[Prem WatsApp]

Cue the PlayBook reminiscence posts below .... \/


:-D

�   Forget the name, ... Priv it on! :-)   �

[grahamf]

Doesn't that argument ignore the longer term benefit of retaining a customer? Someone who feels unfairly treated (rightly or wrongly) is extremely unlikely to buy anything else from that company so in this case BlackBerry could be losing out on future purchases from existing BB10 customers.

Posted via CB10

Including all of the existing "android" customers that have an old BB10 device in a drawer or loaned to a kid and may be considering a new device soon anyways.

[JeepBB]

Doesn't that argument ignore the longer term benefit of retaining a customer? Someone who feels unfairly treated (rightly or wrongly) is extremely unlikely to buy anything else from that company so in this case BlackBerry could be losing out on future purchases from existing BB10 customers.

Posted via CB10

No. It doesn't ignore the benefit of company loyalty, it simply factors that into an overall cost/benefit analysis.

It would cost BB millions of dollars, ignoring for the moment who would do the development as BB has fired most of the engineers, to bring Android to all of the past BB10 phones.

It would have to be done for *all* BB10 phones, or are there grades of BB10 handset loyalty that deserve Android more?

There are something like 10 million BB10 handsets out there. Most of the 30M BB users are still on BBOS, and this expensive gesture from BB wouldn't benefit them at all.

As said, BB only wins if you buy a new BB phone (now or in the future).

How many of the owners of those 10M BB10 handsets, that have now been updated at considerable BB cost, and now given a new lease of life to delay any possible replacement, are imminently going to buy *any* new phone?

And, when the time comes to replace this expensively upgraded phone, what proportion of the 10M will buy a BB Android phone? It won't even be close to all of them, I'm sure of that.

I'd bring into that cost/benefit analysis the fact that BB is possibly/probably exiting hardware anyway... So, there wouldn't be a BB phone for these expensively upgraded loyalists to buy anyway.

So, yes retaining loyal customers is a benefit, but doesn't outweigh the costs.

There is no business case.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Asvertus]

BBDroid???
No way!!!
That's not an update, it's an down grade for my Z30.

I use OS 10 as long as possible.


Posted via my Z30 (10.3.2.2639)

[JeepBB]

BBDroid???
No way!!!
That's not an update, it's an down grade for my Z30.

I use OS 10 as long as possible.


Posted via my Z30 (10.3.2.2639)

... And, to add to my earlier post, many of the BB10 loyalists wouldn't want the Android update anyway. So there is no possible "win" for BB because they won't buy a Priv, or any future BB Android phone.

Did I mention that there's no business case...?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[elhot69]

If you think that BB10 is the best why you want Android in your phone?

BlackBerry need to sell more devices, not to allow Android in old ones.

Posted via CB10

[ubizmo]

As I said earlier, and in other threads, this is mostly wishful thinking on my part. But in terms of the Passport only, we know the development has been done already, though probably not finished. We've seen Android on a Passport.

So, the question is, if Android were made available to existing Passports, what effect might that have on future BlackBerry sales?

1. It would inhibit them, because Passport owners would have less reason to buy the Priv.

2. It would stimulate them, because Passport owners would (a) enjoy the experience and be interested in either the Priv or the next BlackBerry Android device, if there is one; or (b) Passport owners would promote BlackBerry Android by showing others their BlackBerry phone running full Android.

Maybe the most important words in what I just wrote are "If there is one." If there's going to be a post-Priv BlackBerry they have to squeeze out every last possible Priv sale.

Which, sadly, kills option 2.

But I can still wishfully think.


Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk

[khampasong]

I was just thinking about thevpassport too. I am thinking that the passport was/is the most successful bb10 device, otherwise they wouldn't have done the SE. They may be postponing the launch of the Android passport to put all their currently meager resources in the Priv. If ever the Priv is successful, that would attest the viability of an Android passport. Maybe they do not want to cannibalize the sales of the Priv at the beginning too for sales and media attention purpose. From a strategic point of view that makes sense to me.

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

I was just thinking about thevpassport too. I am thinking that the passport was/is the most successful bb10 device, otherwise they wouldn't have done the SE.

I suppose it depends on what you define "successful", but the Z10 trumps it in units sold very easily. Also, the Passport SE is, according to an insider, a phone that was ordered by a carrier who then canceled the order - leaving BB with work already done on the new case. I'm sure BB collected some money for that work, essentially allowing the SE to be somewhat "subsidized" when they went ahead and put it into production (it's really only the case that's different - everything else is the same).

[brookie229]

Also, the Passport SE is, according to an insider, a phone that was ordered by a carrier who then canceled the order

I did not know this. Do you have a reference for this Troy. I am in no way questioning your knowledge on this because of your history and knowledge of all things cell, but I am just curious. Thanks.

[ubizmo]

Yeah the Passport is nowhere near the best selling BB10 phone, but it is very unique hardware. As an Android, it would be very differentiated, and the current Passport specs can easily handle it. I don't think it has mass appeal but could be a profitable niche in the Android universe.

If Android works okay on existing Passports, another production run with Android pre-installed wouldn't involve as much cost as developing a new device.

How does that add up to a case for making Android available on existing Passports? Only indirectly, as a way of getting as much of the user base on board with Android as possible. And yes, that's pretty thin.


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[Troy Tiscareno]

I did not know this. Do you have a reference for this Troy. I am in no way questioning your knowledge on this because of your history and knowledge of all things cell, but I am just curious. Thanks.

I read this on a couple of threads here. I have no way to confirm it "for real", but it definitely passes the "smell test".

