[Berryman]

Here's a well written article predicting the end of the dominance of the Blackberry handheld.
Source:
Blackberry Meltdown Coming Soon - Five Reasons RIM Popularity Will Peak This Year*|*Gear Diary

This morning, as I’m reading news that the 3G Blackberry may be delayed so as not to collide with the 3G iPhone launch, I became convinced that Blackberry’s lengthy run atop the food chain of corporate mobile devices is ending. Why would I think that? Here’s 5 reasons that Blackberry device usage will peak in 2008 never to return to these heights again

I have several reasons for believing that the Blackberry “Cinderella Story” is going to gradually skid to a halt.

The major downside to Blackberry use is that many casual users don’t realize that to activate a Blackberry you must choose two cellular service plans — one voice plan plus a mandatory pricey Blackberry plan (and , yes, people do report being able to bypass the second restriction but the usability of the device is severely limited).

Some of you are saying that corporations don’t care about such expenses and just pay the bill in exchange for solid service. Maybe. But has anyone noticed we’re in the midst of a recession? Also each RIM press release touts the rapid growth that is coming from their consumer devices - NOT the corporate.

From the latest RIM Earnings Report as reported in the Financial Post on April 4, 2008:

During Wednesday’s conference call, co-chief executive Jim Balsillie mentioned how more than half of the new BlackBerry subscribers came from “non-enterprise” sectors, helped in part by a number of consumer-friendly offerings. RIM expects that lucrative subscriber base to grow past its current rate of 38% of total users with next quarter’s subscription base growth of 2.2 million customers.

“Consumer sales continue to move higher given the significant retail programs and national ad campaigns that are taking place,” said National Bank Financial analyst Deepak Chopra. “RIM indicated that this is expected to continue.”

Consumers DO care a lot about cost. Which is why the following 5 issues will, I believe, lead to a slowdown in RIM Blackberry market share.

Reason #1: I’m Seriously Thinking Of Junking My Blackberry and Going iPhone Only
This by itself doesn’t predict anything. Heck, I rarely use any phone longer than 6 months. But my Blackberry device has been on my hip since 1990. For 18 years this has been my main email, calendar, task and contact management.

The Blackberry allure started to fade in January when I bought up an iPhone - more out of curiosity than any desire to replace my Blackberry 8320.

That’s when I discovered reason #2 that people will ditch Blackberries.

Reason #2: The Browser Sucks
In the 18 year of using a Blackberry, the only resolution to this cruddy browser have been the suggestions to “use Opera”.

I’ve tried Opera and I guess it’s ok - but why shouldn’t RIM have a beefed up web browser by now. Sadly I don’t think much is going to change in “browser land” with the next iteration of the Blackberry. At least if something is on tap, nobody’s talking or demonstrating it.

It’s unbelievable, and almost negligent, that RIM have failed to improve their browser. Haven’t they watched the marketplace and the move to web based applications?

Reason #3: Push Email is No Longer A Mystery
I cancelled my BES (Blackberry Enterprise Server) about 6 months ago and went 100% with Google Mail and a less expensive ($19) Blackberry Internet Service. This pushes email out instantly to my 8320.

The Google imap setup was automatic. I receive Google Mail on my iPhone as well, it’s not instant but I’m betting it will be once iPhone attacks the corporate market. Once the corporate users get a look at free push email - the decision about whether to continue paying $40/user for BES connections or move to free push mail on an iPhone (or similar) is going to be easy to make.

Reason #4: BES is No Longer Needed To Sync: Calendar, Tasks, Contacts
RIM makes a lot of profit by selling additional plans to those using Blackberry’s. For anyone who purchased a Blackberry you’ll now what I’m talking about. To receive service via Blackberry requires a monthly cell phone plan PLUS a mandatory Blackberry data plan (pricing starts at an additional $19 per month for Blackberry Internet Service and $39 per month for the corporate Blackberry Enterprise Service)

Look what is already available for free that bypasses the need for the more expensive corporate BES service (which used to cost me an additional $40 on top of my $60 voice plan).

My point here? If these are available for the Blackberry - how long do you think it will take for them to reach the iPhone? At the point where they reach the iPhone - how many people will want to keep paying that monthly Blackberry specific service fee?

