02-07-13 06:24 AM
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  1. Tom689's Avatar
    I am definitely looking forward to the earnings call in late march
    RubberChicken76 likes this.
    02-06-13 02:06 PM
  2. VeGiTo's Avatar
    If the Storm sold 500.000 units worldwide in the first month, I think this is not so good news.
    You're not going to get insane numbers with only 2 markets and without the US. I think this is as good as it gets in Canada and UK.
    02-06-13 02:10 PM
  3. Neely2005's Avatar
    Also in the statement, 3x record in UK means it is 200% better than any launch in UK.

    Imagine replicating one of these numbers in the US.

    Just to give everybody some perspective, BlackBerry does NOT need to achieve Apple level volume to sky rocket. With only <5% market share last year, BBRY only needs to convert 1 in 10 iOS/Android buyers and their revenue will TRIPLE.
    Good point. I guess the UK launch was pretty good after all.
    02-06-13 02:20 PM
  4. cgk's Avatar
    The storm launched 5 years ago in a much smaller market, so to outsell that by 50% (if that was the top phone) on launch day doesn't actually tell us much. One of the key things to watch out for - if it's a massive seller for the carrier, they will always put out a press release. When the galaxy s3 was launched last year, phones4u put out a press release within 24 hours saying it was already their best selling phone of the year.
    02-06-13 02:25 PM
  5. southlander's Avatar
    if they are selling more phones at launch that any other point in thier history - even in their prime - then this is a good sign.
    if we keep hearing things like this as the phone launches in France, China, India, etc. how can this not be viewed as successful?
    Yes but without numbers it is hard to know. In BlackBerry's "prime" the total smartphone market was a fraction of what it is now. So this could be really good, or just so so.
    02-06-13 02:29 PM
  6. tiziano27's Avatar
    You're not going to get insane numbers with only 2 markets and without the US. I think this is as good as it gets in Canada and UK.
    At that moment US represented 65% of the sales, UK 8% and Canada 4.5%.

    Using these proportions, the Storm sales in the first month by market:
    UK: 40.000 units.
    Canada: 22.500 units.

    If z10 is 3xStorm in UK and 1.5xStorm in Canada, the projection for the first month of the z10:

    UK: 120.000
    Canada: 33.750

    That's not so good.
    02-06-13 02:30 PM
  7. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    If the Storm sold 500.000 units worldwide in the first month, I think this is not so good news.
    There was a lot of high expectations for the STORM originally. I wouldn't confuse how it sold with what people ended up thinking of it in the end. Verizon and a lot of the Canadian carriers put a lot of marketing muscle behind it relative to any BlackBerry I've seen since
    02-06-13 02:31 PM
  8. ccbs's Avatar
    Why not just release the danm numbers? It will give everyone an impression of being confidence in the product and damping down the negative noise. Well, if the beleaguered Apple can do it, why not Blackberry?
    02-06-13 02:37 PM
  9. bk1022's Avatar
    Why not just release the danm numbers? It will give everyone an impression of being confidence in the product and damping down the negative noise. Well, if the beleaguered Apple can do it, why not Blackberry?
    ... I guess they leave it to the reader to figure out why they have not released sales numbers ...
    richardat likes this.
    02-06-13 02:47 PM
  10. 19GhostRider71's Avatar
    Reports are coming in now that stores in the UK were not selling out as Thor was stating.
    02-06-13 02:50 PM
  11. Zarpan's Avatar
    At that moment US represented 65% of the sales, UK 8% and Canada 4.5%.

    Using these proportions, the Storm sales in the first month by market:
    UK: 40.000 units.
    Canada: 22.500 units.

    If z10 is 3xStorm in UK and 1.5xStorm in Canada, the projection for the first month of the z10:

    UK: 120.000
    Canada: 33.750

    That's not so good.
    That is assuming that the Storm remained the best-selling launch of any BlackBerry product until now. They didn't say that they sold 3x as much as the Storm did, but rather 3x their next best selling launch week in the UK.
    02-06-13 02:55 PM
  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Yes but without numbers it is hard to know. In BlackBerry's "prime" the total smartphone market was a fraction of what it is now. So this could be really good, or just so so.
    Exactly!

    Journalists love to talk about shrinking marketshare. It's not as exciting to say, "the number of BlackBerry users was 10.5 million when the iPhone came out and 79 million now". Doesn't have the same negative oomph
    02-06-13 03:01 PM
  13. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Reports are coming in now that stores in the UK were not selling out as Thor was stating.
    Weren't the reports based upon "we called two stores and talked to customer service"? Did they get more in?
    02-06-13 03:01 PM
  14. richardat's Avatar
    Exactly!

