penetrate the market. They thought the Q5 was the answer. At $400 outright, it wasn't even close.

The Q5, together with the Classic, are the most overpriced BlackBerry devices in quite some time.

[belfastdispatcher]

Hardware was never the problem, the BB10 OS was, it removed all USPs from the old OS and it added none for potential customers from other platforms.

BB10 is a platform with no target customers.

[MarsupilamiX]

Hardware was never the problem, the BB10 OS was, it removed all USPs from the old OS and it added none for potential customers from other platforms.

BB10 is a platform with no target customers.

You're never getting tired

[lnichols]

Hardware was never the problem, the BB10 OS was, it removed all USPs from the old OS and it added none for potential customers from other platforms.

BB10 is a platform with no target customers.

It was. Selling middling hardware at a premium price with no ecosystem to support it is a recipe for failure. They needed to build up a base instead of assuming that the existing BBOS base, which had migrated to being mostly low end customers, in low end markets, on low end data plans would buy overpriced, low and middle end hardware. They also released the OS in a beta state which caused many people's first taste of BB10 to be a bitter one.

Business and Government are now starting to migrate to BB10, they are slow and the for sale sign delayed the transition. Many are also testing things like Citrix Work (which is garbage) and other containerized solutions which work very poorly. Low end customers in low end markets can get better pricing and better devices via Android now, and a lot of apps and services with it too. Also the wireless networks worldwide are expanding capacity and providing more data for less every day, making BIS less and less relevant.

Posted via CB10

[Irish Blues]

There was and number is still valid. That number (8000) is/was sales of Passport and Classic in AT&T and Verizon.

Yeah, it was valid. For perhaps a handful of days, with limited inventory and even more limited salesperson awareness. It's like taking what a basketball team does in the first 30 seconds of a game and extrapolating what it's going to do for the rest of the conference schedule.