Tip: Free Blackberry Services That I Use To Avoid Paying RIM $40 for their more expensive BES (Blackberry Entrprise Service) - instead I save 50% and pay only $19 for the BIS (Blackberry Internet Service)

Push Email: Google iMap pushes direct to the Blackberry - soon I predict it will do other devices as well
Calendar Sync: Google Mobile
Task Sync: RememberTheMilk - MilkSync for Blackberry
Contacts Sync: This part isn’t yet available for the Blackberry - but look what Spanning Sync has for the Mac and it’s not hard to see that with the Google Contacts API made available to developers that other versions will follow.

Reason # 5: Third Party Applications Are Sparse (but getting better) and the broad market acceptance of the iPhone will gnaw away at the will of new developers to specialize in BlackberryBlackberry’s strong suit has never been third party applications. This is starting to change and more developers are writing for Blackberry. Once the iPhone developers release cool third party applications and dwarf the sparse number available for the Blackberry, I predict you’ll see a lot of users making a switch.

These reasons by themselves don’t mean that Blackberrys are going away tomorrow. I do think that taken together they point to an interesting possible scenario of declining Blackberry popularity.

All of the reasons that I’ve carried a Blackberry for 18 years are suddenly disappearing. I think these trends are going to continue for the rest of 2008. With the introduction of the iPhone 3G combined with third party iPhone development - the Blackberry will never see the lofty heights (financial and popularity) that it enjoys today.

Source:
Blackberry Meltdown Coming Soon - Five Reasons RIM Popularity Will Peak This Year*|*Gear Diary

[hutch34]

The probelm with iphone dominance is really the keyboard. I've use the iphone and while the on screen keyboard isn't horrible- its no where near as fast as my bb.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[Berryman]

The probelm with iphone dominance is really the keyboard. I've use the iphone and while the on screen keyboard isn't horrible- its no where near as fast as my bb.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

Yes, I agree, but for Apple to design a new or alternative iPhone model with some form of easy to use physical keyboard is hardly unimagineable.

[Blacklatino]

18 years. That's a long time to utilize a product. You have an interesting point of view about the future of BlackBerries. Like other corporations, I do believe RIM is going to eventually peak. I don't think it will be anytime soon. We'll see how long it takes for future OS updates and if the newer berry models are actually going to continue to create an impact on the market.

[hutch34]

Yeah, I don't know, I don't see apple creating a keyboard any time soon- but I guess its not impossible! Only time will tell! But for now I'm content with my bb. Although- if they did come out with something I definitely wouldn't rule It out!

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[hutch34]

I meant a keyboard clad iphone! Sorry haha, they already make keyboards

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[CrackBlack]

Like anything else, there are Peaks and Valleys in every aspect of life. In any business, competition is always good. And, with Apple nipping on the heels of RIM, only they RIM can determine their future. Only time and RIM will tell what's in the future.

[ScandaLeX]

The iPhone and Blackberry, IMO, are 2 totally different devices that meet different needs. I'm sure they both do things equally well. My experience comes from having owned an iPhone; not a BB yet.

1st of all, lets look at how long the iPhone has been available- not long. BB has been around for a very long time. In order to do 1/4 of the things that can be done on most phones, the iPhone had to be jailbroken. But what about those people that aren't technically savvy and dont know how to jailbrake? Those folks are stuck, either by their own will, or lack of knowledge, with what Apple wants them to have.

The iPhone was fun for a little while- and thats the best I can call it- fun. For productivity, I need a lot more than that. I dont want to sound like I am bashing the iPhone, on the contrary. I just dont see where a BB and iPhone can be compared against each other- especially considering that the iPhone is NOT the first touch screen phone.

[IrishJK09]

I would go back to an iPhone. Yes, if you read any of my other posts on this subject, you see that I am fairly harsh on it, but I would go back if the following happens:

1. The email client actually becomes reliable. During the 6 months I used an iPhone, for at least 4 out of 7 days, my email would stop auto checking. I would get up and going by 8, realize I had not received ANY mail around 2, do a manual check and be slammed with 15-20 new messages. Granted, I personally never missed anything important, but it COULD have happened, and that is HUGE to me.

2. Where is the damned MMS? Not everyone carries a BlackBerry, iPhone, or Windows Mobile phone, and not everyone has a data package and email sync. I thoroughly enjoy being able to send a picture of my son to my wife, or receiving a goofy .gif image from a friend. The iPhone kills this.

3. Allow more than 1 attachment per email. Yes, for those that do not know, the iPhone restricts you to 1 attachment per email... Only pictures as well. Let me send and receive videos, let me send 10 pictures to my brother out of state...