    Journalists love to talk about shrinking marketshare. It's not as exciting to say, "the number of BlackBerry users was 10.5 million when the iPhone came out and 79 million now". Doesn't have the same negative oomph
    Well in large part that's because many articles are talking about - and many investors/consumers are interested in - how the company is doing NOW. Which is better represented by marketshare. They are interested in: how many is the company selling now, now how many have they sold in the past. Moreover, when comparing to competitors, marketshare is vital, as a measure of current success and used as inference to the future.
    RubberChicken76 likes this.
    02-06-13 03:09 PM
  15. Zarpan's Avatar
    ... I guess they leave it to the reader to figure out why they have not released sales numbers ...
    The inevitable headline would be that Apple sold 5 million iPhones in the first weekend, while BlackBerry sold a fraction of that. Even if the launch was a massively stunning success, their numbers are still going to pale vs. the iPhone's, so why play that game? It makes more sense to compare it to their old numbers, where if they can get their sales in developed countries (units not even marketshare) to where it was during their last major launch (BB7), they'll be in very good shape.
    drummer_god, VeGiTo and Vorkosigan like this.
    02-06-13 03:12 PM
  16. kelexiong's Avatar
    I just want to point out that Blackberry's handset shipments have been declining for some time now. They sold 6.9 million handsets in the prior quarter, but a year ago, they were selling 14 million handsets in the quarter. I don't buy the argument that because the smartphone market was smaller in the past, the +50% number isn't meaningful. I think this is an extremely good sign for Blackberry.
    drummer_god likes this.
    02-06-13 03:16 PM
  17. OMGitworks's Avatar
    JMHO - but they won't release raw numbers any time soon. As soon as they do, they will be compared to the iPhone and it will be broadcast as a failure as it will be a fraction of the raw # of iThing sales.
    drummer_god likes this.
    02-06-13 03:17 PM
  18. Zarpan's Avatar
    Well in large part that's because many articles are talking about - and many investors/consumers are interested in - how the company is doing NOW. Which is better represented by marketshare. They are interested in: how many is the company selling now, now how many have they sold in the past. Moreover, when comparing to competitors, marketshare is vital, as a measure of current success and used as inference to the future.
    At least for investors, marketshare isn't hugely important for BlackBerry at this point in time beyond beat Windows Phone and get 5+% in marketshare going forward. If BB10 represents 4% of global smartphone sales over the next year, it will be a resounding success and would mean the company is making billions of dollars in earnings.
    02-06-13 03:31 PM
  19. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Well in large part that's because many articles are talking about - and many investors/consumers are interested in - how the company is doing NOW. Which is better represented by marketshare. They are interested in: how many is the company selling now, now how many have they sold in the past. Moreover, when comparing to competitors, marketshare is vital, as a measure of current success and used as inference to the future.
    Oh for sure ... good leading indicator. Where it gets dicey is when the journalist doesn't understand the metric or doesn't explain it.

    I just read Eric Zeman talking about Windows Phone. According to an analyst, Windows Phone sold better than BlackBerry in the US last quarter. But the way it was conveyed was that Windows Phone is now the "third biggest ecosystem". The question becomes - are there more Windows Phone users than BlackBerry in the U.S. now or are they mixing up quarterly sales of marketshare vs. active userbase?
    02-06-13 03:35 PM
  20. cgk's Avatar
    Reports are coming in now that stores in the UK were not selling out as Thor was stating.
    He was very careful in his word - the 'white' sold out but that seemed to be highly limited in quantity anyway, the black was 'hard to stock' (undersupply?).
    02-06-13 03:50 PM
  21. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    I am definitely looking forward to the earnings call in late march
    Like Nokia and Windows Phone, that's where the real answers are going to come from.
    02-06-13 03:55 PM
  22. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    He was very careful in his word - the 'white' sold out but that seemed to be highly limited in quantity anyway, the black was 'hard to stock' (undersupply?).
    He also wasn't the only one saying that. Wasn't Peter Misek (long negative on Blackberry) the first?
    02-06-13 03:55 PM
  23. richardat's Avatar
    I just want to point out that Blackberry's handset shipments have been declining for some time now. They sold 6.9 million handsets in the prior quarter, but a year ago, they were selling 14 million handsets in the quarter. I don't buy the argument that because the smartphone market was smaller in the past, the +50% number isn't meaningful. I think this is an extremely good sign for Blackberry.
    I don't think anyone is saying that. What we ARE saying is that 50% more of X is ambiguous. It is troubling that X may actually be quite small considering the size of the market in the past, but until we get any concrete numbers there simply is no way to be sure of anything.
    kelexiong likes this.
    02-06-13 06:30 PM
  24. richardat's Avatar
    Oh for sure ... good leading indicator. Where it gets dicey is when the journalist doesn't understand the metric or doesn't explain it.

    I just read Eric Zeman talking about Windows Phone. According to an analyst, Windows Phone sold better than BlackBerry in the US last quarter. But the way it was conveyed was that Windows Phone is now the "third biggest ecosystem". The question becomes - are there more Windows Phone users than BlackBerry in the U.S. now or are they mixing up quarterly sales of marketshare vs. active userbase?
    Well on that we agree - if he indeed used the statistic that way. I haven't seen it blatantly misused (though I've seen many examples where the READER could misinterpret it!). One other thing that is problematic however for RIM now is that, in terms of installed base, they are starting over at 0, given the complete break in platform! Quite frankly, it would be in their best interest to use deceptive stats on that front! As of now, there are many more Windows users than BB10. Blech...every time I even say windows I feel like I should spit. (woolerton!)

    Only a Canadian even has even a 10% chance of understanding the last reference.
    02-06-13 06:34 PM
  25. Neely2005's Avatar
    The storm launched 5 years ago in a much smaller market, so to outsell that by 50% (if that was the top phone) on launch day doesn't actually tell us much. One of the key things to watch out for - if it's a massive seller for the carrier, they will always put out a press release. When the galaxy s3 was launched last year, phones4u put out a press release within 24 hours saying it was already their best selling phone of the year.
    Rogers already put out a press release saying that yesterday they sold/activated the most BlackBerry devices in their history.

    Rogers is the biggest Carrier in Canada.
    southlander likes this.
    02-06-13 09:32 PM
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