[khampasong]

I suppose it depends on what you define "successful", but the Z10 trumps it in units sold very easily. Also, the Passport SE is, according to an insider, a phone that was ordered by a carrier who then canceled the order - leaving BB with work already done on the new case. I'm sure BB collected some money for that work, essentially allowing the SE to be somewhat "subsidized" when they went ahead and put it into production (it's really only the case that's different - everything else is the same).

I am curious about that statement too as it does invalidate my thinking. What I meant by "successful " was above breakeven.

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

I am curious about that statement too as it does invalidate my thinking. What I meant by "successful " was above breakeven.

No BB10 phone has broken even - every single one of them has created a loss. That's not so much a device issue (many of the devices were profitable if you only look at the costs of the parts and the manufacturing/distribution costs), but because BB hasn't been able to sell nearly enough of them. BB has to spend massive amounts of money to develop BB10, which has lots of costs many people don't realize or think about - the recent revelation about the high cost of QNX drivers for the components is something few had ever considered - and those are fixed costs, no matter if BB sells 1 phone or 100M phones.

That's why Chen stated that he needed to sell (approx.) 10M phones per year in order to break even - at 10M per year, the fixed costs of developing BB10 could have been spread across enough devices that the cost per device would have been low enough to match the gross profit of the device. And, so, selling more than 10M/year would have actually generated a profit for the smartphone division.

But BB is on track to sell about 4M phones in calendar 2015 (minus the Priv), which means that the division is running at a big loss this year - and they lost money in 2014, and lost a massive amount in 2013 (just the write-down alone was $4.4B!).

The only thing that's been keeping BB alive is the service revenues from BIS - something they have had no development costs for in years and that is nearly all profit. But BIS revenues have been dropping like a rock as the BBOS userbase has moved on to modern platforms.

The point is: BB10 as a whole has probably lost BB about $8B (my rough estimate) in cash when you balance everything out, including the gross profits from the phone sales, any revenue generated from BB World, etc. There's never been one cent of net profit, so by that measure, no BB10 phone has been successful.

[jsmith00075]

Troy, is it possible for another company to buy and use/build BB10 software?

[thurask]

Troy, is it possible for another company to buy and use/build BB10 software?

Heins tried that, no takers.

Posted via CB10

[jsmith00075]

Heins tried that, no takers.

Posted via CB10

It is doable though. I mean they might actually sell it (or they are interested in selling it).

[DrBoomBotz]

Utter nonsense
You ask the impossible.
It's one thing building a phone for BB10 and quite another to ask it to run android.

You bought a BB10 phone. BB10 isnt going anywhere. Why make foolish irrelevant requests?

Those are not requests, those are prayers. I guess that makes Bla1ze the guy with the big hat.

[Troy Tiscareno]

It is doable though. I mean they might actually sell it (or they are interested in selling it).

They'd love to sell BB10... but who in the world would buy it? BB has proven to the world that you can have a great mobile OS (and BB10 is that) and without a substantial ecosystem of native apps, it is DOA. Who would want to invest billions of dollars trying to build an ecosystem after watching BB lose billions trying to do so?

There's simply no business case for anyone to either license BB10 or buy it.

[jsmith00075]

They'd love to sell BB10... but who in the world would buy it? BB has proven to the world that you can have a great mobile OS (and BB10 is that) and without a substantial ecosystem of native apps, it is DOA. Who would want to invest billions of dollars trying to build an ecosystem after watching BB lose billions trying to do so?

There's simply no business case for anyone to either license BB10 or buy it.

How much did Heins try to sell it for?

[Troy Tiscareno]

How much did Heins try to sell it for?

Heins was trying to license BB10 at the time, not sell it - but at some point, he was trying to sell the whole company for $9/share or better, and couldn't get anyone to buy. Of course, with the stock around $6.50/share today, you can see why.

Today, BB is in a different place, and I'm sure they'd love to get $500M from BB10, and would happily sell it for that - but they probably couldn't get any interest in it above $100M, and perhaps not even that. (Again, just my own guesses - no inside knowledge).

[JeepBB]

How much did Heins try to sell it for?

I don't believe the amount was ever disclosed - probably because no serious buyer ever came on the scene to take it that far. Thor said a couple of times during the sale attempt that he was seeking licensing deals.

At the time you could have picked up the entire company - lock, stock and barrel - for $9/share. Can't recall exactly how much that was at the time... $7Bn? - there were a few rumoured tyre-kickers, but nobody bought.

A few months later BB declared a $4.4Bn(!) quarterly loss - most of it due to BB10 development and over-production of BB10 phones, so it's not really surprising that no buyer was found.

As Troy says: there's no business case for anyone buying/licensing BB10 when even BB can't succeed with it. I doubt they could give it away frankly - then or now.

[robsteve]

BlackBerry could do an upgrade path as they did in the past. Trade in your BB10 phone towards the Priv. BlackBerry then gets some cheap refurbs for their corporate/government customers, you get an Android phone.

[Plazmic Flame]

Why is BlackBerry held to these ridiculous expectations?

Google just puts an Easter Egg video/image/etc hidden in the about screen.... and Apple just keeps raising prices and calls it "magic!" but BlackBerry has to jump through fire-lit hoops...

[papped]

Doesn't that argument ignore the longer term benefit of retaining a customer? Someone who feels unfairly treated (rightly or wrongly) is extremely unlikely to buy anything else from that company so in this case BlackBerry could be losing out on future purchases from existing BB10 customers.

Posted via CB10

So basically you are describing BB as it is today... They already did this and are already feeling the effects.