4. Loosen up on the damned iTunes requirements. There is no reason why I shouldn't be able to delete pictures, movies, and songs from my device while I am on the move. Needing iTunes to do pretty much ANYTHING gets old... fast...

5. Considering you, Apple, were stupid enough to omit cut and paste from a device that could so EASILY adopt it, you could at least let me put a phone number in the notes of an appointment in the calendar and just let me press it to call. Why do I need to recopy it to paper, or memorize it, so I can switch to the phone app and call it?

6. Read the above. Where in the world is the cut and paste?

7. The keyboard is a rough spot, but it works pretty decently when in landscape mode, so why in the world do you only allow for landscape typing in Safari? Why not email, why not SMS, why not Notes? Seriously!!!

8. Ok, where is my To-Do list? I have a nice Mac at home with iCal installed on it, the parent app for the iCal app that is on the iPhone, and it has a To-Do list. That being the case, why does the phone not have a To-Do list of its own?? I should not have to make a false appointment in the calendar to compile a damned to-do/task list!!

9. Can we please CHOOSE the style of the Notepad? I mean seriously, the pen on paper, cartoony look is kind of charming, but it would be nice to have something a bit more professional looking from time to time. (Ok, this one is nitpicking, and I am only half serious about it...)

10. Let me save my email picture attachments to the phone, as well as web images!! I have GIGS of free space, let me use it!! (This is supposedly coming with firmware update 2.0)

11. Give me all that, AND 3G with the SAME battery life as the current iPhone. I see a lot of people complain about the iPhone battery life, and I don't understand it. It was by far the best battery I have ever had on a phone, and even bested all of the BlackBerrys I have ever owned. I could web surf for 2 hours, talk for 2 hours, poll my email every 15 minutes (when it worked), listen to music for 3-4 hours, and watch 30 minutes to an hour of video; and still have 30-40% left on my battery. So, give me those same results with a 3G chip! (Ok, that may be asking a lot...)

12. Please ease up on the ringtone rules. I would like to first be able to change my alert sounds to more than the built in sounds. Mmmkay.. thanks. Second, I would like to be able to make any damned song on the device into a ringtone. I should not have to buy a song TWICE to make it a ringtone. If I went through the trouble of first ripping a CD to iTunes, then converted the rip into .m4a format, and then synced it to my phone, I should be able to cut that song down and use it as a ringtone. I should not have to buy the specially marked "ringtone capable" songs from iTunes for a buck, and then pay another buck to cut it to size and use it as a ringtone. (I know there are "ways around this," but I don't think I should have to break the rules to do something as simple as this.)

Ok, I think I am done... Make these changes and I will buy an iPhone again.

[garbagefairy1967]

Well I have no plans of jumping on the iphone bandwagon, I will support rim for a long time to come....

[crackvegas78]

The point about BIS is not really a good one. When you get an Iphone you have to get the iphone data pack with it as well, I know that it has wifi but what about when I need my web say in the car. Also the single tasking of the apple os would never work for me, I have 5 apps running in the bg at all times. And last but not least price of the iphone, RIM gave the company I work for Curves and 8800's for 75.00 bucks a pop, don't see apple doing that anytime soon

[crackvegas78]

Well I have no plans of jumping on the iphone bandwagon, I will support rim for a long time to come....

Ya what she said

[brownieangel23]

I'm tried the Iphone and I know for a fact I won't be leaving my bb. Also with any smart phone there is a need to subscribe to an addt'l data plan.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[anon(375378)]

I just can't drink from that barrel of Kool-aid like everyone else.
I can't stand anything branded by Apple.

[mab4285]

Ok...here's my thing...when you add unlimited texting like I have on my BB plan to the iPhone plan, they pretty much are the same price!

[boomerbsg]

i have a few problems here. the op mentions a recession in the works.. have you seen the pricetag of the iphone that you have to lay down in order to get one?
either $499 down then after that you activate it and thats when you select your plan. and you have to sign for a 2 year contract.
or $399 and the same stipulations as above.

right now i can order a bb 8130 refurb with no money down and a 2 year contract from at&t. or a new 8130 for $149 down.
heck on my 3 line family plan i'm paying a whopping $10 more a month than i was before i added my bb and the basic service.. oh thats so expensive

i'm a huge fan of the iphone.. just look at some of my other posts. but heres the fun part. i work for a very nice country club. and from last year on, i see a ton of wealthy individuals carrying bb's. and a good deal of them left palm for the bb. and when i ask why they say that the bb is more reliable and works better for them. these are people who own their own businesses or people who just know how to use the bb to its fullest. and recently more of the average joe gets to have them too, thanks in part to the pricing/data plans offered.

i recently worked a 1000 person petroleum engineer golf tournament. i honestly coudnt believe the amount of bb's i saw. and how many people i heard talking about, and bragging about their bb's. and even some of them stopping me and asking me how i liked my pearl while they show me their world edition models, beaming with pride.

and RIM is also coming out with a touch screen model too. i cant wait to see it.
right now... bounce for ounce for what it does the bb cant be touched by any palm or windows mobile device imo. and the iphone cant be touched by any of the others as it does things the others cant.

and who ever hopes apple will change their itunes logic, and software restrictions... wont happen.. they may bend a bit, but they wont out right change. apple will always dictate to you the end user/customer what you can and cant do with your hardware. anyone remember when they told customers around the holidays they couldnt buy more than 2 iphones and they needed a credit card to do it?

if the OP wants to leave bb's for an iphone.. so be it, but coming up with personal reasons, and insights that don't quite mesh with whats really happening in the world around us, and without whipping out a calculator and doing the math isn't very smart. you need a data plan with any mobile phone/device you use.. period. and the base plan for anything decent is around $20-$30.. thats why BB/phone carriers introduced the lower priced alternative.

its not cheaper to buy an iphone, the iphone is not geared towards business users, and people looking for a low price reliable phone, that doesnt equate to carrying a small flat brick in your pocket daily.
a person sitting in a meeting can quickly text someone on a bb without drawing much attention to themselves.. but no so with an iphone.

again i'd like to state, i like the iphone, and i like the bb's. and if sprint would have had an iphone.. i probably would have one now instead of my bb... but to discount bb and say they have hit their peak based on personal reasons doesnt float with me to well.

no offense was meant by this post to the OP or any other commenter's, the views expressed here are my own opinions, and arent meant to reflect those of any living creature but me. if you have taken offense... tuff.. no wait.. i mean sorry

cheers

[CrackBlack]

Lets get back to the topic of RIM in a Meltdown!
Now ask the questions
1) Is RIM aware of Apple targeting it's Market ... YES
2) Has RIM been sitting on it laurels .... you be the judge
3) Is RIM market share on a flat line ... definitely No! they just got into China and India (Nations with the largest population)
4) Do you think the competition hasn't set the Creative Juices at RIM in overdrive ... ?????
For any Business to remain on the Top, they must embrace Competition with open arms.
I have no fear of RIM melting down because of the competition.

[reeneebob]

I just can't drink from that barrel of Kool-aid like everyone else.
I can't stand anything branded by Apple.

See, I don't understand this. For a long time I swore I would never have an iPod - I had a Creative Zen. Then I got a Muvo for on the go listening, and it went buggy so I got a flash Zen and IT was buggy out of the box, went back and exchanged it for a 2Gen Nano...and then got a 3Gen Nano, a 80Gig Classic and for Christmas a Touch. I have to give credit where it's due, Apple simply kills all other MP3 players, and the design esthetic is superb.

Why I wanted a Touch? In Canada the iPhone will only be with Rogers and I will never, ever go to them for Wireless again. Also the first release had some drawbacks I had read about (like with any first run iPod) and the Touch had everything but the phone...which was allegedly the buggy part. Also it was expensive compared to other Smartphones. I love my Pearl, I really do, but the whole "I hate Apple because it's Apple" thing was something I partook of as well until I used one, and I have to give credit where it's due - like I wouldn't go to another phone manufacturer other than BB at this point (which, hey could always change) I will never have another MP3 player from another manufacturer than Apple. My 2 cents. /thread hijack

In regards to the article in the OP? Some of that stuff is really nitpicky. I don't think the iPhone is at all comparable to a BB, in that they are both smartphones but one is definitely more business geared and the iPhone is geared to individual casual users. I mean I am the first to say I am a casual user (another reason I went with the Pearl over the Curve) but I just feel like the author is comparing two different things, like comparing a Dodge Caliber to a Ram full ton truck for construction work.

[anon(375378)]

See, I don't understand this. For a long time I swore I would never have an iPod - I had a Creative Zen. Then I got a Muvo for on the go listening, and it went buggy so I got a flash Zen and IT was buggy out of the box, went back and exchanged it for a 2Gen Nano...and then got a 3Gen Nano, a 80Gig Classic and for Christmas a Touch. I have to give credit where it's due, Apple simply kills all other MP3 players, and the design esthetic is superb.

Why I wanted a Touch? In Canada the iPhone will only be with Rogers and I will never, ever go to them for Wireless again. Also the first release had some drawbacks I had read about (like with any first run iPod) and the Touch had everything but the phone...which was allegedly the buggy part. Also it was expensive compared to other Smartphones. I love my Pearl, I really do, but the whole "I hate Apple because it's Apple" thing was something I partook of as well until I used one, and I have to give credit where it's due - like I wouldn't go to another phone manufacturer other than BB at this point (which, hey could always change) I will never have another MP3 player from another manufacturer than Apple. My 2 cents. /thread hijack

In regards to the article in the OP? Some of that stuff is really nitpicky. I don't think the iPhone is at all comparable to a BB, in that they are both smartphones but one is definitely more business geared and the iPhone is geared to individual casual users. I mean I am the first to say I am a casual user (another reason I went with the Pearl over the Curve) but I just feel like the author is comparing two different things, like comparing a Dodge Caliber to a Ram full ton truck for construction work.

Now, I didn't say it wasn't a good product for those that like Apple. I voiced my opinion. "I" don't like "mac's either but I'm sure they work well for those that like them.

"I" don't like Apple products. That's all.

[lil_sunshine]

Microsoft is gunning for RIM even more than Apple. They have just announced an update to their exchange server apps that will allow companies to support mobile devices in-house.

So, Microsoft is making life easier for network administrators and giving them more control over their mobile devices on the one hand. And, the manufactures are making devices that look remarkable like Blackberries (see Sprint's Q9c). To me, this is the real threat for RIM. Because now administrators can switch the company over to Microsoft devices and give the executives devices that are similar enough to Blackberries that they won't notice or care. And, if they do, they'll be happy about the money they are saving.

[Jackal]

I agree with #5. Besides that I'm good.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[BB7290grl74]

Well the author of the article missed the fact that truly utilize any data capable handheld you need a data plan. Otherwise the handheld does not reach its full potential. Obviously this guy fell into the iphone trap. People will go with what they like, its that simple. I for one will not trade my BB for a toonish iphone because I am pleased with my BBs form and functionality. As for Rim not stepping up to match some of the iphones features has anyone checked out the 9000 yet?

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[hutch34]

I agree with whoever posted above, that the iphone and bb's really are just two different devices- they both have thir strenghts and. Drawbacks. But I think for business use the bb is so much more practical than an iphone could be- but for entertainment the iphone could be better. I'm only a consumer end user- but I message a lot, so I really wanted a physical keyboard to get my messages out faster, its just easier for me. I have nothing against the iphone, I think they're great and I own many other apple products, but the bb just works better for my personal needs, and I think anybody who needs hardcore email and messaging is better off with a bb.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[SLVR6]

The pricing of the "Blackberry data" plans makes no sense considering you are required (by att the only authorized iPhone provider) to have a data plan, it just happens to be built into the plan cost, not separate like BB's. iPhone is a cool device, would I ever buy one, no. BB is hands down the best as far as email security and reliability. I am seeing a bunch of guys at work (6-10) switching from their iPhones and WinMo devices to BB's simply because of the dead reliable push email without needing all the other junk.

Comments about BIS vs BES are interesting and I think BES usage is certainly dropping some. For larger companies though that know how to use and take advantage of it, it is still useful. I am constantly showing my IT admins new stuff they can do with BES (even though I have been off it for 6 months).

[reeneebob]

It was me who mentioned the Iphone VS BB for business or casual...and I agree that for someone who is hardcore with emailing/texting etc for business the Iphone would be lacking. My Ipod Touch is awesome, I love it, but it annoys me that to make a note etc the touch keyboard doesn't allow the change to landscape (more spread out) display like it does when you are browsing. That would annoy me if I was using it for business. For casual browsing, absolutely the Iphone would be fine, but I went with the Touch simply for not having the perks of the Iphone without the costs of the Iphone. I told myself 6 months ago I would never have a BB either, I didn't see a need, but using my Touch as a PDA device (freeing up purse space from my old Dayrunner I still used religiously) and then the calamities that happened to my phones led me to try a BB and I doubt I will ever go back to a regular phone. Even with limited data (at least until Bell catches up with Telus and offers an Unlimited Data plan, shockingly for $10 less a month than Bell's $40 per month 8MB plan) the BB function is outstanding. I really don't think RIM should be too worried about Apple at this juncture. Now, if Apple brought out a BB type device, no touchscreen, or Microsoft does what they are planning?

Then they should worry.